SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by redsoxpride34 on Sept 7, 2023 10:30:23 GMT -5
Bellinger is a guy I personally am not interested in, at all. He’s come a long way to get back from the mess he was, but Wrigley Field has been very kind to him. Seen him drop quite a few into the netting this year that I’m pretty confident would be outs in most ballparks. Baseballsavant backs you up there - he's had 24 HRs but only 20.2 expected HRs. Also 20 expected in Yankee Stadium and only 17 in Fenway. Ya I don't think Bellinger makes much sense given that we already have too many lefty hitters. What this line-up really needs is a middle of the order righty power bat. Someone like Pete Alonso would be great but with the current roster construction I'm not sure how we'd fit another DH/1B in unless someone like Yoshida is dealt. Perhaps if we have Rafaella in CF and Verdugo in RF providing elite d then we could live with Yoshida in LF. Not sure why so many people are writing off Verdugo for next season when he's been one of the best defensive RF in the game this year. As we all know, playing RF in fenway is not easy so I for one think he has alot of value to this team. Duran is really a LF, Yoshida LF/DH, Abreu LF/RF and Rafaella CF.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 7, 2023 11:29:49 GMT -5
If they wanted a Kiermaier type wouldn't they have just kept Bader? Kiermaier is a LHH vs Bader being a RHH so if they want to balance out the right vs left I could see them preferring Kiermaier. The Yankee offense is so meh they need a big bat or two. Their lineup has been thin for awhile. I sometimes wonder how they win more often than I would think they would.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,209
|
Post by cdj on Sept 7, 2023 12:27:40 GMT -5
Kiermaier is a LHH vs Bader being a RHH so if they want to balance out the right vs left I could see them preferring Kiermaier. The Yankee offense is so meh they need a big bat or two. Their lineup has been thin for awhile. I sometimes wonder how they win more often than I would think they would. Judge is their entire lineup and he missed a ton of time, the fact they’re .500 is remarkable It’s definitely the worst yankee lineup of my lifetime
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Sept 7, 2023 12:31:48 GMT -5
Kiermaier is a LHH vs Bader being a RHH so if they want to balance out the right vs left I could see them preferring Kiermaier. The Yankee offense is so meh they need a big bat or two. Their lineup has been thin for awhile. I sometimes wonder how they win more often than I would think they would. I'd be plenty happy if their decision is to try and just throw money at it to fix the lineup. Easy to say as a watcher of baseball who obviously isn't a Yankees fan but seems to me their best course of action would be to keep the check book closed to any sort of long term mega deal and hope any lineup improvement comes from their young guys like Volpe, Dominguez and Wells, while bolstering a position or two with short term deals. Something tells me the fans in the bronx would be a little up in arms if they did take a bit of a page out of Blooms book and opt for shorter term contracts to try and improve the roster.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
|
Post by jimoh on Sept 7, 2023 12:36:57 GMT -5
The revised batting order; 1. LF-Jarren Durran (L) 2. 2B-battle it out between Pablo Reyes (R) and Urias (R) 3. 3B-Devers (L) 4. 1B-Casas (L)- 5. RF-Bellinger (L)6. DH-Masatake Yoshida (L) 7. SS-Story (R) 8. C-Connor Wong (R) 9. CF-Ceddanne Rafaele (R) [...] There is almost no amount of money I would be unwilling to bet that the Red Sox will not start the year with LHH batting 1, 3, 4, 5, and 6 (with a weakish hitter batting second).
