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Post by wOBA Fett on Nov 14, 2023 22:49:16 GMT -5
What are we thinking the future holds for the following pitchers? I'd have thought the new FO would prefer to keep the younger pitcher than hold on to fringy pitching assets collected by the old regime.
Llovera Jacques Mills Kelley
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Nov 14, 2023 22:49:19 GMT -5
No one has explained why they think he won't be picked. That part is slightly important if you're trying to explain why not protecting him makes sense.
Because Drohan getting picked isn't quite the question. If he gets picked and returned who cares? If he gets picked and isn't good, who cares? If he ends up having to get DFA and claimed, that's far worse. I completely understand the point about the DFA and claim being really rough, no issue with that point. But this comment leaves out a third possibility, which is that he gets claimed and actually pitches well, in which case it's a senseless loss of an asset.
I get that the team may want to try to sneak him through and hope he doesn't get picked, but I'm just not sure how likely that is. Chris, what would you put the chance of Drohan getting picked at?
If he gets put on the 40 man, and you realize that you need to clear more spots than all their 4A talent takes up, it seems like a trade could be put together to ship him out for something. Or, he could be packaged as part of a deal for another player. If teams have interest in him as a possible trade candidate, I'm sure they'll have at least some interest in him as a rule 5 pick, as well.
Note: please do not respond about how Drohan sucks, I've seen the other responses, thanks.
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Post by nonothing on Nov 14, 2023 23:10:01 GMT -5
From MLB.com:
Scouting grades: Fastball: 45 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 45 | Overall: 40
He won't pitch well enough to stick as a starter, and he doesn't have a typical bullpen arm.
There is probably an 80%+ chance he would be returned.
Breslow, who knows more about left-handed pitching than probably any of us on here, has evaluated it and is comfortable that he can take this risk. If you have over 80% chance of being able to keep him and do so off the 40-man, that is likely the correct call, especially as they probably will bring in other guys we aren't talking about who are equally good or better.
Not sure I understand the passion for keeping a guy with a subpar fastball and below average command because he had a couple good months at a lower level that you want to value above more months at a higher level.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 14, 2023 23:10:16 GMT -5
I was quite encouraged during his AA stint and so I watched Drohan's Worcester games. I'm not a scout but my take is that there's something wrong physically. He really struggled with his release point, just herky-jerky with hardly any repeatability. Couple that with the numbers Hatfield rolled out and it doesn't add up to a positive outlook. My guess is that all that will be a red flag for teams.
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Post by nonothing on Nov 14, 2023 23:13:52 GMT -5
Curious if people have favorites they would like to see us take with our open slot, assuming we keep one ahead of the Rule 5 draft?
I threw out Ethan Hankins on the Guardians.
Who are others?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,083
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Post by cdj on Nov 14, 2023 23:42:08 GMT -5
Because Drohan getting picked isn't quite the question. If he gets picked and returned who cares? If he gets picked and isn't good, who cares? If he ends up having to get DFA and claimed, that's far worse. I completely understand the point about the DFA and claim being really rough, no issue with that point. But this comment leaves out a third possibility, which is that he gets claimed and actually pitches well, in which case it's a senseless loss of an asset I’m sure they weighed the chances of that 3rd possibility happening and given how he performed in AAA they came to the conclusion that it’s very unlikely, and thus we got the decision we got And you may say “don’t say he sucks” but like…he kinda performed very poorly by all accounts and that’s absolutely something that’s factored in. So I don’t know what you want people to say. He doesn’t “suck” and he may still very well have a big league future- it’s just very unlikely he’s ready to make a big league impact right now and he doesn’t have the stuff of a Gonzalez or Perales that you can dream on. Sure a bad team can hide him and keep him even if he performs poorly in the bigs but he’s a 25 YO with no AAA or MLB success at that point so is it a real loss? I’m pretty sure he’ll get picked and I’m pretty sure he’ll perform poorly if they try to keep him on a big league roster. If he shoves then they’ll regret it. I’m sure they’ve factored those odds into their decision making though and they know a lot more about him than us.
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Post by soxaddict on Nov 15, 2023 0:05:06 GMT -5
Curious if people have favorites they would like to see us take with our open slot, assuming we keep one ahead of the Rule 5 draft? I threw out Ethan Hankins on the Guardians. Who are others? Matt Sauer, RHP (No. 25), New York Yankees
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Post by nonothing on Nov 15, 2023 0:07:02 GMT -5
Haven't heard any complaints re: leaving Penrod unprotected. It is possible that he is viewed as having a better LT future than Drohan as well. He is technically farther away from MLB, but he might be more equipped to be thrown in an MLB bullpen and get kept.
