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7/29-7/31 Red Sox vs. Brewers Series Thread
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 30, 2022 0:48:59 GMT -5
Sanchez is not an ML caliber player.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 30, 2022 3:24:56 GMT -5
There have been so many games that are microcosms of this season. Tonight we get the good pitching, no offense, ineffective bullpen microcosm. Can't win when JD, Xander, Dalbec, JBJ and Sanchez go 0-16 (don't laugh at the last three names) Poor Bobby D. Has a 155 wRC+ for the game and this is the only time he gets mentioned in the thread. (I know the stat was accurate at the time.)
o
Dalbec's liner off of Hader, 113.2, hardest hit ball of the season and the 4th hardest liner of his career (he also had 1 each harder fly ball and grounder).
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Jul 30, 2022 6:00:38 GMT -5
You think he is a debbie downer as a color analyst, you should hear him on the Felger & Mazz show. After the pasting they took on last fridays game< I just had to turn on that show on Monday and Felger and him were ramming the Sox from top to bottom. they are nothing but debbie downers all the time, but I was curious to see how he would handle it seeing as he did color on that game. He was unmerciful except for Bello who he said was a real keeper. I mean, it's hard to put lipstick on this pig. The team deserves to get crushed. They were only ever good during a stretch where they faced teams racing to the bottom, though they were able to sweep the Guardians as well. One of their only efforts this season. They didn't win a series for the first month and a half of the season. It's kind of amazing they're only 1 game under .500 now given they b went through that, had a horrible July and that they have all these injuries now. In their "beardless Cora" revival, they: Split a series against the Braves where the home plate umps managed to give Atlanta +4 runs in two games. Won a series against the Astros, despite the 5 homerun inning against Eovaldi. Went 6-1 against the Mariners, including a 4 game sweep. Won a series against the Cardinals. Swept the Guardians. They are 18 - 9 against teams over .500 that do not play in the AL East.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 30, 2022 9:48:40 GMT -5
Yeaah, I mean they went 20-6 in June. They were playing really well before the plague beset them.
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Post by philip on Jul 30, 2022 9:58:30 GMT -5
Now that the Sox’s are essentially done can we just play JBJ in center and bat 9th and Davis or refsneider in right and Duran can catch fly balls in Worcester .
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 30, 2022 10:06:51 GMT -5
How does this look in the future, Casas and Niko split 1B and DH duties. If this works would be nice.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 30, 2022 10:11:09 GMT -5
How does this look in the future, Casas and Niko split 1B and DH duties. If this works would be nice. Casas is a good defensive 1b from what I've heard. He'd be the 1b and Niko would be the DH. I'd like to see Niko in AA soon. A and A+ ball aren't challenging him. Niko has me very intrigued at this point.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 30, 2022 11:12:20 GMT -5
Yeaah, I mean they went 20-6 in June. They were playing really well before the plague beset them. Also softest part of the schedule - June saw Cincy, As (twice), Angels, Cards, Mariners. Only Cleveland was solid competition. Most of July was AL East - and also we lost to a bad Cubs team
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Post by incandenza on Jul 30, 2022 11:41:12 GMT -5
Yeaah, I mean they went 20-6 in June. They were playing really well before the plague beset them. Also softest part of the schedule - June saw Cincy, As (twice), Angels, Cards, Mariners. Only Cleveland was solid competition. Most of July was AL East - and also we lost to a bad Cubs team You don't go 20-6 against anybody without playing good baseball. Also, did you see the comment above mine?
Between May 10th and the end of June they went 15-6 against ATL, HOU, SEA, STL, CLE, and TOR.