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 7, 2023 15:34:45 GMT -5
The Yankee offense is so meh they need a big bat or two. Their lineup has been thin for awhile. I sometimes wonder how they win more often than I would think they would. I'd be plenty happy if their decision is to try and just throw money at it to fix the lineup. Easy to say as a watcher of baseball who obviously isn't a Yankees fan but seems to me their best course of action would be to keep the check book closed to any sort of long term mega deal and hope any lineup improvement comes from their young guys like Volpe, Dominguez and Wells, while bolstering a position or two with short term deals. Something tells me the fans in the bronx would be a little up in arms if they did take a bit of a page out of Blooms book and opt for shorter term contracts to try and improve the roster. I didnt realize that Dominguez isnt quite the disappointment I heard he was. Looking at him minor league numbers they're not overwhelming but he has excellent plate discipline and his numbers are being put up at such a young age. I'm back to thinking that he has stardom ahead of him. It's just a question of how quickly? Still, the Yankees could use another OF. Maybe spending on Bellinger only sinks their budget deeper but I'd think they want to hedge their bets other than relying too heavily on Volpe and Dominguez.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Sept 7, 2023 15:41:47 GMT -5
I'd be plenty happy if their decision is to try and just throw money at it to fix the lineup. Easy to say as a watcher of baseball who obviously isn't a Yankees fan but seems to me their best course of action would be to keep the check book closed to any sort of long term mega deal and hope any lineup improvement comes from their young guys like Volpe, Dominguez and Wells, while bolstering a position or two with short term deals. Something tells me the fans in the bronx would be a little up in arms if they did take a bit of a page out of Blooms book and opt for shorter term contracts to try and improve the roster. I didnt realize that Dominguez isnt quite the disappointment I heard he was. Looking at him minit league numbers they're not overwhelming but he has excellent plate discipline and his numbers are being put up at such a young age. I'm back to thinking that he has stardom ahead of him. It's just a question of how quickly? Still, the Yankees could use another OF. Maybe spending on Bellinger only sinks their budget deeper but I'd think they want to hedge their bets other than relying too heavily on Volpe and Dominguez. It's hard to envision them just sitting on their hands doing nothing big this offseason, the fans are liable to bring out pitchforks if that were to happen so you certainly could be correct. Personally I don't fully buy Bellinger's bounce back. He was dreadful for two full seasons so much so that the Dodgers didn't even tender him a contract at roughly what he got paid this year. I don't think he turns into a complete pumpkin but I don't see him wRC+ing in the 140s again either. With his versatility and defense even dropping to the 110-120 range there still offers good value but he's just not a guy who really scares me so if he's a member of the 2024 Yankees lineup I don't really think he's moving the needle all that much. So if they want to sink that payroll even deeper by all means I hope they go for it. Then again the Sox still have plenty of work to do on their end lest they want to be battling the Yankees again next year just to see which one doesn't finish last in the division, which sadly they still are in a battle for this season which is probably about all I'm really realistically rooting for at this point from the overall team standpoint.
|
|
|
Post by dirtdog on Sept 7, 2023 19:19:02 GMT -5
I didnt realize that Dominguez isnt quite the disappointment I heard he was. Looking at him minit league numbers they're not overwhelming but he has excellent plate discipline and his numbers are being put up at such a young age. I'm back to thinking that he has stardom ahead of him. It's just a question of how quickly? Still, the Yankees could use another OF. Maybe spending on Bellinger only sinks their budget deeper but I'd think they want to hedge their bets other than relying too heavily on Volpe and Dominguez. It's hard to envision them just sitting on their hands doing nothing big this offseason, the fans are liable to bring out pitchforks if that were to happen so you certainly could be correct. Personally I don't fully buy Bellinger's bounce back. He was dreadful for two full seasons so much so that the Dodgers didn't even tender him a contract at roughly what he got paid this year. I don't think he turns into a complete pumpkin but I don't see him wRC+ing in the 140s again either. With his versatility and defense even dropping to the 110-120 range there still offers good value but he's just not a guy who really scares me so if he's a member of the 2024 Yankees lineup I don't really think he's moving the needle all that much. So if they want to sink that payroll even deeper by all means I hope they go for it. Then again the Sox still have plenty of work to do on their end lest they want to be battling the Yankees again next year just to see which one doesn't finish last in the division, which sadly they still are in a battle for this season which is probably about all I'm really realistically rooting for at this point from the overall team standpoint. Sure dont. The MFY are welcome to him.