Hopefully teams select others with higher level affiliated ball experience. But his albeit brief performance in A+ and then AFL, plus some scouting on this site (I think from Ian) makes me think he may be more likely to move up quickly with enough of a fastball that would enable him to compete ultimately at the big league level with some development work.
I think he will be interesting to watch and see if he can quickly get through AA up to AAA this year.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 15, 2023 0:44:30 GMT -5
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Post by keninten on Nov 15, 2023 0:45:31 GMT -5
For a team to add Drohan would be a pretty big leap. He got promoted to AAA and sucked. And some think an MLB team is going to want to pick him? It will have to be a team like the A`s to take him. It wouldn`t be stupid for the A`s to draft in the Rule 5 like they are an expansion team. I`m sure they have 4 or 5 spots they could upgrade.
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Post by keninten on Nov 15, 2023 0:57:10 GMT -5
Curious if people have favorites they would like to see us take with our open slot, assuming we keep one ahead of the Rule 5 draft? I threw out Ethan Hankins on the Guardians. Who are others? I would have said Austin Martin but he`s was protected by the Twins. Tyler Owens with the Braves, Brandon Valenzuela but a catcher would be tough to keep on the 25 man roster.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Nov 15, 2023 6:55:37 GMT -5
Thanks for posting. What jumped out to me is that there were a lot more interesting position players available. I think everybody realizes that pitchers are much more likely to stick and are using that new conventional wisdom to slide position players through. If I was KC or Oak I’d spend less time thinking about a pitcher who was terrible in AAA and more time thinking about trying to zag to a position player. The hurdle to keeping position player development going through a lost rule 5 season may just be too big, but that’s what would tempt me at the top of the draft.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 15, 2023 7:35:22 GMT -5
What are we thinking the future holds for the following pitchers? I'd have thought the new FO would prefer to keep the younger pitcher than hold on to fringy pitching assets collected by the old regime. Llovera Jacques Mills Kelley Pretty decent chance none of those guys last the off-season on the 40 and this is a false choice. Personally I like Kelly though.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 15, 2023 7:42:30 GMT -5
The top Rays guys left open are interesting. And not for the Red Sox but for some team not ready to compete I’d think De La Cruz on the Phillies is worth taking. 6’8 with crazy raw power and good defense, ready at least for AAA anyways.
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Post by stevedillard on Nov 15, 2023 8:41:20 GMT -5
Playing on the reported disconnect between Bloom's view and the rest of the baseball ops, I wonder if views on Drohan diverged so that Bloom believed in pitchablity more than the ops. Now that he's gone, and Breslow is more aligned with the baseball ops view, Drohan's value -- large measure based on Bloom's theories -- had taken a large hit.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 15, 2023 8:44:25 GMT -5
Playing on the reported disconnect between Bloom's view and the rest of the baseball ops, I wonder if views on Drohan diverged so that Bloom believed in pitchablity more than the ops. Now that he's gone, and Breslow is more aligned with the baseball ops view, Drohan's value -- large measure based on Bloom's theories -- had taken a large hit. Where was this reported?
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Post by briam on Nov 15, 2023 8:58:23 GMT -5
It just seems like another missed opportunity to extract value from an asset. He's almost certainly going to get picked, doesn’t that indicate he has value? Even if its a low level lottery ticket we never hear of again, its better than him walking for nothing.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 15, 2023 9:08:51 GMT -5
It just seems like another missed opportunity to extract value from an asset. He's almost certainly going to get picked, doesn’t that indicate he has value? Even if its a low level lottery ticket we never hear of again, its better than him walking for nothing. If you put him on the 40 man you decrease his trade value and probably will have to waive him at some point this year and lose him for nothing anyway Now if he’s not good enough to stick on a MLB roster (a likely scenario) we get him back and he’s not on the 40 man roster. And he now has more value in a prospective trade because the acquiring team won’t have to put him on the 40 immediately (they’ll have til next offseason to avoid the rule 5, but at least it’s not immediate and allows them to see how much development they can get done before having to make that call)
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Post by briam on Nov 15, 2023 10:39:32 GMT -5
It just seems like another missed opportunity to extract value from an asset. He's almost certainly going to get picked, doesn’t that indicate he has value? Even if its a low level lottery ticket we never hear of again, its better than him walking for nothing. If you put him on the 40 man you decrease his trade value and probably will have to waive him at some point this year and lose him for nothing anyway Now if he’s not good enough to stick on a MLB roster (a likely scenario) we get him back and he’s not on the 40 man roster. And he now has more value in a prospective trade because the acquiring team won’t have to put him on the 40 immediately (they’ll have to next offseason to avoid the rule 5, but at least it’s not immediate and allows them to see how much development they can get done before having to make that call) Thad Ward was horrendous and stuck on a MLB roster. Theres a lot of bad teams with space on their 40 man for a AAA prospect who excelled during the first half of 2022, I think it would be much more likely than not that he sticks.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 15, 2023 10:51:45 GMT -5
Because Drohan getting picked isn't quite the question. If he gets picked and returned who cares? If he gets picked and isn't good, who cares? If he ends up having to get DFA and claimed, that's far worse. I completely understand the point about the DFA and claim being really rough, no issue with that point. But this comment leaves out a third possibility, which is that he gets claimed and actually pitches well, in which case it's a senseless loss of an asset. I get that the team may want to try to sneak him through and hope he doesn't get picked, but I'm just not sure how likely that is. Chris, what would you put the chance of Drohan getting picked at? If he gets put on the 40 man, and you realize that you need to clear more spots than all their 4A talent takes up, it seems like a trade could be put together to ship him out for something. Or, he could be packaged as part of a deal for another player. If teams have interest in him as a possible trade candidate, I'm sure they'll have at least some interest in him as a rule 5 pick, as well. Note: please do not respond about how Drohan sucks, I've seen the other responses, thanks.
