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4/10-4/13 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Apr 14, 2023 9:33:33 GMT -5
I'm saying that blank check Theo wasn't the savant people remember him as. The Type A and Type B draft comp was Theo's best friend, not to mention the uncapped drafts. You might be right. However, I’m remembering the guy that provided a consistent pipeline of MLB talent through the draft: Papelbon, Ellsbury, Masterson, Pedroia, Rizzo, Lowrie, Bard, Reddick etc…. When you develop that kind of cost-controlled talent to put around the higher-end free agents, you have a sustainable winner. Now? We spend 3-4 years waiting for the next Michael Chavis to make their way through the system only to realize that they stink when they arrive. You literally just reiterated my point. Theo and the Sox were crushing the Type A/B free agent loophole and having absurd amounts of 1st and 2nd round picks each season. That's exactly how all those guys you named were acquired. Not sure what Chavis has to do with this current regime either
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Post by briam on Apr 14, 2023 10:09:00 GMT -5
You might be right. However, I’m remembering the guy that provided a consistent pipeline of MLB talent through the draft: Papelbon, Ellsbury, Masterson, Pedroia, Rizzo, Lowrie, Bard, Reddick etc…. When you develop that kind of cost-controlled talent to put around the higher-end free agents, you have a sustainable winner. Now? We spend 3-4 years waiting for the next Michael Chavis to make their way through the system only to realize that they stink when they arrive. You literally just reiterated my point. Theo and the Sox were crushing the Type A/B free agent loophole and having absurd amounts of 1st and 2nd round picks each season. That's exactly how all those guys you named were acquired. Not sure what Chavis has to do with this current regime either Aren’t good GMs supposed to exploit the CBA anyway possible? Whose to say he wouldn’t be able to in the current landscape, it would look different than it did 20 years ago but I don’t think you can just write him off because the CBA has changed.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Apr 14, 2023 10:14:23 GMT -5
You literally just reiterated my point. Theo and the Sox were crushing the Type A/B free agent loophole and having absurd amounts of 1st and 2nd round picks each season. That's exactly how all those guys you named were acquired. Not sure what Chavis has to do with this current regime either Aren’t good GMs supposed to exploit the CBA anyway possible? Whose to say he wouldn’t be able to in the current landscape, it would look different than it did 20 years ago but I don’t think you can just write him off because the CBA has changed. Of course, and that's what he did. I'm saying that cheat code is closed.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 14, 2023 10:16:01 GMT -5
You might be right. However, I’m remembering the guy that provided a consistent pipeline of MLB talent through the draft: Papelbon, Ellsbury, Masterson, Pedroia, Rizzo, Lowrie, Bard, Reddick etc…. When you develop that kind of cost-controlled talent to put around the higher-end free agents, you have a sustainable winner. Now? We spend 3-4 years waiting for the next Michael Chavis to make their way through the system only to realize that they stink when they arrive. You literally just reiterated my point. Theo and the Sox were crushing the Type A/B free agent loophole and having absurd amounts of 1st and 2nd round picks each season. That's exactly how all those guys you named were acquired. Not sure what Chavis has to do with this current regime either I think he's making the point that when Theo was GM there was better development in the farm system. Yes, we get that he would let free agents go and collect the compensation pick, stuff you can't do now, but just because you make picks don't mean they develop. Don't you find it odd that they haven't been able to develop one reliable starting pitcher since Theo's era? The bust rates appear to be higher in the system over the past several years. Either they're bad at picking players or bad at developing them once they're in the system. It used to be just the pitchers. Now their best hitting prospects of recent vintage are hitting the crossroads. Yes, Chavis was a little before Bloom's time, but Duran and Dalbec have been the best of what they had to offer, at least until hopefully Mayer and Bleis and perhaps Rafaela change that, but beyond Bello I'm losing hope that they actually have a guy capable of being a legit upper to mid rotation starter in their system. It's a lot to dream on Perales, Wikelman, and Drohan at this point.
