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League Championship Series
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Post by incandenza on Oct 23, 2022 17:23:53 GMT -5
A lot of people here thought the Red Sox should have waved the white flag at the trade deadline because even if they made the playoffs they had a minuscule chance of winning the World Series - 0.7%, per fangraphs. Well the Phillies were at 1.9%. Heck, the Guardians were at 0.5%. I wonder if the people who thought the Red Sox should have traded Eovaldi and JDM for whatever 35 FV prospects they could get think the Phillies and Guardians should have been sellers at the deadline?
Except that the Phillies were getting better as a team and the red Sox were falling apart. I mean it was pretty obvious to anybody watching the team. Are you really surprised they were the weakest of 5 AL East teams and wound up nowhere near the wild card. To make the playoffs, the Phillies had to top the Brewers. I'm not married to those odds you constantly quote from fangraphs. The Phillies and Guardians were improving as teams as the year wore on. The Red Sox had one really good stretch that didnt include any AL East competition. Any surprise that once the Sox got a steady diet of AL East teams they withered and died? If it was I'm not sure what you were watching. At the very least the Sox should have gotten under the luxury tax limit as it is foolish to wind up just above the limit for a team that clearly wasn't worth it. The past always looks inevitable in retrospect. But from May 10th to June 26th the Red Sox were pretty much the best team in baseball. I'm not sure why you treat their record against the AL East as some sort of kabbalic signifier but they went 14-4 against playoff teams during that stretch (HOU, SEA, CLE, and STL) so it's not like they were just beating up on bad teams.
Then they went 10-18 the rest of the way to the trade deadline, largely due to what you'll recall was a ghastly string of injuries. So that meant they couldn't possibly get healthy and return to their May-June form? What did it mean, then, when the Yankees went 10-18 in August? Or when the Bluy Jays went 10-18 from June 16th to July 14th? Or when the Guardians went 10-17 from June 18th to July 13th? Or when the Padres went 9-17 from June 17th to July 14th? Or when the Rays finished the season 8-20? Or when the Phillies finished the season 7-13?
I'm not married to fangraphs odds either, but they're a better rubric than saying the Red Sox' slump when their entire rotation was hurt revealed the soul of the team, whereas the hot streak that preceded it can just be asterisked away. The Red Sox and Guardians had almost identical odds as of the trade deadline, for both making the playoffs and winning it all, and I think that felt about right at the time.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 23, 2022 17:25:44 GMT -5
We should all be eternally grateful that Cashman chose Stanton(and Clint Frazier) over Bryce Harper when he was a free agent. That decision set the Yankees back several years. The Harper-Judge combo would have been unstoppable. To a lesser extent, Cashman blew it not trying to sign Machado when he had a chance at him, as well. Both of those guys wanted to go to NYY. I guess Harper would've at least made up for Judge's post-season no-shows. As much as I'm a believer in players (and anyone in a free-market economy, for that matter) having the right to seek their fortune, a handful of players come off as super mercenaries to me. I don't hate them but I can't root for them, with the obvious exception of whenever they play the MFY. Harper, Scherzer and Correa come to mind. Given the offers he turned down and the comments he made during and after the process, I'd put Mookie in that category too. It's not hatred for me. It's more like the attitude Tony Sorprano had toward his mother: "She's dead to me." I just don't care what happens to those guys in their career.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 23, 2022 17:25:53 GMT -5
Congrats to the Phillies. The #6 NL seed goes to the World Series. They finished light years behind the Braves and Mets. So far they are capitalizing on their chance. Their window to win is nowhere near as long as Atlanta or the Mets.
I'm hoping for a 1980 NLCS rematch when the Phillies squeaked past Houston when the Astros were a NL team.
That was my first postseason I ever watched and that series was a classic. Hope Houston finishes off the Yankees and I hope we get an exciting Astros/Phillies World Series.
