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4/10-4/13 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 14, 2023 13:28:07 GMT -5
I know the WS is the ultimate goal, but you do have to account there's an element of luck in October, not to mention the Astros and Red Sox likely stole rings from them (unless the video room thing wasn't applicable during the playoffs?) I won't dispute that of all the pro sports baseball is the one where the champion isn't necessarily always the best team if that makes any sense. I'm saying it in a poor way but can't put into better words what I mean. Still, I'm not buying the narrative that the Dodgers "had rings stolen" from them. I guess it depends on how much you feel the cheating helped the other teams. I personally say the Astros and the Sox are champions. I don't put much thought into it beyond that, but I can see Dodgers fans being annoyed and making that claim. And I completely agree about your other point. The NBA is the best team generally, hockey and baseball are very much a crapshoot with an edge to the better teams and the NFL used to be a perfect blend of unpredictable and the best team winning, but now just seems like the best QB wins. Not exact, but that's basically how I've felt about each sport.
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Post by yuchangclan on Apr 14, 2023 13:32:41 GMT -5
Over the last 20 years, sure, but I think what you could say is that the Red Sox and Dodgers were in a similar position ca. 2016: loaded with young talent backed by some key veterans/free agents, and with stacked farm systems. The Red Sox went all in with that collection of assets, which won them a World Series and then plunged them into a quasi-wilderness (mitigated by the nice 2021 season). The Dodgers have managed to just keep the pipeline flowing. That strikes me as a good model to follow. Fair enough but I guess I just find the whole Dodgers thing tiresome. Why is it always the Dodgers, why does nobody point to the Astros as the team to emulate? At least they've won multiple titles that weren't during covid. I'm sure the argument will be the cheating scandal I guess but to me it's kind of whatever. It's baseball, teams were all trying to find advantages and cheat. The Astros have been the most successful team the last 10 years and continually have pumped out awesome players themselves. The Astros lost 111 games 10 years ago, didn’t get a wild card until 2015 and re-emerged in 2017 to win the division. They’ve been a force ever since, of course. But they plumbed depths that the Dodgers never saw in order to come back with this much success.
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Post by yuchangclan on Apr 14, 2023 13:39:17 GMT -5
How do we explain the Dodgers? How do they do it when they are always picking at the back of the pack and seem to have an unbelievable pipeline of talent at all times? Look at the likes of Seager, Bellinger, Buehler, Gonsolin, May, Urias, Will Smith, Lux etc… while still having the prospects to trade for Mookie, Darvish, Machado, Trey Turner/Scherzer etc…. Meanwhile, they hit the jackpot on scrap heap guys like Muncy, Chris Taylor and even Justin Turner. How do they do it? That’s the the team the Sox should be trying to emulate. I think Andrew Friedman was the real prize from the Rays organization. Meanwhile the Dodgers have one WS since the 90s and it was during the shortened covid year. I'm sorry but the whole everyone should emulate the Dodgers thing seems way overblown to me. Sure they've been successful in the regular season but under no circumstance as a Sox fan am I sitting here thinking gee I wish we were like the Dodgers the last 20 years! Over 20 years, of course not. But that is also taking the Dodgers back the Frank McCourt era when they were run as poorly as any team in MLB. Over the last 10 years, the Sox have gone to the World Series twice and the Dodgers have gone 3 times. The Dodgers have won more division titles and made more playoff appearances(no sub-.500 Seasons, either). The big difference, of course, is that the Sox won both times they got to the WS. They’ve also endured some miserable campaigns along the way.
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Post by pappyman99 on Apr 14, 2023 13:41:03 GMT -5
Biggest problem is Bloom completely failed to capitalize on assets.
In 2019/2020 all of our major assets were at the major league level.
Martinez, Betts, Benintendi, Erod, bogaerts, Devers and eovaldi
Martinez should have been traded by himself during the 2019 offseason, Betts should have been traded by himself in the same offseason. That would have maximized returns and gotten us under the cap. You just live with price’s contract for the duration at that point.
Benintendi had no business being traded at his all time low moment, and it didn’t take a genius to realize that was an awful time trade him.