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Post by manfred on Jul 30, 2022 11:52:03 GMT -5
Yeaah, I mean they went 20-6 in June. They were playing really well before the plague beset them. But was it injuries? I looked back at since they lost on June 27, they’ve been in a death spiral. But at that point, their lineup was entirely healthy (minus Kiké who was hurt during the hot streak, too). Story kast played 7/12, a stretch they’d been 5-10. I think injuries have obviously been huge, but they don’t explain this team as much as it appears.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,647
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Post by cdj on Jul 30, 2022 11:59:09 GMT -5
I think injuries took what was going to be a bad stretch and turned it into a disaster
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 30, 2022 12:01:37 GMT -5
Also softest part of the schedule - June saw Cincy, As (twice), Angels, Cards, Mariners. Only Cleveland was solid competition. Most of July was AL East - and also we lost to a bad Cubs team You don't go 20-6 against anybody without playing good baseball. Also, did you see the comment above mine? Between May 10th and the end of June they went 15-6 against ATL, HOU, SEA, STL, CLE, and TOR.
Well, clearly I was wrong there. I remembered them beating up a bunch of bad opponents, but it looks like you guys are right. Still limited sampling, but they did have a productive stretch. As it stands now, they currently have a 13.4% to make postseason, 0.1% to win World Series. 25-26 at home 25-25 away 9-13 April 14-14 May 20-6 June 7-18 July This season they have a winning record against the following teams: CLE - 5-2 DET - 5-1 HOU - 2-1 LAA - 5-4 OAK - 5-1 SEA - 6-1 STL - 2-1 TEX - 2-1 So they have a winning record against 3 playoff teams and one fringe playoff team. Against the East BAL 3-5 NYY 4-6 TBR 2-8 TOR 3-10 Just more informational on their season as a whole.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 30, 2022 12:05:57 GMT -5
Also softest part of the schedule - June saw Cincy, As (twice), Angels, Cards, Mariners. Only Cleveland was solid competition. Most of July was AL East - and also we lost to a bad Cubs team You don't go 20-6 against anybody without playing good baseball. Also, did you see the comment above mine? Between May 10th and the end of June they went 15-6 against ATL, HOU, SEA, STL, CLE, and TOR.
Yes they had a great stretch but you can't ignore the 10-19 start when they were largely intact. They cannot beat AL East teams. Period. The rest of the AL East now features a 100 plus win caliber team and now two 90 plus caliber win teams and a rapidly improving Orioles team. The Red Sox, healthy or otherwise, can't beat those teams. They're not good enough. Without health, they can't beat anybody. They lack power. They dont walk. They dont steal bases. They have been terrible in the 9th inning all year as they must have allowed about the most runs of any team. They are terrible defensively as many players are playing out of position. 1b isn't a mess because of injuries. Nor is RF. Nor is having issues in the closing spot. You picked them to win 82 games before the season. Well, you aren't that far off.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 30, 2022 12:45:49 GMT -5
Yeaah, I mean they went 20-6 in June. They were playing really well before the plague beset them. But was it injuries? I looked back at since they lost on June 27, theyâve been in a death spiral. But at that point, their lineup was entirely healthy (minus Kiké who was hurt during the hot streak, too). Story kast played 7/12, a stretch theyâd been 5-10. I think injuries have obviously been huge, but they donât explain this team as much as it appears. Haha, "their lineup was entirely healthy" is one way you could describe a team that on 6/27 had its #1 and #2 starters on the IL, and had added #s 4 and 5 within the next several days.
Here's how I'd describe the sequence of events:
-Team was healthy and playing very well. -Pitchers started going down like cattle in a gopher field but they fought gravity for a while with some good performances from the young guys. -Pitching injuries finally caught up to them. The turning point here might have been Bello's first start against TB on 7/6; it was just a bridge too far to have to go to him to start games. -Kiké's setback, Sale's re-injury, Story's injury, and above all Devers going on the IL have put them in just a hopeless position since the all-star break.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 30, 2022 12:49:43 GMT -5
You don't go 20-6 against anybody without playing good baseball. Also, did you see the comment above mine? Between May 10th and the end of June they went 15-6 against ATL, HOU, SEA, STL, CLE, and TOR.
