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Post by lostinnewjersey on Oct 18, 2022 9:32:43 GMT -5
Maybe Francona's being cagey and plans to bring in Bieber early. An overworked Cortes on short rest might not be a great idea.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2022 9:45:12 GMT -5
Not feeling good about Cleveland tonight. You have to start Bieber. I don't get it.
It's been such a crappy baseball year I kind of expect a very beatable Yankees team to win just because. The lineup they throw out there after the #4 spot in the order is so mediocre and their closing situation is so unsettled that this team is so beatable. I hope Houston kicks the crap out of the Yankees should they advance tonight. If not, Philly or San Diego are hardly juggernauts although you'd think the Padres should be. Maybe they can will be in this post-season. I could go for that.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 18, 2022 9:47:12 GMT -5
1 WAR is a little over $8 million, and fangraphs has Betts being worth $53 million this year. (They list this at the bottom of their player pages.)
Betts is doing what he needs to do to make this a good contract for the Dodgers - putting up surplus value at the beginning (though almost all of that surplus came this year and scarcely any last year). But there is a decade left on that contract and with each year that passes the future of the contract becomes more likely to pencil out in the red for the team. Incidentally, I hadn't realized that Betts just turned 30...
But funnily enough, it would sort of make sense for the Red Sox to add him now that they have a bunch of money to spend and a giant hole in RF. I mean I'd rather have Mookie on a 10 year/25.6 AAV contract than whatever Judge is gonna get.
I've said on here before that these $$$ per WAR calculations to figure out a player's value are silly and meaningless. The latest estimates, as far as I know, are that a team of replacement level players would win about 50 games, give or take. To get to 90 wins at $8M per win, you'd have to add $320M in salary. FG has Mookie at 6.6 WAR in 2022. If a 78-win team such as the 2022 Red Sox replaced two 0-WAR guys with a pair of Mookies, it would win another 13 games and nudge the win total over 90. But you'd need to spend another $106 million in salary. A 91-win season would have been enjoyable compared to what we got, but JWH might have been a bit peeved over the $340 million payroll. Or to look at it another way, if the RS had signed Mookie to a contract with an AAV or $53 million (and based on reporting, it sounds like he would have turned that down and countered with a demand for more!), they would have had a payroll of $287 million and won 85 games, just enough to watch the PS from home like they're doing now. WAR per $$$ stats are as meaningless as fielding percentage. It's $8 million/WAR *on the free agent market.* Obviously every team depends on getting a bunch of surplus value from cost-controlled players. And you wouldn't need to pay Mookie $50 million a year for a 6 WAR season because a long-term contract takes into account his decline years.
But your comment is a good illustration of why a successful team needs that young talent - you can't buy your way to a winning record with free agents alone.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 18, 2022 9:53:08 GMT -5
With the way the schedule has played out, starting Cortes today means the Yankees can only get one start from each of Cole and Cortes in the ALCS, if they make it that far. For a game 7 Cole would have 3 days' rest and Cortes would have 2 days' so maybe they could each go a couple innings but not more than that I would think.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 18, 2022 10:12:21 GMT -5
With the way the schedule has played out, starting Cortes today means the Yankees can only get one start from each of Cole and Cortes in the ALCS, if they make it that far. For a game 7 Cole would have 3 days' rest and Cortes would have 2 days' so maybe they could each go a couple innings but not more than that I would think. Obviously I am rooting pretty hard for Cleveland tonight, but the Yankees getting trucked by Houston, who they already hate almost as much as us, would be quite alright as well.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 18, 2022 10:24:43 GMT -5
Maybe Francona's being cagey and plans to bring in Bieber early. An overworked Cortes on short rest might not be a great idea. Reverse of 1948? When the Indians won the pennant because they beat the Red Sox in a one-game playoff because the Red Sox started mediocre Danny Galehouse (8-8, 4.01), when they had Mel Parnell (15-9, 3.14) and Ellis Kinder (10-7, 3.74). "Galehouse had pitched just twice in the last three weeks, posting an 8.10 ERA in 6 2/3 innings of work." "Parnell ... went to bed early the night before assuming he would draw the start." gewrite.medium.com/red-october-oct-5-1948-the-curious-tale-of-denny-galehouse-c5eeb224b56b
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Post by benzinger on Oct 18, 2022 10:50:28 GMT -5
I guess Booney has zero faith in Taillon and would rather get 4-5 innings(potentially) from Cortes instead. I’m also not sure where German has been this series.
