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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 14, 2023 10:30:11 GMT -5
Didn't they have Teel ranked ahead of half those guys a week ago?
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Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Jul 14, 2023 10:30:23 GMT -5
They have. 4. Crews 6. Skenes 11. Langford 19. Jenkins 22. Clark 53. Dollander 54. Meyer 73. Lowder 85. Wilson 89. Troy 95. Shaw Teel was their 10th rated draft prospect pre-draft, but apparently is now at least 12th from the same group. |
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 14, 2023 10:31:18 GMT -5
They have. 4. Crews 6. Skenes 11. Langford 19. Jenkins 22. Clark 53. Dollander 54. Meyer 73. Lowder 85. Wilson 89. Troy 95. Shaw Going into the draft, BA had Veel ranked 10th on their draft prospect list, ahead of Shaw and Troy who come in at the back end of the top 100. Did they re-adjust since the draft? Is that why Veel isn’t on there? Glass half full says that he’s just outside the top 100 which is nice. |
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 14, 2023 10:41:27 GMT -5
That seems really strange on Teel if he was rated above some guys from the draft that are now in top 100 but he's not.
Doesn't mean much if anything since he's presumably somewhere in the 101-110 range and he's too far away from the majors for it to effect the draft pick stuff.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 14, 2023 11:52:14 GMT -5
I would guess he's just outside the top 100
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 14, 2023 11:55:14 GMT -5
BA Rankings today with the refresh: 8. Marcelo Mayer Tools: Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 40 | Field: 60 | Arm: 60 Skinny: Mayer was one of the top prosects in the 2021 draft and has lived up to his billing so far as a professional. He’s got a well-rounded skill set that helped him crush the competition at High-A and earn his first promotion to Double-A as a 20-year-old. 35. Roman Anthony Tools: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Field: 50 | Arm: 50 Skinny: One of the top breakout prospects in Low-A this season, Anthony has taken flight since seeing a promotion to High-A Greenville. His excellent bat-to-ball skills and discerning eye pair nicely with his developing plus power. Anthony has the ability to develop into a well-rounded offensive player who can handle center field defensively. 88. Miguel Bleis Tools: Hit: 40 | Power: 60 | Run: 60 | Field: 60 | Arm: 60 Skinny: Bleis had season-ending shoulder surgery to repair a separated shoulder in June. He showed some of the loudest tools in the low minors when he was on the field, but he still needs to make big strides as a hitter. So BA drops a 60 hit and 60 field on Mayer, while Fangraphs gives him a 45 hit and 40 field. That seems like the difference between an all-star SS and a utility infielder lol. Prospect evaluation is fun huh? Given the wild spread on these rankings, prospect evaluation could use what statisticians call a meta-analysis. From Wikipedia: ...except that these are not scientific studies! Caveat emptor... |
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 14, 2023 12:03:05 GMT -5
Won’t lie and maybe it will sound outlandish, but it could be time to start thinking that Anthony is our own potential George Springer but potentially with higher contact rates
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 14, 2023 12:52:39 GMT -5
So BA drops a 60 hit and 60 field on Mayer, while Fangraphs gives him a 45 hit and 40 field. That seems like the difference between an all-star SS and a utility infielder lol. Prospect evaluation is fun huh? Given the wild spread on these rankings, prospect evaluation could use what statisticians call a meta-analysis. From Wikipedia: ...except that these are not scientific studies! Caveat emptor... Meta-analysis would be more likely to be the framework when working with analyses that use different data - in laboratory sciences for instance, the data is generated by the lab and each study is using different data therefore. I tend to like to think about reading multiple prospect evals, which arguably use the same data (it's not like Fangraphs has its own league which it only has the numbers for, and then BA has its own league with its own numbers, etc.) as an example of boosting if we're using statistical language: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boosting_%28machine_learning%29 |
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Post by lostinnewjersey on Jul 14, 2023 13:22:01 GMT -5
That seems really strange on Teel if he was rated above some guys from the draft that are now in top 100 but he's not. Doesn't mean much if anything since he's presumably somewhere in the 101-110 range and he's too far away from the majors for it to effect the draft pick stuff. Could they have been influenced by the fact that he dropped to 14 in the draft? Could they have inside info as to why team after team passed on him? |
