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2022-2023 National Rankings (offseason)
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Post by LoneStarSox on Feb 25, 2023 17:37:21 GMT -5
Law did a Q&A with the beat writers on The Athletic about some of his prospect rankings. I think it adds some good context to his thoughts on individual players and his evaluation of the system as a whole to a lesser degree, but I also didn't think any of his initial thoughts were that egregious so maybe others will still find these answer inflammatory: theathletic.com/4238586/2023/02/24/red-sox-prospects-marcelo-mayer/Sidebar: The Athletic comments sections have gotten worse than Twitter in most places. It used to be pretty high level commenting but now pretty much every article I read across the website is just a whole heap of garbage in the comments, and the Sox articles are no exception. I think it's unfortunately led to a lot less staff participation in the comments, which was one of the things I used to enjoy most about the website. this isn’t relevant to the thread but couldn’t agree more about the athletics comment section. How far have we fallen as a species.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 25, 2023 18:07:13 GMT -5
Law did a Q&A with the beat writers on The Athletic about some of his prospect rankings. I think it adds some good context to his thoughts on individual players and his evaluation of the system as a whole to a lesser degree, but I also didn't think any of his initial thoughts were that egregious so maybe others will still find these answer inflammatory: theathletic.com/4238586/2023/02/24/red-sox-prospects-marcelo-mayer/Sidebar: The Athletic comments sections have gotten worse than Twitter in most places. It used to be pretty high level commenting but now pretty much every article I read across the website is just a whole heap of garbage in the comments, and the Sox articles are no exception. I think it's unfortunately led to a lot less staff participation in the comments, which was one of the things I used to enjoy most about the website. this isn’t relevant to the thread but couldn’t agree more about the athletics comment section. How far have we fallen as a species. I'm old enough to remember when the Internet was going to usher in a new age of education and enlightenment. Turns out we just didn't realize that all the bullies and morons that we had forgotten about from high school (times the number of high schools out there...) grow physically into adults but remain bullies and morons that are just clever enough to also learn how to use the Internet...
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Post by Guidas on Feb 26, 2023 10:59:09 GMT -5
this isn’t relevant to the thread but couldn’t agree more about the athletics comment section. How far have we fallen as a species. I'm old enough to remember when the Internet was going to usher in a new age of education and enlightenment. Turns out we just didn't realize that all the bullies and morons that we had forgotten about from high school (times the number of high schools out there...) grow physically into adults but remain bullies and morons that are just clever enough to also learn how to use the Internet... I remember reading a book by William Manchester called The Glory and the Dream that was a sort of blow-by-blow account of the U.S. from the 1930s-1970s and nearly that exact quote was in there in the 1950s about television. Not the place for this discussion, but all we have to do is look back to graffiti found in ancient Rome, Greece, China, Egypt, Assyria or Sumeria, or look at any human society going back at least 10,000 years to find that kindness, cooperation, brutality, gossip, bullying and poop and sex jokes seem to be encoded into our DNA.
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Post by kman22 on Feb 26, 2023 12:51:21 GMT -5
If you want to hear Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin discuss Bleis and why they had him so high, the discussion starts at about 31:25 of the episode of Fangraphs Audio that was released today. Is there a link?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 26, 2023 13:10:03 GMT -5
To Guidas. Historically true. But some cultures were/are marked with kindness, cooperation, even love, as opposed to those dominated by bullying and brutality. Good vs evil has been a constant theme of the evolution of virtually every culture. Often autocrats vs the people.
The internet, I agree, has exacerbated the bullying side all the way from academia to baseball. IMO the bullying has moved from the toxic arena of mean spirited talking heads and their frat boy producers to traditionally balanced baseball boards, even here. Discouraging.
