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7/11-7/14 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 14, 2022 8:55:58 GMT -5
Winckowski ranks 369th/374 pitchers in getting whiffs on swings. Isn't his MO "pitch to contact", though? 4.05 xERA over 7 starts so the lack of whiffs haven't exactly translated into good contact.
His entire Savant page is blue or white, so it looks bad at first glance, but the key seems to be launch angle he's allowing. The MLB average is 12.1 and he's down at 4.5. 53.3% GB rate (44.9% average), 15.8% FB rate (22.9% average), 45.8% topped (33.1% average). So yes, guys aren't whiffing and the exit velocities are pretty high, but a lot of that hard contact is being pounded into the ground.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 14, 2022 9:00:34 GMT -5
How huge were those 2 games they gutted out against NYY? The levy might have broken if not for them. Really needed a breather to ride out the pitching injuries and offensive cold streak.
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Post by manfred on Jul 14, 2022 9:50:28 GMT -5
How huge were those 2 games they gutted out against NYY? The levy might have broken if not for them. Really needed a breather to ride out the pitching injuries and offensive cold streak. Yanks have struggled with the Reds, too. This might be a kind of low for the Sox: they have tons of injuries, the Yankees were out of their heads much of the year, even the Orioles are hot. But… if the Sox get healthy, maybe this is a moment that marks peak Yankees? Maybe their return to earth has begun?
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Post by greenmonster on Jul 14, 2022 10:40:55 GMT -5
How huge were those 2 games they gutted out against NYY? The levy might have broken if not for them. Really needed a breather to ride out the pitching injuries and offensive cold streak. Yanks have struggled with the Reds, too. This might be a kind of low for the Sox: they have tons of injuries, the Yankees were out of their heads much of the year, even the Orioles are hot. But… if the Sox get healthy, maybe this is a moment that marks peak Yankees? Maybe their return to earth has begun? "Don't Let Us Win Today"
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Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2022 10:59:01 GMT -5
How huge were those 2 games they gutted out against NYY? The levy might have broken if not for them. Really needed a breather to ride out the pitching injuries and offensive cold streak. Yanks have struggled with the Reds, too. This might be a kind of low for the Sox: they have tons of injuries, the Yankees were out of their heads much of the year, even the Orioles are hot. But… if the Sox get healthy, maybe this is a moment that marks peak Yankees? Maybe their return to earth has begun? Yeah, I think it has - they're 13-10 since June 19th. They're a good team, but their record is a really clear-cut case of getting massive overproduction from a bunch of guys playing at and beyond the limits of any reasonable expectation, including excellent luck with health so far. (As opposed to, say, the Dodgers and Astros, who I think are both playing closer to the level of their actual talent.)
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Post by manfred on Jul 14, 2022 11:50:12 GMT -5
Yanks have struggled with the Reds, too. This might be a kind of low for the Sox: they have tons of injuries, the Yankees were out of their heads much of the year, even the Orioles are hot. But… if the Sox get healthy, maybe this is a moment that marks peak Yankees? Maybe their return to earth has begun? Yeah, I think it has - they're 13-10 since June 19th. They're a good team, but their record is a really clear-cut case of getting massive overproduction from a bunch of guys playing at and beyond the limits of any reasonable expectation, including excellent luck with health so far. (As opposed to, say, the Dodgers and Astros, who I think are both playing closer to the level of their actual talent.)
One can’t predict injury, obviously, but… allow me at least to say that they have a notoriously brittle starting lineup and have not had any significant losses. I mean, between Judge, Rizzo, Donaldson, and Stanton, it is not hard to imagine at least one long IL stint.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 14, 2022 12:11:48 GMT -5
Yeah, I think it has - they're 13-10 since June 19th. They're a good team, but their record is a really clear-cut case of getting massive overproduction from a bunch of guys playing at and beyond the limits of any reasonable expectation, including excellent luck with health so far. (As opposed to, say, the Dodgers and Astros, who I think are both playing closer to the level of their actual talent.) One can’t predict injury, obviously, but… allow me at least to say that they have a notoriously brittle starting lineup and have not had any significant losses. I mean, between Judge, Rizzo, Donaldson, and Stanton, it is not hard to imagine at least one long IL stint. And Severino went down last night.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 14, 2022 12:13:20 GMT -5
How huge were those 2 games they gutted out against NYY? The levy might have broken if not for them. Really needed a breather to ride out the pitching injuries and offensive cold streak. And they had game 1 in hand and pissed it away in much the same fashion they've been doing against the Rays.
