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5/19-5/21 Red Sox @ Padres Series Thread
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Post by awalkinthepark on May 20, 2023 9:20:22 GMT -5
Interesting hypothetical. I think the Devers contract was a knee-jerk reaction to losing X and probably would NOT have gotten done if they had signed Xander. After everyone freaked out and called the Sox cheap, they signed Devers right away to save some face. Maybe things worked out for the best. There is no chance a team would sign a $330 million contract to avoid being called cheap. The reason to sign Rafael Devers is that he's a good baseball player. Unlike Bogaerts he is still young, the deal will only run until his mid-30s, and there are fewer red flags (e.g. Boagerts' bat seemingly declining a bit - do we really believe X of all people is going to be carried by his defense for meaningful stretches of his contract?). The advantage X has is that he plays SS and those skills will translate elsewhere even if his overall defense declines. He can move to 3B or 2B as he gets into his mid thirties and he will be fine, and his bat is good enough to play at those positions. Devers on the other hand can only move to 1B or DH which would be a sledgehammer to his value unless he hits like Yordan.
The good news is Devers looks as athletic this year as I've ever seen him, hopefully he keeps it up and can stay at 3B. I also agree the Sox wouldn't give out a $300 million contract to save face. If they really weren't confident in his ability to play 3B I think you would have seen them go another direction.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 20, 2023 9:25:37 GMT -5
Watched the game this morning, Devers was crushing it. Came to the game thread and saw 9 pages and thought it would be a great read. Then i read the first 4 pages of posts and, no, it wasn't. Good Lord, too much serious point / counterpoint that had nothing to do with the game. Mods...you should squash that when it gets out of hand like it did. Let's leave the game thread for the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. Give us some red meat. Just skip the ‘stuff’ you do not want to read….I definitely do….
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Post by pappyman99 on May 20, 2023 9:58:23 GMT -5
I’m not talking statistics. But I hate the “he accumulated enough WAR to be worth it argument.” Guys who are counted on who sit *hurt* the team. It is not neutral that Story is out… it is detrimental. It is tens of millions of dead dollars. It is getting stopgaps at a key position because you’ve got an investment you are waiting on. That is all very bad. I don’t care about some byzantine formula to calculate to the tenth how bad it is. I don't understand your argument. You're complaining that WAR calculations don't account for the detrimental effect of a guy being injured. But WAR fully accounts for the guy not playing at all - he is accumulating zero WAR! If Story misses the whole season, his contract, for this season, will look really bad!
It's like you think that WAR somehow makes Story being injured look better, but I promise you, Story's 2023 WAR total is very poor so far!
"I don’t care about some byzantine formula to calculate to the tenth how bad it is." So if instead of saying "Story has accumulated 0 WAR this season," I said "Story's absence has been really bad this season," would that address your complaint because it's a less precise statement?
Not to go crazy into this but wanted to respond because perhaps there is another measurement to expand on WAR. Doesn’t Fangraphs have a measurement of WAR money that the player is worth? One could make the argument that 0.0 WAR is not Story’s value this year, but actually a prorated negative amount by what his salary is and What the salary equals in WAR terms. I mean that’s more abstract though than on field WAR production Not arguing anything here, thinking out loud before the game later
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,582
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Post by radiohix on May 20, 2023 10:23:31 GMT -5
On the Padres cast they said that Snell gave up 5 runs to Sox in his his previous 8 starts (6-0 record). Man, Rays pitching coach Dan Snyder is a damn wizard and the Sox should be trying to hire him next offseason. It would be a better addition than any FA signing.
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Post by patford on May 20, 2023 10:32:04 GMT -5
Since after a nice win and nine pages people are still rehashing Bogaerts I'll add my year old hash. Last year really soured me on Bogaerts. What started it was the season long drama as compared the the "radio silence" concerning Judge and NY. While Bogaerts himself didn't say much there was clearly a lot being said and Bogaerts did nothing to silence it. Then after he was gone he made critical comments regarding the Sox which in my view were unprofessional. It's also since turned out the Sox "opening bid" was not the gross insult as portrayed but a reasonable starting point for any negotiation. And Bogaerts insistence that he stay at SS while other SS as good or better have moved off the position wasn't putting the team ahead of his own hurt feelings.
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Post by patford on May 20, 2023 10:45:45 GMT -5
On the Padres cast they said that Snell gave up 5 runs to Sox in his his previous 8 starts (6-0 record). Man, Rays pitching coach Dan Snyder is a damn wizard and the Sox should be trying to hire him next offseason. It would be a better addition than any FA signing. While they are at it they should hire the Rays hitting coach. It's absolutely bizarre how the Rays pick up pitching and hitting cast-offs from other teams and the player has a career year and then goes right back to being a pumpkin. If there is some magical formula then how is it players completely forget it once they are gone? Logan Morrison, Steven Souza Jr., Brad Miller, etc.
