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7/7-7/10 Red Sox vs. Yankees Series Thread
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,940
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 10, 2022 14:35:17 GMT -5
Part of this on-going debate is predicated on the loss of Kiké who ought to address everyone’s desires a bit more than what they have. He’d provide great D and at least a bit more O than JBJ. I am not sure the Schwarber case is germane. I expect he’d be a bit of a butcher at first, but it is not like Franchy or even Dalbec are the JBJs in the analogy. You have two guys in the negatives for bWAR — who are likely combined a negative defensively. Schwarber’s offense would certainly make up the defensive difference. But not so much that I’m going to cry about it. I just don’t think people were wrong to want him back. Out of curiosity, why do you always cite bWAR? Now that fangraphs uses OAA, which I think is better than DRS, I don't know what value bWAR has for position players. (WAR for pitchers isn't worth much in general, imo.) (Just being in the habit of looking at b-ref is a perfectly reasonable answer.)
As far as that goes, Dalbec is at -4 DRS but -1 OAA (though 0 OAA at 1B). Watching him play, I think the OAA number is a lot more plausible. (And UZR corroborates it, at +1.7.) Anyway, that's the main difference between his -0.6 bWAR and -0.1 fWAR.
Franchy, meanwhile, is -4 DRS and -1 OAA, and correspondingly -0.1 bWAR and +0.5 fWAR. There I'm sort of inclined to split the difference. (Kind of a lesson in the false objectivity of statistics in all this...)
Now you have me curious. Why do you think WAR is worthless for P's? I've always thought it's more useful for P's than position players because position player WAR includes a defensive component, which can be squishy, especially in SSS (though, as we all know, defensive metrics have come a long ways). Pitcher WAR includes a defensive component, too, but is more about the main thing pitchers do - which is pitch. I generally look at both FG and B-Ref for P's because I know the methodologies are different.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 10, 2022 14:36:23 GMT -5
Rays about to get swept by the Reds.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,940
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 10, 2022 14:41:16 GMT -5
I'm not sure how it got lost on me that it was Verdugo that drove Downs in, which is poetic. Also love that Downs got his first hit against the Yankees on the anniversary of Derek Jeter's 3000th hit. Also, the Yankees were 48-0 when leading after 7 before last night. I put the Dugo/Downs part of it together but wasn't aware of it being the anniversary of that other Jeter's 3,000th hit. It's a nice coincidence, kind of like winning game 7 of the 2004 ALCS on Mickey Mantle's birthday. "Not on this day," Francesa said on the FAN on the afternoon of Oct. 20, 2004. Hours later, Damon, Lowe and Papi said, "Yes, on this day."
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 10, 2022 14:48:50 GMT -5
Out of curiosity, why do you always cite bWAR? Now that fangraphs uses OAA, which I think is better than DRS, I don't know what value bWAR has for position players. (WAR for pitchers isn't worth much in general, imo.) (Just being in the habit of looking at b-ref is a perfectly reasonable answer.)
As far as that goes, Dalbec is at -4 DRS but -1 OAA (though 0 OAA at 1B). Watching him play, I think the OAA number is a lot more plausible. (And UZR corroborates it, at +1.7.) Anyway, that's the main difference between his -0.6 bWAR and -0.1 fWAR.
Franchy, meanwhile, is -4 DRS and -1 OAA, and correspondingly -0.1 bWAR and +0.5 fWAR. There I'm sort of inclined to split the difference. (Kind of a lesson in the false objectivity of statistics in all this...)
Now you have me curious. Why do you think WAR is worthless for P's? I've always thought it's more useful for P's than position players because position player WAR includes a defensive component, which can be squishy, especially in SSS (though, as we all know, defensive metrics have come a long ways). Pitcher WAR includes a defensive component, too, but is more about the main thing pitchers do - which is pitch. I generally look at both FG and B-Ref for P's because I know the methodologies are different. I was just thinking about bWAR using RA/9, which also would theoretically include ghost runners in extra innings. (does anyone know if this is true or not?) That would make it more worthless. How can you possibly compare different pitchers who pitch in extra innings a different number of times by using RA/9?