As for bogaerts the real issue is Blooms decided story was worth story’s contract but that bogaerts wasn’t worth story’s contract. That is a huge blunder, especially since the whole world new Story’s arm was a problem
So it’s not all about the lack of drafts. It’s return on assets 101 or lack there of
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Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2023 13:42:45 GMT -5
The notion that the Rays' karma (wOBA - xwOBA) on ground balls yesterday was the result of the Rays doing something smart or correct -- a notion hammered home by Julian McWilliams of the Globe in his game story, and echoed by Peter Abraham in his -- is complete and utter bilge, nonsense, what have you. Feel free to add several f-bombs to that characterization.
In the young season the the Rays now rank 26th in the number of pulled grounders, and 20th in karma. That includes yesterday.
What happened yesterday? They pulled 5 grounders (their average per game is now 4.65) with a karma of .387. MLB average is -.018.
This performance brought them up to -.050 on the season.
They now rank 28th in number of grounders hit straightaway, and first in Karma. Yesterday they had 3 (average on year, 3.3) and had a .618 karma to bring them from .077 (edging the Astros for first) up to .115.
It's opposite field grounders where you can do damage -- the league has a karma of .150. The Rays had 2 yesterday (average per game now 1.4) with a .235 karma, bringing them up to .152, which is to say, average.
Overall they are 27th in grounders hit and 6th in karma. If their Karma on balls up the middle is for real, why do they do that so rarely? Why are they well below average on karma on pulled grounders?
It's luck. (You don't win 13 straight games without some of it.) But sportswriters hate to cite luck as a reason for an outcome.
Well, their luckiest break was four games against the last place team ‘22 and now ‘23. The Rays streak should have an asterisk.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 14, 2023 14:05:27 GMT -5
Over the last 20 years, sure, but I think what you could say is that the Red Sox and Dodgers were in a similar position ca. 2016: loaded with young talent backed by some key veterans/free agents, and with stacked farm systems. The Red Sox went all in with that collection of assets, which won them a World Series and then plunged them into a quasi-wilderness (mitigated by the nice 2021 season). The Dodgers have managed to just keep the pipeline flowing. That strikes me as a good model to follow. Fair enough but I guess I just find the whole Dodgers thing tiresome. Why is it always the Dodgers, why does nobody point to the Astros as the team to emulate? At least they've won multiple titles that weren't during covid. I'm sure the argument will be the cheating scandal I guess but to me it's kind of whatever. It's baseball, teams were all trying to find advantages and cheat. The Astros have been the most successful team the last 10 years and continually have pumped out awesome players themselves. Can't speak for others, but for my part it's cuz the Astros tanked for the better part of a decade to get good, and now once again have a barren farm system so they're likely due for another nadir starting in t-minus 2 years or so. I don't want to be a fan of a boom-and-bust franchise; I'd much rather have a shot at being a playoff team every year - which the Red Sox at least have had in recent years, even if some of those seasons went south.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 14, 2023 14:10:59 GMT -5
The notion that the Rays' karma (wOBA - xwOBA) on ground balls yesterday was the result of the Rays doing something smart or correct -- a notion hammered home by Julian McWilliams of the Globe in his game story, and echoed by Peter Abraham in his -- is complete and utter bilge, nonsense, what have you. Feel free to add several f-bombs to that characterization.
In the young season the the Rays now rank 26th in the number of pulled grounders, and 20th in karma. That includes yesterday.
What happened yesterday? They pulled 5 grounders (their average per game is now 4.65) with a karma of .387. MLB average is -.018.
This performance brought them up to -.050 on the season.
They now rank 28th in number of grounders hit straightaway, and first in Karma. Yesterday they had 3 (average on year, 3.3) and had a .618 karma to bring them from .077 (edging the Astros for first) up to .115.
It's opposite field grounders where you can do damage -- the league has a karma of .150. The Rays had 2 yesterday (average per game now 1.4) with a .235 karma, bringing them up to .152, which is to say, average.
Overall they are 27th in grounders hit and 6th in karma. If their Karma on balls up the middle is for real, why do they do that so rarely? Why are they well below average on karma on pulled grounders?
