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Patriots 2023 Offseason Thread
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Post by costpet on Sept 5, 2023 8:00:30 GMT -5
Read that Philly has a stacked offense. That will be a good test for our defense. I think our defense is the strength of our team, so the game should be interesting. Back when we won the SB against the Rams, the Rams had the highest scoring offense that year, yet we held them to only 3 points. That tells me that a great defense will overcome any offense. So, we'll see how good our defense actually is. If it holds up, we may actually win a game we're supposed to lose.
So, if you're a betting man, take the Under and take the points.
PS. The best time to bet on any game or games is the first week. That's because nobody knows anything about the teams yet. So, the bookies are guessing just like everyone else.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 5, 2023 9:26:04 GMT -5
Last years Eagles very good offense and defense, offense should still be good even though teams have a year of tape. It's the Eagles defense with so many new players versus Patriots offense. It's Patriots OL and what they can do. No surprise they added a blocking TE to 53 man roster, might be the most important move no one's talking about.
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Post by costpet on Sept 5, 2023 10:32:27 GMT -5
The thing that made Gronk so great was not only his catching ability but, he was a great blocker, too. That meant more than people realized at the time. That puts him in the HOF first ballot. Watching him throw off tacklers like so many Munchkins was such a thrill. Someone to tell your grandkids about.
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 5, 2023 11:43:34 GMT -5
Read that Philly has a stacked offense. That will be a good test for our defense. I think our defense is the strength of our team, so the game should be interesting. Back when we won the SB against the Rams, the Rams had the highest scoring offense that year, yet we held them to only 3 points. That tells me that a great defense will overcome any offense. So, we'll see how good our defense actually is. If it holds up, we may actually win a game we're supposed to lose. So, if you're a betting man, take the Under and take the points. PS. The best time to bet on any game or games is the first week. That's because nobody knows anything about the teams yet. So, the bookies are guessing just like everyone else. Refs put their flags away in the SB (for the most part) so you can play more physical on defense, which is a Belichick specialty. Also, i don’t care how many points they scored during the regular season, the QB was still Goff and Bill always owns non-mobile QBs of his ability level. Also x2…. There’s a huge difference between being one if the best defenses in an offensive league and a GREAT defense. A lot needs to happen for this to actually be a GREAT defense even if it’s expected to be one of the better ones in the league. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 5, 2023 12:02:45 GMT -5
I think Mapu is gonna be huge in helping them against mobile QB’s
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 5, 2023 12:30:50 GMT -5
You just need to define what an elite defense is in today's NFL, it's not Baltimore with Ray Lewis and Dilfer at QB. It's about dominating weak teams and slowing down great teams. 49ers last year #1 in points and yards, they didn't dominate elite QBs and offenses.
Offense and special teams also play a big part in how good your D is, those killed our D last year! I think we have a top 10 D, heck maybe even top 5, it won't and can't carry you against good offensive teams though like Baltimores back in the day!
If this teams OL is good, they will surprise the NFL. If it's like last year, you'll be closer to a .500 team again.
They fixed special teams, we now have a punter that can change field position, last year was crazy bad. Our talent level on offense at skilled positions is best in years. I worry about FS on D, we do have many options though.