|
|
|
Post by nonothing on Sept 7, 2023 19:35:33 GMT -5
The revised batting order; 1. LF-Jarren Durran (L) 2. 2B-battle it out between Pablo Reyes (R) and Urias (R) 3. 3B-Devers (L) 4. 1B-Casas (L)- 5. RF-Bellinger (L)6. DH-Masatake Yoshida (L) 7. SS-Story (R) 8. C-Connor Wong (R) 9. CF-Ceddanne Rafaele (R) [...] There is almost no amount of money I would be unwilling to bet that the Red Sox will not start the year with LHH batting 1, 3, 4, 5, and 6 (with a weakish hitter batting second). That's not likely to happen at all. It is very unlikely they don't hit a minimum of 2 righties within first 6 in lineup. Even when they have gone very LH this year, they have had 2 RH in top 6. Cora has trotted out L, L, R, L, L, R, L, L, R at least a couple times fairly recently I believe. Also -- it isn't wise to bet without having limits. There is no bet I would make that would have an unlimited denomination. But I would simply say that I strongly suspect 2 RH at least in top 6 most of the time.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 7, 2023 20:57:33 GMT -5
Not only does it make sense but is also very likely. Let Turner walk and even Duvall. To offset that one other option would be signing Bellinger whose only 28 and appears to be much closer to his MVP season than the player since then until this year. He's not ideal since he also is a lefty hitter too, that said hear me out. He's a CF'er whose glove is about average in CF, slide him over to RF. Abreu backs him up. in CF is Rafaela with Bellinger backing him up. In LF is Durran/ Abreu. Refsnyder remain the 5th option in the OF. Bellinger can back-up 1B should Casas be injured. Turner and Duvall make about $15M plus so CB makes about $17M this year and likely to recieve a solid raise say $24 ish. So he adds about $9M to the positional players on the roster. Sign an ace, assume $30M/yr and a mid rotation starter assume $20M./yr and you add $50M/ to the rotation or about $59M to next year roster. This team would be instantly a playoff contender maybe more and I don't see a roster spot blocked as eventually Story will move to second when Mayer is ready (late 2025?) and he'd block Yorke, actually the Sox owe a $5M buyout so should Yorke etc force their way onto the roster the Sox could easily use that buyout option. Add a trade with Verdugo (1 yr left) and Crawford (5 years) for a #3 type with 2 years left of arbitration eligible or something as close to that as you can. The revised batting order; 1. LF-Jarren Durran (L) 2. 2B-battle it out between Pablo Reyes (R) and Urias (R) 3. 3B-Devers (L) 4. 1B-Casas (L)- 5. RF-Bellinger (L)6. DH-Masatake Yoshida (L) 7. SS-Story (R) 8. C-Connor Wong (R) 9. CF-Ceddanne Rafaele (R) Bench OF option-1 Abreu, option-2-Refsnyder Bench IF- 1 which ever of Reyes or Urias loses the 2B battle. Urias can back up 3b and more. Rafaela-SS. Bellinger backs up 1B Bench C-MCGuire SP-1-Free Agent signing (ex. Yamamoto) SP-2 or 3- Bello SP-3 or 2-(ex Nola/Snell/Montgomery types) SP-4- (trade SP whose about to enter arb-2) for Verdugo and Crawford, the best upgrade you can get on Crawford. Wildcard on salary team impact but likely be less overall cost. SP-5-Sale-whose last year with the Sox could very well be 2024 as the team has a club option of $20M for 2025. Wikelman Gonzalez should be ready by then. Bullpen similar to this year but Houck, Pivetta and Whitlock go to the pen full time until the inevitable with one ready for another Sale injuries or injuries to others too. Alot more pitching depth especially to the starting rotation which wether or not you realize it was the achilles heal of this team. It was somewhat obvious before the season to so lets not kid ourselves here. So even with these adds they'd still be well below the CBT AND after the 24 season they'd shed Sales contract. This off-season is the off-season to add several key free agents. AA will be loaded with several prospects with several likely to arrive in Boston in 2025 at various parts of the season. Everything is lining up perfectly to take-on a few expensive contracts this off-season and still retain roster flexibility. (at some point they should trade for an impactful right handed batter but remain vigilent until the fit is very good). This team above would have no real weakness other than ideally you'd have a RH heart of the line-up bat in there to break up having to many LH batters in a row. That's alot better than having bad defense and poor starting pitcher, offense should be about the same BUT have higher upside than this years. I've seen Bellinger get predictions north of 200M for a contract. No thanks on that. So I seen a similar article however it was just pure speculation. There are several really good ideas on why that speculation is suspect and it would the last few season before this year. I think he'll get around $24/$25 million/year and at 28 YO I'd go as many as 6 years. If he gets $200M, I'd agree with you but I'm not sold he'll get that much.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Sept 7, 2023 21:01:42 GMT -5
I've seen Bellinger get predictions north of 200M for a contract. No thanks on that. So I seen a similar article however it was just pure speculation. There are several really good ideas on why that speculation is suspect and it would the last few season before this year. I think he'll get around $24/$25 million/year and at 28 YO I'd go as many as 6 years. If he gets $200M, I'd agree with you but I'm not sold he'll get that much. Even at 6 years at or around 25 mil seems too much for my liking. He's not a great fit for the lineup, they don't really need another LHH OF. Perhaps if they deal Verdugo or something but even then I just don't love the fit at big money.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 7, 2023 21:03:28 GMT -5
The revised batting order; 1. LF-Jarren Durran (L) 2. 2B-battle it out between Pablo Reyes (R) and Urias (R) 3. 3B-Devers (L) 4. 1B-Casas (L)- 5. RF-Bellinger (L)6. DH-Masatake Yoshida (L) 7. SS-Story (R) 8. C-Connor Wong (R) 9. CF-Ceddanne Rafaele (R) [...] There is almost no amount of money I would be unwilling to bet that the Red Sox will not start the year with LHH batting 1, 3, 4, 5, and 6 (with a weakish hitter batting second). And there is supposed to be a counter thought proposed otherwise that's not constructive in any way shape or form. We already are left hand dominant and an impactful batter who solves all your other problems is an impactful batter who solves all your other problems AND I also mentioned buying time until the right fit comes along so you can trade for one.