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cdj
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Posts: 15,659
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Post by cdj on Feb 26, 2023 13:32:23 GMT -5
If you want to hear Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin discuss Bleis and why they had him so high, the discussion starts at about 31:25 of the episode of Fangraphs Audio that was released today. Is there a link? blogs.fangraphs.com/category/podcast/
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Post by Guidas on Feb 27, 2023 13:45:33 GMT -5
Longenhagen appears on Keith Law's latest podcast to discuss their respective top 100 lists and where they differ. Starting at around 12:30, they discuss Bleis and spend a good 1/3 of the podcast discussing him. Longenhagen does his rankings just like Law - bases it on guys he's seen live, video and talking to scouts. He's not seen Bleis live but some takeaways: - He based a lot of his evaluation on his swing in videos, which he said would put him in top 10 draft status if he was 18 and in showcases. Also a lot of it is based on scouts' reports. - Says even though he has a high K rate, he doesn't have a high chase rate, so that was important to the evaluation. - Says for Bleis not to slip this year he'll need to get his BB rate to 8-10%, his K rate down out of the 30% range and to have about a wRC+ of around 140 split between Salem and Greenville this year. Law said in contrast, the K rate and the low BB rate worried him somewhat, but the swing and scout hype put him in his own top 100. One other tidbit: Longenhagen mentions he's not sure Mayer will be able to stay at SS. Depends on injuries going forward. Law thinks Mayer is a SS with a lot more near-term projection than Bleis and hence, why he had Mayer much higher than Bleis.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 27, 2023 13:48:36 GMT -5
I haven't heard anything remotely like Longenhagen's take on Mayer having to move off of SS from anyone else. Is he on an island with that?
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Post by jmei on Feb 27, 2023 14:01:44 GMT -5
I haven't heard anything remotely like Longenhagen's take on Mayer having to move off of SS from anyone else. Is he on an island with that? There were some isolated pre-draft questions about whether he might outgrow SS at some point. See, e.g, here. But the overwhelming consensus was that he was fluid/smooth enough not just to stick at shortshop but to potentially be a plus defender there. ADD: Longenhagen has at least been relatively consistent about Mayer's defense potentially being an issue. In February 2022, he said: "Evaluators looking to nitpick Mayer’s game point out fringy home-to-first times and an awkward running gait. A knee-jerk reaction to those nits might lead you to question his ability to stay at shortstop, but he quickly sets aside those concerns once he takes the field, as his instincts, first-step quickness and strong arm make up for the lack of twitch." And, as a reminder, here's what he said a few weeks ago: "As far as defensive projection is concerned, a boxy frame, medium straight line speed, and an awkward running gait push and pull against Mayer’s defensive instincts, first-step quickness, and strong arm. He’s already noticeably thicker now than he was in high school, though that’s probably part of where the power is coming from. He’s likely to move off shortstop eventually, but it probably won’t be for a while; the longer he stays there, the more margin for error the hit tool component, which we’re a tad apprehensive about, will have as he begins his big league career."
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Post by Guidas on Feb 27, 2023 14:02:30 GMT -5
I haven't heard anything remotely like Longenhagen's take on Mayer having to move off of SS from anyone else. Is he on an island with that? It was just a line, and might've been a throwaway. But they were talking about guys with great projection who get injured early in their career and just don't make it. Perhaps he was just looking at last year's injuries and time lost and projecting? Who knows. The Bleis discussion was much, much more thorough and interesting.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 27, 2023 14:05:09 GMT -5
I haven't heard anything remotely like Longenhagen's take on Mayer having to move off of SS from anyone else. Is he on an island with that? There were some isolated pre-draft questions about whether he might outgrow SS at some point. See, e.g, here. But the overwhelming consensus was that he was fluid/smooth enough not just to stick at shortshop but to potentially be a plus defender there. Yes, I forgot that. I always wonder about those types of projections being hold-overs from the last century. If a guy can be 6-4 to 6-6 and fluid and smooth on the basketball court or football field, then other 6-4 guys can "stay" at shortstop."