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Post by manfred on Jul 14, 2022 12:20:18 GMT -5
Don’t get me wrong… I am not saying the Sox are catching the Yankees… but their remaining games may not be as hard as they have been to date if things shift. That goes a long way to securing a WC spot… it is also a reason not to be a big seller.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 14, 2022 12:23:41 GMT -5
How huge were those 2 games they gutted out against NYY? The levy might have broken if not for them. Really needed a breather to ride out the pitching injuries and offensive cold streak. And they had game 1 in hand and pissed it away in much the same fashion they've been doing against the Rays. The way the roster is/was constructed, they’re going to blow some games. They signed up for it with the bullpen alone, which despite all the blown saves is still getting bailed out by Schreiber.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 14, 2022 12:28:32 GMT -5
And they had game 1 in hand and pissed it away in much the same fashion they've been doing against the Rays. The way the roster is/was constructed, they’re going to blow some games. They signed up for it with the bullpen alone, which despite all the blown saves is still getting bailed out by Schreiber. Agree, though Eric posted some data a couple weeks ago that showed the Sox are blowing an inordinate number of these games from the 7th inning on. Like bottom third of the league. Hell of a bullpen to use in the last year of a powerful core, Mr. Bloom.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2022 12:36:30 GMT -5
The way the roster is/was constructed, they’re going to blow some games. They signed up for it with the bullpen alone, which despite all the blown saves is still getting bailed out by Schreiber. Agree, though Eric posted some data a couple weeks ago that showed the Sox are blowing an inordinate number of these games from the 7th inning on. Like bottom third of the league. Hell of a bullpen to use in the last year of a powerful core, Mr. Bloom. Alas, he made the mistake so many do - tried to spend big on a Proven Closer, in Barnes. That left less money to build out the rest of the bullpen; they'd have been better off adding three more $3 million pieces of spaghetti to fling at the wall and hope one of them sticks (like Strahm, Schreiber, and even Sawamura have).
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Post by Guidas on Jul 14, 2022 12:59:03 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Jul 14, 2022 12:59:13 GMT -5
Agree, though Eric posted some data a couple weeks ago that showed the Sox are blowing an inordinate number of these games from the 7th inning on. Like bottom third of the league. Hell of a bullpen to use in the last year of a powerful core, Mr. Bloom. Alas, he made the mistake so many do - tried to spend big on a Proven Closer, in Barnes. That left less money to build out the rest of the bullpen; they'd have been better off adding three more $3 million pieces of spaghetti to fling at the wall and hope one of them sticks (like Strahm, Schreiber, and even Sawamura have). Maybe. I think the mistake was bigger: spending “Proven Closer” money on an UNproven closer. Barnes was lights out for half a season, but I think even at the time (before total meltdown) I feel like many on here expressed some trepidation over that commitment.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 14, 2022 13:01:51 GMT -5
Doing some writing last night, but I did peek in every once in a while with a "Did I just see that?" take twice. Watched Devers get thrown out at third and then, as luck would have it, my next extended look had Lowe scoring all the way from first! They're in a real funk right now, one I hope they climb out of.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 14, 2022 13:02:36 GMT -5
Alas, he made the mistake so many do - tried to spend big on a Proven Closer, in Barnes. That left less money to build out the rest of the bullpen; they'd have been better off adding three more $3 million pieces of spaghetti to fling at the wall and hope one of them sticks (like Strahm, Schreiber, and even Sawamura have). Maybe. I think the mistake was bigger: spending “Proven Closer” money on an UNproven closer. Barnes was lights out for half a season, but I think even at the time (before total meltdown) I feel like many on here expressed some trepidation over that commitment. I don't think he actually spent that type of money. Craig Kimbrel is on a 4 year $58M contract, Chapman is 3/$48 Barnes is on a 2 year $19M contract. Proven closer money is a lot more than $10M per year. Also I think that the contract timing was just exceptionally poor given the sticky stuff ban and how much of Barnes' success it seems was related to that.
