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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 18, 2022 16:08:11 GMT -5
Kwan maybe should have tried running hard on that ball he hit in play in an elimination playoff game? He had a base runner in front of him.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 18, 2022 16:08:54 GMT -5
Vibe shift
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Post by kevfc89 on Oct 18, 2022 16:26:27 GMT -5
omg cleveland, challenge would have overturned that play
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Post by xdmo on Oct 18, 2022 16:26:39 GMT -5
Took Cortes 6 pitches to get out of that inning. Way to go Cleveland.
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Post by greenmonster on Oct 18, 2022 16:28:15 GMT -5
Took Cortes 6 pitches to get out of that inning. Way to go Cleveland. Making Cortes really work on short rest
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Post by incandenza on Oct 18, 2022 16:29:55 GMT -5
Kwan maybe should have tried running hard on that ball he hit in play in an elimination playoff game? He had a base runner in front of him. I know but he didn't know what was gonna happen on that play; the runner could have ended up on third. Anyway you can tell he just misjudged it because he just walked and made sad faces until he saw it might fall in and then he took off sprinting.
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Post by kevfc89 on Oct 18, 2022 16:40:19 GMT -5
the bottom of this cleveland lineup is just brutally bad
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Post by benzinger on Oct 18, 2022 16:42:54 GMT -5
The good news for Tito is that Bieber will be nice and rested for Opening Day now.
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Post by greenmonster on Oct 18, 2022 16:51:13 GMT -5
Been battling health issue for awhile, current contract done after 2022...Is this potentially the last game of Tito's career?
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Post by xdmo on Oct 18, 2022 16:58:26 GMT -5
This game is getting close to being over halfway through.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Oct 18, 2022 17:04:11 GMT -5
I am just surprised that Civale was still starting. he was awful. Bad choice
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 18, 2022 17:06:32 GMT -5
Awful luck.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2022 17:08:43 GMT -5
Had a bad feeling this was going to happen.
For some reason my memories are of Cleveland failing to clinch at home, like in 1999 the Sox beat them in Game 5 and they had 2 cracks ar winning the 2016 World Series at home after losing Game 5 in Chicago. And they didnt close out the Yankees when they had them on the ropes.
It wouldn't have guaranteed anything but I still think Bieber should have gotten the start.
I know everybody thinks the Astros are going to crush the Yankees and they should, but I think that this year has been so aggravating that I anticipate the Yankees being back in the Series.
So the NL has the 5 and 6 seeds in the NLCS.
But the AL has the opposite result going on. Both teams with byes, the 1 and 2 seeds are going to play in the ALCS.
So incandenza, I think I'll still complain if the Sox are building an 85 - 88 win team as opposed to trying to build a 1st place type team with an annual 95 win expectation.
Byes and 111 win seasons dont guarantee anything but I'd still take my chances with teams like that then some lightning in a bottle 88 win team, even if they do emerge victorious at times.
Makes me appreciate the 2018 team all the more. They were a juggernaut in the regular season and kicked butt in the postseason, too. Hard to do but they did it.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 18, 2022 17:21:29 GMT -5
Had a bad feeling this was going to happen. For some reason my memories are of Cleveland failing to clinch at home, like in 1999 the Sox beat them in Game 5 and they had 2 cracks ar winning the 2016 World Series at home after losing Game 5 in Chicago. And they didnt close out the Yankees when they had them on the ropes. It wouldn't have guaranteed anything but I still think Bieber should have gotten the start. I know everybody thinks the Astros are going to crush the Yankees and they should, but I think that this year has been so aggravating that I anticipate the Yankees being back in the Series.So the NL has the 5 and 6 seeds in the NLCS. But the AL has the opposite result going on. Both teams with byes, the 1 and 2 seeds are going to play in the ALCS. So incandenza, I think I'll still complain if the Sox are building an 85 - 88 win team as opposed to trying to build a 1st place type team with an annual 95 win expectation. Byes and 111 win seasons dont guarantee anything but I'd still take my chances with teams like that then some lightning in a bottle 88 win team, even if they do emerge victorious at times. Makes me appreciate the 2018 team all the more. They were a juggernaut in the regular season and kicked butt in the postseason, too. Hard to do but they did it. I don't *actually* want to have this conversation, but you make so many comments like this it makes me wonder what your religious or spiritual beliefs are. You really seem to believe there is a hidden order to the cosmos. Teams have souls. Narratives have the power of fate. That sort of thing. Personally I give the Astros about a 60% chance of winning the LCS.
Anyway, as for the 85-88 win thing... I don't want the Red Sox (or any other team) to aim for that. My point has just been that this system incentivizes them to do so. The fact that two juggernaut teams got bounced from the divisional round and a third still might, and at any rate nearly did, hardly makes it seem like you really need to build a juggernaut to succeed in the playoffs.