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cdj
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Posts: 15,647
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Post by cdj on Jul 10, 2022 14:51:07 GMT -5
Duran 8 Vazquez 2 Martinez DH Bogaerts 6 Verdugo 7 Story 4 Cordero 3 Bradley Jr 9 Dalbec 5
Against Taillon. Hopefully home JBJ shows up
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Post by patford on Jul 10, 2022 14:55:47 GMT -5
The great thing about brining Downs up ( other than it seems to have jump started him), is that this is a guy who's struggled and lost the shine of "prospect status," but by bringing him up we've seen some of the tools that had made him so highly touted. This is a guy who has been young, for just about every level he's played. People were so down on him and perhaps for good reason, but he's a true "prospect" a toolsy unfinished product. He's obviously has a ton of talent and watching him run after that Verdugo hit was a thing of beauty. We wouldn't have seen some of these things if he was toiling as a 200 hitter in Worcester. He's a story and now really can hold his head up, maybe become a fan favorite and if he gets sent back down spread some of that around. This call up should serve as a reward for how good he's been in AAA since his last chance in the show. You'd like to think the coaches saw something in him before last time up, that said this kid needs to understand how close he is, he needs a taste to get his head right. Downs going completely off the rails never made sense. When you see that with a player whose been heavily scouted and his tools are known it almost has to be injury, a change in approach or mental. I'd think that perhaps as with Benintendi and Duran it might have been changing his approach to try and generate more HRs but he's been hitting and the power is still there. Anyhow it's unwise to give up on a guy like that where he's never been known to have a fatal flaw like poor bat speed or an inability to handle velocity.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 10, 2022 15:19:13 GMT -5
Out of curiosity, why do you always cite bWAR? Now that fangraphs uses OAA, which I think is better than DRS, I don't know what value bWAR has for position players. (WAR for pitchers isn't worth much in general, imo.) (Just being in the habit of looking at b-ref is a perfectly reasonable answer.)
As far as that goes, Dalbec is at -4 DRS but -1 OAA (though 0 OAA at 1B). Watching him play, I think the OAA number is a lot more plausible. (And UZR corroborates it, at +1.7.) Anyway, that's the main difference between his -0.6 bWAR and -0.1 fWAR.
Franchy, meanwhile, is -4 DRS and -1 OAA, and correspondingly -0.1 bWAR and +0.5 fWAR. There I'm sort of inclined to split the difference. (Kind of a lesson in the false objectivity of statistics in all this...)
Now you have me curious. Why do you think WAR is worthless for P's? I've always thought it's more useful for P's than position players because position player WAR includes a defensive component, which can be squishy, especially in SSS (though, as we all know, defensive metrics have come a long ways). Pitcher WAR includes a defensive component, too, but is more about the main thing pitchers do - which is pitch. I generally look at both FG and B-Ref for P's because I know the methodologies are different. Yeah, WAR is squishy on the D, and even for positional players it's probably not worth looking at in more detail than a whole number total.
But for pitchers... blech. Fangraphs WAR is just based on FIP, but that ignores that some pitchers have a tendency to over- or underperform their FIP.
I think b-ref is even worse though, because they basically just make it a function of RA9, which is no better than ERA. That's narratively interesting - it says something about how things have gone when the guy has been on the mound. But it doesn't really say how well they've pitched, nor does it have any more predictive value than ERA.
I like to just look at the ERA and multiverse stats, and go with whatever the consensus of those is, taking into consideration whether the player has a tendency to over/underperform their multiverse stats. E.g., how good has Wacha been this year?
ERA: 2.69 xERA: 4.61 FIP: 3.95 xFIP: 4.29
And for his career his ERA is almost identical to both FIP and xFIP. That looks to me like a pitcher who's gotten real lucky and is probably due to regress.
Anyway, people have much more sophisticated ways of looking at pitcher performance than this, but it's my go-to quick and dirty way of checking on a pitcher's overall performance.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 10, 2022 15:26:42 GMT -5
I actually think the whole D component of WAR should now be dropped for DHs since they've become league wide. Using D to in any way judge a primary DH is like using batting average to judge a pitcher's performance.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 10, 2022 15:28:20 GMT -5
He's ready:
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 10, 2022 15:29:13 GMT -5
The D component of WAR is positional adjustment + how many runs below or above average someone is in the field. A DH is losing lots of points on the positional adjustment. You need the positional adjustment, otherwise you'd have the 750 OPS DH coming out ahead of a 730 OPS SS who is maybe a little worse in the field than the average major league SS.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 10, 2022 15:29:39 GMT -5
I actually think the whole D component of WAR should now be dropped for DHs since they've become league wide. Using D to in any way judge a primary DH is like using batting average to judge a pitcher's performance. But the purpose of WAR is to compare all players, not just DHs. DH is the lowest rung of the defensive ladder, so they are worth the least defensive value. It's the only way to compare to 1B, to LF to SS/CF.
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Post by manfred on Jul 10, 2022 15:30:38 GMT -5
Downs is young and I gather has real tools, so giving up on him was extreme. But taking last night as some breakthrough is silly, too. He scored pinch-running. Then he basically grounded out softly, and the 2b botched it. It was good he made contact, and it was good he went to the right side. But… you know. Pump the breaks on the Jetersance.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 10, 2022 15:33:32 GMT -5
Downs is young and I gather has real tools, so giving up on him was extreme. But taking last night as some breakthrough is silly, too. He scored pinch-running. Then he basically grounded out softly, and the 2b botched it. It was good he made contact, and it was good he went to the right side. But… you know. Pump the breaks on the Jetersance. If the 2B made that play, it would have been equal to Pedroia's best defensive play he ever made. There was no botching. Yeah, pump the brakes though. Just like when people start giving up on prospects after a bad week.