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 27, 2023 14:19:35 GMT -5
Longenhagen appears on Keith Law's latest podcast to discuss their respective top 100 lists and where they differ. Starting at around 12:30, they discuss Bleis and spend a good 1/3 of the podcast discussing him. Longenhagen does his rankings just like Law - bases it on guys he's seen live, video and talking to scouts. He's not seen Bleis live but some takeaways: - He based a lot of his evaluation on his swing in videos, which he said would put him in top 10 draft status if he was 18 and in showcases. Also a lot of it is based on scouts' reports. - Says even though he has a high K rate, he doesn't have a high chase rate, so that was important to the evaluation.- Says for Bleis not to slip this year he'll need to get his BB rate to 8-10%, his K rate down out of the 30% range and to have about a wRC+ of around 140 split between Salem and Greenville this year. Law said in contrast, the K rate and the low BB rate worried him somewhat, but the swing and scout hype put him in his own top 100. One other tidbit: Longenhagen mentions he's not sure Mayer will be able to stay at SS. Depends on injuries going forward. Law thinks Mayer is a SS with a lot more near-term projection than Bleis and hence, why he had Mayer much higher than Bleis. I find this interesting, and have seen this brought up a few times with Bleis and Rafaela lately (for opposite reasons). These seem to be the primary reasons a player has a high strikeout rate: - Lacks bat-speed or has a swing delay (long leg kick/tap/etc) which prevents them from catching-up to fastballs - Can't identify/differentiate breaking pitches in a timely manner (often tied to bat speed as well; with some players having to rush to catch-up to fastballs) - Doesn't possess coordination to consistently make contact (often leads to weak contact rather than strikeouts) - Consistently chases pitch(es) out of the zone which is taken advantage of by pitchers (often leads to weak contact as well) In my mind, and from what I've seen in my life watching baseball as a fan, I think the last one is the easiest to fix as it has more to do with plate discipline while the other factors rely more on physical ability or mental processing speed. This is one reason I'm higher on Rafaela than Bleis. Does anyone have an opposing view, or any historical data, showing why the opposite may be true? (apologies if it's spoken of in the podcast, I don't subscribe to the Athletic)
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Post by Guidas on Feb 27, 2023 16:55:11 GMT -5
Longenhagen appears on Keith Law's latest podcast to discuss their respective top 100 lists and where they differ. Starting at around 12:30, they discuss Bleis and spend a good 1/3 of the podcast discussing him. Longenhagen does his rankings just like Law - bases it on guys he's seen live, video and talking to scouts. He's not seen Bleis live but some takeaways: - He based a lot of his evaluation on his swing in videos, which he said would put him in top 10 draft status if he was 18 and in showcases. Also a lot of it is based on scouts' reports. - Says even though he has a high K rate, he doesn't have a high chase rate, so that was important to the evaluation.- Says for Bleis not to slip this year he'll need to get his BB rate to 8-10%, his K rate down out of the 30% range and to have about a wRC+ of around 140 split between Salem and Greenville this year. Law said in contrast, the K rate and the low BB rate worried him somewhat, but the swing and scout hype put him in his own top 100. One other tidbit: Longenhagen mentions he's not sure Mayer will be able to stay at SS. Depends on injuries going forward. Law thinks Mayer is a SS with a lot more near-term projection than Bleis and hence, why he had Mayer much higher than Bleis. I find this interesting, and have seen this brought up a few times with Bleis and Rafaela lately (for opposite reasons). These seem to be the primary reasons a player has a high strikeout rate: - Lacks bat-speed or has a swing delay (long leg kick/tap/etc) which prevents them from catching-up to fastballs - Can't identify/differentiate breaking pitches in a timely manner (often tied to bat speed as well; with some players having to rush to catch-up to fastballs) - Doesn't possess coordination to consistently make contact (often leads to weak contact rather than strikeouts) - Consistently chases pitch(es) out of the zone which is taken advantage of by pitchers (often leads to weak contact as well) In my mind, and from what I've seen in my life watching baseball as a fan, I think the last one is the easiest to fix as it has more to do with plate discipline while the other factors rely more on physical ability or mental processing speed. This is one reason I'm higher on Rafaela than Bleis. Does anyone have an opposing view, or any historical data, showing why the opposite may be true? (apologies if it's spoken of in the podcast, I don't subscribe to the Athletic) I can't say for sure, but I don't think you have to be an Athletic subscriber to access the podcast. They talking about the draft at the end, too, which may be of some interest.