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Post by manfred on Jul 14, 2022 13:04:50 GMT -5
Maybe. I think the mistake was bigger: spending “Proven Closer” money on an UNproven closer. Barnes was lights out for half a season, but I think even at the time (before total meltdown) I feel like many on here expressed some trepidation over that commitment. I don't think he actually spent that type of money. Craig Kimbrel is on a 4 year $58M contract, Chapman is 3/$48 Barnes is on a 2 year $19M contract. Proven closer money is a lot more than $10M per year. Also I think that the contract timing was just exceptionally poor given the sticky stuff ban and how much of Barnes' success it seems was related to that. That’s fair. You are right that it is not *that* big a contract. But it did seem to confirm Barnes’s role.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 14, 2022 13:09:38 GMT -5
Castillo pitching against the MFY today. Wish he was pitching against them tomorrow.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2022 13:13:58 GMT -5
Alas, he made the mistake so many do - tried to spend big on a Proven Closer, in Barnes. That left less money to build out the rest of the bullpen; they'd have been better off adding three more $3 million pieces of spaghetti to fling at the wall and hope one of them sticks (like Strahm, Schreiber, and even Sawamura have). Maybe. I think the mistake was bigger: spending “Proven Closer” money on an UNproven closer. Barnes was lights out for half a season, but I think even at the time (before total meltdown) I feel like many on here expressed some trepidation over that commitment. At least in the thread devoted to the signing, there was universal adulation and agreement that it was a team-friendly deal.
Anyways, proven closers flame out all the time too. Look at Kimbrel, who is currently demonstrating that on his fourth consecutive team...
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 14, 2022 13:53:14 GMT -5
The injury bug destroyed what could of been a great season for us. I hope next year we DH a different position player every game to keep them as fresh as possible. I’m also 100% in on a 6 man rotation.
Sale Pivetta Paxton Free Agent Bello Winckowski
When there’s injures then you stick to the 6 man. Keep our starters as fresh as possible. Crawford and Seabold as injury replacements or anyone who deserves a shot.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 14, 2022 14:25:44 GMT -5
I don't think he actually spent that type of money. Craig Kimbrel is on a 4 year $58M contract, Chapman is 3/$48 Barnes is on a 2 year $19M contract. Proven closer money is a lot more than $10M per year. Also I think that the contract timing was just exceptionally poor given the sticky stuff ban and how much of Barnes' success it seems was related to that. It was poor timing because Bloom paid him at peak performance. There is a good chance Barnes may contribute negative bWAR for this contract (he is already negative at this point). This has been bad, whether it be closer money or not. We have all been witness to his whole career, 9.5 mill a year was risky. People are being less than truthful without that admission.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 14, 2022 14:29:09 GMT -5
Please win tonight. a sweep would make me disconsolate.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 14, 2022 14:35:50 GMT -5
I don't think he actually spent that type of money. Craig Kimbrel is on a 4 year $58M contract, Chapman is 3/$48 Barnes is on a 2 year $19M contract. Proven closer money is a lot more than $10M per year. Also I think that the contract timing was just exceptionally poor given the sticky stuff ban and how much of Barnes' success it seems was related to that. It was poor timing because Bloom paid him at peak performance. There is a good chance Barnes may contribute negative bWAR for this contract (he is already negative at this point). This has been bad, whether it be closer money or not. We have all been witness to his whole career, 9.5 mill a year was risky. People are being less than truthful without that admission. Peak performance that looked completely sustainable and everyone here thought it was a good deal. Of course there was risk, as any contract has, but at the time people thought it was fair value if not a discount. He didn't pay him as if he had been doing what he did for half a season for years, or he would have been on a Kimbrel/Chapman-esque deal, which is my point. Obviously in hindsight it's not working out well, and maybe you should just never pay a reliever big (or in Barnes' case, medium) money.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 14, 2022 14:38:38 GMT -5
Please win tonight. a sweep would make me disconsolate. I was going to say that I won't be disconsolate until we're no longer actually in playoff position, but just realized that with the Mariners deciding they're simply not going to lose ever again, that could actually happen tonight.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 14, 2022 14:41:41 GMT -5
Playoff odds down to 58.2%.
15 games before the trade deadline. I'll guess they'll need to lose 10 to become sellers.
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