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 5, 2023 13:25:33 GMT -5
You just need to define what an elite defense is in today's NFL, it's not Baltimore with Ray Lewis and Dilfer at QB. It's about dominating weak teams and slowing down great teams. 49ers last year #1 in points and yards, they didn't dominate elite QBs and offenses. Offense and special teams also play a big part in how good your D is, those killed our D last year! I think we have a top 10 D, heck maybe even top 5, it won't and can't carry you against good offensive teams though like Baltimores back in the day! If this teams OL is good, they will surprise the NFL. If it's like last year, you'll be closer to a .500 team again. They fixed special teams, we now have a punter that can change field position, last year was crazy bad. Our talent level on offense at skilled positions is best in years. I worry about FS on D, we do have many options though. I think you just pretty much defined it and showed there isn’t necessarily an elite defense every year. An elite D can win you games against great offenses. That’s very very difficult in todays NFL. It’s more likely in the playoffs when you’re able to be more physical but even that’s tough. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 5, 2023 16:04:26 GMT -5
You just need to define what an elite defense is in today's NFL, it's not Baltimore with Ray Lewis and Dilfer at QB. It's about dominating weak teams and slowing down great teams. 49ers last year #1 in points and yards, they didn't dominate elite QBs and offenses. Offense and special teams also play a big part in how good your D is, those killed our D last year! I think we have a top 10 D, heck maybe even top 5, it won't and can't carry you against good offensive teams though like Baltimores back in the day! If this teams OL is good, they will surprise the NFL. If it's like last year, you'll be closer to a .500 team again. They fixed special teams, we now have a punter that can change field position, last year was crazy bad. Our talent level on offense at skilled positions is best in years. I worry about FS on D, we do have many options though. I think you just pretty much defined it and showed there isn’t necessarily an elite defense every year. An elite D can win you games against great offenses. That’s very very difficult in todays NFL. It’s more likely in the playoffs when you’re able to be more physical but even that’s tough. Agree to disagree, by your standards what was the last elite defense? I feel you need to adjust as the game adjusts, I think the 49ers were an elite defense. Just like in NBA offense matters more in regular season, defense in playoffs. You seem to have the mindset of defenses before all the rule changes favoring offenses happened, those will never happen again. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 5, 2023 17:01:54 GMT -5
Jack Jones most charges dropped, 1 year probation with 48 hours community service. Stated Jones bought guns legally in Arizona. Better outcome than I was expecting.
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 6, 2023 6:18:21 GMT -5
I think you just pretty much defined it and showed there isn’t necessarily an elite defense every year. An elite D can win you games against great offenses. That’s very very difficult in todays NFL. It’s more likely in the playoffs when you’re able to be more physical but even that’s tough. Agree to disagree, by your standards what was the last elite defense? I feel you need to adjust as the game adjusts, I think the 49ers were an elite defense. Just like in NBA offense matters more in regular season, defense in playoffs. You seem to have the mindset of defenses before all the rule changes favoring offenses happened, those will never happen again. You don’t need to adjust unless you want to state unequivocally that defenses have no chance at shutting down an elite offense. It’s still possible, it’s just a lot harder to build that defense with the current rules and with teams ability to adjust and scout. It’s also harder with coordinator turnover etc. I’m not going to lower the standards though; we are talking about a defense that’s supposed to stop elite offenses. Last elite defenses? Idk, maybe the Seattle ones, they were post rule changes. I could certainly be missing one in there as I haven’t thought too hard about it. |
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Post by Montana Lemonious-Craig on Sept 6, 2023 10:57:50 GMT -5
Agree to disagree, by your standards what was the last elite defense? I feel you need to adjust as the game adjusts, I think the 49ers were an elite defense. Just like in NBA offense matters more in regular season, defense in playoffs. You seem to have the mindset of defenses before all the rule changes favoring offenses happened, those will never happen again. You don’t need to adjust unless you want to state unequivocally that defenses have no chance at shutting down an elite offense. It’s still possible, it’s just a lot harder to build that defense with the current rules and with teams ability to adjust and scout. It’s also harder with coordinator turnover etc. I’m not going to lower the standards though; we are talking about a defense that’s supposed to stop elite offenses. Last elite defenses? Idk, maybe the Seattle ones, they were post rule changes. I could certainly be missing one in there as I haven’t thought too hard about it. Denver in 2015 was elite |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 6, 2023 12:04:30 GMT -5