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Post by incandenza on May 20, 2023 10:47:08 GMT -5
Watched the game this morning, Devers was crushing it. Came to the game thread and saw 9 pages and thought it would be a great read. Then i read the first 4 pages of posts and, no, it wasn't. Good Lord, too much serious point / counterpoint that had nothing to do with the game. Mods...you should squash that when it gets out of hand like it did. Let's leave the game thread for the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. Give us some red meat. Cuz the thread was up for a day and a half before the game started. Just skip to the timestamp for the start of the game if that's what you're looking for.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 20, 2023 10:48:19 GMT -5
On the Padres cast they said that Snell gave up 5 runs to Sox in his his previous 8 starts (6-0 record). Man, Rays pitching coach Dan Snyder is a damn wizard and the Sox should be trying to hire him next offseason. It would be a better addition than any FA signing. You mean Kyle Snyder, who also happens to be a guy who was on the 2007 World Series roster for the Red Sox as the last guy in the bullpen.
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Post by incandenza on May 20, 2023 10:52:54 GMT -5
I don't understand your argument. You're complaining that WAR calculations don't account for the detrimental effect of a guy being injured. But WAR fully accounts for the guy not playing at all - he is accumulating zero WAR! If Story misses the whole season, his contract, for this season, will look really bad!
It's like you think that WAR somehow makes Story being injured look better, but I promise you, Story's 2023 WAR total is very poor so far!
"I don’t care about some byzantine formula to calculate to the tenth how bad it is." So if instead of saying "Story has accumulated 0 WAR this season," I said "Story's absence has been really bad this season," would that address your complaint because it's a less precise statement?
Not to go crazy into this but wanted to respond because perhaps there is another measurement to expand on WAR. Doesn’t Fangraphs have a measurement of WAR money that the player is worth? One could make the argument that 0.0 WAR is not Story’s value this year, but actually a prorated negative amount by what his salary is and What the salary equals in WAR terms.I mean that’s more abstract though than on field WAR production Not arguing anything here, thinking out loud before the game later That seems reasonable to me! Fangraphs says Story has earned $19.1 million on his contract so far (it's at the bottom of the player page). He's been paid about $29.9 million so far. So call it -$10.8 million in value. Obviously there's some false precision to that number, but it does give a general sense of how poorly the contract has worked out.
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Post by awalkinthepark on May 20, 2023 11:00:13 GMT -5
I don't understand your argument. You're complaining that WAR calculations don't account for the detrimental effect of a guy being injured. But WAR fully accounts for the guy not playing at all - he is accumulating zero WAR! If Story misses the whole season, his contract, for this season, will look really bad!
It's like you think that WAR somehow makes Story being injured look better, but I promise you, Story's 2023 WAR total is very poor so far!
"I don’t care about some byzantine formula to calculate to the tenth how bad it is." So if instead of saying "Story has accumulated 0 WAR this season," I said "Story's absence has been really bad this season," would that address your complaint because it's a less precise statement?
Not to go crazy into this but wanted to respond because perhaps there is another measurement to expand on WAR. Doesn’t Fangraphs have a measurement of WAR money that the player is worth? One could make the argument that 0.0 WAR is not Story’s value this year, but actually a prorated negative amount by what his salary is and What the salary equals in WAR terms. I mean that’s more abstract though than on field WAR production Not arguing anything here, thinking out loud before the game later Fangraphs just derives their dollar value by multiplying a player's WAR by the going rate for 1 win on the free agent market. Not sure if any studies were done on what that is now after this past winter but for the last few years it's been around $8 million/win. You can then compare that number to a player's salary to get their surplus value or see the deficit. After this season Story will have been paid $40 million, which at $8 million/win means the Red Sox were expecting to buy 5 WAR from him over the first 2 seasons of the contract. He's currently sitting at 2.4 WAR, so if he can put up 2.6 WAR this year he will break even from a value standpoint. Anything less and the contract is technically in the 'red', though it in reality it just means the Red Sox paid a higher $/WAR than they would have with some other hypothetical signing.
