SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2023 National Rankings (in season)
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 18, 2023 19:26:55 GMT -5
I believe Elly De La Cruz is like 5 PAs from graduating from prospect status. So essentially all three guys should be bumped up one spot to 7, 34, and 87. Elly graduated. Mayer moved up to 7. Anthony to 33 (up two spots). Bleis to 87. Fwiw Bobby Miller is one non-atrocity start from graduating. |
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Jul 19, 2023 9:00:00 GMT -5
That seems really strange on Teel if he was rated above some guys from the draft that are now in top 100 but he's not. Doesn't mean much if anything since he's presumably somewhere in the 101-110 range and he's too far away from the majors for it to effect the draft pick stuff. Could they have been influenced by the fact that he dropped to 14 in the draft? Could they have inside info as to why team after team passed on him? Does seem off. Nothing happened with these players which objectively should affect their rank. The only thing that occurred is the draft (and if you’re going use your pre draft grades to evaluate the draft “performance” of teams, then where a player is drafted shouldn’t affect that ranking—eg you shouldn’t say Clark is a more talented player than Langford and the Tigers chose the better player simply because the Tigers did make that move). If there are comments by other teams about Teel post-draft are those comments really reliable? What GM is going to say, “Teel is a better player than my selection, I just messed up yesterday when I passed on him….”? I guess sliding of a player may indicate that certain teams did not value the player as highly as BA did, but there might be other reasons for that. BA probably doesn’t have enough objective evidence to alter their ratings at the moment. |
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jul 19, 2023 9:29:40 GMT -5
Taking a step back... shouldn't the draft itself influence the way they rank the draftees? Like, there are obviously considerations with bonus demands and things like that. But the difference between the 10th and 12th prospect in their pre-draft rankings was probably negligible, enough that getting evidence that several teams preferred one would change the order. As an immediate example, we have Valdez 10th and Bonaci 12th in our organization rankings. If we got evidence that a half-dozen teams preferred Bonaci when they had the choice, I'd probably swap them without really altering particularly about how I feel about either player. There just tend to be groupings of players that are separated so marginally that any nudge for one will swap them.
|
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2023 9:38:03 GMT -5
Taking a step back... shouldn't the draft itself influence the way they rank the draftees? Like, there are obviously considerations with bonus demands and things like that. But the difference between the 10th and 12th prospect in their pre-draft rankings was probably negligible, enough that getting evidence that several teams preferred one would change the order. As an immediate example, we have Valdez 10th and Bonaci 12th in our organization rankings. If we got evidence that a half-dozen teams preferred Bonaci when they had the choice, I'd probably swap them without really altering particularly about how I feel about either player. There just tend to be groupings of players that are separated so marginally that any nudge for one will swap them. I think, in the absence of having MiLB performance, this is a pretty fair way of handling it. I don't think it's a coincidence that all of those players were drafted ahead of Teel. The only guys that were picked ahead of Teel that didn't crack the list were Schanuel (fairly obvious) and Mitchell (sure). I think Teel would probably be in their top 105 if they extended it to that. I'm not super worried about it, if he hits in Salem and looks good behind the plate he'll be on the list. |
|
|
|
Post by melvinhoggs on Jul 21, 2023 10:24:19 GMT -5
Some interesting rankings from Keith Law's Athletic post today on the top 60 prospects in baseball.
Perhaps some unsurprising: Mayer (3) up very high, Anthony (45) making a huge leap after being unranked, Rafaela (48) just behind him.
Worth noting: he has Teel at 50, which is certainly different than some other publications that didn't even have him on the top 100. Yorke and Bleis not listed, but Bonaci snuck into the honorable mentions.
|
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 21, 2023 10:25:55 GMT -5
Some interesting rankings from Keith Law's Athletic post today on the top 60 prospects in baseball. Perhaps some unsurprising: Mayer (3) up very high, Anthony (45) making a huge leap after being unranked, Rafaela (48) just behind him. Worth noting: he has Teel at 50, which is certainly different than some other publications that didn't even have him on the top 100. Yorke and Bleis not listed, but Bonaci snuck into the honorable mentions. He's loved Teel for a long time, so that's not super shocking. Bonaci is certainly a surprise. |
|
|
|
Post by huskies15 on Jul 21, 2023 10:52:16 GMT -5
In the pre-amble he did mention that these rankings have a lot more recency bias than his pre-season rankings do. Regardless, fun to see 4 guys in top 50. Been a long time since that was the case on any list.
