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2022-2023 National Rankings (offseason)
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Post by texs31 on Feb 2, 2023 10:19:11 GMT -5
Don't have the time to go research but it seems as though it's a league-wide thing in the international market. Quick glance at Jesse Sanchez' lists over the last couple of years and the rankings only have 1-3 players in the top 30 or so (I know that doesn't always equate to bonus amounts but . . .)
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Post by Guidas on Feb 2, 2023 10:31:25 GMT -5
I don't know much about the other systems, but just in the AL East, who would we have ranked lower than the Sox? My gut instinct is NYY - which almost seems like a mirror of the Sox with some near MLB-ready guys and a few other A or lower prospects. But the projections for Balt (which tanked in multiple years), TB (I see the Bulls often and they have been cycling up talent annually like tires off an assembly line) and Toronto seem accurate as appear to have better systems than the Sox. Anyone disagree? That's moving the goalposts. We're talking about where they rank relative to the entire league. I'd have the system in the 10-15 range. Mayer/Cases/Bleis/Rafaela is a really good top four, and while none of Crawford/Wink/Mata/Walter/Murphy is a slam dunk long-term starting pitcher, they're all MLB-ready with options and I think one of them sticks as a legit mid-rotation starter and a couple others become legitimate bullpen weapons. Unintentional. I'm posing a legit question with regard to their immediate competition. I have no sense of the systems for most of the other teams outside the AL East except LAD and AZ. And I only know a little more than not about those only because, well, LAD is the model the whole league should be emulating - although, "hiring Tampa guys" apparently does not equate to hiring Andrew Friedman, which I think we all knew - and I have family in AZ who keep me apprised of their farm.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Feb 2, 2023 10:36:38 GMT -5
That's moving the goalposts. We're talking about where they rank relative to the entire league. I'd have the system in the 10-15 range. Mayer/Cases/Bleis/Rafaela is a really good top four, and while none of Crawford/Wink/Mata/Walter/Murphy is a slam dunk long-term starting pitcher, they're all MLB-ready with options and I think one of them sticks as a legit mid-rotation starter and a couple others become legitimate bullpen weapons. Unintentional. I'm posing a legit question with regard to their immediate competition. I have no sense of the systems for most of the other teams outside the AL East except LAD and AZ. And I only know a little more than not about those only because, well, LAD is the model the whole league should be emulating - although, "hiring Tampa guys" apparently does not equate to hiring Andrew Friedman, which I think we all knew - and I have family in AZ who keep me apprised of their farm. I wouldn't say Toronto has a better farm. The top end is worse off than Boston's and it's stacked with pitchers but not much in position players. I'd rather have the latter, like the Sox do.
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 2, 2023 10:41:18 GMT -5
Keith Law ranks Red Sox as 23rd system. 23. Boston Red Sox Their group of position-player prospects is probably in the upper half of farm systems, but their group of pitching prospects is one of the weakest. They might not have a future MLB starter anywhere on their full-season rosters; the best of those candidates all have huge reliever risk, at least. They lost one guy from their top-100 group last year, as Nick Yorke, their shocking first-round pick in 2020, hit just .232/.302/.365 in High A. He’ll turn 21 in April, though, and has time to recover. Pretty ridiculous take from Law IMO, especially since he's so high on Rafaela. It's going to be annoying to hear a chorus "CHAIM BLOOM TRADED MOOKIE FOR THE 23rd BEST FARM SYSTEM" every time we lose a game this year. Mission accomplished then, Sox twitter is a tire fire this morning after these rankings were poste
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Post by jmei on Feb 2, 2023 10:55:45 GMT -5
That's moving the goalposts. We're talking about where they rank relative to the entire league. I'd have the system in the 10-15 range. Mayer/Cases/Bleis/Rafaela is a really good top four, and while none of Crawford/Wink/Mata/Walter/Murphy is a slam dunk long-term starting pitcher, they're all MLB-ready with options and I think one of them sticks as a legit mid-rotation starter and a couple others become legitimate bullpen weapons. Unintentional. I'm posing a legit question with regard to their immediate competition. I have no sense of the systems for most of the other teams outside the AL East except LAD and AZ. And I only know a little more than not about those only because, well, LAD is the model the whole league should be emulating - although, "hiring Tampa guys" apparently does not equate to hiring Andrew Friedman, which I think we all knew - and I have family in AZ who keep me apprised of their farm. I don't think anyone other than the national rankers keep close enough tabs on all those farm systems to have an actually informed opinion, but those national rankers generally have Boston behind Baltimore and Tampa but either in the same tier or a little better than New York and Toronto.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,195
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Post by cdj on Feb 2, 2023 11:14:09 GMT -5
classic Law
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Post by incandenza on Feb 2, 2023 11:27:00 GMT -5
So the top of the system isn't everything, of course, but Law himself put 4 Sox prospects in the top 100, and fairly high in the the top 100 (at 11, 37, 40, and 72), and only one Blue Jay in the top 100 (at 47), yet he ranks the Jays' system 17th and the Red Sox' 23rd. What's more, he praises the depth of the Jays' system based on their "deep reserve of middle infield prospects" and a "couple of outfielders," but none of them were good enough to be in the top 100 - unlike four of the Red Sox' position players, three of whom are up-the-middle guys.