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Post by yuchangclan on Apr 14, 2023 10:47:23 GMT -5
You might be right. However, I’m remembering the guy that provided a consistent pipeline of MLB talent through the draft: Papelbon, Ellsbury, Masterson, Pedroia, Rizzo, Lowrie, Bard, Reddick etc…. When you develop that kind of cost-controlled talent to put around the higher-end free agents, you have a sustainable winner. Now? We spend 3-4 years waiting for the next Michael Chavis to make their way through the system only to realize that they stink when they arrive. You literally just reiterated my point. Theo and the Sox were crushing the Type A/B free agent loophole and having absurd amounts of 1st and 2nd round picks each season. That's exactly how all those guys you named were acquired. Not sure what Chavis has to do with this current regime either I do see your point, but I don’t necessarily agree that more picks automatically equals success. Theo hit on a much higher percentage of his picks than anyone since. And not just fringe guys, either. I’m talking about all-stars and really solid major leaguers(did Theo sign Bogaerts and Vazquez too?). What has this system produced over the last several years? Anything that you are excited about? It’s been a massive dropoff that can’t simply be explained by “draft loopholes”. I used Chavis as an example of the typical prospect the Sox develop lately: much hyped, 3-4 years of wondering when he will arrive and then, ultimately, disappointment when we see the finished product. All they seem to develop recently are different versions of mediocrity and that has to change immediately for them to be relevant.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 14, 2023 11:10:05 GMT -5
You literally just reiterated my point. Theo and the Sox were crushing the Type A/B free agent loophole and having absurd amounts of 1st and 2nd round picks each season. That's exactly how all those guys you named were acquired. Not sure what Chavis has to do with this current regime either I do see your point, but I don’t necessarily agree that more picks automatically equals success. Theo hit on a much higher percentage of his picks than anyone since. And not just fringe guys, either. I’m talking about all-stars and really solid major leaguers(did Theo sign Bogaerts and Vazquez too?). What has this system produced over the last several years? Anything that you are excited about? It’s been a massive dropoff that can’t simply be explained by “draft loopholes”. I used Chavis as an example of the typical prospect the Sox develop lately: much hyped, 3-4 years of wondering when he will arrive and then, ultimately, disappointment when we see the finished product. All they seem to develop recently are different versions of mediocrity and that has to change immediately for them to be relevant. again though the draft was a completely different animal under Theo (the international market was as well) Teams like the sox and yankees could spend as much as they wanted on the draft as there was no hard cap like this year
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 14, 2023 11:15:36 GMT -5
I do see your point, but I don’t necessarily agree that more picks automatically equals success. Theo hit on a much higher percentage of his picks than anyone since. And not just fringe guys, either. I’m talking about all-stars and really solid major leaguers(did Theo sign Bogaerts and Vazquez too?). What has this system produced over the last several years? Anything that you are excited about? It’s been a massive dropoff that can’t simply be explained by “draft loopholes”. I used Chavis as an example of the typical prospect the Sox develop lately: much hyped, 3-4 years of wondering when he will arrive and then, ultimately, disappointment when we see the finished product. All they seem to develop recently are different versions of mediocrity and that has to change immediately for them to be relevant. again though the draft was a completely different animal under Theo (the international market was as well) Teams like the sox and yankees could spend as much as they wanted on the draft as there was no hard cap like this year True, yet the Dodgers and Yankees continue to win 90 plus games per year while keeping a farm system as good or better than the Sox. Go figure.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Apr 14, 2023 11:19:17 GMT -5
You literally just reiterated my point. Theo and the Sox were crushing the Type A/B free agent loophole and having absurd amounts of 1st and 2nd round picks each season. That's exactly how all those guys you named were acquired. Not sure what Chavis has to do with this current regime either I do see your point, but I don’t necessarily agree that more picks automatically equals success. Theo hit on a much higher percentage of his picks than anyone since. And not just fringe guys, either. I’m talking about all-stars and really solid major leaguers(did Theo sign Bogaerts and Vazquez too?). What has this system produced over the last several years? Anything that you are excited about? It’s been a massive dropoff that can’t simply be explained by “draft loopholes”. I used Chavis as an example of the typical prospect the Sox develop lately: much hyped, 3-4 years of wondering when he will arrive and then, ultimately, disappointment when we see the finished product. All they seem to develop recently are different versions of mediocrity and that has to change immediately for them to be relevant. More bites of the apple is my point. Did we expect any of Blooms draft picks to be contributing by early 2023? It's not like they were taking senior college relievers. Lester didn't break into the bigs until 4 years later.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 14, 2023 11:22:22 GMT -5
again though the draft was a completely different animal under Theo (the international market was as well) Teams like the sox and yankees could spend as much as they wanted on the draft as there was no hard cap like this year True, yet the Dodgers and Yankees continue to win 90 plus games per year while keeping a farm system as good or better than the Sox. Go figure. Those facts are directly related. The reason the Sox have not been winning lately is because they have had no production from their farm. That is why a lot of energy has been put into building it back up.