It's luck. (You don't win 13 straight games without some of it.) But sportswriters hate to cite luck as a reason for an outcome.
Everything has to have a narrative logic, and usually a moral logic as well - victories have to be the product of skill; failing that, of grit and determination; failing that, of hubris and tragedy. Above all, outcomes must be just.
As for me, I believe that whatever ultimate purpose the universe may have is fundamentally unknowable; therefore I make no demand that outcomes be just.
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Post by pappyman99 on Apr 14, 2023 14:11:13 GMT -5
Fair enough but I guess I just find the whole Dodgers thing tiresome. Why is it always the Dodgers, why does nobody point to the Astros as the team to emulate? At least they've won multiple titles that weren't during covid. I'm sure the argument will be the cheating scandal I guess but to me it's kind of whatever. It's baseball, teams were all trying to find advantages and cheat. The Astros have been the most successful team the last 10 years and continually have pumped out awesome players themselves. Can't speak for others, but for my part it's cuz the Astros tanked for the better part of a decade to get good, and now once again have a barren farm system so they're likely due for another nadir starting in t-minus 2 years or so. I don't want to be a fan of a boom-and-bust franchise; I'd much rather have a shot at being a playoff team every year - which the Red Sox at least have had in recent years, even if some of those seasons went south. I disagree with this assessment. If they manage their contracts right they should be very competitive for 5+ years, which is plenty of time to replenish
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 14, 2023 14:29:28 GMT -5
The notion that the Rays' karma (wOBA - xwOBA) on ground balls yesterday was the result of the Rays doing something smart or correct -- a notion hammered home by Julian McWilliams of the Globe in his game story, and echoed by Peter Abraham in his -- is complete and utter bilge, nonsense, what have you. Feel free to add several f-bombs to that characterization.
In the young season the the Rays now rank 26th in the number of pulled grounders, and 20th in karma. That includes yesterday.
What happened yesterday? They pulled 5 grounders (their average per game is now 4.65) with a karma of .387. MLB average is -.018.
This performance brought them up to -.050 on the season.
They now rank 28th in number of grounders hit straightaway, and first in Karma. Yesterday they had 3 (average on year, 3.3) and had a .618 karma to bring them from .077 (edging the Astros for first) up to .115.
It's opposite field grounders where you can do damage -- the league has a karma of .150. The Rays had 2 yesterday (average per game now 1.4) with a .235 karma, bringing them up to .152, which is to say, average.
Overall they are 27th in grounders hit and 6th in karma. If their Karma on balls up the middle is for real, why do they do that so rarely? Why are they well below average on karma on pulled grounders?
It's luck. (You don't win 13 straight games without some of it.) But sportswriters hate to cite luck as a reason for an outcome.
Well, their luckiest break was four games against the last place team ‘22 and now ‘23. The Rays streak should have an asterisk. I know you're being tongue in cheek, but I'll just point out that this isn't really true. Even if the Red Sox were a true talent .600 team and the Rays were average, the Rays still would have better odds of sweeping that team at random than they did of those balls all being hits.
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Post by briam on Apr 14, 2023 14:30:22 GMT -5
Biggest problem is Bloom completely failed to capitalize on assets. In 2019/2020 all of our major assets were at the major league level. Martinez, Betts, Benintendi, Erod, bogaerts, Devers and eovaldi Martinez should have been traded by himself during the 2019 offseason, Betts should have been traded by himself in the same offseason. That would have maximized returns and gotten us under the cap. You just live with price’s contract for the duration at that point. Benintendi had no business being traded at his all time low moment, and it didn’t take a genius to realize that was an awful time trade him. As for bogaerts the real issue is Blooms decided story was worth story’s contract but that bogaerts wasn’t worth story’s contract. That is a huge blunder, especially since the whole world new Story’s arm was a problem So it’s not all about the lack of drafts. It’s return on assets 101 or lack there of Exactly, the state of the organization wasn’t the dump some people claimed it was when Bloom took over, but it certainly was in need of a change in direction. Getting next to nothing from the 2018 core as they either got traded or walked out the door was a disaster. We all praise Bloom for the Workman-Pivetta and Ramirez-Schwarber deals but they are severely outweighed by the number of trades he came out on the short end (Betts, Benintendi, Renfroe, and even Springs). It’s just insane that he turned Betts, Beni, Renfroe, JD, Eovaldi, and Xander into… Verdugo and Winck?
