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2022-2023 National Rankings (offseason)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 30, 2023 22:11:50 GMT -5
I typically don't like Law but that Mayer write up is pretty funny. What he's referring to is Keith and I were both at a doubleheader in Delmarva where Mayer looked awful in the first half of the first game and came out with a back injury that was apparently fine a couple days later. Fun fact - I also walked face first into a glass door that day, hard enough that I was dazed for a couple minutes. Weird juju at the park that day...
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Post by Jimmy on Jan 30, 2023 23:16:10 GMT -5
I typically don't like Law but that Mayer write up is pretty funny. What he's referring to is Keith and I were both at a doubleheader in Delmarva where Mayer looked awful in the first half of the first game and came out with a back injury that was apparently fine a couple days later. Fun fact - I also walked face first into a glass door that day, hard enough that I was dazed for a couple minutes. Weird juju at the park that day... Really looking forward to the Keith Law having Rafaela over Casas reaction on the next pod!
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Feb 1, 2023 8:22:51 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniels with his top 100
Mayer - 7 Casas - 37 Bleis - 95
Rafaela unranked but with a 50 FV mention.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 1, 2023 8:41:42 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniels with his top 100 Mayer - 7 Casas - 37 Bleis - 95 Rafaela unranked but with a 50 FV mention. Splitting hairs here and to each their own but I'm surprised at Bleis above Rafaela going into the season. I do like reading his comparison for Mayer of Yelich but at SS. Casas he compared to Rizzo but less fielding ability. No comparisons listed for Bleis.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 1, 2023 8:50:48 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniels with his top 100 Mayer - 7 Casas - 37 Bleis - 95 Rafaela unranked but with a 50 FV mention. Splitting hairs here and to each their own but I'm surprised at Bleis above Rafaela going into the season. I do like reading his comparison for Mayer of Yelich but at SS. Casas he compared to Rizzo but less fielding ability. No comparisons listed for Bleis. You're surprised McDaniel agrees with soxprospects.com?
The latest podcast had some discussion on both, including some brake-pumping on Rafaela. And I'm pretty confident in saying Ian and Chris would consider 95 way too low for Bleis.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 1, 2023 9:23:21 GMT -5
Splitting hairs here and to each their own but I'm surprised at Bleis above Rafaela going into the season. I do like reading his comparison for Mayer of Yelich but at SS. Casas he compared to Rizzo but less fielding ability. No comparisons listed for Bleis. You're surprised McDaniel agrees with soxprospects.com?
The latest podcast had some discussion on both, including some brake-pumping on Rafaela. And I'm pretty confident in saying Ian and Chris would consider 95 way too low for Bleis.
Ha not trying to disparage the site, my thought process is that as far as I can tell every other list has Rafaela higher than Bleis. In the case of Law he has him quite a bit higher, obviously McDaniel can think on his own and like I said it's probably splitting hairs. One is a guy with all the tools in the toolbox in Bleis but lower down the ladder and one is probably a more defense oriented player who may not ever be above average offensively but is perhaps a year or so away from being on the ML roster. I'm also not necessarily disagreeing with McDaniel which I should have added to my original post. I've said in other offseason threads that I considered Bleis as one of the guys I'd have dang near untouchable status on vs Rafaela who I would be 100 percent fine with trading if he could be the main player in a trade for an established player with years of control left.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 1, 2023 11:19:42 GMT -5
What he's referring to is Keith and I were both at a doubleheader in Delmarva where Mayer looked awful in the first half of the first game and came out with a back injury that was apparently fine a couple days later. Fun fact - I also walked face first into a glass door that day, hard enough that I was dazed for a couple minutes. Weird juju at the park that day... Really looking forward to the Keith Law having Rafaela over Casas reaction on the next pod! Keith Law chat ($) on Monday on Rafaela : "Aaron M. Curious about ranking Cedene[[sic]] Rafaela so high. Those who have tracked him all agree his defense could be elite in the majors now, but you seem less concerned about the swing and miss than others. Just personal preference or do you think the swing and miss worries are overrated? Keith Law @aaron M. I think the floor is really high, and the fact that it's more about chase than in-zone miss is less concerning. Also he was young/inexperienced for AA. I'll bet on an athlete like that where he already has such wrist/forearm strength and a foundation of speed and defense. (He should never see the infield again. He's way too good in CF.)" theathletic.com/4136377/2023/01/30/questions-keith-law-prospect-rankings/
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 1, 2023 19:22:34 GMT -5
You're surprised McDaniel agrees with soxprospects.com? The latest podcast had some discussion on both, including some brake-pumping on Rafaela. And I'm pretty confident in saying Ian and Chris would consider 95 way too low for Bleis.