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Post by soxin8 on Feb 27, 2023 19:08:03 GMT -5
If you don't have an Athletic subscription, one other mention by Law was he only thought Thad Ward was a number 6 starter, so in his opinion not a tremendous loss. Still disappointing to lose him and I know many here will be watching his work in Washington and rooting for him.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 27, 2023 21:02:55 GMT -5
Law's podcast is not behind a paywall, FWIW.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
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Post by cdj on Feb 27, 2023 21:15:28 GMT -5
Longenhagen appears on Keith Law's latest podcast to discuss their respective top 100 lists and where they differ. Starting at around 12:30, they discuss Bleis and spend a good 1/3 of the podcast discussing him. Longenhagen does his rankings just like Law - bases it on guys he's seen live, video and talking to scouts. He's not seen Bleis live but some takeaways: - He based a lot of his evaluation on his swing in videos, which he said would put him in top 10 draft status if he was 18 and in showcases. Also a lot of it is based on scouts' reports. - Says even though he has a high K rate, he doesn't have a high chase rate, so that was important to the evaluation.- Says for Bleis not to slip this year he'll need to get his BB rate to 8-10%, his K rate down out of the 30% range and to have about a wRC+ of around 140 split between Salem and Greenville this year. Law said in contrast, the K rate and the low BB rate worried him somewhat, but the swing and scout hype put him in his own top 100. One other tidbit: Longenhagen mentions he's not sure Mayer will be able to stay at SS. Depends on injuries going forward. Law thinks Mayer is a SS with a lot more near-term projection than Bleis and hence, why he had Mayer much higher than Bleis. I find this interesting, and have seen this brought up a few times with Bleis and Rafaela lately (for opposite reasons). These seem to be the primary reasons a player has a high strikeout rate: - Lacks bat-speed or has a swing delay (long leg kick/tap/etc) which prevents them from catching-up to fastballs - Can't identify/differentiate breaking pitches in a timely manner (often tied to bat speed as well; with some players having to rush to catch-up to fastballs) - Doesn't possess coordination to consistently make contact (often leads to weak contact rather than strikeouts) - Consistently chases pitch(es) out of the zone which is taken advantage of by pitchers (often leads to weak contact as well) In my mind, and from what I've seen in my life watching baseball as a fan, I think the last one is the easiest to fix as it has more to do with plate discipline while the other factors rely more on physical ability or mental processing speed. This is one reason I'm higher on Rafaela than Bleis. Does anyone have an opposing view, or any historical data, showing why the opposite may be true? (apologies if it's spoken of in the podcast, I don't subscribe to the Athletic) The exit velo’s point away from a slow bat
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 28, 2023 10:25:27 GMT -5
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Feb 28, 2023 10:33:58 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 28, 2023 10:37:42 GMT -5
1. Mayer 2. Casas 3. Rafaela 4. Bleis 5. Romero 6. Yorke 7. Mata 8. Walter 9. Paulino 10. Anthony 11. Jordan 12. Gonzalez 13. Perales 14. Lugo 15. Murphy 16. Hickey 17. Bonaci 18. Valdez 19. Coffey 20. Kavadas 21. Meidroth 22. Brannon 23. Abreu 24. Rodriguez-Cruz 25. Rogers 26. Kelly 27. Webb 28. Ravelo 29. Hamilton 30. Encarnacion
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 28, 2023 10:49:38 GMT -5
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 28, 2023 11:16:35 GMT -5
You can listen on Spotify or Apple Podcasts or Stitcher.
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Feb 28, 2023 11:43:31 GMT -5
Looking back at MLB (and SP) past rankings and it is very nice having a current list not made up of relievers in the teen spots.
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Post by bosox904 on Feb 28, 2023 11:45:52 GMT -5
I use castbox and his and all the athletics shows are on there for free. I listen to Rates and Barrels and The Athletic Baseball Show.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 28, 2023 11:49:27 GMT -5
I use castbox and his and all the athletics shows are on there for free. I listen to Rates and Barrels and The Athletic Baseball Show. You can listen on Spotify or Apple Podcasts or Stitcher. Thanks guys (needless to say, I don't listed to podcasts often)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 28, 2023 11:59:14 GMT -5
I use castbox and his and all the athletics shows are on there for free. I listen to Rates and Barrels and The Athletic Baseball Show. You can listen on Spotify or Apple Podcasts or Stitcher. Thanks guys Yeah I think the general answer is pick your podcatcher app.
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