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Post by taiwansox on Apr 14, 2023 11:33:10 GMT -5
True, yet the Dodgers and Yankees continue to win 90 plus games per year while keeping a farm system as good or better than the Sox. Go figure. Those facts are directly related. The reason the Sox have not been winning lately is because they have had no production from their farm. That is why a lot of energy has been put into building it back up. Yeah our production starting with the 2012 draft has been atrocious. 2018 was awesome because almost every position player was homegrown except 1B and 2B. Now we have just Devers at full price and first base which isn’t great…that leaves us to live off of free agent scraps which really kills us
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 14, 2023 11:48:56 GMT -5
I do see your point, but I don’t necessarily agree that more picks automatically equals success. Theo hit on a much higher percentage of his picks than anyone since. And not just fringe guys, either. I’m talking about all-stars and really solid major leaguers(did Theo sign Bogaerts and Vazquez too?). What has this system produced over the last several years? Anything that you are excited about? It’s been a massive dropoff that can’t simply be explained by “draft loopholes”. I used Chavis as an example of the typical prospect the Sox develop lately: much hyped, 3-4 years of wondering when he will arrive and then, ultimately, disappointment when we see the finished product. All they seem to develop recently are different versions of mediocrity and that has to change immediately for them to be relevant. More bites of the apple is my point. Did we expect any of Blooms draft picks to be contributing by early 2023? It's not like they were taking senior college relievers. Lester didn't break into the bigs until 4 years later. That's true but it is worrisome to me that Law and others have stated that there's precious little pitching in the minors. Beyond Bello there is nobody that projects as a real candidate to be a contributing member of the rotation. They all carry heavy reliever risk. The best the Sox seem to have are the guys that can be a 5th starter or multi inning middle reliever. It's hard to see the pitching getting better in the future. So they have to develop position players the way they did last decade toward the beginning. Mayer and Casas, Bleis, Rafaela, and one of Yorke and/or Romero need to be somewhat comparable to what they had when they had Mookie, Devers, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Bradley. and Moncada coming up through the system or Pedroia and company the previous decade. We wont know with the hitters for awhile which is why I think ownership will give Bloom a little more rope than Cora will wind up getting.
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Post by tjb21 on Apr 14, 2023 11:51:49 GMT -5
That’s absurd. The Cubs were the biggest losers in all of sports when he arrived. He delivered a title in a short period after getting the gig and totally legitimized the franchise along the way. I’m not sure Theo would even want the Sox gig now(doubt it), but are you saying you prefer Bloom if you had a choice? I'm saying that blank check Theo wasn't the savant people remember him as. The Type A and Type B draft comp was Theo's best friend, not to mention the uncapped drafts.Bingo.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 14, 2023 11:59:04 GMT -5
More bites of the apple is my point. Did we expect any of Blooms draft picks to be contributing by early 2023? It's not like they were taking senior college relievers. Lester didn't break into the bigs until 4 years later. That's true but it is worrisome to me that Law and others have stated that there's precious little pitching in the minors. Beyond Bello there is nobody that projects as a real candidate to be a contributing member of the rotation. They all carry heavy reliever risk. The best the Sox seem to have are the guys that can be a 5th starter or multi inning middle reliever. It's hard to see the pitching getting better in the future. So they have to develop position players the way they did last decade toward the beginning. Mayer and Casas, Bleis, Rafaela, and one of Yorke and/or Romero need to be somewhat comparable to what they had when they had Mookie, Devers, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Bradley. and Moncada coming up through the system or Pedroia and company the previous decade. We wont know with the hitters for awhile which is why I think ownership will give Bloom a little more rope than Cora will wind up getting. Not that I'm saying it's all fine and dandy that the impact Sox minor league pitching prospects seem few and far between but couldn't you basically say the same thing the last 20 years about the Sox farm? You have to go back to Lester and Buchholz to find the last impact pitching prospect who made a difference on the Sox rotation. I agree with the 2nd part though, the lack of pitching puts the onus on the hitters to develop but either way cheap cost controlled talent is cheap cost controlled talent no matter what position. The main problem as has been stated by others is they haven't developed much in the way of ML players for many years now and as we've seen with baseball contracts it's almost impossible these days to field a competitive team year in and out without a steady influx of that talent.
