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Post by seamus on Aug 31, 2022 16:48:21 GMT -5
I went with Hernandez. My pet idea right now is that they re-sign him as their SS and go for splashes in the outfield (e.g. Nimmo, trade for Reynolds), leaving the top of the SS market alone. (benogliviesbrother, I think Devers is one of the most aesthetically pleasing players to watch. I actually think the fun factor is so great that it's worth taking the chance of an albatross contract. I'm sorry that you don't feel the same way because that seems just miserable.) Kiké can't play SS. That being said, I completely agree with your point in regard to Devers. I mean, he wouldn't be my first choice, but he's played shortstop plenty of times, including this season. No reason to think he couldn't perform competently there.
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Post by iliketacos on Aug 31, 2022 19:07:10 GMT -5
Kiké can't play SS. That being said, I completely agree with your point in regard to Devers. I mean, he wouldn't be my first choice, but he's played shortstop plenty of times, including this season. No reason to think he couldn't perform competently there. He's below average at SS. CF is his best position. He is competent as a 2B.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 31, 2022 23:11:54 GMT -5
You are missing the obvious, the most exciting player in the Eastern League.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 1, 2022 7:40:58 GMT -5
I’ll guess Bogaerts, but prefer Correa.
If I could pick one to avoid it’s Swanson.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 1, 2022 12:29:19 GMT -5
You are missing the obvious, the most exciting player in the Eastern League. I think he's better at CF, which is more of a position of need given who's behind him at Greenville.
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Post by seamus on Sept 1, 2022 14:25:14 GMT -5
I’ll guess Bogaerts, but prefer Correa. If I could pick one to avoid it’s Swanson. See, I think I'm the opposite. I think Correa's the one to avoid given the way his defense has fallen off this year and Swanson's huge advantage in terms of history of durability.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Sept 1, 2022 14:39:03 GMT -5
On pure predicted future performance, I think you have to put Swanson well behind the other three guys at the top of the market. The offensive numbers are worse (despite the fact that he's actually outperforming his career BABIP by way more than even Bogaerts is this year), and he's not so young that you can bank on him continuing to be a truly elite defender for long. ZIPS has him pegged at 2.6, 2.5 and 2.4 fWAR over the next three years, markedly less than its projections for Turner (5.6, 5.5, 5.1), Correa (5.1, 4.8, and 4.1) and Bogaerts (4.5, 4.4, 4.0).
Of course, the market probably recognizes this, so maybe you can snag him for an amount that makes him a better value than the other guys.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on Sept 1, 2022 14:43:06 GMT -5
I’ll guess Bogaerts, but prefer Correa. If I could pick one to avoid it’s Swanson. See, I think I'm the opposite. I think Correa's the one to avoid given the way his defense has fallen off this year and Swanson's huge advantage in terms of history of durability. I’m not going to take one off year defensively at age 27 and extrapolate it, and bet on Swanson who has a career .316 BABIP and is sitting at .370 this year. Swanson in my eyes is a league average hitter and a plus glove. Correa is 25-35% better than average at the plate and there’s a good chance he’s an above average to plus defender. I know he’ll get paid more, but there’s just no way I’m banking on Swanson as a hitter at his projected AAV.
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Post by xdmo on Sept 1, 2022 23:20:22 GMT -5
I'm almost 99 percent positive Correa is signing with the Orioles this off-season. There were rumblings last off-season with the connection. Now that the Orioles have made noise after promoting the two number 1 prospects in MLB in the same season, it'll get even louder about the Correa connection.
The Sox will have competition with Xander. The GM in the Chicago Cubs front office was in connection to the original singing of Xander with the Sox back almost 14 years ago----Jed Hoyer.
The Sox best play is to probably let Story play there (short stop) full-time the next three years there with depth options.
Arroyo is intriguing at 2B, Emmanuel Valdez gives them a opposite side platoon to pair with him if he gets injured. The Sox got to go cheap and role the dice on at least on one position, this seems like the best position to gamble on to hope for the best.
--My 2 cents.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 9, 2022 7:46:49 GMT -5
After comments by Bloom, I change my vote from Story to Bogaerts. I think Henry is afraid of another last place finish, and he will approve the money for Bogaerts, a RF, and starting pitching. With a little more spending in 2022, IMO the Red Sox would have won enough games to easily have one of the wildcard spots.