Agree to disagree, by your standards what was the last elite defense? I feel you need to adjust as the game adjusts, I think the 49ers were an elite defense. Just like in NBA offense matters more in regular season, defense in playoffs. You seem to have the mindset of defenses before all the rule changes favoring offenses happened, those will never happen again. You don’t need to adjust unless you want to state unequivocally that defenses have no chance at shutting down an elite offense. It’s still possible, it’s just a lot harder to build that defense with the current rules and with teams ability to adjust and scout. It’s also harder with coordinator turnover etc. I’m not going to lower the standards though; we are talking about a defense that’s supposed to stop elite offenses. Last elite defenses? Idk, maybe the Seattle ones, they were post rule changes. I could certainly be missing one in there as I haven’t thought too hard about it. Most people including myself are talking about teams within a current season, 49ers were an elite defense in 2023. You're talking about defensive teams like Seattle 2013, an all-time great D. There's just a big difference looking at current season and ranking offenses and defenses, compared to looking at the history of the game and ranking the best defenses of all time. I'll say it can't happen like with Seattle because a huge part of that D was an offense built around run first. Titans in Bradys last Patriots playoff game running to keep the ball away from him. Now a days elite offensives won't allow that, they can score quickly and in bunches. That 2013 Seattle D isn't shutting down a prime Chiefs offense, which means they won't be able to run as much, higher scoring games. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Sept 6, 2023 19:17:24 GMT -5
You don’t need to adjust unless you want to state unequivocally that defenses have no chance at shutting down an elite offense. It’s still possible, it’s just a lot harder to build that defense with the current rules and with teams ability to adjust and scout. It’s also harder with coordinator turnover etc. I’m not going to lower the standards though; we are talking about a defense that’s supposed to stop elite offenses. Last elite defenses? Idk, maybe the Seattle ones, they were post rule changes. I could certainly be missing one in there as I haven’t thought too hard about it. Most people including myself are talking about teams within a current season, 49ers were an elite defense in 2023. You're talking about defensive teams like Seattle 2013, an all-time great D. There's just a big difference looking at current season and ranking offenses and defenses, compared to looking at the history of the game and ranking the best defenses of all time. I'll say it can't happen like with Seattle because a huge part of that D was an offense built around run first. Titans in Bradys last Patriots playoff game running to keep the ball away from him. Now a days elite offensives won't allow that, they can score quickly and in bunches. That 2013 Seattle D isn't shutting down a prime Chiefs offense, which means they won't be able to run as much, higher scoring games. That’s fine but the post I referred to stated that a great defense will shut down a great offense. I disagree with that in todays NFL |
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 6, 2023 21:14:41 GMT -5
That’s fine but the post I referred to stated that a great defense will shut down a great offense. I disagree with that in todays NFL I think that a good defensive performance, like you have good players, the occasional elite player here and there and a good gameplan, can shut down 31 teams in any given game. There's no shutting down Mahomes though, but that's because he's probably the best passer ever. The problem with today's NFL is that it's hard for a defense to be UNIVERSALLY GOOD, there's always going to be a struggle when the matchups are poor. Still, I think a great defense can shut down a great offense outside of Kansas City. |
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Post by costpet on Sept 7, 2023 8:45:59 GMT -5
I wonder what the over/under is for Jones being sacked. Elite defensive line vs makeshift OL. I give it 6. Just hope he doesn't get hurt.
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Post by rasimon on Sept 7, 2023 10:50:30 GMT -5
I wonder what the over/under is for Jones being sacked. Elite defensive line vs makeshift OL. I give it 6. Just hope he doesn't get hurt. Ahh i just asked the same question in the other forum. I also have 6 |
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Post by rasimon on Sept 7, 2023 11:01:45 GMT -5
I wonder what the over/under is for Jones being sacked. Elite defensive line vs makeshift OL. I give it 6. Just hope he doesn't get hurt. Ahh i just predicted 6 in the other forum |
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 8, 2023 17:35:17 GMT -5
How long until Jerry, transfers ownership of the team to AI jerry?
