mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 3,011
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Post by mobaz on Jul 31, 2022 16:13:42 GMT -5
Can't feel good about a hitter named Outman. If he converts to pitcher, would feel much better.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,582
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Post by radiohix on Jul 31, 2022 16:21:16 GMT -5
I hate being right on Winckowski but that dude ain't no MLB starting pitcher material. Can’t pitch in 2022 if you can’t miss a bat, like at all. Which is why he held this very good lineup to a .230 xOBP, .145 effective when you include the hit probabilities of the two GDP's. Winck in his first set of starts showed a rare and absolutely real soft-contact skill, in EV and xwOBA. That confirmed that his doing that in spades in in AAA was real. He then had a bunch of outings where he didn't have his command and his numbers went from #2 starter to 5, but I believe that this game demonstrates that this was not the league catching to to him, but just good stretch / bad stretch. Nobody knows how often he'll have the command he needs. But he has a very reasonable #3 upside. I can run the numbers from his distinct good and bad stretch this year and work out how often he needs to be on his game to be a #3, #4, and #5 starter. I think he projects right now as an average 4 starter, 5th guy on a pennant contender, and that doesn't suck.
I’m not into those fancy stats but I appreciate the effort. I prefer looking at the 5.6 K/9 and the lowest whiff rate in MLB. Just for the naked eye: The stuff is vanilla…no heavy sinker, slurvy slider. I’m not saying he’s worthless, he still has some value as a spot starter stached in AAA till he runs out of options is his ceiling is what I’m saying.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 31, 2022 16:28:06 GMT -5
Great win!
The streak begins!!
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 31, 2022 17:21:16 GMT -5
You can tell how the game went based on how long this thread is lol
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Post by larrycook on Jul 31, 2022 19:36:36 GMT -5
Last outings for Bello, Crawford and Winkowski were encouraging!
Not sure where the ceilings are for those three, but hopefully they are adjusting to major league hitters.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jul 31, 2022 19:52:45 GMT -5
Imagine if Arroyo could actually play 145 games? Guy can hit. I may say you're a dreamer but you're not the only one...
That is so funny because i am listening to that song right now 4 hrs after your post.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 31, 2022 20:47:47 GMT -5
I meet these plaudits of Arroyo with a skeptical eye. He has a career wRC+ of 86. This year he's at 89. OPS of .684. The best you can say about him is that he has a career high xwOBA of .345. Small sample size of 131 PAs, though.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,646
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Post by cdj on Jul 31, 2022 22:42:42 GMT -5
I think Arroyo is a perfectly fine bench infielder. Don’t need him in my lineup every day but he seems to get some timely hits and also seems to bring a positive energy to the team
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 31, 2022 23:00:44 GMT -5
Which is why he held this very good lineup to a .230 xOBP, .145 effective when you include the hit probabilities of the two GDP's. Winck in his first set of starts showed a rare and absolutely real soft-contact skill, in EV and xwOBA. That confirmed that his doing that in spades in in AAA was real. He then had a bunch of outings where he didn't have his command and his numbers went from #2 starter to 5, but I believe that this game demonstrates that this was not the league catching to to him, but just good stretch / bad stretch. Nobody knows how often he'll have the command he needs. But he has a very reasonable #3 upside. I can run the numbers from his distinct good and bad stretch this year and work out how often he needs to be on his game to be a #3, #4, and #5 starter. I think he projects right now as an average 4 starter, 5th guy on a pennant contender, and that doesn't suck.
I’m not into those fancy stats but I appreciate the effort. I prefer looking at the 5.6 K/9 and the lowest whiff rate in MLB. Just for the naked eye: The stuff is vanilla…no heavy sinker, slurvy slider. I’m not saying he’s worthless, he still has some value as a spot starter stached in AAA till he runs out of options is his ceiling is what I’m saying. He's a guy who's going to need great command to be a regular rotation guy. He'll also be more susceptible to bad umpiring than guys with blow-yer-UCL-away, swing-and-miss stuff. He's also likely to learn a bat-missing pitch as he's exposed to more teammates and coaches.
But missing barrels can be just as effective as missing bats. For one thing, you're likely to throw fewer pitches. Strikeout guys with faulty command can also get whiplash when they leave meatballs over the plate like Winck did to Renfroe. I like that he settled down (after screaming into his glove for an extended take) and didn't let it affect the rest of his outing.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 31, 2022 23:02:43 GMT -5
I think Arroyo is a perfectly fine bench infielder. Don’t need him in my lineup every day but he seems to get some timely hits and also seems to bring a positive energy to the team Key word: infielder.
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Post by bosoxgent on Aug 3, 2022 15:12:21 GMT -5
In the micro, I’m glad to watch Bello throw tonight and I’m hoping for five good innings. In the macro, it’s unsettling that the Sox have to start Bello, Pivetta and Winckowski in a three game series. Bello needs experience and command, but you can’t teach an arm that good … he’s a good one, probably in 2023 NLT the All Star break.
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