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Post by yuchangclan on Apr 14, 2023 12:04:25 GMT -5
True, yet the Dodgers and Yankees continue to win 90 plus games per year while keeping a farm system as good or better than the Sox. Go figure. Those facts are directly related. The reason the Sox have not been winning lately is because they have had no production from their farm. That is why a lot of energy has been put into building it back up. How do we explain the Dodgers? How do they do it when they are always picking at the back of the pack and seem to have an unbelievable pipeline of talent at all times? Look at the likes of Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, Gonsolin, May, Urias, Will Smith, Lux etc… while still having the prospects to trade for Mookie, Darvish, Machado, Trey Turner/Scherzer etc…. Meanwhile, they hit the jackpot on scrap heap guys like Muncy, Chris Taylor and even Justin Turner. How do they do it? That’s the the team the Sox should be trying to emulate. I think Andrew Friedman was the real prize from the Rays organization.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 14, 2023 12:11:15 GMT -5
Those facts are directly related. The reason the Sox have not been winning lately is because they have had no production from their farm. That is why a lot of energy has been put into building it back up. How do we explain the Dodgers? How do they do it when they are always picking at the back of the pack and seem to have an unbelievable pipeline of talent at all times? Look at the likes of Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, Gonsolin, May, Urias, Will Smith, Lux etc… while still having the prospects to trade for Mookie, Darvish, Machado, Trey Turner/Scherzer etc…. Meanwhile, they hit the jackpot on scrap heap guys like Muncy, Chris Taylor and even Justin Turner. How do they do it? That’s the the team the Sox should be trying to emulate. I think Andrew Friedman was the real prize from the Rays organization. Meanwhile the Dodgers have one WS since the 90s and it was during the shortened covid year. I'm sorry but the whole everyone should emulate the Dodgers thing seems way overblown to me. Sure they've been successful in the regular season but under no circumstance as a Sox fan am I sitting here thinking gee I wish we were like the Dodgers the last 20 years!
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Post by blizzards39 on Apr 14, 2023 12:12:50 GMT -5
How do we explain the Dodgers? How do they do it when they are always picking at the back of the pack and seem to have an unbelievable pipeline of talent at all times? Look at the likes of Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, Gonsolin, May, Urias, Will Smith, Lux etc… while still having the prospects to trade for Mookie, Darvish, Machado, Trey Turner/Scherzer etc…. Meanwhile, they hit the jackpot on scrap heap guys like Muncy, Chris Taylor and even Justin Turner. How do they do it? That’s the the team the Sox should be trying to emulate. I think Andrew Friedman was the real prize from the Rays organization. Meanwhile the Dodgers have one WS since the 90s and it was during the shortened covid year. I'm sorry but the whole everyone should emulate the Dodgers thing seems way overblown to me. Sure they've been successful in the regular season but under no circumstance as a Sox fan am I sitting here thinking gee I wish we were like the Dodgers the last 20 years! Also blew everybody away in spending for 3ish years
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 14, 2023 12:25:32 GMT -5
I do see your point, but I don’t necessarily agree that more picks automatically equals success. Theo hit on a much higher percentage of his picks than anyone since. And not just fringe guys, either. I’m talking about all-stars and really solid major leaguers(did Theo sign Bogaerts and Vazquez too?). What has this system produced over the last several years? Anything that you are excited about? It’s been a massive dropoff that can’t simply be explained by “draft loopholes”. I used Chavis as an example of the typical prospect the Sox develop lately: much hyped, 3-4 years of wondering when he will arrive and then, ultimately, disappointment when we see the finished product. All they seem to develop recently are different versions of mediocrity and that has to change immediately for them to be relevant. More bites of the apple is my point. Did we expect any of Blooms draft picks to be contributing by early 2023? It's not like they were taking senior college relievers. Lester didn't break into the bigs until 4 years later. No, but Bloom's best draft pick thus far was a guy who probably should have gone number 1 overall. Yorke was a very good pick thus far and I remember the uproar when he was selected (on here at least). Outside of that a lot of TBD, but outside of that are there any guys he drafted other than Blaze Jordan that I should be excited about (not a snarky question, I'm legitimately asking)? As far as IFA, the same question would go for a prospect outside of Bleis. Edit: and that might be good enough for a GM to have that much after 3 years, but it highlights the dire situation the organization is in. His trades for young talent have mostly failed.