In theory, if the Jays' system is just really loaded with like 45-grade prospects and the Red Sox system drops off precipitously after Bleis, then maybe a higher ranking for the Jays' system would be justified. But Law doesn't actually say that's the case.
Other teams ranked above them, with number of top-100 prospects:
22. Phillies (2, at 13 and 77) 21. Marline (3, at 10, 78, and 97) 20. Mariners (2, at 65 and 75) 19. Twins (2, at 48 and 51) 18. Giants 2, (at 18 and 21) 17. Blue Jays (1, at 47) 16. Royals (1, at 57)
Anyway... None of this actually matters, but it does lead me to a question I've had lately: Law's ranking can only be justified if the Red Sox' have an especially shallow system. But rankings last year, and my general perception, have had it as stronger in depth than in top-end talent. Is that wrong? Or has it changed? They've lost Ward, Politi, Song, German, Groome, and Downs recently, which has chipped away at the depth recently (but also added Abreu, Valdez, and Broadway).
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Post by Guidas on Feb 2, 2023 11:48:19 GMT -5
So the top of the system isn't everything, of course, but Law himself put 4 Sox prospects in the top 100, and fairly high in the the top 100 (at 11, 37, 40, and 72), and only one Blue Jay in the top 100 (at 47), yet he ranks the Jays' system 17th and the Red Sox' 23rd. What's more, he praises the depth of the Jays' system based on their "deep reserve of middle infield prospects" and a "couple of outfielders," but none of them were good enough to be in the top 100 - unlike four of the Red Sox' position players, three of whom are up-the-middle guys.
In theory, if the Jays' system is just really loaded with like 45-grade prospects and the Red Sox system drops off precipitously after Bleis, then maybe a higher ranking for the Jays' system would be justified. But Law doesn't actually say that's the case. Other teams ranked above them, with number of top-100 prospects:
22. Phillies (2, at 13 and 77) 21. Marline (3, at 10, 78, and 97) 20. Mariners (2, at 65 and 75) 19. Twins (2, at 48 and 51) 18. Giants 2, (at 18 and 21) 17. Blue Jays (1, at 47) 16. Royals (1, at 57) Anyway... None of this actually matters, but it does lead me to a question I've had lately: Law's ranking can only be justified if the Red Sox' have an especially shallow system. But rankings last year, and my general perception, have had it as stronger in depth than in top-end talent. Is that wrong? Or has it changed? They've lost Ward, Politi, Song, German, Groome, and Downs recently, which has chipped away at the depth recently (but also added Abreu, Valdez, and Broadway).
Weren't those two sub-top 10 prospects in a system that was rated below the Sox last year, too (I don't know enough about where Broadway was ranked)? I think at the beginning of last year there was still projection on Downs and Groome was sub top 10 but still top 15 for many evaluators. Not sure how Law weighs his rankings. I just know he's had Sox in bottom 1/3 since 2020.
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Post by seamus on Feb 2, 2023 11:50:57 GMT -5
I think it just speaks to the ultimate futility of anyone reasonably comparing literally thousands of players with high degrees of accuracy and precision. Even just keeping track of prospects in one system is a challenge given that you often need eyes on the prospects to get a good read on them, especially in the low minors where stats aren't as reliably informative.