Congrats to Dave Dombrowski, his 4th different team he has gotten into the World Series.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 23, 2022 17:27:10 GMT -5
Nola pops up the first pitch and Dave Dombrowski is in the World Series with his fourth different club. Not only does that have to be a record for GMs but I think it punches his HOF ticket, as well. He's already won with two different clubs; just getting there with two others has to seal the deal. If the Phillies win it, it might be one of the top storylines as people summarize the season.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 23, 2022 17:28:53 GMT -5
Had the Sox retained Schwarber, I think he would have been my favorite guy on this year’s team. It’s a shame that they let him walk. He’s a winner and they need MORE guys like him. This is my biggest gripe about the offseason - especially given that they went over the luxury tax. His plate approach was so valuable to the team, and he was the rightful heir to JDM. And I still believe that if we wanted him, he was staying. But not to rehash it, I'll just say imagine how different this post-season would have been if we signed Schwarber instead of the Phillies. I can't see the Phillies making the post-season without him, let alone the World Series. DD spent wisely there. I badly want the Red Sox to get back to being a team that sees pitches and values OBP. Schwarber not only added to the lineup with his own presence, he seemed to have an influence on others too. If we had Casas at 1B and Schwarber at DH in 2023, we'd be on our way back to having the kind of lineup I want to see.
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Post by greenmonster on Oct 23, 2022 17:29:53 GMT -5
I don't understand the sac bunt move there - give up an out to get to your number 9 batter? With 8/9 up I think you have to just hope one of them doesn't get out and maybe squeeze out a walk or get lucky with a hit. 2 chances at getting lucky with men on 1st/2nd vs. 1 chance of getting lucky with men on 2nd/3rd doesn't seem like the right tradeoff. It wasn't intended to be a sac bunt. It was intended to be a surprise drag bunt for a hit. Didn't work. Didn't work but not the craziest idea....Fast runner, LH pitcher falls off towards third, wet grass
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Post by lostinnewjersey on Oct 23, 2022 17:29:57 GMT -5
Will this be remembered as the dumbest sacrifice bunt in history? The only thing dumber would be to do it with two outs.
Edit: Even if it was intended to be a hit, still dumb. You need to score a run, and you won't do that on a bunt unless there's an error.
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Post by greenmonster on Oct 23, 2022 17:31:21 GMT -5
Kudos to Harper ...just recieved the MVP award and his acceptance speach he went thru the lineup to acknowledge his teammates.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 23, 2022 17:31:56 GMT -5
Had the Sox retained Schwarber, I think he would have been my favorite guy on this year’s team. It’s a shame that they let him walk. He’s a winner and they need MORE guys like him. This is my biggest gripe about the offseason - especially given that they went over the luxury tax. His plate approach was so valuable to the team, and he was the rightful heir to JDM. And I still believe that if we wanted him, he was staying. But not to rehash it, I'll just say imagine how different this post-season would have been if we signed Schwarber instead of the Phillies. I can't see the Phillies making the post-season without him, let alone the World Series. DD spent wisely there. I loved Schwarber and wanted him back when the predictions were that he'd get 4/64 or 4/68. But at 4/80 (for a guy who hit .218 with a .323 OBP and cannot play defense, remember) I don't think there's much of an argument that they didn't get Story on a better deal. If only he had stayed healthy...
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 23, 2022 17:34:02 GMT -5
Grisham's bunt was a good idea IMO. Grisham is a lousy hitter and he's facing a pretty good lefty starter coming in as a reliever. I would guess his expected line there is like .170/.250/.280. I like his odds better of getting on base with a bunt. Infact, bad hitters facing good relievers should probably be bunting a lot.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 23, 2022 17:50:20 GMT -5
What's better than the Yankees being down 3 games to 0 (other than them being swept away)? Their fans get bombarded with....the graphic...the one that shows that only 1 team trailing 3 games to 0 in a series has come all the way back to win. I'm sure that'll make them feel better. Lol It's the gift that keeps on giving. The Curse of Christian Vazquez. Vazquez will probably be back in a Red Sox uniform next year.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 23, 2022 17:51:29 GMT -5
Except that the Phillies were getting better as a team and the red Sox were falling apart. I mean it was pretty obvious to anybody watching the team. Are you really surprised they were the weakest of 5 AL East teams and wound up nowhere near the wild card. To make the playoffs, the Phillies had to top the Brewers. I'm not married to those odds you constantly quote from fangraphs. The Phillies and Guardians were improving as teams as the year wore on. The Red Sox had one really good stretch that didnt include any AL East competition. Any surprise that once the Sox got a steady diet of AL East teams they withered and died? If it was I'm not sure what you were watching. At the very least the Sox should have gotten under the luxury tax limit as it is foolish to wind up just above the limit for a team that clearly wasn't worth it. The past always looks inevitable in retrospect. But from May 10th to June 26th the Red Sox were pretty much the best team in baseball. I'm not sure why you treat their record against the AL East as some sort of kabbalic signifier but they went 14-4 against playoff teams during that stretch (HOU, SEA, CLE, and STL) so it's not like they were just beating up on bad teams. Then they went 10-18 the rest of the way to the trade deadline, largely due to what you'll recall was a ghastly string of injuries. So that meant they couldn't possibly get healthy and return to their May-June form? What did it mean, then, when the Yankees went 10-18 in August? Or when the Bluy Jays went 10-18 from June 16th to July 14th? Or when the Guardians went 10-17 from June 18th to July 13th? Or when the Padres went 9-17 from June 17th to July 14th? Or when the Rays finished the season 8-20? Or when the Phillies finished the season 7-13? I'm not married to fangraphs odds either, but they're a better rubric than saying the Red Sox' slump when their entire rotation was hurt revealed the soul of the team, whereas the hot streak that preceded it can just be asterisked away. The Red Sox and Guardians had almost identical odds as of the trade deadline, for both making the playoffs and winning it all, and I think that felt about right at the time.