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Post by jbuttah on Sept 9, 2022 8:43:24 GMT -5
There is just no way Bloom signed Story to a 23m/year contract to play 2b. They're gonna sign either Devers or Bogaerts to a long term contract, but whoever they do sign, Story will be playing SS next year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 9, 2022 8:58:00 GMT -5
There is just no way Bloom signed Story to a 23m/year contract to play 2b. They're gonna sign either Devers or Bogaerts to a long term contract, but whoever they do sign, Story will be playing SS next year. I don't agree at all. Story's arm strength was steadily declining before he signed and I doubt if there's any change. It was a known issue when he signed.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 9, 2022 9:14:27 GMT -5
There is just no way Bloom signed Story to a 23m/year contract to play 2b. They're gonna sign either Devers or Bogaerts to a long term contract, but whoever they do sign, Story will be playing SS next year. Gotta push back on this as well. If they aren't going to invest $20+ on a dedicated DH going forward, why not spend it on a different position than we are used to? If Story is all in on 2nd during his Boston tenure, it's a huge win.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Sept 28, 2022 11:04:55 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Sept 28, 2022 11:32:32 GMT -5
With the new shift rule, second basemen may need to be almost - almost - as rangy as a SS, which bodes well for Story.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Sept 28, 2022 12:00:21 GMT -5
Don't you need to factor in Mayer in the decision to sign a SS for 6+ years? If he is as good as everyone says, and ready to go sometime in 2024, what do you do with the SS on the roster getting paid ~$25 mil/year? Whether you sign Xander, Correa, Turner or Swanson, where are they playing 2 years from now? I would have to think you either plan on moving them over to 3B, in which case Devers becomes the odd man out, or you plan on trading Mayer.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 28, 2022 12:11:46 GMT -5
Don't you need to factor in Mayer in the decision to sign a SS for 6+ years? If he is as good as everyone says, and ready to go sometime in 2024, what do you do with the SS on the roster getting paid ~$25 mil/year? Whether you sign Xander, Correa, Turner or Swanson, where are they playing 2 years from now? I would have to think you either plan on moving them over to 3B, in which case Devers becomes the odd man out, or you plan on trading Mayer. I've always said that best practice is not building any prospect into MLB team plans prior to them at least reaching Double-A. Too much can happen.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Sept 28, 2022 12:33:24 GMT -5
Don't you need to factor in Mayer in the decision to sign a SS for 6+ years? If he is as good as everyone says, and ready to go sometime in 2024, what do you do with the SS on the roster getting paid ~$25 mil/year? Whether you sign Xander, Correa, Turner or Swanson, where are they playing 2 years from now? I would have to think you either plan on moving them over to 3B, in which case Devers becomes the odd man out, or you plan on trading Mayer. I've always said that best practice is not building any prospect into MLB team plans prior to them at least reaching Double-A. Too much can happen. Generally yes I agree with you on that, banking on prospects too soon is a good way to make yourself look foolish. But Mayer seems like a good enough prospect to me that he at least needs to factor in to the decision somewhat. If you have Story, Devers and an SS all signed through 2027, you are potentially pigeonholing yourself. What would you do then if Mayer is as good as we think? Trade one of those guys only a few years after they signed? Maybe it's not something that I need to worry about, but it just seems to me there are other ways to spend the money that include Mayer in the calculation.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2022 13:40:20 GMT -5
I guessed Xander - honestly with all the money coming off the books in a month they can realistically sign whatever guy they want. That they told Xander point blank "you're not going anywhere" at the deadline feels kinda telling. I value that action more than the cheap, "insulting" offer they made in March on the off chance Scott Boras had taken to the bottle and would advise his client to make a bad financial decision.
Can we talk about Philly/Xander for a second? I know there are Dombrowski rumors because he's signed Xander before, but these are some of the commitments the Phillies have going forward:
Bryce Harper - 25 mil a year until 2032 Zach Wheeler - 23 mil a year until 2025 JT Realmuto - 23 mil a year until 2026 Castellanos - 20 mil a year until 2027 Schwarber - 20 mil a year until 2026 Aaron Nola - 16 mil a year for next year Rhys Hopkins - final year of arb
I realize Dombrowski might just say YOLO and sign him anyway, but I don't know how Philly adds Xander, pitching, and avoids long term luxury tax hell all at the same time. Just one extra thing that makes me think Xander back to the Sox is more likely than not
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Post by seamus on Sept 28, 2022 13:43:17 GMT -5
Seems like borrowing worry. Having too many great options at shortstop is just about the best problem a team could have. If Mayer makes it by 2024/2025 and forces his way into the lineup while you still have Big Name SS/Devers/Casas/Story in the infield, then you probably just rotate the older shortstop and Devers through 3B/DH, and then adjust when somebody in the infield gets banged up (because you should generally assume somebody will).
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Post by awalkinthepark on Sept 28, 2022 14:10:46 GMT -5
Seems like borrowing worry. Having too many great options at shortstop is just about the best problem a team could have. If Mayer makes it by 2024/2025 and forces his way into the lineup while you still have Big Name SS/Devers/Casas/Story in the infield, then you probably just rotate the older shortstop and Devers through 3B/DH, and then adjust when somebody in the infield gets banged up (because you should generally assume somebody will). Shifting Devers to DH, or even shifting someone like Correa or Xander to a corner OF, would be a nightmare in my opinion given how much money they are asking for. So much of the value they provide comes from their position, and dropping a player that far down the defensive spectrum is taking a sledgehammer to that value. It would be a complete disaster to give out $250 million to a full time DH. The only way that contract is justified is if they are one of the top 5 hitters in the game.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 28, 2022 15:26:43 GMT -5
My spidey senses tell me they sign Correa to a whopper early in free agency
- Cora connection - Zero serious attempts to lock Bogaerts up - Correa's weird decision to sign that deal with that Twins, like he really just wanted to be a 2023 free agent instead
Kinda feels like one of those stories you hear about from NBA free agency
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Post by kman22 on Sept 28, 2022 16:05:23 GMT -5
My spidey senses tell me they sign Correa to a whopper early in free agency - Cora connection - Zero serious attempts to lock Bogaerts up - Correa's weird decision to sign that deal with that Twins, like he really just wanted to be a 2023 free agent instead Kinda feels like one of those stories you hear about from NBA free agency Also no draft pick comp because he got the QO last year, right?
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 28, 2022 16:23:29 GMT -5
I don't recall where I saw it (it may have been on SP.com), but it showed how much extra ground the hitter/base runner can cover on his way to first base based on the strength or weakness of the SS's arm. I was surprised how much extra ground the runner can cover if the throw is just a bit slower. In my mind, it made a pretty strong case for keeping Story at 2B, where he was excellent this year when he was in the lineup.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 28, 2022 17:32:35 GMT -5
My spidey senses tell me they sign Correa to a whopper early in free agency - Cora connection - Zero serious attempts to lock Bogaerts up - Correa's weird decision to sign that deal with that Twins, like he really just wanted to be a 2023 free agent instead Kinda feels like one of those stories you hear about from NBA free agency Also no draft pick comp because he got the QO last year, right? That is correct
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