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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 3, 2022 12:54:01 GMT -5
I don't get stressed about the character question introducing subjectivity to Hall decisions. Hall decisions have always hinged on enormous subjectivity.
Vizquel and Helton, cited above, are two good examples. For the reasons manfred noted, he was a tough call before we knew about his freaky behavior. I leaned no, but now I wouldn't even consider him. But it's classic YMMV on both character and performance with him.
I thought Helton was on the bubble on performance until I heard Dan O'Dowd say in an attention-grabbing way that Helton's numbers were not entirely due to Coors. I sat up when he said: "On the road, he was Carl Yastrzemski." I looked it up and damn, his road numbers were close to Yaz's career numbers: .289/.386/.469 for Helton on the road; .285/.380/.462 overall for The Great Man. (Helton obviously lacked Yaz's longevity and doesn't have his stature as one of the two or three top defenders ever at his position.)
I'm with Champs in thinking that Helton's DWI shouldn't disqualify him, but that if he had killed someone, I'd be out. I'm making a subjective judgment there, just as I did in being convinced by O'Dowd on his performance qualifications.
So, Schilling (big sigh). As disgusted as I was with his bigotry, I was a yes vote on him until he endorsed a violent attempt to overthrow the United States government. I have no formula or metric to cite to defend why I would have put him put in pre-riot or why I would keep him out post-riot. Some people excluded him before Jan. 6. Others still support his candidacy post-Jan. 6.
My overall point here is that character questions don't make Hall qualification subjective. They just add another layer of subjectivity. Each year's ballot has a bunch of guys that knowledgeable fans like us see differently.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 4, 2022 10:23:50 GMT -5
538.com has a story that does that site's usual good job of applying stats to determine the outcome of the Eras Committee vote. (I just tried to go to it again but I got a flashing notice from my computer security provider that the site may contain malware, so I'd stay away for now.)
The story says that because voters are limited to three selections each it's likely that nobody gets to 12. It says the 'roid guys have a tough hill to climb because Jack Morris and Ryne Sandberg have both said they don't want PED users in the Hall. It also points out that Ken Williams, when he was GM of the CWS, said he wouldn't acquire a 'roid player. That's three of the 16 votes Bonds, Clemens and Palmiero are unlikely to get.
Nonetheless, I'll predict that Schilling and McGriff get to 12. I'm rooting for McGriff and will shrug my shoulders if Schilling makes it. I'll look forward to his induction speech with a combination of amusement and dread.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 4, 2022 11:18:01 GMT -5
538.com has a story that does that site's usual good job of applying stats to determine the outcome of the Eras Committee vote. (I just tried to go to it again but I got a flashing notice from my computer security provider that the site may contain malware, so I'd stay away for now.) The story says that because voters are limited to three selections each it's likely that nobody gets to 12. It says the 'roid guys have a tough hill to climb because Jack Morris and Ryne Sandberg have both said they don't want PED users in the Hall. It also points out that Ken Williams, when he was GM of the CWS, said he wouldn't acquire a 'roid player. That's three of the 16 votes Bonds, Clemens and Palmiero are unlikely to get. Nonetheless, I'll predict that Schilling and McGriff get to 12. I'm rooting for McGriff and will shrug my shoulders if Schilling makes it. I'll look forward to his induction speech with a combination of amusement and dread. My gut feeling is that only McGriff gets in and that Schilling will wind up a vote or two short. I don't think he was any more popular among the players than he was the writers.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 4, 2022 12:16:20 GMT -5
538.com has a story that does that site's usual good job of applying stats to determine the outcome of the Eras Committee vote. (I just tried to go to it again but I got a flashing notice from my computer security provider that the site may contain malware, so I'd stay away for now.) The story says that because voters are limited to three selections each it's likely that nobody gets to 12. It says the 'roid guys have a tough hill to climb because Jack Morris and Ryne Sandberg have both said they don't want PED users in the Hall. It also points out that Ken Williams, when he was GM of the CWS, said he wouldn't acquire a 'roid player. That's three of the 16 votes Bonds, Clemens and Palmiero are unlikely to get. Nonetheless, I'll predict that Schilling and McGriff get to 12. I'm rooting for McGriff and will shrug my shoulders if Schilling makes it. I'll look forward to his induction speech with a combination of amusement and dread. It's hard for me to see anyone getting in for exactly this reason: a voter doesn't just need to support, e.g., McGriff; they need to count McGriff in their top three most worthy candidates. Several voters, I imagine, will have Bonds and Clemens taking up two of those spots, which squeezes votes away from other candidates, even as Bonds and Clemens themselves have little chance of getting in.