Ha not trying to disparage the site, my thought process is that as far as I can tell every other list has Rafaela higher than Bleis. In the case of Law he has him quite a bit higher, obviously McDaniel can think on his own and like I said it's probably splitting hairs. One is a guy with all the tools in the toolbox in Bleis but lower down the ladder and one is probably a more defense oriented player who may not ever be above average offensively but is perhaps a year or so away from being on the ML roster. I'm also not necessarily disagreeing with McDaniel which I should have added to my original post. I've said in other offseason threads that I considered Bleis as one of the guys I'd have dang near untouchable status on vs Rafaela who I would be 100 percent fine with trading if he could be the main player in a trade for an established player with years of control left. I find the wide range of projections interesting and think they have less to do with Rafaela and more to do with a disagreement amongst scouts as to the value of a Rafaela-type player. It's easy to see him turning into a hybrid Grichuk/Grisham (bat/glove) type player (~2 fWAR) but with refinement of his approach turning into a Mullins/Varsho type player (3-5 fWAR).
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Post by jphelan on Feb 2, 2023 7:47:15 GMT -5
Keith Law ranks Red Sox as 23rd system.
23. Boston Red Sox
Their group of position-player prospects is probably in the upper half of farm systems, but their group of pitching prospects is one of the weakest. They might not have a future MLB starter anywhere on their full-season rosters; the best of those candidates all have huge reliever risk, at least. They lost one guy from their top-100 group last year, as Nick Yorke, their shocking first-round pick in 2020, hit just .232/.302/.365 in High A. He’ll turn 21 in April, though, and has time to recover.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Feb 2, 2023 7:50:15 GMT -5
Keith Law ranks Red Sox as 23rd system. 23. Boston Red Sox Their group of position-player prospects is probably in the upper half of farm systems, but their group of pitching prospects is one of the weakest. They might not have a future MLB starter anywhere on their full-season rosters; the best of those candidates all have huge reliever risk, at least. They lost one guy from their top-100 group last year, as Nick Yorke, their shocking first-round pick in 2020, hit just .232/.302/.365 in High A. He’ll turn 21 in April, though, and has time to recover. Pretty ridiculous take from Law IMO, especially since he's so high on Rafaela. It's going to be annoying to hear a chorus "CHAIM BLOOM TRADED MOOKIE FOR THE 23rd BEST FARM SYSTEM" every time we lose a game this year.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 2, 2023 8:16:56 GMT -5
Keith Law ranks Red Sox as 23rd system. 23. Boston Red Sox Their group of position-player prospects is probably in the upper half of farm systems, but their group of pitching prospects is one of the weakest. They might not have a future MLB starter anywhere on their full-season rosters; the best of those candidates all have huge reliever risk, at least. They lost one guy from their top-100 group last year, as Nick Yorke, their shocking first-round pick in 2020, hit just .232/.302/.365 in High A. He’ll turn 21 in April, though, and has time to recover. I really don't disagree all that much with this pitchers take but I don't get the point in saying they lost one guy from the top 100 in Yorke while they gained what two in Raefela and Bleis? Two is better than one so they netted one extra top 100 prospect. Then again they'll lose Casas rather shortly into the season so in a way they broke even in terms of top 100 guys. I suppose it's easy to say as Sox prospects followers and posters that 23 seems low but I guess I don't find it completely egregious either. I guess I'd like to know what he ranked them last year, anyone know what that was?
