|
Post by wOBA Fett on May 13, 2024 18:52:36 GMT -5
Want to see the best pitching prospects? Sort by Ks on college baseball pitching stats and you'll get the top guys I would like to invite you all to take a rest on the Ryan Johnson love seat, where we'll enjoy his goofy arm action This guy is my pick for our 2nd round pick In an unusual look for a starter, Johnson uses his low-80s slider nearly half the time, but it's a weapon with plenty of lateral movement and he locates it well. His fastball can hit 100 mph and usually parks at 92-96 with arm-side run, though it doesn't dodge as many bats as might be expected. He has added an upper-80s cutter this spring and trusts it more than his upper-70s curveball and his fading mid-80s changeup, which are both fringy offerings
|
|
|
Post by jdb on May 14, 2024 17:33:50 GMT -5
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,531
|
Post by nomar on May 14, 2024 18:25:42 GMT -5
I’m against drafting Cam Smith. A 17.8% K% translates to mid 20s in pro ball and a .268 ISO at Florida State is nothing special at all. I have a hard time seeing his bat being good enough for 3B. Hes having a great year but his BABIP is out of control and he’s simply not the power hitter he’s made out to be in game.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 14, 2024 19:47:54 GMT -5
I’m against drafting Cam Smith. A 17.8% K% translates to mid 20s in pro ball and a .268 ISO at Florida State is nothing special at all. I have a hard time seeing his bat being good enough for 3B. Hes having a great year but his BABIP is out of control and he’s simply not the power hitter he’s made out to be in game. That feels like a whole hell of a lot of projection with very minimal information.
|
|
|
Post by ixnayexxus on May 14, 2024 20:11:34 GMT -5
Unfair comparison aside, I've been hearing a lot of chatter about this kid lately; projected 5 tool player who also doubles as a track star.
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on May 15, 2024 7:40:36 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on May 15, 2024 7:57:43 GMT -5
What's King Tibbs III ? Seriously, this guy is Mister Tibbs. I'm all for drafting him.
|
|
|
Post by rismith on May 15, 2024 9:00:12 GMT -5
I agree with the general rule of take the best player available....but if there isnt a clear answer to that question, does a college guy like Tibbs that is most likely a clear corner outfielder and possible 1B who hits lefty really make sense given our system? You have Duran, Wilyer, and Anthony lined up with Teel, Mayer, Casas, Devers, etc in the projected future. Just feels like a Seaver King or other bat that may be very close in terms of value and ability but also offers positional flexibility and a righty profile would make more sense. Just a thought.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 6,641
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on May 15, 2024 9:10:46 GMT -5
I agree with the general rule of take the best player available....but if there isnt a clear answer to that question, does a college guy like Tibbs that is most likely a clear corner outfielder and possible 1B who hits lefty really make sense given our system? You have Duran, Wilyer, and Anthony lined up with Teel, Mayer, Casas, Devers, etc in the projected future. Just feels like a Seaver King or other bat that may be very close in terms of value and ability but also offers positional flexibility and a righty profile would make more sense. Just a thought. Some of the upside in taking Tibbs is that from what I've read he is a possible underslot signing in the 1st round which would leave them extra money to play with later in the draft, not saying that is necessarily my preference it would depend on how the board plays out. I can get behind the idea if the top 10 guys are all off the board though.
|
|
|
Post by 0ap0 on May 15, 2024 9:38:06 GMT -5
What's King Tibbs III ? Seriously, this guy is Mister Tibbs. I'm all for drafting him. Tribs?