But I'm not Monday morning QBing. It was apparent to me in real time. And it was hardly only me. And their record in the division absolutely mattered because that's the majority of what was left on the schedule. I won't belabor well tread ground here. This is about the Phillies. I'm happy for Dombrowski and Schwarber but it's weird that a 3rd place team light years behind the Braves and Mets move on, the 6th best team in the league during g the season. Something feels kind of cheap about that. Too many teams make it and it's too watered down.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 23, 2022 17:52:09 GMT -5
The Curse of Christian Vazquez. Vazquez will probably be back in a Red Sox uniform next year. I doubt it. I don't get the sense that Bloom wants him back.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 23, 2022 17:53:33 GMT -5
This is my biggest gripe about the offseason - especially given that they went over the luxury tax. His plate approach was so valuable to the team, and he was the rightful heir to JDM. And I still believe that if we wanted him, he was staying. But not to rehash it, I'll just say imagine how different this post-season would have been if we signed Schwarber instead of the Phillies. I can't see the Phillies making the post-season without him, let alone the World Series. DD spent wisely there. I loved Schwarber and wanted him back when the predictions were that he'd get 4/64 or 4/68. But at 4/80 (for a guy who hit .218 with a .323 OBP and cannot play defense, remember) I don't think there's much of an argument that they didn't get Story on a better deal. If only he had stayed healthy... We'll see if that's the case during the latter half of his contract, when Schwarber's has already expired.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 23, 2022 18:25:31 GMT -5
This is my biggest gripe about the offseason - especially given that they went over the luxury tax. His plate approach was so valuable to the team, and he was the rightful heir to JDM. And I still believe that if we wanted him, he was staying. But not to rehash it, I'll just say imagine how different this post-season would have been if we signed Schwarber instead of the Phillies. I can't see the Phillies making the post-season without him, let alone the World Series. DD spent wisely there. I loved Schwarber and wanted him back when the predictions were that he'd get 4/64 or 4/68. But at 4/80 (for a guy who hit .218 with a .323 OBP and cannot play defense, remember) I don't think there's much of an argument that they didn't get Story on a better deal. If only he had stayed healthy... Agreed in part, but they could have just given the JDM contract to Schwarber instead with a plan on DHing him most of the time. Don’t forget Schwarber led the NL in homers this year. The Sox desperately needed a power bat.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 23, 2022 18:35:24 GMT -5
I loved Schwarber and wanted him back when the predictions were that he'd get 4/64 or 4/68. But at 4/80 (for a guy who hit .218 with a .323 OBP and cannot play defense, remember) I don't think there's much of an argument that they didn't get Story on a better deal. If only he had stayed healthy... Agreed in part, but they could have just given the JDM contract to Schwarber instead with a plan on DHing him most of the time. Don’t forget Schwarber led the NL in homers this year. The Sox desperately needed a power bat. The power failed them, but that was more a matter of underperformance than roster construction. IMO, what they needed was an OBP bat. Funnily enough, that's why I wanted them to bring Schwarber back - but he only had a .323 OBP this year, lower than Verdugo's and about the same as Arroyo's. He draws walks but you can only get on base so many times when you hit .210.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 23, 2022 18:58:21 GMT -5
The Dombro rules:
1). Win now 2). Pay later
LOL. Some of the vitriol directed to him on this site was over the top, for the type of success he had here. I am guilty, and honestly not very proud, of having a bit of schadenfreude to those that railed against his mgt. style. ha.