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Feb 2, 2023 8:30:57 GMT -5
Considering the past decade of pitching development with this organization, Bello and Whitlock holding mid rotation sports with some combination of Mata, Walter and Houck serving as late inning relievers for the next 5 years is not an unreasonable outcome with major payroll flexibility incentives.
I wonder where Law would rank the organization if Bello threw 10 less innings?
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Post by jmei on Feb 2, 2023 8:39:20 GMT -5
I think the numerical ranking is almost certainly wrong if you go through any sort of quantitative exercise, but Law has a point about the lack of starting pitching throughout the system.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 2, 2023 9:11:12 GMT -5
I think the numerical ranking is almost certainly wrong if you go through any sort of quantitative exercise, but Law has a point about the lack of starting pitching throughout the system. TINSTAAPP. But really I wouldn’t penalize the org’s ranking so much for that perception of their pitching.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 2, 2023 9:35:54 GMT -5
Law’s been lower than the rest of the industry on the farm system the last couple years. He had them 20th last year while BA and MLB had them 11th and FG had them 9th.
I also don’t think rankings are all that worth getting worked up for because of the big discrepancies but also guys like Bello don’t count, and his rise was so quick he only made a big difference on these lists for such a short time.
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 2, 2023 9:40:33 GMT -5
Law’s been lower than the rest of the industry on the farm system the last couple years. He had them 20th last year while BA and MLB had them 11th and FG had them 9th. I also don’t think rankings are all that worth getting worked up for because of the big discrepancies but also guys like Bello don’t count, and his rise was so quick he only made a big difference on these lists for such a short time. yup.. was just coming here to say that.... theathletic.com/3112765/2022/02/07/mlb-2022-farm-system-rankings-keith-law-grades-all-30-teams-on-prospects-with-the-dodgers-at-no-1/so Law is pretty much saying the sox farm system got worse this year.. which is horse poop to put in "kid friendly"
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Post by Guidas on Feb 2, 2023 9:42:31 GMT -5
I think the numerical ranking is almost certainly wrong if you go through any sort of quantitative exercise, but Law has a point about the lack of starting pitching throughout the system. Evergreen quote since 2008.
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 2, 2023 9:50:43 GMT -5
I think the numerical ranking is almost certainly wrong if you go through any sort of quantitative exercise, but Law has a point about the lack of starting pitching throughout the system. Evergreen quote since 2008. ok, but explain how is rankings are huge freaking outliers when looking at his farm rankings in 2022 vs MLB.com and fangrahps for example
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Post by jmei on Feb 2, 2023 9:52:19 GMT -5
I think the numerical ranking is almost certainly wrong if you go through any sort of quantitative exercise, but Law has a point about the lack of starting pitching throughout the system. Evergreen quote since 2008. I don't think that's fair. They had a fair number of highly-touted (top 100 contender) starting pitching prospects in that stretch. Guys like Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, De La Rosa, Webster, Rodriguez, Kopech, Espinoza, Groome. Only one of those guys worked out as a starting pitcher in Boston (Eduardo Rodriguez was a legit #2/#3 starter for half a decade), but Barnes did well in the bullpen and Kopech still has some sparkle. It does illustrate the high attrition rate for starting pitcher prospects, though.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 2, 2023 10:02:13 GMT -5
At the end of the day, it's just one writers opinion and we can take it or leave it. Not like it upsets me that he ranks the Sox that low but my main qualm is him having the Sox at 20 last year but 23 this year. Someone perhaps correct me if I'm wrong but it seems like in terms of the writers the industry wide perception has the Sox ranked closer to the 10-15 range and that the farm has taken some steps forward in the last year or two.