The committee members might try to coordinate around McGriff (or one of the others) but he only got 40% his last time on the BBWAA ballot and it's hard to see him nearly doubling that support among the Good Ol' Boys Era Committee.
Actually, Schilling might be the best bet, as he did much better among the BBWAA than McGriff, and his seditious politics and bigotry are probably more likely to be a dealbreaker among writers than among ex-athletes and executives. Though I'd still bet against it.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 4, 2022 12:32:05 GMT -5
I thought we weren't doing politics.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 4, 2022 12:45:30 GMT -5
I thought we weren't doing politics. I'm not debating the politics and have no desire to; I'm pointing out factors that obviously matter to Schilling's vote total in different venues.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Dec 4, 2022 20:11:19 GMT -5
Mcgriff is the only one to get in
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 4, 2022 20:12:09 GMT -5
538.com has a story that does that site's usual good job of applying stats to determine the outcome of the Eras Committee vote. (I just tried to go to it again but I got a flashing notice from my computer security provider that the site may contain malware, so I'd stay away for now.) The story says that because voters are limited to three selections each it's likely that nobody gets to 12. It says the 'roid guys have a tough hill to climb because Jack Morris and Ryne Sandberg have both said they don't want PED users in the Hall. It also points out that Ken Williams, when he was GM of the CWS, said he wouldn't acquire a 'roid player. That's three of the 16 votes Bonds, Clemens and Palmiero are unlikely to get. Nonetheless, I'll predict that Schilling and McGriff get to 12. I'm rooting for McGriff and will shrug my shoulders if Schilling makes it. I'll look forward to his induction speech with a combination of amusement and dread. My gut feeling is that only McGriff gets in and that Schilling will wind up a vote or two short. I don't think he was any more popular among the players than he was the writers. Yup. Except I'm really off on Schilling. He didnt even get 50% of the vote. His contemporaries think even less of him than the sportswriters. And they certainly didnt like the steroid guys either. Glad for McGriff. They got that right. He belongs.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Dec 4, 2022 20:14:07 GMT -5
Schilling got 7 votes not even half
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Post by incandenza on Dec 4, 2022 20:22:35 GMT -5
Mcgriff is the only one to get in Pleasantly surprised!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 4, 2022 20:25:40 GMT -5
Despite my personal feelings regarding Schilling's "opinions", the guy should be a HOFer. Maybe nobody wants to hear his HOF speech, lol.
Either way the guy is a HOF player in my book.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 4, 2022 20:35:17 GMT -5
McGriff might the only person on the HOF podium in July 2023.
My guess is that the writers pitch a shutout next month. Maybe Scott Rolen gets in?
I think it's just as likely or more likely that the writers elect nobody.
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Post by manfred on Dec 4, 2022 20:36:29 GMT -5
I’m a small enough HOF guy that I do not think McGriff should be in. Consistently, he was good. His 7-year prime was low, and his career WAR is relatively low.
No biggie, though.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 4, 2022 22:43:14 GMT -5
McGriff was great. I feel like he was helped some by the way the ballot turned out - of all the players for whom character wasn't going to be an issue, he was very, very clearly the best. Like Murphy and Mattingly were great at their peaks but their careers really just don't measure up to McGriff at all. Even for people who wouldn't have been inclined to vote for him, it's kind of hard to feel strongly against him.