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Post by yuchangclan on Apr 14, 2023 12:25:58 GMT -5
How do we explain the Dodgers? How do they do it when they are always picking at the back of the pack and seem to have an unbelievable pipeline of talent at all times? Look at the likes of Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, Gonsolin, May, Urias, Will Smith, Lux etc… while still having the prospects to trade for Mookie, Darvish, Machado, Trey Turner/Scherzer etc…. Meanwhile, they hit the jackpot on scrap heap guys like Muncy, Chris Taylor and even Justin Turner. How do they do it? That’s the the team the Sox should be trying to emulate. I think Andrew Friedman was the real prize from the Rays organization. Meanwhile the Dodgers have one WS since the 90s and it was during the shortened covid year. I'm sorry but the whole everyone should emulate the Dodgers thing seems way overblown to me. Sure they've been successful in the regular season but under no circumstance as a Sox fan am I sitting here thinking gee I wish we were like the Dodgers the last 20 years! They also lost one WS to the asterisked Houston Astros, but they are always right in the mix. They don’t go first-to-worst and back to first like the Red Sox yo-yo ride that we always seem to be on. The Dodgers basically win that division every year and then find various ways to fall short in the postseason. But we know that the postseason is a crapshoot and that the best team doesn’t always win it all anyway. The larger point is that the Dodgers are just a factory of drafting & player development(and are even really good at reclamation projects). They do it better than anyone. A team with the resources that the Red Sox have should aspire to have similar success on development side.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 14, 2023 12:28:41 GMT -5
How do we explain the Dodgers? How do they do it when they are always picking at the back of the pack and seem to have an unbelievable pipeline of talent at all times? Look at the likes of Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, Gonsolin, May, Urias, Will Smith, Lux etc… while still having the prospects to trade for Mookie, Darvish, Machado, Trey Turner/Scherzer etc…. Meanwhile, they hit the jackpot on scrap heap guys like Muncy, Chris Taylor and even Justin Turner. How do they do it? That’s the the team the Sox should be trying to emulate. I think Andrew Friedman was the real prize from the Rays organization. Meanwhile the Dodgers have one WS since the 90s and it was during the shortened covid year. I'm sorry but the whole everyone should emulate the Dodgers thing seems way overblown to me. Sure they've been successful in the regular season but under no circumstance as a Sox fan am I sitting here thinking gee I wish we were like the Dodgers the last 20 years! Over the last 20 years, sure, but I think what you could say is that the Red Sox and Dodgers were in a similar position ca. 2016: loaded with young talent backed by some key veterans/free agents, and with stacked farm systems. The Red Sox went all in with that collection of assets, which won them a World Series and then plunged them into a quasi-wilderness (mitigated by the nice 2021 season). The Dodgers have managed to just keep the pipeline flowing. That strikes me as a good model to follow.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 14, 2023 12:34:58 GMT -5
Meanwhile the Dodgers have one WS since the 90s and it was during the shortened covid year. I'm sorry but the whole everyone should emulate the Dodgers thing seems way overblown to me. Sure they've been successful in the regular season but under no circumstance as a Sox fan am I sitting here thinking gee I wish we were like the Dodgers the last 20 years! Over the last 20 years, sure, but I think what you could say is that the Red Sox and Dodgers were in a similar position ca. 2016: loaded with young talent backed by some key veterans/free agents, and with stacked farm systems. The Red Sox went all in with that collection of assets, which won them a World Series and then plunged them into a quasi-wilderness (mitigated by the nice 2021 season). The Dodgers have managed to just keep the pipeline flowing. That strikes me as a good model to follow. you also have to account for the division's... Prior to the new scheduling, the NL west was one of the weakest Divisions in the NL, which allowed them to constantly make the playoffs because there was like one other team that would constantly put out a good team....