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Post by reasonabledoubt on Jul 10, 2022 15:38:23 GMT -5
Rays about to get swept by the Reds. Since 6/26, prior to playing the series in TOR, the Sox were WC #1 with a 1.5 lead over TOR & TB. Since then the Sox have gone 4-8 and are still (at the beginning of today) 0.5 ahead of TB, 1.5 ahead of TOR. Maybe watch out for the Orioles!
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Post by incandenza on Jul 10, 2022 15:51:20 GMT -5
The D component of WAR is positional adjustment + how many runs below or above average someone is in the field. A DH is losing lots of points on the positional adjustment. You need the positional adjustment, otherwise you'd have the 750 OPS DH coming out ahead of a 730 OPS SS who is maybe a little worse in the field than the average major league SS. Yeah, though this is also another thing I don't like about WAR. Or maybe it's just an inherent limitation of giving an absolute value to an individual player who is in fact just part of a larger composition, i.e., a team.
Like I've pointed out that WAR is going to underrate JBJ this season because he's playing in RF rather than CF; it just happens to be the case that the Red Sox think he has the most value for the team playing there, despite being perfectly capable of playing CF.
And it's going to underrate Franchy because he's being asked to play 1B, since a) he gets a harsher positional adjustment there than he would in the OF, and b) he's terrible at it. But again, it's the position where the Red Sox think he can help them the most.
Meanwhile, it might overrate Xander, because if he moved off of position he wouldn't be replaced by a AAAA guy; he'd be replaced by Trevor Story. There are good reasons why they haven't moved him, but he probably adds a little less value to the team as a result.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 10, 2022 15:54:45 GMT -5
Rays about to get swept by the Reds. Maybe watch out for the Orioles! Yeah they just swept the sad sack Angels. Trout and Ohtani going to waste. The Rendon contract might be one of the worst ever.
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Post by redsox43 on Jul 10, 2022 15:55:46 GMT -5
The Pivetta and Taillon is the only mathcup I liked in this series.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,940
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 10, 2022 15:57:43 GMT -5
Now you have me curious. Why do you think WAR is worthless for P's? I've always thought it's more useful for P's than position players because position player WAR includes a defensive component, which can be squishy, especially in SSS (though, as we all know, defensive metrics have come a long ways). Pitcher WAR includes a defensive component, too, but is more about the main thing pitchers do - which is pitch. I generally look at both FG and B-Ref for P's because I know the methodologies are different. Yeah, WAR is squishy on the D, and even for positional players it's probably not worth looking at in more detail than a whole number total.
But for pitchers... blech. Fangraphs WAR is just based on FIP, but that ignores that some pitchers have a tendency to over- or underperform their FIP.
I think b-ref is even worse though, because they basically just make it a function of RA9, which is no better than ERA. That's narratively interesting - it says something about how things have gone when the guy has been on the mound. But it doesn't really say how well they've pitched, nor does it have any more predictive value than ERA.
I like to just look at the ERA and multiverse stats, and go with whatever the consensus of those is, taking into consideration whether the player has a tendency to over/underperform their multiverse stats. E.g., how good has Wacha been this year?
ERA: 2.69 xERA: 4.61 FIP: 3.95 xFIP: 4.29
And for his career his ERA is almost identical to both FIP and xFIP. That looks to me like a pitcher who's gotten real lucky and is probably due to regress.
Anyway, people have much more sophisticated ways of looking at pitcher performance than this, but it's my go-to quick and dirty way of checking on a pitcher's overall performance.