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Post by jmei on Feb 2, 2023 11:51:13 GMT -5
I do think there is some loss of depth over the last year, largely driven by some below-expectation 2022 performances from existing prospects (as opposed to losses from the system due to trade/etc.). For instance, just looking at the middle of the system (call it the 5 to 20 prospects) from opening day 2022, the arrow has pointed down on Groome, Jordan, W. Gonzalez, Downs, Seabold, McDonough, Jimenez, etc. While that's partially offset by a breakout season from Rafaela, continued progress from Bleis, Walter, Wink, Murphy, etc. and the addition of Mikey Romaro and Roman Anthony in the draft and Luis Perales' arrival stateside, on net, I think the middle of the system is worse now than it was a year from now.
With that said, I don't think that middle of the system is anywhere close to being bad enough to drop them from middle of the pack to lower third in national rankings. Law is a much more "gut feel" ranker than most of the other national guys so I think he just pulled that from you-know-where.
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Post by 1toolplayer on Feb 2, 2023 12:18:42 GMT -5
Unintentional. I'm posing a legit question with regard to their immediate competition. I have no sense of the systems for most of the other teams outside the AL East except LAD and AZ. And I only know a little more than not about those only because, well, LAD is the model the whole league should be emulating - although, "hiring Tampa guys" apparently does not equate to hiring Andrew Friedman, which I think we all knew - and I have family in AZ who keep me apprised of their farm. I don't think anyone other than the national rankers keep close enough tabs on all those farm systems to have an actually informed opinion, but those national rankers generally have Boston behind Baltimore and Tampa but either in the same tier or a little better than New York and Toronto. Agree with this, but IMO, its rather inarguable the Red Sox have a better system than Toronto. Toronto has Tiedman, and I like their top pick Barreria, but he's a HS lefty, and we know the track record with those. Their best position player is someone who hit .203/.286/.446 with a 32% K rate at AA in a HR heavy park. Unless Tucker Toman, a hs bat, who I think we all liked in the draft last year blows up, their system IMO is the worst in the league.
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Post by iakovos11 on Feb 2, 2023 12:20:37 GMT -5
I do think there is some loss of depth over the last year, largely driven by some below-expectation 2022 performances from existing prospects (as opposed to losses from the system due to trade/etc.). For instance, just looking at the middle of the system (call it the 5 to 20 prospects) from opening day 2022, the arrow has pointed down on Groome, Jordan, W. Gonzalez, Downs, Seabold, McDonough, Jimenez, etc. While that's partially offset by a breakout season from Rafaela, continued progress from Bleis, Walter, Wink, Murphy, etc. and the addition of Mikey Romaro and Roman Anthony in the draft and Luis Perales' arrival stateside, on net, I think the middle of the system is worse now than it was a year from now. With that said, I don't think that middle of the system is anywhere close to being bad enough to drop them from middle of the pack to lower third in national rankings. Law is a much more "gut feel" ranker than most of the other national guys so I think he just pulled that from you-know-where. Small quibble. The perception may be down a tad on Wikelman nationally, as he did have some struggles in the first half that might bog down is overall numbers for the year, but he really seemed to out it together in August. All of a sudden something clicked and he earned a promotion to Greenville on August 17th, where he finished strong for the Drive. I think it was mostly a control thing. Not sure what the scouting says (not the website, but the scouts that saw early ion the year and then late in the year), but I'm not down on him.
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Post by kman22 on Feb 2, 2023 13:14:46 GMT -5
Law’s been lower than the rest of the industry on the farm system the last couple years. He had them 20th last year while BA and MLB had them 11th and FG had them 9th. I also don’t think rankings are all that worth getting worked up for because of the big discrepancies but also guys like Bello don’t count, and his rise was so quick he only made a big difference on these lists for such a short time. yup.. was just coming here to say that.... theathletic.com/3112765/2022/02/07/mlb-2022-farm-system-rankings-keith-law-grades-all-30-teams-on-prospects-with-the-dodgers-at-no-1/so Law is pretty much saying the sox farm system got worse this year.. which is horse poop to put in "kid friendly" Last year, "there's more pitching on the horizon than there's been in this system for a long time". This year "their group of pitching prospects is one of the weakest". I'm going to choose to believe that he was most optimistic about Bello and that his graduation hampered the system.