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 14, 2023 12:35:46 GMT -5
Meanwhile the Dodgers have one WS since the 90s and it was during the shortened covid year. I'm sorry but the whole everyone should emulate the Dodgers thing seems way overblown to me. Sure they've been successful in the regular season but under no circumstance as a Sox fan am I sitting here thinking gee I wish we were like the Dodgers the last 20 years! Over the last 20 years, sure, but I think what you could say is that the Red Sox and Dodgers were in a similar position ca. 2016: loaded with young talent backed by some key veterans/free agents, and with stacked farm systems. The Red Sox went all in with that collection of assets, which won them a World Series and then plunged them into a quasi-wilderness (mitigated by the nice 2021 season). The Dodgers have managed to just keep the pipeline flowing. That strikes me as a good model to follow. Fair enough but I guess I just find the whole Dodgers thing tiresome. Why is it always the Dodgers, why does nobody point to the Astros as the team to emulate? At least they've won multiple titles that weren't during covid. I'm sure the argument will be the cheating scandal I guess but to me it's kind of whatever. It's baseball, teams were all trying to find advantages and cheat. The Astros have been the most successful team the last 10 years and continually have pumped out awesome players themselves.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 14, 2023 12:35:55 GMT -5
NL West 2020: two teams above 500 2019 two teams above 500 2018 3 teams above 500 2017 3 teams above 500 2016 2 teams above 500 2015 two teams above 500 2014: two teams above 500 2013 two teams above 500
Al east: 2020: three teams above 500 2019 thee teams above 500 (two with 90+ wins) 2018 3 teams above 500 (3 with 90+ wins) 2017 2 teams above 500 (2 with 90+ wins) 2016 FOUR teams above 500 2015 THREE teams above 500 2014: THREE teams above 500 2013 FOUR teams above 500 (2 with 90+ wins)
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 14, 2023 13:03:40 GMT -5
Over the last 20 years, sure, but I think what you could say is that the Red Sox and Dodgers were in a similar position ca. 2016: loaded with young talent backed by some key veterans/free agents, and with stacked farm systems. The Red Sox went all in with that collection of assets, which won them a World Series and then plunged them into a quasi-wilderness (mitigated by the nice 2021 season). The Dodgers have managed to just keep the pipeline flowing. That strikes me as a good model to follow. Fair enough but I guess I just find the whole Dodgers thing tiresome. Why is it always the Dodgers, why does nobody point to the Astros as the team to emulate? At least they've won multiple titles that weren't during covid. I'm sure the argument will be the cheating scandal I guess but to me it's kind of whatever. It's baseball, teams were all trying to find advantages and cheat. The Astros have been the most successful team the last 10 years and continually have pumped out awesome players themselves. I know the WS is the ultimate goal, but you do have to account there's an element of luck in October, not to mention the Astros and Red Sox likely stole rings from them (unless the video room thing wasn't applicable during the playoffs?) From a team building standpoint, the GM has put the best possible product on the field and the team failed to deliver for one reason or another.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 14, 2023 13:09:06 GMT -5
Fair enough but I guess I just find the whole Dodgers thing tiresome. Why is it always the Dodgers, why does nobody point to the Astros as the team to emulate? At least they've won multiple titles that weren't during covid. I'm sure the argument will be the cheating scandal I guess but to me it's kind of whatever. It's baseball, teams were all trying to find advantages and cheat. The Astros have been the most successful team the last 10 years and continually have pumped out awesome players themselves. I know the WS is the ultimate goal, but you do have to account there's an element of luck in October, not to mention the Astros and Red Sox likely stole rings from them (unless the video room thing wasn't applicable during the playoffs?) I won't dispute that of all the pro sports baseball is the one where the champion isn't necessarily always the best team if that makes any sense. I'm saying it in a poor way but can't put into better words what I mean. Still, I'm not buying the narrative that the Dodgers "had rings stolen" from them.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 14, 2023 13:27:54 GMT -5
The notion that the Rays' karma (wOBA - xwOBA) on ground balls yesterday was the result of the Rays doing something smart or correct -- a notion hammered home by Julian McWilliams of the Globe in his game story, and echoed by Peter Abraham in his -- is complete and utter bilge, nonsense, what have you. Feel free to add several f-bombs to that characterization.
In the young season the the Rays now rank 26th in the number of pulled grounders, and 20th in karma. That includes yesterday.
What happened yesterday? They pulled 5 grounders (their average per game is now 4.65) with a karma of .387. MLB average is -.018.
This performance brought them up to -.050 on the season.
They now rank 28th in number of grounders hit straightaway, and first in Karma. Yesterday they had 3 (average on year, 3.3) and had a .618 karma to bring them from .077 (edging the Astros for first) up to .115.
It's opposite field grounders where you can do damage -- the league has a karma of .150. The Rays had 2 yesterday (average per game now 1.4) with a .235 karma, bringing them up to .152, which is to say, average.
Overall they are 27th in grounders hit and 6th in karma. If their Karma on balls up the middle is for real, why do they do that so rarely? Why are they well below average on karma on pulled grounders?
It's luck. (You don't win 13 straight games without some of it.) But sportswriters hate to cite luck as a reason for an outcome.
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