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2022-2023 National Rankings (offseason)
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 22, 2023 21:57:42 GMT -5
In fairness, a lot of people did want exactly Pete Crow-Armstrong when the Sox were on the clock. I thought he was overrated at the time. For now it looks like I was wr- wr- wr-. 80-grade name, tho.
Guidas was banging the drum loudest for him and if PCA winds up outproducing the entire BOS draft class, as Guidas is on the record predicting, I don't see how anyone would be able to defend not picking him.
I guess we'll have to wait and see...
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Post by 1toolplayer on Feb 22, 2023 23:02:58 GMT -5
And every MLB team except the Angels is stupid because they didn’t take Mike Trout, are we really doing this with the draft now? BOS drafted three spots after Trout was taken, so they never had a shot at him. Theo took the next CF on their board, Rey Fuentes, so it's possible that if Trout had still been there...
The absolute entire reason for taking Yorke, was to get a play underslot, since they had their 2nd rounder taken away and needed to get creative in a 5-round draft. PCA wasn't going under slot by almost $1m. It's funny because a year ago PCA was coming off being traded by the Mets and a serious shoulder injury, while Yorke was the top 40 prospect on the fast track. Yorke then has a rough patch, and things are flipped. Not much of a fan of the they drafted this guy over that guy in any sport, bc it lacks too much context, but even more so in MLB.
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Post by dewey1972 on Feb 22, 2023 23:23:39 GMT -5
A note on the Mayer hit tool ranking. In the chat Longenhagen says that Mayer's swing is similar to Torkelson and Kelenic's, and given how their swings have been exploited at the major league level, that's impacted his feelings about Mayer
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
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Post by cdj on Feb 23, 2023 0:49:06 GMT -5
In fairness, a lot of people did want exactly Pete Crow-Armstrong when the Sox were on the clock. I thought he was overrated at the time. For now it looks like I was wr- wr- wr-. 80-grade name, tho.
Guidas was banging the drum loudest for him and if PCA winds up outproducing the entire BOS draft class, as Guidas is on the record predicting, I don't see how anyone would be able to defend not picking him.
I guess we'll have to wait and see...
Here’s how you can defend it- they got a good prospect where they picked and you can play this game with every team in every draft. Like I said in the song thread- the discourse this off-season has produced is just pure, 100% uncut silliness. People just finding every possible little thing to complain about.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 23, 2023 3:49:36 GMT -5
What does all this crap have to do with National Rankings ?
Do we need to mess up every thread with the same BS ?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 23, 2023 4:03:59 GMT -5
Maybe a junk thread where moderators can move the barely related posts from every thread.
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Post by iakovos11 on Feb 23, 2023 18:14:27 GMT -5
What does all this crap have to do with National Rankings ? Do we need to mess up every thread with the same BS ? It’s related because the rankings just came out with PCA rated higher than Yorke. That said, it’s a tangent that need to end now. Let’s move on people.
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Post by seamus on Feb 23, 2023 21:56:28 GMT -5
On the subject of FG rankings, the Sox ended 2022 as their 9th-ranked system based on total value (largely based on sheer quantity of prospects meriting a grade). With 3 guys in the top 30, 4 in the top 5, and another at 102, they have some top-end guys to go with that quantity. Be interesting to see where FG places the system when it updates.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 23, 2023 22:21:15 GMT -5
What does all this crap have to do with National Rankings ? Do we need to mess up every thread with the same BS ? It’s related because the rankings just came out with PCA rated higher than Yorke. That said, it’s a tangent that need to end now. Let’s move on people. That's total BS. It's just revisiting the same thing over and over. It's revisionist, it's coulda, woulda, shoulda. This thread should be about what is, not what could or should or would be. All that crap belongs in the Bloom thread. It's Meadows/Ball deja vu all over again.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 24, 2023 8:06:06 GMT -5
Please move on. Thanks.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 24, 2023 10:02:51 GMT -5
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 24, 2023 10:07:29 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 24, 2023 10:17:36 GMT -5