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Post by Guidas on Nov 12, 2023 13:14:58 GMT -5
Nobody said that. In fact, if you're referring to me, I said overall they've been great and referred to Belichick as "prophetic". That said, the data you provided does tell a tale of two halves. 2012-2016 was amazing, especially considering that they managed to be one of the best teams at drafting while consistently having one of the last picks in each round. 2017-2021 paints a completely different picture where they were one of the worst teams at drafting according to this CAVOE metric. Some of this can be attributed to the fact that they were still picking toward the very last pick in each round (with the exception of 2021) but I doubt that's the full story. 2019 was particularly terrible not only because they drafted N'Keal Harry but because they chose not to draft Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Mercole Hardman, DK Metcalf, Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin, or even Hunter Renfroe. The data you provided quantifies most people's disappointment, by their measure it was the second worst draft of any team in 2019. It would be interesting to discuss what happened that may have caused the change in the two halves, I would assume that there were possibly some front office or coaching changes that may have cause the shift but it could be something else too. It would be significantly less interesting to read another sh*tpost about credibility. I have other thoughts about their drafting, mostly positive, but the context of the statements were the data you provided and it says what it says. Uh, guidas said a page back that Belichick’s draft record is so bad over the last 15 years that he should have that responsibility taken away from him. That’s what I’m replying to. And I stand by this. Although I on;y went back 10 years. Before that he had help. |
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Post by Guidas on Nov 12, 2023 13:19:45 GMT -5
I question the metrics used in this analysis. Before 10 or so years ago, they were finishing at the top of the league with their record, yet still hitting home runs with their late-in-the-round 1st-3rd picks. These included Rob Gronkowski, Devin McCourty, Julian Edelman, Chandler Jones, Dont’a Hightower (and we can even throw Aaron Hernandez in here if we just look at on-field performance). Even looking at the last few years, there seem to be more high round misses than hits. 2015 - Malcolm Brown 1st (solid if inconsistent); Jordan Richards 2nd 2016 - No 1st, 2nd Chandler Jones; Did better in the 3rd with Thuney, who is a star. 2017 - Traded pick for Brandon Cooks, who was traded at the end of the year for a 1st and 6th. That 1st turned into Sony Michel, who was gone in 2 years for a 5th and 6th round pick; 2nd round was Kony Ealy (released in training camp). 2018 - Isaiah Wynn (uneven role player) and Michel; Round 2 Duke Dawson (traded after 1 season never played a regular season snap). 2019 - 1st K'Neal Harry. 2nd B Joejuan Williams. 2020 - Trade 1st for 2nd round pick; 2nd Duggar and Uche - finally some solid picks. 2021 - 1st Mac Jones. Solid pick - could be a solid top 10 QB with competent Offensive Line and an actual offensive coordinator who works to his strength; 2nd Christian Barmore - solid player. Actually the homerun or at least stand-up triple in this draft may have been Stevenson in the 4th round. 2022 - 1st Cole Strange (roller coaster first year); 2nd Tyquan Thorton (5.5 yds a catch, 2 catches a game ave.). I don't have time to do a full draft analysis, but when you miss this often on your first and second rounders, you are missing on the "money" part of the draft. I credit Belichick with a lot of positives, but in the last several years, this area has been substandard. And what I referred to are high round misses, which are coin of the realm in the NFL. Bill's lost whatever touch he had here. |
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Post by dfwsox on Nov 12, 2023 13:39:09 GMT -5
Hard to watch. I hope we lose out, dont like that but we need more explosivve players on offense and oline.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 12, 2023 14:47:31 GMT -5
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 12, 2023 16:13:49 GMT -5
I could be wrong, but don't the Patriots have a drought of not having any pick on the 2nd contract? I thought I heard something about that. This last class was pretty good, but Bill's recent history has not been. He picked a bad time to go on draft drought. |
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Post by Guidas on Nov 12, 2023 16:28:07 GMT -5
Right, but isn't he hailed as among the best ever if not the best ever? |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 12, 2023 19:24:19 GMT -5
I could be wrong, but don't the Patriots have a drought of not having any pick on the 2nd contract? I thought I heard something about that. This last class was pretty good, but Bill's recent history has not been. He picked a bad time to go on draft drought. No, Wise, Bentley, etc. There might be one with first round picks given the ones taken away and traded away, not picks in general. |
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