As for Cleveland, maybe Civale is just an opener here and will go 1-2 innings? Interesting to see the way Tito plays this one. He’s one of the best there is.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 18, 2022 11:03:56 GMT -5
There aren't many situations where I'd prefer a starter on 3 days' rest to one who's fully rested. And I think it's notable that the bad manager in this series is going with the starter on 3 days' rest while the good manager is avoiding it.
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Post by greenmonster on Oct 18, 2022 11:07:29 GMT -5
Are the managers even the ones making these decisions or are they being pushed down from all the smart people in the front office?
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Post by incandenza on Oct 18, 2022 11:26:20 GMT -5
Are the managers even the ones making these decisions or are they being pushed down from all the smart people in the front office? That's possible!
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Post by ramireja on Oct 18, 2022 12:17:36 GMT -5
Not feeling good about Cleveland tonight. You have to start Bieber. I don't get it.It's been such a crappy baseball year I kind of expect a very beatable Yankees team to win just because. The lineup they throw out there after the #4 spot in the order is so mediocre and their closing situation is so unsettled that this team is so beatable. I hope Houston kicks the crap out of the Yankees should they advance tonight. If not, Philly or San Diego are hardly juggernauts although you'd think the Padres should be. Maybe they can will be in this post-season. I could go for that. Civale has arguably been their best starter in the 2nd half of the season (see below), although its close with Bieber. Regardless, if you're able to utilize them both tonight, that could be big.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2022 12:23:01 GMT -5
There aren't many situations where I'd prefer a starter on 3 days' rest to one who's fully rested. And I think it's notable that the bad manager in this series is going with the starter on 3 days' rest while the good manager is avoiding it. That same good manager once started a starter on 2 days rest in a decisive Game 7 - and it turned out to be an excellent decision
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 18, 2022 12:40:12 GMT -5
Not feeling good about Cleveland tonight. You have to start Bieber. I don't get it.It's been such a crappy baseball year I kind of expect a very beatable Yankees team to win just because. The lineup they throw out there after the #4 spot in the order is so mediocre and their closing situation is so unsettled that this team is so beatable. I hope Houston kicks the crap out of the Yankees should they advance tonight. If not, Philly or San Diego are hardly juggernauts although you'd think the Padres should be. Maybe they can will be in this post-season. I could go for that. Civale has arguably been their best starter in the 2nd half of the season (see below), although its close with Bieber. Regardless, if you're able to utilize them both tonight, that could be big. Interesting - I didn't realize Civale was pitching that well. Might be unconventional, but kinda wonder about something like Civale -> Karinchak/Hentges (for any jams) -> Bieber -> 6 outs from Clase? So it's like 2-3 bulk innings, shutdown reliever, 2-3 bulk innings, shutdown reliever.
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 18, 2022 14:48:24 GMT -5
I still Love Costas for this
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Post by incandenza on Oct 18, 2022 15:09:49 GMT -5
Cleveland will win 4-1 4-3 5-4. It has come to me as a vision.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 18, 2022 15:19:21 GMT -5
This one's got bad vibes
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 18, 2022 15:25:39 GMT -5
Get someone warming!
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 18, 2022 15:26:31 GMT -5
Too late. Could see that coming.
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Oct 18, 2022 15:28:05 GMT -5
Civale's ruining my day
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 18, 2022 15:29:52 GMT -5
Shortstop looked like he wanted to cry after that infield single
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Post by xdmo on Oct 18, 2022 15:41:49 GMT -5
Cleveland living up to the reputation of being the biggest choking franchise alive.
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Post by xdmo on Oct 18, 2022 15:46:29 GMT -5
Cleveland living up to the reputation of being the biggest choking franchise alive. 1997 World Series. 1999 ALDS. 2007 ALCS. 2016 World Series. Now 2022 ALDS.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Oct 18, 2022 15:46:51 GMT -5
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Post by xdmo on Oct 18, 2022 15:58:42 GMT -5
This is great. Keep letting the 2 best hitters on the Yankees beat you up. God I hope the Astros aren't this dumb.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 18, 2022 16:04:45 GMT -5
Kwan maybe should have tried running hard on that ball he hit in play in an elimination playoff game?
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