One sort-of-positive here, it has Kavadas as the 5th best first base prospect. Some other notes: - That Yoshida isn't listed given we already know he has a high ZiPS projection makes me think he was excluded. - ZiPS basically ranks Casas and Rafaela right where the scouts do - Down on Mayer and WAY down on Bleis compared to scouts, probably because "ZiPS will still have a tendency to like high-floor, low-ceiling players more than scouts do" - Non-Red Sox note: ZiPS has Orelvis Martinez (TOR) ranked 5th overall, and he is completely unranked by the FG scouts
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 24, 2023 10:30:44 GMT -5
I don't think ZiPS is really capable of being high on a player with 100 PA and an amateur pedigree that isn't super elite.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Feb 24, 2023 10:35:40 GMT -5
Orelvis Martinez struck out 28.5% of the time and posted a 96 wRC+ last year. Absolute monster! I know it’s harmless, but I hate that Romero is listed as a 2B here. That’s insanely premature
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 24, 2023 11:40:49 GMT -5
Law did a Q&A with the beat writers on The Athletic about some of his prospect rankings. I think it adds some good context to his thoughts on individual players and his evaluation of the system as a whole to a lesser degree, but I also didn't think any of his initial thoughts were that egregious so maybe others will still find these answer inflammatory: theathletic.com/4238586/2023/02/24/red-sox-prospects-marcelo-mayer/Sidebar: The Athletic comments sections have gotten worse than Twitter in most places. It used to be pretty high level commenting but now pretty much every article I read across the website is just a whole heap of garbage in the comments, and the Sox articles are no exception. I think it's unfortunately led to a lot less staff participation in the comments, which was one of the things I used to enjoy most about the website.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 24, 2023 11:59:22 GMT -5
Law did a Q&A with the beat writers on The Athletic about some of his prospect rankings. I think it adds some good context to his thoughts on individual players and his evaluation of the system as a whole to a lesser degree, but I also didn't think any of his initial thoughts were that egregious so maybe others will still find these answer inflammatory: theathletic.com/4238586/2023/02/24/red-sox-prospects-marcelo-mayer/Sidebar: The Athletic comments sections have gotten worse than Twitter in most places. It used to be pretty high level commenting but now pretty much every article I read across the website is just a whole heap of garbage in the comments, and the Sox articles are no exception. I think it's unfortunately led to a lot less staff participation in the comments, which was one of the things I used to enjoy most about the website. Generally pretty reasonable, though I was struck by his giving Crawford literally no chance to stick as a starter.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
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Post by nomar on Feb 24, 2023 11:59:53 GMT -5
Law did a Q&A with the beat writers on The Athletic about some of his prospect rankings. I think it adds some good context to his thoughts on individual players and his evaluation of the system as a whole to a lesser degree, but I also didn't think any of his initial thoughts were that egregious so maybe others will still find these answer inflammatory: theathletic.com/4238586/2023/02/24/red-sox-prospects-marcelo-mayer/Sidebar: The Athletic comments sections have gotten worse than Twitter in most places. It used to be pretty high level commenting but now pretty much every article I read across the website is just a whole heap of garbage in the comments, and the Sox articles are no exception. I think it's unfortunately led to a lot less staff participation in the comments, which was one of the things I used to enjoy most about the website. Nice little nod to Wilkelman there too. I was also pretty shocked he didn’t get taken in the Rule 5
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Post by dewey1972 on Feb 24, 2023 22:53:09 GMT -5
If you want to hear Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin discuss Bleis and why they had him so high, the discussion starts at about 31:25 of the episode of Fangraphs Audio that was released today.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 24, 2023 22:56:55 GMT -5
One sort-of-positive here, it has Kavadas as the 5th best first base prospect. Some other notes: - That Yoshida isn't listed given we already know he has a high ZiPS projection makes me think he was excluded. - ZiPS basically ranks Casas and Rafaela right where the scouts do - Down on Mayer and WAY down on Bleis compared to scouts, probably because "ZiPS will still have a tendency to like high-floor, low-ceiling players more than scouts do" - Non-Red Sox note: ZiPS has Orelvis Martinez (TOR) ranked 5th overall, and he is completely unranked by the FG scouts Yoshida is listed, as the #12 prospect and 2nd ranked outfielder. Zips top 100 aren't the same as prospect rankings. That's not their intent.