As I said it's just his opinion and I don't outright disagree with much in that little blurb but I will disagree that the farm has overall fallen lower in the league wide rankings from last year to this year but hey I'm a Red Sox homer and Sox Prospect poster so that's to be expected.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 2, 2023 10:02:18 GMT -5
Evergreen quote since 2008. I don't think that's fair. They had a fair number of highly-touted (top 100 contender) starting pitching prospects in that stretch. Guys like Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens, De La Rosa, Webster, Rodriguez, Kopech, Espinoza, Groome. Only one of those guys worked out as a starting pitcher in Boston (Eduardo Rodriguez was a legit #2/#3 starter for half a decade), but Barnes did well in the bullpen and Kopech still has some sparkle. It does illustrate the high attrition rate for starting pitcher prospects, though. I agree with the attrition rate and variance points. But I would add that every team faces that and yet this team, through multiple GMs since Theo, has had an extremely difficult time developing anything better than a #5/4 starter once/if they reach MLB. There are a couple or three outliers since 2008, but that's a very poor track record. Rodriguez, who I really liked, went through almost all his development in the Baltimore system. Kudos to Cherington for acquiring him, but he, too, is an outlier. It's been entirely frustrating to watch. I mean, this isn't Colorado. You'd think that, after so much time with guys either not reaching projections or just not developing they'd overpay and overclassify a couple pitching gurus from teams that are successful developing pitchers and see how other orgs do this and are successful.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 2, 2023 10:06:24 GMT -5
I think the numerical ranking is almost certainly wrong if you go through any sort of quantitative exercise, but Law has a point about the lack of starting pitching throughout the system. I don't know much about the other systems, but just in the AL East, who would we have ranked lower than the Sox? My gut instinct is NYY - which almost seems like a mirror of the Sox with some near MLB-ready guys and a few other A or lower prospects. But the projections for Balt (which tanked in multiple years), TB (I see the Bulls often and they have been cycling up talent annually like tires off an assembly line) and Toronto seem accurate as appear to have better systems than the Sox. Anyone disagree?
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 2, 2023 10:08:46 GMT -5
The team is clearly prioritizing hitting prospects over pitching prospects. The regime's top 9 draft bonus offers have been to hitters. The top international signings have all been hitters, too.
I'm fine with it. Any time there is a subjective ranking that includes hitting and pitching prospects, the similarly ranked hitters end up with much better outcomes.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 2, 2023 10:15:33 GMT -5
The team is clearly prioritizing hitting prospects over pitching prospects. The regime's top 9 draft bonus offers have been to hitters. The top international signings have all been hitters, too. I'm fine with it. Any time there is a subjective ranking that includes hitting and pitching prospects, the similarly ranked hitters end up with much better outcomes. Yeah statistically position players are a much better gamble. I’m happy with the approach
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Post by jmei on Feb 2, 2023 10:18:34 GMT -5
I think the numerical ranking is almost certainly wrong if you go through any sort of quantitative exercise, but Law has a point about the lack of starting pitching throughout the system. I don't know much about the other systems, but just in the AL East, who would we have ranked lower than the Sox? My gut instinct is NYY - which almost seems like a mirror of the Sox with some near MLB-ready guys and a few other A or lower prospects. But the projections for Balt (which tanked in multiple years), TB (I see the Bulls often and they have been cycling up talent annually like tires off an assembly line) and Toronto seem accurate as appear to have better systems than the Sox. Anyone disagree? That's moving the goalposts. We're talking about where they rank relative to the entire league. I'd have the system in the 10-15 range. Mayer/Cases/Bleis/Rafaela is a really good top four, and while none of Crawford/Wink/Mata/Walter/Murphy is a slam dunk long-term starting pitcher, they're all MLB-ready with options and I think one of them sticks as a legit mid-rotation starter and a couple others become legitimate bullpen weapons.
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