But yes, the 2018 team looks all the more impressive against the background of these other teams' playoff failures - still the most impressive team of this century, I'd say.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2022 17:34:00 GMT -5
Had a bad feeling this was going to happen. For some reason my memories are of Cleveland failing to clinch at home, like in 1999 the Sox beat them in Game 5 and they had 2 cracks ar winning the 2016 World Series at home after losing Game 5 in Chicago. And they didnt close out the Yankees when they had them on the ropes. It wouldn't have guaranteed anything but I still think Bieber should have gotten the start. I know everybody thinks the Astros are going to crush the Yankees and they should, but I think that this year has been so aggravating that I anticipate the Yankees being back in the Series.So the NL has the 5 and 6 seeds in the NLCS. But the AL has the opposite result going on. Both teams with byes, the 1 and 2 seeds are going to play in the ALCS. So incandenza, I think I'll still complain if the Sox are building an 85 - 88 win team as opposed to trying to build a 1st place type team with an annual 95 win expectation. Byes and 111 win seasons dont guarantee anything but I'd still take my chances with teams like that then some lightning in a bottle 88 win team, even if they do emerge victorious at times. Makes me appreciate the 2018 team all the more. They were a juggernaut in the regular season and kicked butt in the postseason, too. Hard to do but they did it. I don't *actually* want to have this conversation, but you make so many comments like this it makes me wonder what your religious or spiritual beliefs are. You really seem to believe there is a hidden order to the cosmos. Teams have souls. Narratives have the power of fate. That sort of thing. Personally I give the Astros about a 60% chance of winning the LCS.
Anyway, as for the 85-88 win thing... I don't want the Red Sox (or any other team) to aim for that. My point has just been that this system incentivizes them to do so. The fact that two juggernaut teams got bounced from the divisional round and a third still might, and at any rate nearly did, hardly makes it seem like you really need to build a juggernaut to succeed in the playoffs. But yes, the 2018 team looks all the more impressive against the background of these other teams' playoff failures - still the most impressive team of this century, I'd say.
I'm personally having a crappy year and the baseball that I lean on to get me thru the tough times has been crappy, too unfortunately so at this point I don't expect anything to go right. I was hoping the Yankees would be out so I could truly enjoy the baseball without a rooting interest. My point is while teams can be disincentived I still think it's an advantage to have the better team and have the bye. And frankly, I have trouble warming up to the idea of a 6 seed winning 83 games....at some point it will be a sub .500 team going off on a hot streak. It could be anybody, even the Red Sox. Would I enjoy it? Sure, the bottom line is winning championships. But it will feel cheap and watered down. I liked Theo's aim of winning 95 every year. Most of the time in that era they hit that mark. That feels like a solid team instead off all these 3rd place 85 win teams jockeying for position.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2022 17:37:23 GMT -5
Another thing I read was some article about how Boone was going to be fired because of Game 3, which seemed ludicrous to me as he was following Cashman's minions' game plan just like their FO likes.
Had that vibe of an article that was going to look stupid real soon.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 18, 2022 17:54:28 GMT -5
I don't *actually* want to have this conversation, but you make so many comments like this it makes me wonder what your religious or spiritual beliefs are. You really seem to believe there is a hidden order to the cosmos. Teams have souls. Narratives have the power of fate. That sort of thing. Personally I give the Astros about a 60% chance of winning the LCS.
Anyway, as for the 85-88 win thing... I don't want the Red Sox (or any other team) to aim for that. My point has just been that this system incentivizes them to do so. The fact that two juggernaut teams got bounced from the divisional round and a third still might, and at any rate nearly did, hardly makes it seem like you really need to build a juggernaut to succeed in the playoffs. But yes, the 2018 team looks all the more impressive against the background of these other teams' playoff failures - still the most impressive team of this century, I'd say.
I'm personally having a crappy year and the baseball that I lean on to get me thru the tough times has been crappy, too unfortunately so at this point I don't expect anything to go right. I was hoping the Yankees would be out so I could truly enjoy the baseball without a rooting interest. My point is while teams can be disincentived I still think it's an advantage to have the better team and have the bye. And frankly, I have trouble warming up to the idea of a 6 seed winning 83 games....at some point it will be a sub .500 team going off on a hot streak. It could be anybody, even the Red Sox. Would I enjoy it? Sure, the bottom line is winning championships. But it will feel cheap and watered down.I liked Theo's aim of winning 95 every year. Most of the time in that era they hit that mark. That feels like a solid team instead off all these 3rd place 85 win teams jockeying for position. I agree, it's a bummer! When they announced the new system I went back to see what the cutoff would have been in recent years if they had had this sytem in place. I think a couple of years in the NL a sub-.500 team would have made it in. It'll happen.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 18, 2022 18:26:13 GMT -5
You know what's kind of babyish? Celebrating a series win by mocking a player on the other team's celebration from three days ago.
Anyway... Cleveland got impresively far considering they scored just 17 runs in 7 postseason games. But we missed the free shot. Oh well. Now the Astros have to hold the Maginot line.
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Post by manfred on Oct 18, 2022 18:28:55 GMT -5
Not the centerpiece of Tito’s HOF case. Have to start your ace.