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Post by GyIantosca on Feb 2, 2023 13:24:15 GMT -5
I like to ask Law who gets more bang for the buck on there prospects? We have Championships and a lot of these teams would kill for one just one title. He is a borderline fraud.
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Post by texs31 on Feb 2, 2023 14:11:42 GMT -5
I like to ask Law who gets more bang for the buck on there prospects? We have Championships and a lot of these teams would kill for one just one title. He is a borderline fraud. Regardless of opinions on Law, I'm not sure this is the math that should get you there.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Feb 2, 2023 14:34:48 GMT -5
I don't think the system should be this low. But I'll echo most when pointing out the real lack of pitching in this farm system. I don't think it's been this bad in a while. Even when Dombrowski was here, you had Houck. However, it doesn't take into account Bello graduating. So the number is slightly worse than what it should be.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 2, 2023 15:07:04 GMT -5
I don't think the system should be this low. But I'll echo most when pointing out the real lack of pitching in this farm system. I don't think it's been this bad in a while. Even when Dombrowski was here, you had Houck. However, it doesn't take into account Bello graduating. So the number is slightly worse than what it should be. They don't have a top-tier pitching prospect now that Bello has just graduated, but I think a top 5 of Mata/Walter/Perales/Gonzalez/Murphy has got to be better than Darwinzon/Houck/Groome/Feltman/Mata was in 2019. In general the three years or so after they tradeed Espinoza and Kopech look pretty grim.
Taking a broader view, the young pitching as a whole seems like the strongest its been in quite a few years, with Whitlock, Houck, Bello, and Crawford in addition to the prospects. When was the last time they had that much good young pitching? The Lester/Buchholz/Papelbon years?
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 2, 2023 15:09:04 GMT -5
I don't think the system should be this low. But I'll echo most when pointing out the real lack of pitching in this farm system. I don't think it's been this bad in a while. Even when Dombrowski was here, you had Houck. However, it doesn't take into account Bello graduating. So the number is slightly worse than what it should be. There are no potential aces with prospect status knocking on the door right now I won't disagree but I think Mata, Walter and further down Perales, Rodriguez-Cruz and Wilkelman are intriguing enough arms that it's not as if the farm is completely bereft of talent in the pitching department. As you point out they've got Bello, Whitlock and Houck all young intriguing arms in the majors right now too. So while I know it's a discussion on the farm rankings once again it's not as if they don't have young talented arms.
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Post by bosoxnation on Feb 2, 2023 15:16:26 GMT -5
Law has us 1 spot above the padres. LMAO. I officially lost all respect for him. I just looked at our projected 23 rosters. I understand we need some more top tier pitching and I think that will be the focus on this draft but I also think if you can develop hitting you can pay for pitching or trade for it.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 2, 2023 15:19:21 GMT -5
Having Bello, Whitlock, Houck, and Schreiber under long term control at the MLB level is a nice place to start.
From the remaining group Mata, Walter, Murphy, Perales, Wilkelman, Winck, Crawford, etc none of them may have a good chance at sticking as a SP, but all it takes is one or two to exceed expectations to make a big impact. They also all have potential out of the pen. Towards the end of DD’s time here it seemed like nobody even had a fastball that would work in relief.
Almost everybody would agree quality matters more than quantity, but with pitching prospects, quantity really helps too. Boston has a lot of fliers making their way to the upper minors. With pitchers the flop rate is high, so I want as many bullets in the chamber as I can get.
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Post by jmei on Feb 2, 2023 15:20:10 GMT -5
I don't think the system should be this low. But I'll echo most when pointing out the real lack of pitching in this farm system. I don't think it's been this bad in a while. Even when Dombrowski was here, you had Houck. However, it doesn't take into account Bello graduating. So the number is slightly worse than what it should be. They don't have a top-tier pitching prospect now that Bello has just graduated, but I think a top 5 of Mata/Walter/Perales/Gonzalez/Murphy has got to be better than Darwinzon/Houck/Groome/Feltman/Mata was in 2019. In general the three years or so after they tradeed Espinoza and Kopech look pretty grim.