|
|
|
Post by wOBA Fett on May 15, 2024 11:57:15 GMT -5
I agree with the general rule of take the best player available....but if there isnt a clear answer to that question, does a college guy like Tibbs that is most likely a clear corner outfielder and possible 1B who hits lefty really make sense given our system? You have Duran, Wilyer, and Anthony lined up with Teel, Mayer, Casas, Devers, etc in the projected future. Just feels like a Seaver King or other bat that may be very close in terms of value and ability but also offers positional flexibility and a righty profile would make more sense. Just a thought. I'd bet good money the first three picks this year are all pitchers to balance out the system. Breslow only sought pitchers in trades and I'd be shocked if he went away from this approach with his early draft picks this season. The perfect 1st round pick is one of the T4 college pitchers because they should be close to MLB ready within a year after Teel, Anthony and Meyer make their debut. If none of the T4 college pitchers are available, I can see them pivoting to an under slot college arm and drafting an over slot prep arm in the 2nd and 3rd
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 6,641
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on May 15, 2024 12:14:57 GMT -5
I agree with the general rule of take the best player available....but if there isnt a clear answer to that question, does a college guy like Tibbs that is most likely a clear corner outfielder and possible 1B who hits lefty really make sense given our system? You have Duran, Wilyer, and Anthony lined up with Teel, Mayer, Casas, Devers, etc in the projected future. Just feels like a Seaver King or other bat that may be very close in terms of value and ability but also offers positional flexibility and a righty profile would make more sense. Just a thought. I'd bet good money the first three picks this year are all pitchers to balance out the system. Breslow only sought pitchers in trades and I'd be shocked if he went away from this approach with his early draft picks this season. The perfect 1st round pick is one of the T4 college pitchers because they should be close to MLB ready within a year after Teel, Anthony and Meyer make their debut. If none of the T4 college pitchers are available, I can see them pivoting to an under slot college arm and drafting an over slot prep arm in the 2nd and 3rd I think that would be a losing bet, it would be a really bad idea IMO for the Sox to pigeonhole themselves into saying we're taking pitchers with our top 3 picks under any circumstances. I could see it happening if the board falls a certain way but it would be a poor idea for the org to force it and I have no reason to think that Breslow and Co. would operate this way.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on May 15, 2024 12:36:50 GMT -5
I'd bet good money the first three picks this year are all pitchers to balance out the system. Breslow only sought pitchers in trades and I'd be shocked if he went away from this approach with his early draft picks this season. The perfect 1st round pick is one of the T4 college pitchers because they should be close to MLB ready within a year after Teel, Anthony and Meyer make their debut. If none of the T4 college pitchers are available, I can see them pivoting to an under slot college arm and drafting an over slot prep arm in the 2nd and 3rd I think that would be a losing bet, it would be a really bad idea IMO for the Sox to pigeonhole themselves into saying we're taking pitchers with our top 3 picks under any circumstances. I could see it happening if the board falls a certain way but it would be a poor idea for the org to force it and I have no reason to think that Breslow and Co. would operate this way. I'm also not sure I'd agree the system is all that unbalanced anymore, anyways. 4 of the top 10,13 of the top 30, and 31 of the top 60 are pitchers, so it's definitely a little hitter-oriented, but not extremely so. Also, when the Big Three inevitably graduate in the next year or so, you could make an argument the orientation tilts a little in the other direction. The headliners of the system are all hitters to be sure, but I don't think that's something you make such a narrow-minded decision on in terms of drafting.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,603
|
Post by radiohix on May 15, 2024 12:39:38 GMT -5
Cam Smith is my pick for 2024 Draft
|
|
|
Post by wOBA Fett on May 15, 2024 12:48:48 GMT -5
I'd bet good money the first three picks this year are all pitchers to balance out the system. Breslow only sought pitchers in trades and I'd be shocked if he went away from this approach with his early draft picks this season. The perfect 1st round pick is one of the T4 college pitchers because they should be close to MLB ready within a year after Teel, Anthony and Meyer make their debut. If none of the T4 college pitchers are available, I can see them pivoting to an under slot college arm and drafting an over slot prep arm in the 2nd and 3rd I think that would be a losing bet, it would be a really bad idea IMO for the Sox to pigeonhole themselves into saying we're taking pitchers with our top 3 picks under any circumstances. I could see it happening if the board falls a certain way but it would be a poor idea for the org to force it and I have no reason to think that Breslow and Co. would operate this way. The Sox won't "pigeonhole" themselves into pitching, but end up drafting BPA from a draft board using data that favors pitchers instead of the Bloom data that favored hitters. Breslow and the driveline guys likely have substantial data on the pitching prospects that moves guys further up the draft board then they would have been under the previous FO (like induced vertical break).
|
|
|
Post by wOBA Fett on May 15, 2024 12:55:55 GMT -5
I think that would be a losing bet, it would be a really bad idea IMO for the Sox to pigeonhole themselves into saying we're taking pitchers with our top 3 picks under any circumstances. I could see it happening if the board falls a certain way but it would be a poor idea for the org to force it and I have no reason to think that Breslow and Co. would operate this way. I'm also not sure I'd agree the system is all that unbalanced anymore, anyways. 4 of the top 10,13 of the top 30, and 31 of the top 60 are pitchers, so it's definitely a little hitter-oriented, but not extremely so. Also, when the Big Three inevitably graduate in the next year or so, you could make an argument the orientation tilts a little in the other direction. The headliners of the system are all hitters to be sure, but I don't think that's something you make such a narrow-minded decision on in terms of drafting. I still think the system is generally unbalanced because there players with the most upside are all hitters (even after the Big 3) and none of the pitchers in the system show #1/#2 starter potential, which you are more likely to get at the top of the draft.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 6,641