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Post by seamus on Feb 24, 2023 23:03:56 GMT -5
One sort-of-positive here, it has Kavadas as the 5th best first base prospect. Some other notes: - That Yoshida isn't listed given we already know he has a high ZiPS projection makes me think he was excluded. - ZiPS basically ranks Casas and Rafaela right where the scouts do - Down on Mayer and WAY down on Bleis compared to scouts, probably because "ZiPS will still have a tendency to like high-floor, low-ceiling players more than scouts do" - Non-Red Sox note: ZiPS has Orelvis Martinez (TOR) ranked 5th overall, and he is completely unranked by the FG scouts Yoshida is listed, as the #12 prospect and 2nd ranked outfielder. Zips top 100 aren't the same as prospect rankings. That's not their intent. Yoshida wasn't listed in the original article - Dan omitted him from the first run inadvertently and then edited the article to add him. Just another way to emphasize that this is a fundamentally different kind of list than the scouting rankings.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 24, 2023 23:19:13 GMT -5
Law did a Q&A with the beat writers on The Athletic about some of his prospect rankings. I think it adds some good context to his thoughts on individual players and his evaluation of the system as a whole to a lesser degree, but I also didn't think any of his initial thoughts were that egregious so maybe others will still find these answer inflammatory: theathletic.com/4238586/2023/02/24/red-sox-prospects-marcelo-mayer/Sidebar: The Athletic comments sections have gotten worse than Twitter in most places. It used to be pretty high level commenting but now pretty much every article I read across the website is just a whole heap of garbage in the comments, and the Sox articles are no exception. I think it's unfortunately led to a lot less staff participation in the comments, which was one of the things I used to enjoy most about the website. I am not a Law fan but for reasons other than baseball. That said, I thought his answers were quite good with more detail than previously released. Examples, I'm one of the people guilty of blaming Yorke's year solely on injuries and Rafelas need to work on his swing plane which was mentioned before. My thought on the previous overall ranking is that if the Sox held Bello out from the last game, it'd be a significantly different ranking.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Feb 25, 2023 0:31:26 GMT -5
If you want to hear Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin discuss Bleis and why they had him so high, the discussion starts at about 31:25 of the episode of Fangraphs Audio that was released today. That discussion was so damn sexy.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 25, 2023 8:53:48 GMT -5
Law did a Q&A with the beat writers on The Athletic about some of his prospect rankings. I think it adds some good context to his thoughts on individual players and his evaluation of the system as a whole to a lesser degree, but I also didn't think any of his initial thoughts were that egregious so maybe others will still find these answer inflammatory: theathletic.com/4238586/2023/02/24/red-sox-prospects-marcelo-mayer/Sidebar: The Athletic comments sections have gotten worse than Twitter in most places. It used to be pretty high level commenting but now pretty much every article I read across the website is just a whole heap of garbage in the comments, and the Sox articles are no exception. I think it's unfortunately led to a lot less staff participation in the comments, which was one of the things I used to enjoy most about the website. I am not a Law fan but for reasons other than baseball. That said, I thought his answers were quite good with more detail than previously released. Examples, I'm one of the people guilty of blaming Yorke's year solely on injuries and Rafelas need to work on his swing plane which was mentioned before. My thought on the previous overall ranking is that if the Sox held Bello out from the last game, it'd be a significantly different ranking. For whatever it's worth (not that this is where you were going given that BA, for example, doesn't use service time), for actual ROY eligibility, they'd have had to send him to Worcester after his last August start to keep him eligible based on service time - remember, he was on the IL for 20 days.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 25, 2023 14:45:49 GMT -5
After the Yoshida addition, the Red Sox look pretty good in the ZiPs rankings blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2023-top-100-prospects/
top 50 - 1st (tied) top 100 - 9th (tied) top 200 - 9th (tied)
Bleis and Mayer are lower, but that's understandable given their age and statistical production due to their short playing careers. Of the top 50 prospects, only 7 of them are below AA and one of them is Yoshida, who is an outlier with significant historical data (another, of course, is Mayer). It's an interesting tool to use in checking on some of the scouting lists, which rely more on tools (where Bleis looks far better).
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