|
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Jul 21, 2023 11:35:53 GMT -5
Taking a step back... shouldn't the draft itself influence the way they rank the draftees? Like, there are obviously considerations with bonus demands and things like that. But the difference between the 10th and 12th prospect in their pre-draft rankings was probably negligible, enough that getting evidence that several teams preferred one would change the order. As an immediate example, we have Valdez 10th and Bonaci 12th in our organization rankings. If we got evidence that a half-dozen teams preferred Bonaci when they had the choice, I'd probably swap them without really altering particularly about how I feel about either player. There just tend to be groupings of players that are separated so marginally that any nudge for one will swap them. If the draft order influences how they rank they draftees, then they really cannot claim their predraft and post draft analysis is worth a ton. Baseball America shouldn’t say on the day of the draft: we think Teel was a great draft pick at 14 because he was after five guys we had ranked lower, and we think that we think X player was a bad draft pick because five players still on the board are better than him. Then two days later say player X is tenth best player in the draft class because he was taken 10th and Teel is the 14th best player because he was taken 14th. If Teel is the 14th best player in the draft, then he is not a steal and player X was not a reach at ten. If they’re just going to default to the draft order in judging prospects, which anyone can view for free, then there is no point in reading their analysis. All that being said, we as fans can take draft order into account, with everything else we read, but Baseball America with changing their ranking purely on the draft order is telling me that they don’t have confidence in their own pre-draft analysis. |
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jul 21, 2023 11:38:55 GMT -5
If you're going to reduce their analysis to their pre-draft rankings and criticize them for considering additional information then you're right, there is no point in reading it.
|
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 21, 2023 12:31:37 GMT -5
Should the site base their rankings on their own direct and indirect observations and analysis OR should they operate as a meta-site for all of the observations, analysis and rankings that exist?
All ranking sites seem to do a bit of each, but unless a meta-site is the intention, the second method is a slippery slope of handing over judgement to others.
I'm sure that every team has their own vastly different ranking systems as it's an inexact science of projecting how someone will perform against far more difficult competition within a period of 4-10 years in the future. And in terms of the public rankers, entertainment may be more important than accuracy.
|
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 21, 2023 12:33:42 GMT -5
Most outlets use intel from teams to help shape their rankings anyway, so I don’t see this as being much different than a scout raving about a prospect in Instructs or something. It’s a data point, and a valuable one.
|
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jul 21, 2023 15:53:46 GMT -5
Some interesting rankings from Keith Law's Athletic post today on the top 60 prospects in baseball. Perhaps some unsurprising: Mayer (3) up very high, Anthony (45) making a huge leap after being unranked, Rafaela (48) just behind him. Worth noting: he has Teel at 50, which is certainly different than some other publications that didn't even have him on the top 100. Yorke and Bleis not listed, but Bonaci snuck into the honorable mentions. He's loved Teel for a long time, so that's not super shocking. Bonaci is certainly a surprise. He talked about Bleis in a podcast today from the Athletic. Basically a lost year and other guys jumped over him. |
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jul 21, 2023 15:57:40 GMT -5
Some interesting rankings from Keith Law's Athletic post today on the top 60 prospects in baseball. Perhaps some unsurprising: Mayer (3) up very high, Anthony (45) making a huge leap after being unranked, Rafaela (48) just behind him. Worth noting: he has Teel at 50, which is certainly different than some other publications that didn't even have him on the top 100. Yorke and Bleis not listed, but Bonaci snuck into the honorable mentions. Excerpt on Anthony below (spoiler alert, Law really likes him). Personally, I can't wait until the kid gets to AA and then AAA to see how he does against more sophisticated pitching. He could be above average or better if he does to that what he's doing in A ball. The Red Sox took Anthony in the second round in 2022 out of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Florida, moving him to Low A to start 2023. He hit just .220/.376/.317 at that level, but the Red Sox were so pleased with his batted-ball data that they promoted him to High A, where he’s hitting .338/.484/.770 in 21 games with 8 homers already, so I’m going to say that promotion was probably a good call. Anthony has a great baseball body and a powerful swing that, as you might have inferred, produces strong exit velocities even though he hasn’t filled out physically yet, and he’s shown much better pitch recognition and zone awareness in pro ball than it seemed like he had in showcases and tournaments as an amateur. I wrote in January that “if he’s that much more advanced a hitter than the industry thought, the Red Sox got a steal.” Guess what? The Red Sox got a steal. |
|
|
|
Post by adamgregory81 on Jul 21, 2023 21:01:49 GMT -5
Curious which, if any, of these national rankings affect the rankings here at soxprospects.