Thanks for explaining. I look at all stats as having some value, but none as telling the whole story of a player's performance and I think that's pretty close to what you're saying. Some people are too dogmatic about their favorite stats - "WAR is everything!" No, it's not. Verdugo's WAR this year does not come close to telling us how well he has hit the ball. And Wacha is definitely a good example of a P whose ERA is misleading. For a quickie look at a P's performance, I try to look at the numbers you cited for Wacha, plus WHIP and SIERA. I value WHIP because it tells you how efficiently a P performed his basic function, which is to get outs. But as with every stat, there are caveats. A pitcher with crappy fielders behind him is going to suffer when it comes to WHIP. Like I said, no stat is God's word and no stat is totally meaningless. They all need context.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 10, 2022 16:01:54 GMT -5
I'm not sure how it got lost on me that it was Verdugo that drove Downs in, which is poetic. Also love that Downs got his first hit against the Yankees on the anniversary of Derek Jeter's 3000th hit. Also, the Yankees were 48-0 when leading after 7 before last night. I put the Dugo/Downs part of it together but wasn't aware of it being the anniversary of that other Jeter's 3,000th hit. It's a nice coincidence, kind of like winning game 7 of the 2004 ALCS on Mickey Mantle's birthday. "Not on this day," Francesa said on the FAN on the afternoon of Oct. 20, 2004. Hours later, Damon, Lowe and Papi said, "Yes, on this day." Technically the Sox didn't win Game 7 of ALCS 2004 on Mantle's birthday. They actually finished off the Yankees at 12:01am on Oct 21, 2004....which happened to be Whitey Ford's birthday. So hopefully Francesa took solace in that, that the Yankees didn't get eliminated on Mantle's birthday...they waited until Ford's birthday which he was alive at the time to celebrate. I guess Francesa has Timlin and Francona to thank for this. It was still Oct 20th when Timlin tried to finish off the Yankees but he walked Lofton on four pitches and then Francona felt compelled to pull Timlin for Embree with the aim of forcing Jon Olerud out of the game which is what happened when Sierra PH for him. By time the commercials ended it was midnight at the Bronx and Mantle's birthday had passed.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 10, 2022 16:02:33 GMT -5
I actually think the whole D component of WAR should now be dropped for DHs since they've become league wide. Using D to in any way judge a primary DH is like using batting average to judge a pitcher's performance. But the purpose of WAR is to compare all players, not just DHs. DH is the lowest rung of the defensive ladder, so they are worth the least defensive value. It's the only way to compare to 1B, to LF to SS/CF. I get that. But the stat is so flawed, and there are so many variables, I think it’s just a leaky construct. Anyway, if a DH is a position now that’s for all teams and doesn’t play defense, then it should be evaluated on offense-only. That’s the position and the value. The rest seems moot at this point.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 10, 2022 16:03:26 GMT -5
But the purpose of WAR is to compare all players, not just DHs. DH is the lowest rung of the defensive ladder, so they are worth the least defensive value. It's the only way to compare to 1B, to LF to SS/CF. I get that. But the stat is so flawed, and there are so many variables, I think it’s just a leaky construct. Anyway, if a DH is a position now that’s for all teams and doesn’t play defense, then it should be evaluated on offense-only. That’s the position and the value. The rest seems moot at this point. So how do you compare a DH to a SS then? Does Matt Carpenter deserve Carlos Correa money?
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 10, 2022 16:04:21 GMT -5
The D component of WAR is positional adjustment + how many runs below or above average someone is in the field. A DH is losing lots of points on the positional adjustment. You need the positional adjustment, otherwise you'd have the 750 OPS DH coming out ahead of a 730 OPS SS who is maybe a little worse in the field than the average major league SS. Yeah, though this is also another thing I don't like about WAR. Or maybe it's just an inherent limitation of giving an absolute value to an individual player who is in fact just part of a larger composition, i.e., a team.
Like I've pointed out that WAR is going to underrate JBJ this season because he's playing in RF rather than CF; it just happens to be the case that the Red Sox think he has the most value for the team playing there, despite being perfectly capable of playing CF.
And it's going to underrate Franchy because he's being asked to play 1B, since a) he gets a harsher positional adjustment there than he would in the OF, and b) he's terrible at it. But again, it's the position where the Red Sox think he can help them the most.
Meanwhile, it might overrate Xander, because if he moved off of position he wouldn't be replaced by a AAAA guy; he'd be replaced by Trevor Story. There are good reasons why they haven't moved him, but he probably adds a little less value to the team as a result.
It's not team specific WAR though, it's league WAR, Xander shouldn't get a harsher positional adjustment because the Red Sox happen to have a good short stop at second. I think for JBJ he's moreso being unfairly punished because it's harder for the Red Sox to replace him with an adequate RF. I do agree with the point though that if we're evaluating the overall worth of the guy we should consider that Story or JBJ are capable of playing positions higher up the defensive spectrum at likely the same OAA.
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Post by manfred on Jul 10, 2022 16:08:08 GMT -5
I get that. But the stat is so flawed, and there are so many variables, I think it’s just a leaky construct. Anyway, if a DH is a position now that’s for all teams and doesn’t play defense, then it should be evaluated on offense-only. That’s the position and the value. The rest seems moot at this point. So how do you compare a DH to a SS then? Maybe you don’t? I mean, maybe some things can’t be quantified? Maybe there is room uncertainty?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 10, 2022 16:10:52 GMT -5
So how do you compare a DH to a SS then? Maybe you don’t? I mean, maybe some things can’t be quantified? Maybe there is room uncertainty? So get rid of WAR? That's exactly what it's supposed to measure. The value of all players relative to each other.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 10, 2022 16:14:06 GMT -5
The point of the positional adjustment is that it's easier to replace a DH because you don't have to care about their defense. If you're comparing DHs or DH options to each other of course you only consider offense (other than roster flexibility I suppose).
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