Taking a broader view, the young pitching as a whole seems like the strongest its been in quite a few years, with Whitlock, Houck, Bello, and Crawford in addition to the prospects. When was the last time they had that much good young pitching? The Lester/Buchholz/Papelbon years?
They have a bunch of decent pitching prospects in the high minors at the moment, but no one other than Bello and maybe Whitlock/Houck (to the extent that they stay in the rotation) who projects to be more than a back-end starter. Of course, the thing with back-end starters is sometimes they end up better than that, so having a bunch of those guys is still valuable. But, without the power of hindsight, I think the group of Barnes, Webster, De La Rosa, Owens, Ranaudo, Workman set in the ~2013-2014 timeframe blows the current group out of the water, especially in terms of upside.
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Post by jmei on Feb 2, 2023 15:21:41 GMT -5
By the way, pour one out for that 2013/14 group. I was super high on both Webster and De La Rosa at the time. If those guys didn't all blow up, Ben Cherington might still be GM
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 2, 2023 15:22:39 GMT -5
A question for those who might remember, was Houck actually ever a better prospect than Mata is now (let alone in 2019 when Dombrowski was here)? Or Walter even? He was ranked second when he graduated but I feel like that's partly a product of the system as a whole being better, like I don't think he was a better prospect than Rafaela or Bleis are now, and maybe partly a product of playing well in MLB before he graduated, but maybe I'm off on remembering where his star was.
His SP writeup says: "Potential late-inning reliever, with a chance to develop into a back-end starter if his splitter develops to complement his slider and he refines his fastball command."
Mata's is: "Projects as a back end starter or multi-inning relief arm with premium stuff to handle a late inning role if necessary. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter"
Walter: "Potential back-end starter. Ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Will show a starter's arsenal with three average-or-better pitches and the ability to turn over a lineup, but does not have a typical starter's delivery."
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Post by incandenza on Feb 2, 2023 15:34:03 GMT -5
They don't have a top-tier pitching prospect now that Bello has just graduated, but I think a top 5 of Mata/Walter/Perales/Gonzalez/Murphy has got to be better than Darwinzon/Houck/Groome/Feltman/Mata was in 2019. In general the three years or so after they tradeed Espinoza and Kopech look pretty grim.
Taking a broader view, the young pitching as a whole seems like the strongest its been in quite a few years, with Whitlock, Houck, Bello, and Crawford in addition to the prospects. When was the last time they had that much good young pitching? The Lester/Buchholz/Papelbon years?
They have a bunch of decent pitching prospects in the high minors at the moment, but no one other than Bello and maybe Whitlock/Houck (to the extent that they stay in the rotation) who projects to be more than a back-end starter. Of course, the thing with back-end starters is sometimes they end up better than that, so having a bunch of those guys is still valuable. But, without the power of hindsight, I think the group of Barnes, Webster, De La Rosa, Owens, Ranaudo, Workman set in the ~2013-2014 timeframe blows the current group out of the water, especially in terms of upside. Well, semantics, but I would agree that was a much stronger group of prospects at the time while still maintaining that the current group of young pitchers is better, given that Bello/Whitlock/Houck have already looked good at the major league level in a way that none of that group (other than Barnes as a reliever) ever did. Like, hindsight aside, you'd take Bello right now over Owens at his peak, right? And Whitlock over Webster? Houck over Ranaudo?
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 2, 2023 15:43:27 GMT -5
www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/red-sox-bottom-10-farm-system-ranking-indictment-teams-entire-plan?cid=Yahoo&partner=ya4nbcsIn the vein of Keith Law's rankings, has anyone seen this gem of an article from Tomase? I don't like Tomase, haven't for years but this may take the cake as one of if not his dumbest articles written. Let's write a whole article crapping all over the Sox and Bloom's plan and use one guys rankings who compared to the other major farm ranking writers/publications is a pretty big outlier. It's either lazy writing and he didn't want to bother checking the other publications or he didn't care and cherry-picked Law's rankings because it fit his narrative of the last year+ to crap all over the Sox and the FO.
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