It’s clear to me that the site follows the Red Sox system much closer than the (K) Law, for example, but I also imagine it’s difficult to ignore a consensus among superlative national writers.
Said differently, should Anthony be #2? Is the site too low on Bonacci? Is Blaze nothing more than good for marketing?
I get that all “rankings” are subjective, and ultimately, a relative shot in the dark (Vazquez was consistently ranked well below Swihart, for example; Mookie was not highly regarded at all up until his unmistakeable rise; and, what happened to Lars Anderson?), but does the voice of a guy like Keith Law change the view of the group who publishes the rankings on this site?
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 21, 2023 21:31:11 GMT -5
Curious which, if any, of these national rankings affect the rankings here at soxprospects. It’s clear to me that the site follows the Red Sox system much closer than the (K) Law, for example, but I also imagine it’s difficult to ignore a consensus among superlative national writers. Said differently, should Anthony be #2? Is the site too low on Bonacci? Is Blaze nothing more than good for marketing? I get that all “rankings” are subjective, and ultimately, a relative shot in the dark (Vazquez was consistently ranked well below Swihart, for example; Mookie was not highly regarded at all up until his unmistakeable rise; and, what happened to Lars Anderson?), but does the voice of a guy like Keith Law change the view of the group who publishes the rankings on this site? Not at all, at least in the sense that we don't base where we rank someone on where someone else does. Now, would someone I respect's opinion as written in their writeup of the system potentially get me to take another look at a guy? Of course. Hell, Jim said that he does that with our stuff when he was on the pod this week. But seeing even, say, Jim or Alex rank a guy somewhere doesn't factor in - again, for the sole reason of them doing that - to how I rank them. I'm sure it's the same for all 4 of us. And fwiw, I don't think I'm saying anything surprising when I say we're almost certainly going to have Anthony #2 next month. Re-ranking monthly means 2 things for us in how we approach the updates: (1) we attempt, as much as possible, to avoid yo-yoing guys up and down, because I think that would be terrible both in terms of how legitimate a given ranking is and how it would look optically, but at the same time, (2) it gives us the luxury of slowly moving a guy up or down over time and trying on how they look in a spot. I think about a week after the July rankings went up we all kind of wished we were a bit more aggressive with Anthony, but I know I'm OK with the process that'll get him there. |
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,020
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2023 22:44:00 GMT -5
Law with 4 Sox prospects in his top 50 and another in his top 80.
3. Mayer 45. Anthony 48. Rafaela 50. Teele 61-80 Bonacu (hononrable mentions to his top 50)
|
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 23, 2023 0:09:17 GMT -5
Unless I missed someone, we have 7 prospects named on somebody or other's top 100.
Mayer
Anthony
Rafaela
Yorke
Bleis
Teel
Bonaci
None are pitchers but I'm guessing Perales will be there soon enough.