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Post by xdmo on Oct 18, 2022 18:54:47 GMT -5
Civale ended up with a 81 ERA for the series. Neat.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 18, 2022 19:32:28 GMT -5
I'm personally having a crappy year and the baseball that I lean on to get me thru the tough times has been crappy, too unfortunately so at this point I don't expect anything to go right. I was hoping the Yankees would be out so I could truly enjoy the baseball without a rooting interest. My point is while teams can be disincentived I still think it's an advantage to have the better team and have the bye. And frankly, I have trouble warming up to the idea of a 6 seed winning 83 games....at some point it will be a sub .500 team going off on a hot streak. It could be anybody, even the Red Sox. Would I enjoy it? Sure, the bottom line is winning championships. But it will feel cheap and watered down.I liked Theo's aim of winning 95 every year. Most of the time in that era they hit that mark. That feels like a solid team instead off all these 3rd place 85 win teams jockeying for position. I agree, it's a bummer! When they announced the new system I went back to see what the cutoff would have been in recent years if they had had this system in place. I think a couple of years in the NL a sub-.500 team would have made it in. It'll happen. Previous systems presented the risk of mediocre teams advancing deep into the PS or even winning the WS, too. The 1973 NL Champion Mets (82-79) come quickly to mind. Ditto for the 1987 WS Champion Twins. But at least those two teams each won a division to get to the PS. The current system is in its first year and we're already seeing that it's a joke. The third-place Phils who finished 14 games out of second place and won 24 fewer games than the Dodgers are in the NLCS. Yippee!
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 18, 2022 20:04:11 GMT -5
Had a bad feeling this was going to happen. For some reason my memories are of Cleveland failing to clinch at home, like in 1999 the Sox beat them in Game 5 and they had 2 cracks ar winning the 2016 World Series at home after losing Game 5 in Chicago. And they didnt close out the Yankees when they had them on the ropes. It wouldn't have guaranteed anything but I still think Bieber should have gotten the start. I know everybody thinks the Astros are going to crush the Yankees and they should, but I think that this year has been so aggravating that I anticipate the Yankees being back in the Series. I don't expect the 'Stros to crush the MFYs. It'll be a competitive series. But Houston will be a clear favorite, probably with about the same odds the MFY had over the Guardians. FG hasn't updated its WS odds yet, but the MFYs will be well below 25 percent, I anticipate. Game 1 is huge. Houston has gotten to rest its pitching and the MFY have to make the flight tonight. My mood will darken a lot if the MFYs take the first game.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 18, 2022 20:59:54 GMT -5
538 has WS win odds at 37% Astros, 28% MFY, 18% Padres, 17% Phillies
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 18, 2022 22:26:32 GMT -5
On paper the Astros look better but they both have pythagorean records of 106-56 except Houston finished with that record and the Yankees lost enough close games to fall 7 games short of that record.
I feel like the Astros offense should be better than the Yankees but it was barely better than the Red Sox.
The Yankees pitching has been damn good but Houston's pitching has been amazing. The Astros need Altuve to be a spark plug and Verlander needs to dominate. Hopefully Alvarez continues to be this decade's version of Big Papi.
I still can't shake the feeling that the Yankees finally get past Houston and wind up playing against a weaker NL team. I was hoping that either the Dodgers, Braves, or Mets would represent the NL if the Yankees get in.
Just hope Hiuston plays their best ballin this series.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 19, 2022 16:19:03 GMT -5
I've said on here before that these $$$ per WAR calculations to figure out a player's value are silly and meaningless. The latest estimates, as far as I know, are that a team of replacement level players would win about 50 games, give or take. To get to 90 wins at $8M per win, you'd have to add $320M in salary. FG has Mookie at 6.6 WAR in 2022. If a 78-win team such as the 2022 Red Sox replaced two 0-WAR guys with a pair of Mookies, it would win another 13 games and nudge the win total over 90. But you'd need to spend another $106 million in salary. A 91-win season would have been enjoyable compared to what we got, but JWH might have been a bit peeved over the $340 million payroll. Or to look at it another way, if the RS had signed Mookie to a contract with an AAV or $53 million (and based on reporting, it sounds like he would have turned that down and countered with a demand for more!), they would have had a payroll of $287 million and won 85 games, just enough to watch the PS from home like they're doing now. WAR per $$$ stats are as meaningless as fielding percentage. It's $8 million/WAR *on the free agent market.* Obviously every team depends on getting a bunch of surplus value from cost-controlled players. And you wouldn't need to pay Mookie $50 million a year for a 6 WAR season because a long-term contract takes into account his decline years.
But your comment is a good illustration of why a successful team needs that young talent - you can't buy your way to a winning record with free agents alone.
Your point (the one foreverred9 also made) is well taken. I fully understand that $8M/1 WAR is the going rate on the FA market, but these discussions are usually in the context of how much it would cost to sign a FA or to retain a player who's about to be a FA (like Mookie in the winter of 2019-'20). Using the $5M figure, as foreverred9 suggests, supports a point I often make on here. That is that these long-term mega contracts are destructive for the teams giving them out. At $5M per 1 WAR, Mookie contributed $33M in FG WAR this year, not $53M. It means he'll be posting a lot of negative value if he turns into Andrew McCutchen in a couple of years.
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