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Post by incandenza on Jul 9, 2022 12:01:48 GMT -5
Say, ain't it about time for the annual trade deadline gallimaufry thread? I consider these to be persons of interest: 3. Josh Bell 5. Frankie Montas 6. Tyler Mahle
11. Trey Mancini 23. Ian Happ 37. Blake Snell 38. Mike Clevinger
Some other additions would be nice fits but I'm scared of what they'd cost: Luis Castillo, David Robertson, and some other, lesser bullpen arms that wouldn't cost that much and yet would still cost too much.
Christian Walker is only mentioned as an "other of note," and CJ Cron isn't mentioned at all for some reason. All in all it strikes me as not a very deep list.
I would pass on Mahle and Montas considering that they are on the IL with a shoulder issues and the Sox have plenty of depth there I hear ya, but I like what that might do to their asking prices. Also they'd both be relatively cheap additions to the pitching depth for 2023 - cheaper, better replacements for Eovaldi, essentially.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,653
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Post by cdj on Jul 9, 2022 12:08:01 GMT -5
I would buy low on Snell
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Post by incandenza on Jul 9, 2022 12:11:10 GMT -5
Without looking it up, anyone want to guess what Dalbec's wRC+ has been over the past month?
How 'bout since May 14th?
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Post by manfred on Jul 9, 2022 12:19:27 GMT -5
Without looking it up, anyone want to guess what Dalbec's wRC+ has been over the past month? How 'bout since May 14th? Did his meaningless home run yesterday help?
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Post by cba82 on Jul 9, 2022 12:27:13 GMT -5
Without looking it up, anyone want to guess what Dalbec's wRC+ has been over the past month? How 'bout since May 14th? Did his meaningless home run yesterday help? His homer could have been meaningful had the Red Sox thrown a credible major league pitcher to start the game, and had other batters hit the ball when they had the chance. Context matters.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 9, 2022 12:28:15 GMT -5
Radical centrism: I say include his meaningless HR last night, and his April performance.
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Post by manfred on Jul 9, 2022 12:33:10 GMT -5
Obviously I’m not really saying it doesn’t *count* — my point is, in anticipation of a “surprise, his numbers aren’t bad!” moment, that, yup, he’s bad.
Add:
He’s hardly alone. Franchy is at 0 bWAR. After that, you have Verdugo, Arroyo, Bobby, and JBJ, all of whom are negative and getting significant time. Plawecki, too. Not a blame issue, but it is amazing that nearly half the lineup has been worthless this season and they are still in contention.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 9, 2022 12:42:04 GMT -5
Radical centrism: I say include his meaningless HR last night, and his April performance. Anyone want to guess what Dalbec's career wRC+ is?
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Post by incandenza on Jul 9, 2022 12:48:17 GMT -5
Haha, I just saw the highlight of Arroyo's play in the outfield last night. I don't think there's any way around the conclusion that RF was a roster construction fail. Whatever value JBJ has as a defender has been completely lost thanks to their playing an out-of-position infielder there because the team doesn't consider JBJ an everyday player and has no better contingency plan.
JBJ DRS/OAA in RF: +6/+3 Arroyo DRS/OAA in RF: -5/-4 (in only 108 innings!)
We've gotten mediocre defense and horrible offense at the position.
Mostly Bloom is to blame here, I think, but there are a number of configurations I would go with before putting Arroyo in RF, and that's on Cora.
---- ADD: How bad has Arroyo been? The most gobsmackingly horrendous outfield defensive performance I've seen in my life was Hanley's adventure as a LFer in 2015. He had a -14 DRS in 747 innings. Arroyo, were he to get that many innings, would be on pace for -35.
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Post by manfred on Jul 9, 2022 12:56:20 GMT -5
Radical centrism: I say include his meaningless HR last night, and his April performance. Anyone want to guess what Dalbec's career wRC+ is? 104? But trending the wrong way?
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 9, 2022 12:58:14 GMT -5
A standard 3/2/1 weighting of his last three seasons gets you 97 wRC+
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Post by incandenza on Jul 9, 2022 12:58:56 GMT -5
Anyone want to guess what Dalbec's career wRC+ is? 104? But trending the wrong way? Not since May 14th.
Listen, his wRC+ is in the mid-110s since mid-May, or 103 since June 1st if you want a less cherry-picked date. That's not actually good for a first baseman who has benefiteed from selective matchups, but I was surprised he's been even that good, and it suggests the team can get by with a Franchy/Dalbec platoon if they have to. In re: my comment above, I think RF is the bigger problem.
It also suggests that a return to his late summer 2021 form is not completely out of the question...
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Post by manfred on Jul 9, 2022 13:02:27 GMT -5
104? But trending the wrong way? Not since May 14th. Serious question: are you making the case that Bobby is not, you know, pretty worthless? Or is this just a statistical point of interest?