|
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Jul 23, 2023 9:44:29 GMT -5
Unless I missed someone, we have 7 prospects named on somebody or other's top 100. Mayer Anthony Rafaela Yorke Bleis Teel Bonaci None are pitchers but I'm guessing Perales will be there soon enough. Not to mention recently graduated Casas Bello Duran These 3 don’t look to bad |
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 23, 2023 10:13:05 GMT -5
He's loved Teel for a long time, so that's not super shocking. Bonaci is certainly a surprise. He talked about Bleis in a podcast today from the Athletic. Basically a lost year and other guys jumped over him. Fair or not he's lost a year of development and should certainly drop if for no other reason than that and in addition several players in our system ranked near him have had good to great years. |
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Jul 23, 2023 10:22:39 GMT -5
Curious which, if any, of these national rankings affect the rankings here at soxprospects. It’s clear to me that the site follows the Red Sox system much closer than the (K) Law, for example, but I also imagine it’s difficult to ignore a consensus among superlative national writers. Said differently, should Anthony be #2? Is the site too low on Bonacci? Is Blaze nothing more than good for marketing? I get that all “rankings” are subjective, and ultimately, a relative shot in the dark (Vazquez was consistently ranked well below Swihart, for example; Mookie was not highly regarded at all up until his unmistakeable rise; and, what happened to Lars Anderson?), but does the voice of a guy like Keith Law change the view of the group who publishes the rankings on this site? Not at all, at least in the sense that we don't base where we rank someone on where someone else does. Now, would someone I respect's opinion as written in their writeup of the system potentially get me to take another look at a guy? Of course. Hell, Jim said that he does that with our stuff when he was on the pod this week. But seeing even, say, Jim or Alex rank a guy somewhere doesn't factor in - again, for the sole reason of them doing that - to how I rank them. I'm sure it's the same for all 4 of us. And fwiw, I don't think I'm saying anything surprising when I say we're almost certainly going to have Anthony #2 next month. Re-ranking monthly means 2 things for us in how we approach the updates: (1) we attempt, as much as possible, to avoid yo-yoing guys up and down, because I think that would be terrible both in terms of how legitimate a given ranking is and how it would look optically, but at the same time, (2) it gives us the luxury of slowly moving a guy up or down over time and trying on how they look in a spot. I think about a week after the July rankings went up we all kind of wished we were a bit more aggressive with Anthony, but I know I'm OK with the process that'll get him there. Trust the process, if it works the majority of the time. Develop a system and observe how it does. Think of ways to tweak the system for minor improvements. I think yo-yoing players would take alot of credence away from the rankings and you guys overall do a great job with the rankings. Updating it every month during the season seams like a lot of work though. If you did it at the thirds or even quarter bench marks of the season as checkpoints I think it would still be very effective and less work for you as well. Fodder for thought. |
|
briam
Veteran
Posts: 1,189
|
Post by briam on Jul 26, 2023 10:01:21 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by kingstephanos on Jul 26, 2023 10:08:28 GMT -5
Here is the Fangraphs Top Ten Rk Org 1 PIT 2 TEX 3 CHC 4 TBR 5 BOS 6 WSN 7 LAD 8 BAL 9 ARI 10 SFG |
|
|
|
Post by kingstephanos on Jul 26, 2023 10:13:19 GMT -5
Here is the Fangraphs Top Ten Rk Org 1 PIT 2 TEX 3 CHC 4 TBR 5 BOS 6 WSN 7 LAD 8 BAL 9 ARI 10 SFG Boston has: Value # 70 0 65 0 60 0 55 2 50 2 45+ 2 45 6 40+ 5 40 17 35+ 16 |
|
|
|
Post by vokuhila on Jul 26, 2023 10:37:00 GMT -5
RedSox farm ranking history on fangraphs
Rk Org Value Ct Average
2019
30 BOS $56M 26 $2.2M
30 BOS $96M 33 $2.9M
2020
29 BOS $114M 36 $3.2M
23 BOS $152M 44 $3.4M
2021
18 BOS $204M 51 $4.0M
9 BOS $242M 53 $4.6M
2022
9 BOS $259M 52 $5.0M
9 BOS $245M 61 $4.0M
2023
5 BOS $282M 46 $6.1M
5 BOS $245M 50 $4.9M
The Casas graduation (valued at $46M) dropped the sox to fifth...they would have been second...pretty whack.
I assume top-5 to top-10 farm system was the goal. Should be interesting so see where we go from here.
|
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Jul 26, 2023 13:50:08 GMT -5
RedSox farm ranking history on fangraphs Rk Org Value Ct Average 2019 30 BOS $56M 26 $2.2M 30 BOS $96M 33 $2.9M 2020 29 BOS $114M 36 $3.2M 23 BOS $152M 44 $3.4M 2021 18 BOS $204M 51 $4.0M 9 BOS $242M 53 $4.6M 2022 9 BOS $259M 52 $5.0M 9 BOS $245M 61 $4.0M 2023 5 BOS $282M 46 $6.1M 5 BOS $245M 50 $4.9M The Casas graduation (valued at $46M) dropped the sox to fifth...they would have been second...pretty whack. I assume top-5 to top-10 farm system was the goal. Should be interesting so see where we go from here. With none of the top 10 graduating by the end of this year (and probably still none by mid-season 2024), up and up. |
|
|