Yes they had a great stretch but you can't ignore the 10-19 start when they were largely intact.They cannot beat AL East teams. Period. The rest of the AL East now features a 100 plus win caliber team and now two 90 plus caliber win teams and a rapidly improving Orioles team. The Red Sox, healthy or otherwise, can't beat those teams. They're not good enough. Without health, they can't beat anybody. They lack power. They dont walk. They dont steal bases. They have been terrible in the 9th inning all year as they must have allowed about the most runs of any team. They are terrible defensively as many players are playing out of position. 1b isn't a mess because of injuries. Nor is RF. Nor is having issues in the closing spot. You picked them to win 82 games before the season. Well, you aren't that far off.Right - I certainly wouldn't ignore the 10-19 start in judging the team overall. But before the injuries they were about 10 games over .500 and in first wild card position. That - bad start and hot month included - is the kind of team they could have been had they stayed healthy. Flawed, for sure, but a playoff caliber team.
And yes, thank you for reminding me that I predicted an 82-80 season, specifically on the semi-superstitious grounds that I didn't expect their good injury luck from last season to hold up two years in a row. Maybe that's why I'm a little more forgiving than others.
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Post by manfred on Jul 30, 2022 12:50:27 GMT -5
But was it injuries? I looked back at since they lost on June 27, theyâve been in a death spiral. But at that point, their lineup was entirely healthy (minus Kiké who was hurt during the hot streak, too). Story kast played 7/12, a stretch theyâd been 5-10. I think injuries have obviously been huge, but they donât explain this team as much as it appears. Haha, "their lineup was entirely healthy" is one way you could describe a team that on 6/27 had its #1 and #2 starters on the IL, and had added #s 4 and 5 within the next several days.
Here's how I'd describe the sequence of events:
-Team was healthy and playing very well. -Pitchers started going down like cattle in a gopher field but they fought gravity for a while with some good performances from the young guys. -Pitching injuries finally caught up to them. The turning point here might have been Bello's first start against TB on 7/6; it was just a bridge too far to have to go to him to start games. -Kiké's setback, Sale's re-injury, Story's injury, and above all Devers going on the IL have put them in just a hopeless position since the all-star break.
I’m not disagreeing, especially with the last part. But I think if you look at the streaks they’ve gone through, it reveals that this team had a lot of problems besides injuries. It was going to be a slog no matter what.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 30, 2022 12:52:39 GMT -5
You don't go 20-6 against anybody without playing good baseball. Also, did you see the comment above mine? Between May 10th and the end of June they went 15-6 against ATL, HOU, SEA, STL, CLE, and TOR.
Well, clearly I was wrong there. I remembered them beating up a bunch of bad opponents, but it looks like you guys are right. Still limited sampling, but they did have a productive stretch. As it stands now, they currently have a 13.4% to make postseason, 0.1% to win World Series. 25-26 at home 25-25 away 9-13 April 14-14 May 20-6 June 7-18 July This season they have a winning record against the following teams: CLE - 5-2 DET - 5-1 HOU - 2-1 LAA - 5-4 OAK - 5-1 SEA - 6-1 STL - 2-1 TEX - 2-1 So they have a winning record against 3 playoff teams and one fringe playoff team. Against the East BAL 3-5 NYY 4-6 TBR 2-8 TOR 3-10 Just more informational on their season as a whole. Where are you seeing the 13% postseason odds? Fangraphs has it at 25%, and I actually think there's a pretty big difference in how they ought to approach the trade deadline depending on which of those two numbers you believe. Of course we don't know what their internal number is...
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 30, 2022 13:18:53 GMT -5
538 has their playoff odds at 25% as well.
It is interesting being a long time (as in 55 year) Red Sox fan and assessing each season (never mind each game). There was the pre-2004 period, for me, loaded with some big stars but unlucky, or tragic, or uninspiring results - and the post 2004 period which certainly spoils me - because it was also 2007, and 2013, and 2018. Fair or not fair, expectations changed for me since 2004.