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Post by incandenza on Jul 9, 2022 13:05:21 GMT -5
Not since May 14th. Serious question: are you making the case that Bobby is not, you know, pretty worthless? Or is this just a statistical point of interest? See my edit above.
I am very sorry for trying to add nuance to the general anti-Dalbec groupthink, and will report to the re-education camp immediately.
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Post by manfred on Jul 9, 2022 13:12:02 GMT -5
Serious question: are you making the case that Bobby is not, you know, pretty worthless? Or is this just a statistical point of interest? See my edit above.
I am very sorry for trying to add nuance to the general anti-Dalbec groupthink, and will report to the re-education camp immediately.
No, your edit seems totally fair. Nuance allowed!
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Post by billw on Jul 9, 2022 13:26:54 GMT -5
Dalbec .200ba--6hr at 200ab and below Ave defense so how does the term worthless not fit?
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Post by Guidas on Jul 9, 2022 13:29:57 GMT -5
Say, ain't it about time for the annual trade deadline gallimaufry thread? I consider these to be persons of interest: 3. Josh Bell 5. Frankie Montas 6. Tyler Mahle
11. Trey Mancini 23. Ian Happ 37. Blake Snell 38. Mike Clevinger
Some other additions would be nice fits but I'm scared of what they'd cost: Luis Castillo, David Robertson, and some other, lesser bullpen arms that wouldn't cost that much and yet would still cost too much.
Christian Walker is only mentioned as an "other of note," and CJ Cron isn't mentioned at all for some reason. All in all it strikes me as not a very deep list.
I would be game to trade anyone not named Mayer, Casas, Rafaela, Bello or Mata for the guys in bold (not sure about Yorke, whether he's still trying to adjust, playing through that injury or just not what so many people thought he was last year, but if the right deal comes along...). I'd also be more than happy to move Bello and Mata straight up for Castillo, though I'm sure that's not enough. I'd also keep a close eye on the White Sox and Giants. If either is 4 or more out of the Wild Card by the last week of July they may become sellers. Rodon and Pederson could fit well in Boston.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 9, 2022 14:06:12 GMT -5
Why are the Padres trading Snell at all(let alone at the bottom of his value)? I guess it’s nice to see a new Padres rumor on here that you isn’t about Wil Myers or Hosmer, but it doesn’t make much sense.
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Post by benzinger on Jul 9, 2022 14:08:57 GMT -5
Obviously I’m not really saying it doesn’t *count* — my point is, in anticipation of a “surprise, his numbers aren’t bad!” moment, that, yup, he’s bad. Add: He’s hardly alone. Franchy is at 0 bWAR. After that, you have Verdugo, Arroyo, Bobby, and JBJ, all of whom are negative and getting significant time. Plawecki, too. Not a blame issue, but it is amazing that nearly half the lineup has been worthless this season and they are still in contention. They aren’t REALLY in “contention”, though. They are the 4th best team in their own division. It is only because of MLB’s absurd new playoff arrangement that they are not in the midst of a rebuild.
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Post by manfred on Jul 9, 2022 14:11:51 GMT -5
Mata and Rafaela for Castillo. Done.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 9, 2022 14:23:26 GMT -5
Dalbec .200ba--6hr at 200ab and below Ave defense so how does the term worthless not fit? Some people love themselves Dalbec no matter how terrible he is. He's a bad baseball player. To add, remove his best and worst month last year and recalibrate his total numbers. He's gone from mediocre to awful.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 9, 2022 14:24:02 GMT -5
Mata and Rafaela for Castillo. Done. Not if you're the Reds. I don't think that's even close; I think it would take one of our big four and then some.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 9, 2022 14:39:23 GMT -5
Mata and Rafaela for Castillo. Done. I wish. We would probably need to add Crawford, Seabold, Yorke to that deal. 1 pitcher coming off an injury and a prospect having 1 successful season in low minors isn't going to get it done.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 9, 2022 14:40:50 GMT -5
Mata and Rafaela for Castillo. Done. Not if you're the Reds. I don't think that's even close; I think it would take one of our big four and then some. Yeah, my guess is a Sox Top 5 prospect plus at least one other from the top 10 and maybe even a touch more (perhaps that familiar prospect known as the "lottery-ticket A ball guy").
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Post by Guidas on Jul 9, 2022 14:41:59 GMT -5
Mata and Rafaela for Castillo. Done. I wish. We would probably need to add Crawford, Seabold, Yorke to that deal. 1 pitcher coming off an injury and a prospect having 1 successful season in low minors isn't going to get it done. Why would a team want the Sox crap? I mean Seabold is a bullpen arm (maybe) and Crawford is a likely org guy. You're probably looking at Yorke (if one believes he's real) plus Bello plus a low-A lottery ticket. And even then you have to beat offers from teams with stronger systems.
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