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Post by nomar on Jul 14, 2023 13:46:12 GMT -5
They have. 4. Crews 6. Skenes 11. Langford 19. Jenkins 22. Clark 53. Dollander 54. Meyer 73. Lowder 85. Wilson 89. Troy 95. Shaw Going into the draft, BA had Veel ranked 10th on their draft prospect list, ahead of Shaw and Troy who come in at the back end of the top 100. Did they re-adjust since the draft? Is that why Veel isn’t on there? Glass half full says that he’s just outside the top 100 which is nice. Maybe an unpopular opinion but I think they’re all too high (maybe besides Crews but I doubt he will be THAT good from the jump) and nobody after Clark deserves to be top 100. Every year draftees start too high and totally underperform |
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 14, 2023 14:17:55 GMT -5
Going into the draft, BA had Veel ranked 10th on their draft prospect list, ahead of Shaw and Troy who come in at the back end of the top 100. Did they re-adjust since the draft? Is that why Veel isn’t on there? Glass half full says that he’s just outside the top 100 which is nice. Maybe an unpopular opinion but I think they’re all too high (maybe besides Crews but I doubt he will be THAT good from the jump) and nobody after Clark deserves to be top 100. Every year draftees start too high and totally underperform I agree, Crewes, Skenes and Langford sure I get they did awesome in college against good competition and all look the part. Everyone else I have a hard time saying they deserve to be in the top 100 but I'm also no scout so what do I know. |
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Post by Guidas on Jul 14, 2023 16:56:55 GMT -5
They have. 4. Crews 6. Skenes 11. Langford 19. Jenkins 22. Clark 53. Dollander 54. Meyer 73. Lowder 85. Wilson 89. Troy 95. Shaw I know the talent in Crews, Skenes, Langford, Jenkins and Clark offers a ton of projection, but it's always bothered me that guys who've not seen High A pitching or hitters are suddenly in the top 25. Skenes may be the only guy on that list that sees MLB by April 2025 and a lot can go wrong with him or the rest. Some recent examples, Druw Jones and Elijah Green who were top 20 for many are struggling in the first full year of pro ball. I'm sure there are dozens of other examples over the last several years but those two come to mind. |
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Post by Guidas on Jul 14, 2023 17:11:36 GMT -5
Won’t lie and maybe it will sound outlandish, but it could be time to start thinking that Anthony is our own potential George Springer but potentially with higher contact rates I would love this but it's just been a few months and he's not seen advanced pitching yet. Springer was D-1 college player who'd see the equivalent to Rookie Ball and, in the tournament maybe a little Low A-level pitching before he was drafted. Anthony is doing well - good stuff so far, but a long way to get there. |
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jul 14, 2023 17:20:13 GMT -5
From BA explaining their risers: |
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Post by kingstephanos on Jul 14, 2023 20:00:03 GMT -5
The Midseason Top 101 (according to Prospects Live) 5. MARCELO MAYER - SS - BOSTON RED SOX Mayer was 14th on our pre-season Top 100 list. He was one of the top players in High-A this year in his 35-game sample before getting the bump up to Double-A. He was controlling the zone and hitting the ball with authority all over the diamond. There’s also some seriously underrated power to his pull-side. Mayer hits some absolutely mammoth homers and this is an indication to me that there’s plus power waiting to be drawn out with more refinement. The book on Mayer for us in the pre-season was that he would likely develop into a hit-over-power shortstop, but I think there might be a pair of future plus offensive tools here. He’s still maturing physically and, while the power is mostly gap-to-gap now, that will change as he adds strength. He does have some issues with contact on breaking balls, especially those lower in the zone, but, again, he’s still young. 73. ROMAN ANTHONY - OF - BOSTON RED SOX 76. NICK YORKE - 2B - BOSTON RED SOX www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2023/7/14/92recir8l22l56bq7l6bi6s2j3n03e |
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 15, 2023 1:10:56 GMT -5
They have. 4. Crews 6. Skenes 11. Langford 19. Jenkins 22. Clark 53. Dollander 54. Meyer 73. Lowder 85. Wilson 89. Troy 95. Shaw So this draft had over 10% of the top 100 in it. That seems impossible imo but what do I know. |