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 14, 2023 16:44:37 GMT -5
Biggest problem is Bloom completely failed to capitalize on assets. In 2019/2020 all of our major assets were at the major league level. Martinez, Betts, Benintendi, Erod, bogaerts, Devers and eovaldi Martinez should have been traded by himself during the 2019 offseason, Betts should have been traded by himself in the same offseason. That would have maximized returns and gotten us under the cap. You just live with price’s contract for the duration at that point. Benintendi had no business being traded at his all time low moment, and it didn’t take a genius to realize that was an awful time trade him. As for bogaerts the real issue is Blooms decided story was worth story’s contract but that bogaerts wasn’t worth story’s contract. That is a huge blunder, especially since the whole world new Story’s arm was a problem So it’s not all about the lack of drafts. It’s return on assets 101 or lack there of Exactly, the state of the organization wasn’t the dump some people claimed it was when Bloom took over, but it certainly was in need of a change in direction. Getting next to nothing from the 2018 core as they either got traded or walked out the door was a disaster. We all praise Bloom for the Workman-Pivetta and Ramirez-Schwarber deals but they are severely outweighed by the number of trades he came out on the short end (Betts, Benintendi, Renfroe, and even Springs). It’s just insane that he turned Betts, Beni, Renfroe, JD, Eovaldi, and Xander into… Verdugo and Winck? It's also frustrating that none of his prospect acquisitions have ascended and some have cratered. I'm not critical of him for any one prospect acquisition that failed because BB talent is incredibly hard to project. Trading for Jeter Downs was not a mistake IMO. Trading for Connor Seabold was not a mistake IMO. If he was insistent on trading Hunter Renfroe for a higher-salaried player to get a prospect back, Alex Binelas was not a mistake IMO. When you acquire prospects, you're going to have a high miss rate, so it's unfair to bash an executive over any one acquisition. But you should hit on one here or there. Bloom hasn't. I have hope for Valdez and Abreu but neither is highly rated at the moment. There's reason to think his drafts might work out better. Romero, Yorke and obviously Mayer all have chances to be impact MLers. Roman Anthony, Blazer, Hickey and others are far away but have potential. And of course, guys we're not even discussing now can rise.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 15, 2023 15:19:51 GMT -5
Exactly, the state of the organization wasn’t the dump some people claimed it was when Bloom took over, but it certainly was in need of a change in direction. Getting next to nothing from the 2018 core as they either got traded or walked out the door was a disaster. We all praise Bloom for the Workman-Pivetta and Ramirez-Schwarber deals but they are severely outweighed by the number of trades he came out on the short end (Betts, Benintendi, Renfroe, and even Springs). It’s just insane that he turned Betts, Beni, Renfroe, JD, Eovaldi, and Xander into… Verdugo and Winck? It's also frustrating that none of his prospect acquisitions have ascended and some have cratered. I'm not critical of him for any one prospect acquisition that failed because BB talent is incredibly hard to project. Trading for Jeter Downs was not a mistake IMO. Trading for Connor Seabold was not a mistake IMO. If he was insistent on trading Hunter Renfroe for a higher-salaried player to get a prospect back, Alex Binelas was not a mistake IMO. When you acquire prospects, you're going to have a high miss rate, so it's unfair to bash an executive over any one acquisition. But you should hit on one here or there. Bloom hasn't. I have hope for Valdez and Abreu but neither is highly rated at the moment. There's reason to think his drafts might work out better. Romero, Yorke and obviously Mayer all have chances to be impact MLers. Roman Anthony, Blazer, Hickey and others are far away but have potential. And of course, guys we're not even discussing now can rise. This is a valid and very interesting point. I just went back and looked at the Rays' starters. Diaz - trade from Cleveland for Jake Bauers Lowe - draft pick (87 overall) Arozarena - trade from St Louis with José Martinez for Matthew Liberatore & Edguardo Rodriguez. Franco - intl free agent signed by Rays Raley - trade from Dodgers for Tanner Dodson Ramírez - trade from Cubs for Esteban Quiroz Parades - trade from Tigers for Austin Meadows and a competitive balance pick Brujan - intl free agent signed by the Rays Margot - trade from the Padres for Emilio Pagan Bethancourt - trade from the As for Christian Fernández and Cal Stevenson Siri (IL) - trade from Houston Also, their pitching staff - McClanahan, Rassmussen, Beeks, Springs, Flemming and Efflin (IL) - are Comp Round (31 overall) Rays pick, 5th Round pick, Trade, Trade, Trade and Free Agent. So a decidedly not home-grown roster and almost entirely made of the kind of value trades or ranked prospect trades we expected from Bloom but have, for the most part either fallen flat or not occurred.