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on May 15, 2024 13:06:15 GMT -5
I think that would be a losing bet, it would be a really bad idea IMO for the Sox to pigeonhole themselves into saying we're taking pitchers with our top 3 picks under any circumstances. I could see it happening if the board falls a certain way but it would be a poor idea for the org to force it and I have no reason to think that Breslow and Co. would operate this way. The Sox won't "pigeonhole" themselves into pitching, but end up drafting BPA from a draft board using data that favors pitchers instead of the Bloom data that favored hitters. Breslow and the driveline guys likely have substantial data on the pitching prospects that moves guys further up the draft board then they would have been under the previous FO (like induced vertical break). I think you're putting too much stock into the Bloom vs Breslow board/data. The amateur scouts are probably much the same today as they were last season. I doubt their overall strategy will be all that much different than what we've seen the past few years.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,531
|
Post by nomar on May 15, 2024 13:42:24 GMT -5
I’m against drafting Cam Smith. A 17.8% K% translates to mid 20s in pro ball and a .268 ISO at Florida State is nothing special at all. I have a hard time seeing his bat being good enough for 3B. Hes having a great year but his BABIP is out of control and he’s simply not the power hitter he’s made out to be in game. That feels like a whole hell of a lot of projection with very minimal information. Haha I agree and clearly there’s a lot of smart people who love him. If the Red Sox do draft him, I’d hope they have a plan to fix his launch angle because if he’s hitting the ball hard consistently but has a .268 ISO, that means he’s hitting a lot of ground balls.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on May 15, 2024 14:36:54 GMT -5
I saw a mock that had us drafting Trey Yesavage. How yall feel about him? I love the name big guy 6 foot 4.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 6,641
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on May 15, 2024 14:46:17 GMT -5
I saw a mock that had us drafting Trey Yesavage. How yall feel about him? I love the name big guy 6 foot 4. In my mostly uninformed opinion which consists of some scouting reports/write-ups and a peak at his #s, I would be all for Yesavage. I do like the idea of picking one of the better college arms available should one fall and he's generally around the top 4-5 in this draft from what I've seen.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on May 15, 2024 15:27:51 GMT -5
I saw a mock that had us drafting Trey Yesavage. How yall feel about him? I love the name big guy 6 foot 4. In my mostly uninformed opinion which consists of some scouting reports/write-ups and a peak at his #s, I would be all for Yesavage. I do like the idea of picking one of the better college arms available should one fall and he's generally around the top 4-5 in this draft from what I've seen. yes I personally would love to see someone of this profile looks like is only downfall last year was his fastball control. His slider looks electric but 4 plus pitches from a 6 foot 4 starter always gets me excited. I see YeSavage is ranked 11th on MLB as of 5/3 so i can see it happening. Also seeing a few Vance Honeycutt and Seaver King. Honeycutt looks like a STUD. GG type CF with 25 homer potential. RHH is something im all for as well. Seaver King i have no idea about.
|
|
|
Post by 1toolplayer on May 15, 2024 15:27:54 GMT -5
I saw a mock that had us drafting Trey Yesavage. How yall feel about him? I love the name big guy 6 foot 4. He's been a popular name around here for most of the college season, and a yes from me, dawg.
|
|
|
Post by bentossaurus on May 16, 2024 4:40:05 GMT -5
I saw a mock that had us drafting Trey Yesavage. How yall feel about him? I love the name big guy 6 foot 4. In my mostly uninformed opinion which consists of some scouting reports/write-ups and a peak at his #s, I would be all for Yesavage. I do like the idea of picking one of the better college arms available should one fall and he's generally around the top 4-5 in this draft from what I've seen. I know he's been ranked pretty highly and around our pick, but being honest, I'm not very enthusiastic about him. His ceiling seems to be a mid-rotation starter, which I realise would be a win for any draft pick.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on May 16, 2024 7:04:12 GMT -5
I do think we need to come to the realization that pick 12 in a below average draft will probably have some warts and or risk attached. Strikeout % might not be ideal, mid rotation ceiling with RP risk or good bat but where do you play him?
Catching up to Laws mock this morning it looks like a lot of teams in the top 10 are interested in Konnor Griffin.
|
|
|
Post by soxin8 on May 16, 2024 15:44:23 GMT -5
I do think we need to come to the realization that pick 12 in a below average draft will probably have some warts and or risk attached. Strikeout % might not be ideal, mid rotation ceiling with RP risk or good bat but where do you play him? Catching up to Laws mock this morning it looks like a lot of teams in the top 10 are interested in Konnor Griffin. Thanks for the heads up on the new mock. www.nytimes.com/athletic/5490480/2024/05/15/mlb-mock-draft-2024-travis-bazzana-charlie-condon/Law has the Angels looking to cut a deal with Yesavage at 8. He also said Tibbs is a possibility. 9 Pirates Montgomery 10 Nationals Griffin 11 Tigers Rainer 12 Sox Tibbs 13 Giants Caminiti 14 Cubs Brecht 15 Mariners King Edit: I should have known vermont already posted this. Honeycutt is out of the top 30 for Law. Compares him to Jud Fabian. In the comments section, Keith believes the Sox are still not interested in HS pitchers in round 1. And as you can tell from his mock, he also believes the Sox won't necessarily reach for a college pitcher there.
|
|