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Post by benzinger on Jul 31, 2022 14:45:40 GMT -5
Imagine if Arroyo could actually play 145 games? Guy can hit. If he could play 145 games, I think we’d all be disappointed with the output. He’s never shown much of anything over the course of his career.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 31, 2022 14:48:42 GMT -5
Watching Rafaela rapidly adjust to AA, I would love to see him on a Sept call-up, just to see how he adapts. Dude seems like money and better defensively than our entire MLB OF.
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Post by manfred on Jul 31, 2022 15:06:52 GMT -5
I said this Friday, but I’ll say it again. I wouldn’t mind seeing Davis stretched as a starter. He has a nice mix.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,646
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Post by cdj on Jul 31, 2022 15:08:07 GMT -5
I hate being right on Winckowski but that dude ain't no MLB starting pitcher material. Can’t pitch in 2022 if you can’t miss a bat, like at all. Which is why he held this very good lineup to a .230 xOBP, .145 effective when you include the hit probabilities of the two GDP's.
Winck in his first set of starts showed a rare and absolutely real soft-contact skill, in EV and xwOBA. That confirmed that his doing that in spades in in AAA was real. He then had a bunch of outings where he didn't have his command and his numbers went from #2 starter to 5, but I believe that this game demonstrates that this was not the league catching to to him, but just good stretch / bad stretch.
Nobody knows how often he'll have the command he needs. But he has a very reasonable #3 upside. I can run the numbers from his distinct good and bad stretch this year and work out how often he needs to be on his game to be a #3, #4, and #5 starter. I think he projects right now as an average 4 starter, 5th guy on a pennant contender, and that doesn't suck.
The h8ers can’t stand it
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Post by manfred on Jul 31, 2022 15:10:55 GMT -5
Can only hope to contain him.
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briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,180
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Post by briam on Jul 31, 2022 15:12:19 GMT -5
Which is why he held this very good lineup to a .230 xOBP, .145 effective when you include the hit probabilities of the two GDP's.
Winck in his first set of starts showed a rare and absolutely real soft-contact skill, in EV and xwOBA. That confirmed that his doing that in spades in in AAA was real. He then had a bunch of outings where he didn't have his command and his numbers went from #2 starter to 5, but I believe that this game demonstrates that this was not the league catching to to him, but just good stretch / bad stretch.
Nobody knows how often he'll have the command he needs. But he has a very reasonable #3 upside. I can run the numbers from his distinct good and bad stretch this year and work out how often he needs to be on his game to be a #3, #4, and #5 starter. I think he projects right now as an average 4 starter, 5th guy on a pennant contender, and that doesn't suck.
The h8ers can’t stand it Far from a hater I just don’t have much faith in pitchers like Winck. His batted ball profile all ranked in the bottom 25% entering today (hard hit, barrel rate, exit velo, xBA, xSLG, xwOBA), and he’s 1% in whiff and 4% in chase rate. I just don’t believe a guy with those metrics can consistently be effective relying on soft contact.
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Post by reasonabledoubt on Jul 31, 2022 15:15:31 GMT -5
Anyone scouting Jackie? Has had success in the post-season. Problem is he only hits in Fenway.
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Post by taiwansox on Jul 31, 2022 15:16:27 GMT -5
Anyone scouting Jackie? Has had success in the post-season. Problem is he only hits in Fenway. He hit a few in Houston!
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 31, 2022 15:18:22 GMT -5
Jackie still has a chance to get his option picked up
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 31, 2022 15:18:55 GMT -5
Please walk X for. JD grand slam
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,646
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Post by cdj on Jul 31, 2022 15:19:11 GMT -5
Far from a hater I just don’t have much faith in pitchers like Winck. His batted ball profile all ranked in the bottom 25% entering today (hard hit, barrel rate, exit velo, xBA, xSLG, xwOBA), and he’s 1% in whiff and 4% in chase rate. I just don’t believe a guy with those metrics can consistently be effective relying on soft contact. Not necessarily referring to you but I find it odd people are taking victory laps on a reasonably well pitched game against a good team
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 31, 2022 15:19:15 GMT -5
bummer. I crashed during the offensive explosion
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Post by reasonabledoubt on Jul 31, 2022 15:19:30 GMT -5
Anyone scouting Jackie? Has had success in the post-season. Problem is he only hits in Fenway. He hit a few in Houston! Showcasing starting tomorrow!
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 31, 2022 15:27:51 GMT -5
Willians Austindavis making things more interesting
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 31, 2022 15:27:55 GMT -5
Jackie still has a chance to get his option picked up When you have to pay him 8 million to go away, having them pick up the option becomes far less significant
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Post by reasonabledoubt on Jul 31, 2022 15:36:46 GMT -5
Winck is Red Sox pitcher of the month.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 31, 2022 15:38:17 GMT -5
Yes ! Win !!!
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Post by greenmonster on Jul 31, 2022 15:42:40 GMT -5
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 31, 2022 15:43:54 GMT -5
Imagine if Arroyo could actually play 145 games? Guy can hit. I may say you're a dreamer but you're not the only one...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 31, 2022 15:49:01 GMT -5
I hate being right on Winckowski but that dude ain't no MLB starting pitcher material. Can’t pitch in 2022 if you can’t miss a bat, like at all. Which is why he held this very good lineup to a .230 xOBP, .145 effective when you include the hit probabilities of the two GDP's.
Winck in his first set of starts showed a rare and absolutely real soft-contact skill, in EV and xwOBA. That confirmed that his doing that in spades in in AAA was real. He then had a bunch of outings where he didn't have his command and his numbers went from #2 starter to 5, but I believe that this game demonstrates that this was not the league catching to to him, but just good stretch / bad stretch.
Nobody knows how often he'll have the command he needs. But he has a very reasonable #3 upside. I can run the numbers from his distinct good and bad stretch this year and work out how often he needs to be on his game to be a #3, #4, and #5 starter. I think he projects right now as an average 4 starter, 5th guy on a pennant contender, and that doesn't suck.
When a rookie gives up a homer to their hottest hitter, it's a guarantee that he's a bum and will never make it in this league...
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,497
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Post by nomar on Jul 31, 2022 15:51:40 GMT -5
Potential trade target
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 31, 2022 15:56:36 GMT -5
Bad win.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 31, 2022 15:57:07 GMT -5
How many ballparks is that a homer in at sea level?
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 31, 2022 15:57:54 GMT -5
How many ballparks is that a homer in at sea level? Lol yeah, 97 mph exit velo, 405 feet. Damn son.
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Post by reasonabledoubt on Jul 31, 2022 16:12:38 GMT -5
How many ballparks is that a homer in at sea level? Odd. Man. Out!
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