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 15, 2023 15:22:59 GMT -5
i think there’s something to the environment the rays play in that allows pieces to develop and flourish
Compare it Boston where you have fans clamoring to bench their star prospect 1B after 40 ABs and well…I think Tampa is a little more accommodating and gives them more air to breathe. A little more forgiving.
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Post by kingstephanos on Apr 15, 2023 15:31:57 GMT -5
i think there’s something to the environment the rays play in that allows pieces to develop and flourish Compare it Boston where you have fans clamoring to bench their star prospect 1B after 40 ABs and well…I think Tampa is a little more accommodating and gives them more air to breathe. A little more forgiving. I completely understand the sentiment your making. However, for me, that removes the onus and accountability from the development staff and the BoSox's own self scouting philosophies. Prospect evaluation is extremely difficult, and unfortunately the current regime (that includes folks from previous eras) have made decisions that have handicapped the amount of talent available for the big league club via minor league advancement. And I say this while never previously being a Bloom detractor. Since 2019, I've been much more critical of Cora's managerial style, honestly.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Apr 15, 2023 15:56:48 GMT -5
i think there’s something to the environment the rays play in that allows pieces to develop and flourish Compare it Boston where you have fans clamoring to bench their star prospect 1B after 40 ABs and well…I think Tampa is a little more accommodating and gives them more air to breathe. A little more forgiving. Eh, I don't think there's much of a clamor to bench TC. I think the kid's going to an OPS beast. And I would argue it's better for players to play in front of rabid fans than in front of empty seats in an ugly concrete edifice.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 15, 2023 15:57:42 GMT -5
i think there’s something to the environment the rays play in that allows pieces to develop and flourish Compare it Boston where you have fans clamoring to bench their star prospect 1B after 40 ABs and well…I think Tampa is a little more accommodating and gives them more air to breathe. A little more forgiving. Yes - edifying to read Springs' comments in the Globe today. He felt pressure in Boston. He felt none in Tampa.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 15, 2023 15:59:26 GMT -5
i think there’s something to the environment the rays play in that allows pieces to develop and flourish Compare it Boston where you have fans clamoring to bench their star prospect 1B after 40 ABs and well…I think Tampa is a little more accommodating and gives them more air to breathe. A little more forgiving. Yes - edifying to read Springs' comments in the Globe today. He felt pressure in Boston. He felt none in Tampa. Didn’t even see that, I’ll have to go seek that article out. Thx for the heads up!
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Post by Guidas on Apr 15, 2023 16:00:34 GMT -5
i think there’s something to the environment the rays play in that allows pieces to develop and flourish Compare it Boston where you have fans clamoring to bench their star prospect 1B after 40 ABs and well…I think Tampa is a little more accommodating and gives them more air to breathe. A little more forgiving. I completely understand the sentiment your making. However, for me, that removes the onus and accountability from the development staff and the BoSox's own self scouting philosophies.
Prospect evaluation is extremely difficult, and unfortunately the current regime (that includes folks from previous eras) have made decisions that have handicapped the amount of talent available for the big league club via minor league advancement.