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Post by yuchangclan on May 20, 2023 12:29:30 GMT -5
On the Padres cast they said that Snell gave up 5 runs to Sox in his his previous 8 starts (6-0 record). Man, Rays pitching coach Dan Snyder is a damn wizard and the Sox should be trying to hire him next offseason. It would be a better addition than any FA signing. You mean Kyle Snyder, who also happens to be a guy who was on the 2007 World Series roster for the Red Sox as the last guy in the bullpen. He’s a good guy! He actually came over and signed(and was chatting it up) for some kids right near me during my first trip to Petco. It was Beckett v. Peavy and it was a picture-perfect SoCal day, as well. David Ortiz was taking BP with an aluminum bat, too. Good times. If you haven’t made it to Petco, you should put it on your list. Just an absolute gem of a ballpark and the surrounding area is amazing as well.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 20, 2023 13:04:46 GMT -5
Wouldn't it be something if Connor Wong snuck in and won ROY. Imagine the prop bet odds.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 20, 2023 13:50:51 GMT -5
You mean Kyle Snyder, who also happens to be a guy who was on the 2007 World Series roster for the Red Sox as the last guy in the bullpen. He’s a good guy! He actually came over and signed(and was chatting it up) for some kids right near me during my first trip to Petco. It was Beckett v. Peavy and it was a picture-perfect SoCal day, as well. David Ortiz was taking BP with an aluminum bat, too. Good times. If you haven’t made it to Petco, you should put it on your list. Just an absolutely gem of a ballpark and the surrounding area is amazing as well. Yes, it is a beautiful ballpark. The best way to get there is to take the ‘coaster’ (local commuter train), which lets you off walking distance to the ballpark. The SDPD keeps the homeless, panhandlers, drug addicts away from the stadium (different than the old Tiger stadium), so the walk is safe. Parking is tough there like many downtown stadiums. KC Royal’s stadium has to be the best parking and exit as Chiefs and Royal stadiums are side by side and sit in a huge area between two freeways for great access. I loved seeing Red Sox games in Royal stadium as the Red Sox won more often than not. Wow, times have changed since the 1970s and 1980s, when I used to see games there, as the AL West (only 2 divisions) with the George Brett led Royals were always neck in neck with the A’s for the AL West division title…. It is very, very hard to image that now.
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Post by incandenza on May 20, 2023 14:59:52 GMT -5
Devers finally passed Duvall yesterday on the Red Sox WAR leaderboard.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,582
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Post by radiohix on May 20, 2023 15:52:05 GMT -5
Without looking at the O-Swings%, P/PA..etc, it seems to me that thereâs 3 types of hitters up and down the lineup in terms of the quality of the at bats (regardless of the outcome): Elite: Turner, Refsnyder, Yoshida, Casas Good: Verdugo, Valdez, Reyes, Duran Mediocre: Devers, Wong, Kiké, McGuire
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Post by awalkinthepark on May 20, 2023 16:16:05 GMT -5
Without looking at the O-Swings%, P/PA..etc, it seems to me that thereâs 3 types of hitters up and down the lineup in terms of the quality of the at bats (regardless of the outcome): Elite: Turner, Refsnyder, Yoshida, Casas Good: Verdugo, Valdez, Reyes, Duran Mediocre: Devers, Wong, Kiké, McGuire If you are talking purely control of the strike zone, swing and miss, etc...Verdugo absolutely belongs in the elite category. His eye and contact rates are his best traits.
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Post by bosoxnation on May 20, 2023 16:48:18 GMT -5
Devers finally passed Duvall yesterday on the Red Sox WAR leaderboard. Im going to the game tomorrow and the worst 3 WAR players on the team will all be STARTING!!! AHHHHHH
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Post by marrcus on May 20, 2023 17:04:51 GMT -5
Devers is likely prompted by being back around his friend X but it would be great to see him really mash for this west coast swing in particular and carry the team for a week.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,646
Member is Online
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Post by cdj on May 20, 2023 17:57:15 GMT -5
Verdugo 9 Yoshida DH Casas 3 Devers 5 Duran 8 Tapia 7 Hernandez 6 Valdez 4 Wong 2
3-hole Casas! Wong again catches Sale.
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Post by wildsox on May 20, 2023 21:12:41 GMT -5
Let’s go!
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Post by bluechip on May 20, 2023 21:15:53 GMT -5
Just missed the homer.
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Post by bluechip on May 20, 2023 21:16:31 GMT -5
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 20, 2023 21:22:19 GMT -5
Watched the game this morning, Devers was crushing it. Came to the game thread and saw 9 pages and thought it would be a great read. Then i read the first 4 pages of posts and, no, it wasn't. Good Lord, too much serious point / counterpoint that had nothing to do with the game. Mods...you should squash that when it gets out of hand like it did. Let's leave the game thread for the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. Give us some red meat. Cuz the thread was up for a day and a half before the game started. Just skip to the timestamp for the start of the game if that's what you're looking for. Fair point...but still.......LOL
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 20, 2023 21:22:59 GMT -5
big power nap might allow me to watch this whole game...i doubt it, but it is in play.
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Post by wildsox on May 20, 2023 21:23:18 GMT -5
Masa just got under that.
Making the pitcher work again already. I like it
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