So I am as avid a fan as anyone - and yes, perhaps more critical than some - I don't apologize for that. The hardest thing to swallow is the type of play we've seen so often this year - sloppy, poor attention to details, and mystifying slumps from some of the big bats. I also do not do advanced stats at all - I am a dinosaur - I watch the games, love the games, observe.
So that is the lens through which I watch and comment on the games. I don't do bad umping, don't do good or bad luck, or how hard balls are hit. I see who wins and loses, and how those wins or losses go.
Now, when it comes to gardening - as in heirloom tomatoes - that's where I put my effort into data and analysis!
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 30, 2022 13:20:54 GMT -5
I’ve been thinking about the AL east, I just believe we are a bad match up with Toronto this season.
I’m not worried about Tampa there scrappy. But I feel we match up good with them.
Same with MFY. They had there whole team hitting on all cylinders .
BAltimore plays us hard. It’s not like 2 seasons or 3 seasons ago.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Jul 30, 2022 13:23:40 GMT -5
Arroyo starting at 2B today Vazquez at 1B
Jeter optioned
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 30, 2022 13:28:12 GMT -5
Well, clearly I was wrong there. I remembered them beating up a bunch of bad opponents, but it looks like you guys are right. Still limited sampling, but they did have a productive stretch. As it stands now, they currently have a 13.4% to make postseason, 0.1% to win World Series. 25-26 at home 25-25 away 9-13 April 14-14 May 20-6 June 7-18 July This season they have a winning record against the following teams: CLE - 5-2 DET - 5-1 HOU - 2-1 LAA - 5-4 OAK - 5-1 SEA - 6-1 STL - 2-1 TEX - 2-1 So they have a winning record against 3 playoff teams and one fringe playoff team. Against the East BAL 3-5 NYY 4-6 TBR 2-8 TOR 3-10 Just more informational on their season as a whole. Where are you seeing the 13% postseason odds? Fangraphs has it at 25%, and I actually think there's a pretty big difference in how they ought to approach the trade deadline depending on which of those two numbers you believe. Of course we don't know what their internal number is... Right at the top baseball reference gives the following: Record: 50-51-0, 5th place in AL_East (Schedule and Results) Playoff Odds: 13.4% to make postseason, 0.1% to win World Series Manager: Alex Cora (50-51) www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2022-schedule-scores.shtml
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 30, 2022 13:38:45 GMT -5
Yes they had a great stretch but you can't ignore the 10-19 start when they were largely intact.They cannot beat AL East teams. Period. The rest of the AL East now features a 100 plus win caliber team and now two 90 plus caliber win teams and a rapidly improving Orioles team. The Red Sox, healthy or otherwise, can't beat those teams. They're not good enough. Without health, they can't beat anybody. They lack power. They dont walk. They dont steal bases. They have been terrible in the 9th inning all year as they must have allowed about the most runs of any team. They are terrible defensively as many players are playing out of position. 1b isn't a mess because of injuries. Nor is RF. Nor is having issues in the closing spot. You picked them to win 82 games before the season. Well, you aren't that far off. Right - I certainly wouldn't ignore the 10-19 start in judging the team overall. But before the injuries they were about 10 games over .500 and in first wild card position. That - bad start and hot month included - is the kind of team they could have been had they stayed healthy. Flawed, for sure, but a playoff caliber team. And yes, thank you for reminding me that I predicted an 82-80 season, specifically on the semi-superstitious grounds that I didn't expect their good injury luck from last season to hold up two years in a row. Maybe that's why I'm a little more forgiving than others. My point was that they were intact for their bad start and their revival and their revival featured no series against the AL East. That's not a coincidence. They were chewed up in the meat grinder that is the AL East. They could survive it once but not twice and by time they got around to their second trip through the AL East they did have their flood of injuries but it was more than that. The non moves prior to the season like not having a viable 1b should