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Post by keninten on Dec 5, 2022 3:02:31 GMT -5
I`m a small HOF guy. After Harold Baines got in don`t know where I stand anymore. McGriff seems more deserving than Baines.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,765
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Post by mobaz on Dec 5, 2022 9:51:36 GMT -5
I`m a small HOF guy. After Harold Baines got in don`t know where I stand anymore. McGriff seems more deserving than Baines. McGriff really surprises me. I lean toward rewarding the Very Best even if they had shorter length careers, never liked the "pretty good for a long time" guys. He's not that great on any BR HoF measures (32nd best 1st basemen among other). As I said last year, Schilling should have gotten in 10 years ago and then we'd never have needed to hear from/about him again. Shocked the committee was so against Bonds & Clemens, though I guess they might be bringing in personality biases there too, since they weren't ones to build bridges during or after their careers.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 5, 2022 10:08:35 GMT -5
I'm happy for McGriff to be in the Hall, but there is something a little silly about this system: you spend 10 years being voted on in an elaborate drawn out process, every single year, your every virtue and demerit as a candidate hashed out in a public, and through all that you max out at 40% support, barely more than half of what you need to be elected.
And then two years later a dozen guys meet in a room and are like "Sure buddy, you can be in the hall of fame!"
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Post by Guidas on Dec 5, 2022 10:40:10 GMT -5
Schilling got 7 votes not even half He only needs 12. More than halfway there.
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Post by Coreno on Dec 5, 2022 15:08:36 GMT -5
I'm happy for McGriff to be in the Hall, but there is something a little silly about this system: you spend 10 years being voted on in an elaborate drawn out process, every single year, your every virtue and demerit as a candidate hashed out in a public, and through all that you max out at 40% support, barely more than half of what you need to be elected. And then two years later a dozen guys meet in a room and are like "Sure buddy, you can be in the hall of fame!" Hey you put some respect on his name. That's a first (era committee) ballot hall of famer.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 5, 2022 17:13:51 GMT -5
I'm happy for McGriff to be in the Hall, but there is something a little silly about this system: you spend 10 years being voted on in an elaborate drawn out process, every single year, your every virtue and demerit as a candidate hashed out in a public, and through all that you max out at 40% support, barely more than half of what you need to be elected. And then two years later a dozen guys meet in a room and are like "Sure buddy, you can be in the hall of fame!" I think the system is fine but the people determining who gets on the ballot and those doing the actual voting do a lousy job. The Vets Committee (and now the Eras Committee) has often fulfilled its role nicely by electing guys that the writers missed on for whatever reason. McGriff is a prime example of that for me. So was Lee Smith. OTOH the Committee has elected Bill Mazeroski, Harold Baines, Tony Oliva and other questionable guys while ignoring Luis Tiant and his 66 B-Ref WAR. This year's ballot was a joke. Dwight Evans (67 B-Ref WAR) and Lou Whitaker (76 B-Ref WAR), were omitted while 40-something WAR guys Belle, Mattingly and Murphy were included. The ballot included the three forties, three frauds (Bonds, Clemens, Palmeiro) and a fool (Schilling). I guess you say Dewey got F'ed!
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,967
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Post by jimoh on Dec 5, 2022 19:07:49 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 5, 2022 19:24:15 GMT -5
Yeah, I know. He was a HOFer in between the lines in my opinion and the nicest thing I can say about him is that he hasn't personally murdered anybody, despite his moronic shirt. Other that that I have nothing nice to say so I wont say anything else.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 5, 2022 20:58:37 GMT -5
It really is the funniest damn thing that he did better in the vote with the group of people he said ought to be murdered than he did with the people he actually worked with.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 5, 2022 21:25:17 GMT -5
It really is the funniest damn thing that he did better in the vote with the group of people he said ought to be murdered than he did with the people he actually worked with. All he had to do is not be a total nozzle. He had what, 71% of the vote with another year left of eligibility? I have no doubt he would have gotten in last year if not for his foolishness. In a different scenario I would have liked him going in with Ortiz and all that talk about the 2004 Red Sox and 2007 Red Sox, but.....never happened.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 5, 2022 22:12:27 GMT -5
Looking ahead, next year's Eras Committee vote looks like a snoozer, as the eligibles will be executives, managers and umpires who had their greatest impact since 1980. We'll probably see guys like Piniella, Cowboy Joe West, Sandy Alderson, etc. on the ballot. Bruce Bochy would be eligible, except that he came out of retirement to take the Rangers job.
It'll get interesting again two years from now when they consider players who made their greatest contributions before 1980. I look forward to getting my hopes up for sanity to prevail and Luis Tiant to get elected and then feeling crushed and PO'ed again when he doesn't.😒
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