And I say this while never previously being a Bloom detractor. Since 2019, I've been much more critical of Cora's managerial style, honestly. I completely believe this, too. After reading more and more about Houston, Tampa and LAD's integration of scouting and player development departments - and all having more traditional scouts on staff - leads me to believe that they've found something that other teams are missing. What it is, I have no idea.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,596
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Post by cdj on Apr 15, 2023 16:05:19 GMT -5
i think there’s something to the environment the rays play in that allows pieces to develop and flourish Compare it Boston where you have fans clamoring to bench their star prospect 1B after 40 ABs and well…I think Tampa is a little more accommodating and gives them more air to breathe. A little more forgiving. Eh, I don't think there's much of a clamor to bench TC. I think the kid's going to an OPS beast. And I would argue it's better for players to play in front of rabid fans than in front of empty seats in an ugly concrete edifice. I think it’s definitely better for select individuals but I think the majority of people do better without overwhelming pressure and negativity. I’m sure the Rays player dev staff is absolutely sick too, that probably helps
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Post by Guidas on Apr 15, 2023 16:11:01 GMT -5
Yes - edifying to read Springs' comments in the Globe today. He felt pressure in Boston. He felt none in Tampa. Didn’t even see that, I’ll have to go seek that article out. Thx for the heads up! Tampa also tweaked some stuff in his delivery. The key point is, though, he was one of the guys on another team that they really liked (similar to a lot of guys on their current roster) who the other teams had given up on or under-valued. The Rays, Dodgers and Houston seem to be identifying such guys that other teams are missing. They don't hit every time, but they're hitting often. In fact, listened to a recent Law podcast where he talked about prospects he saw in AZ a couple weeks ago and there was a pitcher, River Ryan, an 11th round draft pick who the LAD got from SD for effectively nothing - Matt Beaty (at the time a 28 year-old career minor leaguer). Law says Ryan looks right now like a MLB Top 25 prospect. He said, other than having pitched very few innings, he could start for about 20-25 MLB teams right now, but that the Dodgers want to build up his innings. He's in AA right now. Should be the next newly-anointed "next Dodger ace" guy sometime in 2024 if he stays healthy.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 15, 2023 17:23:05 GMT -5
i think there’s something to the environment the rays play in that allows pieces to develop and flourish Compare it Boston where you have fans clamoring to bench their star prospect 1B after 40 ABs and well…I think Tampa is a little more accommodating and gives them more air to breathe. A little more forgiving. Yes - edifying to read Springs' comments in the Globe today. He felt pressure in Boston. He felt none in Tampa. Springs really felt pressure in Boston... in 2020? When there were no fans in the stands and the team was not in any sort of race?
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Post by Guidas on Apr 15, 2023 18:59:35 GMT -5
Yes - edifying to read Springs' comments in the Globe today. He felt pressure in Boston. He felt none in Tampa. Springs really felt pressure in Boston... in 2020? When there were no fans in the stands and the team was not in any sort of race? His words not mine.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Apr 15, 2023 19:14:25 GMT -5
Hey the Sox saw an undersized up and down infielder with the Braves last year.They jumped all over him after Atlanta undervalued him. They tried to slip him through waivers, lost the player and then to sneers and mocking, sought out that player in the off-season and signed him back up...
That player as you guys know, probably just single handedly turned Boston's whole season around...
I don't have tell you guys, but his name is...
Chang, Yu Chang Bitches!
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Post by yuchangclan on Apr 16, 2023 0:08:36 GMT -5
Yes - edifying to read Springs' comments in the Globe today. He felt pressure in Boston. He felt none in Tampa. Springs really felt pressure in Boston... in 2020? When there were no fans in the stands and the team was not in any sort of race? That’s what the man said…. Springs told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that he regretting having “severely underperformed” during his lone season in a Sox uniform. “I think I put too much pressure on myself there,” Springs said. “I felt like I had to put up a zero every time and that made it harder on myself. That’s a bad mentality to have.”
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,596
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Post by cdj on Apr 16, 2023 7:14:31 GMT -5
Even in a covid season with no fans in the ballpark you’re under the microscope in this market. If you stink fans will talk about it and reporters will write about it
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