I always liked Harper. He was so good, so young, and he mashes. It is fun to watch great hitters.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 23, 2022 18:59:03 GMT -5
They are shooting for 830 start time apparently
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 23, 2022 19:02:20 GMT -5
This is my biggest gripe about the offseason - especially given that they went over the luxury tax. His plate approach was so valuable to the team, and he was the rightful heir to JDM. And I still believe that if we wanted him, he was staying. But not to rehash it, I'll just say imagine how different this post-season would have been if we signed Schwarber instead of the Phillies. I can't see the Phillies making the post-season without him, let alone the World Series. DD spent wisely there. I loved Schwarber and wanted him back when the predictions were that he'd get 4/64 or 4/68. But at 4/80 (for a guy who hit .218 with a .323 OBP and cannot play defense, remember) I don't think there's much of an argument that they didn't get Story on a better deal. If only he had stayed healthy... I don't get where 3 million a year would be a division line for this player. Respect that you have to make hard decisions and resource scarcity factors in, but for I don't think 3 million is enough to say it is too expensive. Bloom paid, what 6-10 million, for a guy who didnt even pitch this year. That isn't entirely his fault, but the point is that for a hitter like Schwarber, 3 milion/yr is splitting hairs, IMO.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 23, 2022 19:13:57 GMT -5
I loved Schwarber and wanted him back when the predictions were that he'd get 4/64 or 4/68. But at 4/80 (for a guy who hit .218 with a .323 OBP and cannot play defense, remember) I don't think there's much of an argument that they didn't get Story on a better deal. If only he had stayed healthy... I don't get where 3 million a year would be a division line for this player. Respect that you have to make hard decisions and resource scarcity factors in, but for I don't think 3 million is enough to say it is too expensive. Bloom paid, what 6-10 million, for a guy who didnt even pitch this year. That isn't entirely his fault, but the point is that for a hitter like Schwarber, 3 milion/yr is splitting hairs, IMO. I dunno, you have to draw the line somewhere. If you'd pay him $20 million, then why not $23 million? If you pay him $23 million, then why not $26 million? Etc.
As it turned out he was worth $21 million this year according to fangraphs, slightly over his salary, or slightly under his salary if you prefer bref. So basically he's not giving any surplus at the beginning of the contract which isn't a great sign of how it'll go. Though it is short enough that the outlook isn't that bad.
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Post by greenmonster on Oct 23, 2022 19:20:11 GMT -5
If they signed Schwarber they would never have been able to get under the 2022 LTT......uhmm, never mind.
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Post by taiwansox on Oct 23, 2022 19:34:06 GMT -5
Wow strike 3 to Altuve, BS…
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 23, 2022 19:43:49 GMT -5
This is my biggest gripe about the offseason - especially given that they went over the luxury tax. His plate approach was so valuable to the team, and he was the rightful heir to JDM. And I still believe that if we wanted him, he was staying. But not to rehash it, I'll just say imagine how different this post-season would have been if we signed Schwarber instead of the Phillies. I can't see the Phillies making the post-season without him, let alone the World Series. DD spent wisely there. I loved Schwarber and wanted him back when the predictions were that he'd get 4/64 or 4/68. But at 4/80 (for a guy who hit .218 with a .323 OBP and cannot play defense, remember) I don't think there's much of an argument that they didn't get Story on a better deal. If only he had stayed healthy... Schwarber's BABIP was only .240, so that had an effect on his OBP. Not that he's been a high BABIP guy in his career. He's at .268 over eight seasons. His 2022 K and BB numbers were in line with his career norms. His FB% was a bit higher than his career number, 33.8 to 29.1.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 23, 2022 19:45:25 GMT -5
Bader is making a strong bid to replace Gardner as the MFY guy I'd most like to punch.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 23, 2022 19:52:03 GMT -5
Bader is making a strong bid to replace Gardner as the MFY guy I'd most like punch. that is saying something bro, that is awful high bar to overcome.
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