First of all I'm not saying Drohan sucks. I'd have protected him. The pretty clear response is that they think that it's worth the risk, based on whatever combination of the chances he'll get picked and stick, their evaluation/whether they even care, and their evaluation of the chances they'll regret using a 40-man spot on him. I think you're over-estimating his trade value if he's on the 40. If the Red Sox add him then get to say, March, and need to move him, you think anyone is bailing them out? Just look at your reasoning. If teams have interest in him in trades, they'll have interest in picking him. Yeah. And so then if they have no interest in him in trades they're not going to have interest in picking him. I don't know what interest there will be in Drohan. He might get picked. He might not. We'll see. My point has merely been that this isn't an all-caps, outrage-level mistake, IMO.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 15, 2023 11:13:38 GMT -5
If you put him on the 40 man you decrease his trade value and probably will have to waive him at some point this year and lose him for nothing anyway Now if he’s not good enough to stick on a MLB roster (a likely scenario) we get him back and he’s not on the 40 man roster. And he now has more value in a prospective trade because the acquiring team won’t have to put him on the 40 immediately (they’ll have to next offseason to avoid the rule 5, but at least it’s not immediate and allows them to see how much development they can get done before having to make that call) Thad Ward was horrendous and stuck on a MLB roster. Theres a lot of bad teams with space on their 40 man for a AAA prospect who excelled during the first half of 2022, I think it would be much more likely than not that he sticks. If Drohan is horrendous and sticks like Ward then he’s a 26 YO with no AAA or MLB success and is that really a loss to be concerned about?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 15, 2023 11:48:26 GMT -5
What are the odds that Drohan just needs another year at AAA to develop into something more than just another up-and-down mop-up guy? That's the question that the FO is asking itself when making this decision.
Apparently, the Sox decided that those odds are low. Maybe they think up-and-down mop-up guy is his ultimate ceiling -- is that a guy you reserve a 40-man spot for? I know he's still relatively young, but so far his ceiling has been good AA starter.
The 40-man roster is an important resource for the current big-league club. If a guy is unlikely to contribute right now, to the 2024 Boston Red Sox, he better have a high probability of being a significant contributor within three years if he's going to take up a 40-man spot.
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Post by briam on Nov 15, 2023 12:17:19 GMT -5
Thad Ward was horrendous and stuck on a MLB roster. Theres a lot of bad teams with space on their 40 man for a AAA prospect who excelled during the first half of 2022, I think it would be much more likely than not that he sticks. If Drohan is horrendous and sticks like Ward then he’s a 26 YO with no AAA or MLB success and is that really a loss to be concerned about? That’s fair, but a team’s top 20 prospect should have some value, that’s my main gripe.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 15, 2023 12:28:01 GMT -5
Prospect rankings do not take into account roster status (rule 5 eligibility, options etc). A #20 prospect who is three years away from being Rule 5 eligible has value. A #20 prospect that requires you to devote scarce roster space to him probably doesn't
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Post by briam on Nov 15, 2023 12:40:50 GMT -5
Prospect rankings do not take into account roster status (rule 5 eligibility, options etc). A #20 prospect who is three years away from being Rule 5 eligible has value. A #20 prospect that requires you to devote scarce roster space to him probably doesn't Isn’t a top 15 prospect in AAA that has shown stretches of quality pitching the exact type of guy teams would be interested in, regardless of proximity to rule 5 eligibility?
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