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Post by incandenza on Jul 15, 2023 9:27:34 GMT -5
They have. 4. Crews 6. Skenes 11. Langford 19. Jenkins 22. Clark 53. Dollander 54. Meyer 73. Lowder 85. Wilson 89. Troy 95. Shaw So this draft had over 10% of the top 100 in it. That seems impossible imo but what do I know. Seems about right to me. The fangraphs top 100 right has, e.g., 12 guys from the 2019 draft, 17 from the 2020 draft, 23 from the 2021 draft, 7 from the 2022 draft. 2023 draft starts toward the low end, but that probably makes sense before guys start to perform at the professional level. |
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 15, 2023 9:57:05 GMT -5
So this draft had over 10% of the top 100 in it. That seems impossible imo but what do I know. Seems about right to me. The fangraphs top 100 right has, e.g., 12 guys from the 2019 draft, 17 from the 2020 draft, 23 from the 2021 draft, 7 from the 2022 draft. 2023 draft starts toward the low end, but that probably makes sense before guys start to perform at the professional level. Thanks for the info it just doesn’t seem possible with the thousands and thousands of players in the minors is more about what i was referring to. 21 Draft was stacked! |
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 15, 2023 10:15:41 GMT -5
pappyman99 Avatar
Jul 14, 2023 13:03:05 GMT -4 pappyman99 said:
Won’t lie and maybe it will sound outlandish, but it could be time to start thinking that Anthony is our own potential George Springer but potentially with higher contact rates
Roman Anthony reminds me a lot of Cody Bellinger
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 15, 2023 17:40:14 GMT -5
They have. 4. Crews 6. Skenes 11. Langford 19. Jenkins 22. Clark 53. Dollander 54. Meyer 73. Lowder 85. Wilson 89. Troy 95. Shaw So this draft had over 10% of the top 100 in it. That seems impossible imo but what do I know. Those three players were generally regarded as being that good compared to the top of past drafts. Skenes was considered the best amateur pitching prospect since Strasburg for example. |
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Post by insanesoxfan on Jul 15, 2023 18:21:11 GMT -5
So this draft had over 10% of the top 100 in it. That seems impossible imo but what do I know. Those three players were generally regarded as being that good compared to the top of past drafts. Skenes was considered the best amateur pitching prospect since Strasburg for example. I listened to many podcasts from national outlets like BA, Fangraphs, Pipeline, etc., (in addition to Chris & Ian of course) and almost all of the national journalists were regarding this year as one of the best drafts in recent memory on paper. The “Big 5” phrase was used all the time to describe the 5 guys that could’ve gone #1 overall in other weaker classes. I don’t know what Spencer Torkelson, for example, was ranked at right after going #1 overall in 2020, but I think the uniqueness of the “Big 5” is reflected in immediately having all of them in the top 22 prospects league-wide. |
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Post by capesox on Jul 15, 2023 19:35:05 GMT -5
Those three players were generally regarded as being that good compared to the top of past drafts. Skenes was considered the best amateur pitching prospect since Strasburg for example. I listened to many podcasts from national outlets like BA, Fangraphs, Pipeline, etc., (in addition to Chris & Ian of course) and almost all of the national journalists were regarding this year as one of the best drafts in recent memory on paper. The “Big 5” phrase was used all the time to describe the 5 guys that could’ve gone #1 overall in other weaker classes. I don’t know what Spencer Torkelson, for example, was ranked at right after going #1 overall in 2020, but I think the uniqueness of the “Big 5” is reflected in immediately having all of them in the top 22 prospects league-wide. I agree with this. Just in the broadcast of the draft, I think it was Kiley McDaniel said ( someone did, not 100 percent sure who it was) this draft was the best since 2005. Lots of praise for the top 5, and a bunch of talented players after that. I think the national sites do over project FYPD players some years, but this year I think its warranted. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 15, 2023 19:55:09 GMT -5
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 15, 2023 20:20:35 GMT -5
should’ve just inherited Elly’s ranking imo |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 18, 2023 15:33:51 GMT -5
I believe Elly De La Cruz is like 5 PAs from graduating from prospect status. So essentially all three guys should be bumped up one spot to 7, 34, and 87. Elly graduated. Mayer moved up to 7. Anthony to 33 (up two spots). Bleis to 87. |
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