2023 National Rankings (in season)

MLB looks significantly more up to date than BA. Examples, Wilkeman over Perales, Perales struggles and Gonzalez turning it up a notch is recent. Rafaela but also Yorke who's bat has been in a downturn monthly and his bat is his ticket. Meidroth's recent struggles. To me, the the Bleis drop is more a case of being passed and Hickey is not a top 10 prospect.

Bastardo over Drohan

We started out with a pretty wide range on Anderson and decided we wanted a longer look at him before moving him up--which we'd all be thrilled if he forces the issue on. Pre-draft rankings aside, his bonus number as a high schooler ended up with his putting him roughly about where Coffey would've stood last year (Coffey debuted at 20 in a not-as-deep system). That initial ranking is always tough.

These rankings really mean nothing, especially the BA and MLB. They really don't know. They read box scores they don't watch games. I think SP is obviously more in tune to Red Sox and more reliable.

Although, I will never understand how you rank a guy at a lower level higher than an upper level with somewhat similar success rates?

My projection, I would have Rafaela probably closer to my #1, maybe at least #2. Roman Anthony has been great the last month or so, but he is not facing the level of pitchers that Rafaela is, definitely is not at the same level as Rafaela on defense at this moment. Bleis, unfortunately is hurt, how could he possibly be ranked higher at this point?

Pitchers, I still would have Drohan as the top prospect right now. Yes, he has struggled in AAA, but so has everyone. I think it is a product of many things, including ABS and working on other pitches per the Red Sox. He is closest to the Big League level. Yes Perales and Gonzalez are good, future is bright, and their stuff looks good or great at times but they certainly haven't faced what Drohan has. I or nobody can tell you there stuff will play at AAA level. I mean Drohan absolutely dominated AA, has had 3 good years since being drafted, and now he isn't that good anymore?

All players go through ups and downs throughout a season (Mayer, Yorke, Drohan, Murphy, Walter, Gonzalez, Perales, etc..).

Sorry for rambling on guys, just my opinion, I just hope all these guys get up to the ultimate level and help this organization bring it home! I would love to shove it right back to the publications that say we don't have a strong farm system. All these kids bust their ass each and every day and we should appreciate that as much as some so called analysts beat them down and point out there deficiencies.

I mean, feel how you want, I certainly prefer the SP rankings to any national outlet for the level of familiarity as well, but the bolded part is absolutely not true.

On Rafaela, yup.

I agree with the premise. But for the objective application of a formula to the subjective decision of how many guys are rankable (I think it's every 35+ and up?), he needs to get it right. If he's missing guys (or alternatively, too high on a bunch of guys), it's going to throw things off.

Or consider this. They value a 50 bat at $28m. A 45 is $6m. A $22m swing that, for example, could drop the Red Sox from fourth (weren't they third last week?) to ninth. One player on a pretty so distinction, IMO, on which educated people could disagree.

Again, a fun snapshot exercise. I'm not saying it's useless!!! But the methodology means am objective ranking of a single player changes things a TON, as would the aggregate ranking of like, multiple 40+ guys ($4m each).

It's 7 and they're all 57 and lower.

BA writers must be on Cashman’s payroll or something 😂 But seriously, what’s so special about Spencer Jones to earn him the 86th ranking? Dude is 22 yo corner outfielder who’s striking out at 30% in High A and don’t even get me started on Austin Wells off whom Rafaela broke a Sea Dogs record of stolen bases in 1 game IIRC.
MFY prospects will always get overrated for some reasons I ignore.

I think the best way to think about is that Fangraphs’s method is probably the best at giving you a sense of how much value there is in the farm system to trade because of its emphasis on depth and how many rankable prospects a system has, but the inherent uncertainties in player development and the rigidity of the valuation system mean it will never be especially precise. It’s on we the readers to keep that in mind when we analyze these things.

I admittedly not super locked into the national prospect scene but how can the Royals possibly not have a single guy in the MLB top 100? That’s pretty unfortunate. At least Witt is exciting.

Had this exact same thought the other day and did a deep dive comparison of the two

Hickey has better numbers across the board than Wells at every stop of the minors so far, but Wells is running a low 20s% K rate and Hickeys is closer to 27%. Also Hickey can’t touch lefties and Wells has reverse splits.

Would imagine that explains the gap in their prospect valuation but still think Wells in the top 100 is insane