Dalbec tank again and Casas wasn't ready or not adequately replacing Renfroe and allowing JBJ to be a 4th OF instead and going with Barnes as closer...these moves backfired on them and left them more vulnerable when the injuries ate away at the strengths of their team. I know that games can be won or lost in the 5th inning as easily as the 9th but games are more up for grabs with a dozen outs to go. Not so much when its down to 3 outs so we are going to have to agree to disagree about the importance of having a viable closer. But I do agree with you about the evening of the law of averages that compelled you to pick them at 82 wins rather than 90. Maybe 2022 is the deal they made with the devil if they were the last team in the AL East left standing last year. I mean that last weekend, despite all the prior problems, everything fell into place perfectly for them, and this overachieving team got a Fenway home game and upset a surging Yankees team that had beaten them 7 straight times and then they stunned a 100 win Rays team with 2 dramatic walkoff victories, all while avoiding the scariest AL Easr team of them all, Toronto, who just missed the playoffs. So for the deal of being the last AL East team left standing they had to pay the price by being road kill for the other ALE teams, even Baltimore. Kind of like how they had virtually the same team in 2018 and 2019 and everything went right for the 2018 team and they won 119 games and a year later virtually the same team could only muster 84 wins. It's the mystery and magic of baseball.
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bigmarty58
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2011 Pancreatic Cancer Survivor - One of the lucky ones
Posts: 165
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Post by bigmarty58 on Jul 30, 2022 13:54:45 GMT -5
Story diagnosed with a hairline fracture, no swinging a bat for 10-14 days...
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 30, 2022 13:56:39 GMT -5
Arroyo starting at 2B today Vazquez at 1B Jeter optioned Objective evidence that people can actually get off the disabled list!
Last night Dalbec, Cordero and Duran all had positive WPA against very tough pitching, totaling .142. Verdugo chipped in an unsurprising .221.
And Xander and JDM combined for -.426. You couldn't make this stuff up.
People who are down on Duran forget that as recently as July 6 he was hitting .325 / .381 / .519 (expected .290 / .350 / .459), in 84 PA.
Since then he's had 60 PA and hit .121 / .150 / .190 (expected .137 / .166 / .191). No one's that bad unless they're severely messed up. There's almost no such thing as a AAAA hitter, and translations from AAA to MLB are a real thing that works. Despite his overall numbers, he can really hit.
What he hasn't been able to do is fix his swing and / or approach while the entire lineup struggles around him, and while his litany of defensive failures is (presumably) on his mind. That's why I want the Sox to trade JDM and make Duran the DH, and move Franchy to RF ASAP.
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Post by manfred on Jul 30, 2022 14:03:28 GMT -5
Arroyo starting at 2B today Vazquez at 1B Jeter optioned Objective evidence that people can actually get off the disabled list!
Last night Dalbec, Cordero and Duran all had positive WPA against very tough pitching, totaling .142. Verdugo chipped in an unsurprising .221.
And Xander and JDM combined for -.426. You couldn't make this stuff up.
People who are down on Duran forget that as recently as July 6 he was hitting .325 / .381 / .519 (expected .290 / .350 / .459), in 84 PA.
Since then he's had 60 PA and hit .121 / .150 / .190 (expected .137 / .166 / .191). No one's that bad unless they're severely messed up. There's almost no such thing as a AAAA hitter, and translations from AAA to MLB are a real thing that works. Despite his overall numbers, he can really hit.
What he hasn't been able to do is fix his swing and / or approach while the entire lineup struggles around him, and while his litany of defensive failures is (presumably) on his mind. That's why I want the Sox to trade JDM and make Duran the DH, and move Franchy to RF ASAP.
I like this idea. It would be good to get him the at bats without having the distraction of fielding for now. I’d love to see him make the necessary adjustments to get back on track. His upside is too tantalizing not to do anything they can to unlock it.
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