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 7, 2023 21:06:10 GMT -5
So I seen a similar article however it was just pure speculation. There are several really good ideas on why that speculation is suspect and it would the last few season before this year. I think he'll get around $24/$25 million/year and at 28 YO I'd go as many as 6 years. If he gets $200M, I'd agree with you but I'm not sold he'll get that much. Even at 6 years at or around 25 mil seems too much for my liking. He's not a great fit for the lineup, they don't really need another LHH OF. Perhaps if they deal Verdugo or something but even then I just don't love the fit at big money. I did actually propose to trade Verdugo as he only has a year left on his arbitration years and he's not part of the answer.
|
|
|
Post by nonothing on Sept 7, 2023 21:57:43 GMT -5
There is almost no amount of money I would be unwilling to bet that the Red Sox will not start the year with LHH batting 1, 3, 4, 5, and 6 (with a weakish hitter batting second). And there is supposed to be a counter thought proposed otherwise that's not constructive in any way shape or form. We already are left hand dominant and an impactful batter who solves all your other problems is an impactful batter who solves all your other problems AND I also mentioned buying time until the right fit comes along so you can trade for one. Oh, I missed jimoh's not in there. How about this jodyreidnichols? If Rafaela makes the team and hits at top: 1) Rafaela-R (CF) 2) Devers-L (3B) 3) Turner-R (DH) 4) Casas-L (1B) 5) Duvall-R (most of the time) (RF/LF) 6) Duran, Verdugo or Yoshida-L (RF/LF) 7) Story-R (SS) 8) Wong/McGuire-R/L (C) 9) Reyes/Urias/Valdez-R/L (2B) Lineup varies between 6 LH and 6 RH, with at least 3 of other handedness depending on matchup. Bench: 1-Second C above, 2-Refsnyder-R, 3-one of 2B above, 4-one of Duran, Verdugo or Yoshida. Not on team: one of 2B above optioned to start yr, one of Duran, Verdugo or Yoshida is traded, Abreu optioned to start yr Without Rafaela at top: 1) Duran or Verdugo-L (OF) 2) Devers-L (3B) 3) Turner-R (DH) 4) Casas-L (1B) 5) Duvall-R (most of the time) (OF) 6) Duran, Verdugo or Yoshida-L (OF) 7) Story-R (SS) 8) Wong/McGuire-R/L (C) 9) Reyes/Urias/Valdez-R/L (2B) Bench: 1-Second C above, 2-Refsnyder-R, 3-one of 2B above, 4-Abreu-L. Not on team: one of 2B above optioned to start yr, one of Duran, Verdugo or Yoshida is traded, Rafaela optioned to start yr 7 and 9 swap if Story really hits poorly, and he could get replaced by another MI above or from outside org if he can't get bat back. But they will try very hard before going in another direction at SS. If Rafaela is not starting CF, maybe they could play him at SS, but I think this is unlikely because if he can hit, I would see them putting him at his position of greatest defensive value to team=CF for him. I think Turner/Duvall fit well and are likely to be re-signed. Without them, the offense is not longer a plus unit, and we have no true strength to the team other than perhaps the bullpen and see OF discussion next. But Duvall is worth much more to this lineup as a hitter than Masa (defensive value differential on top of that), and Duvall will cost less than Masa Sox could win a World Series with this lineup. Defense: OF: Excellent if Yoshida is traded (Duran/Duvall/Verdugo w/ bench of Ref/Abreu) to Spectacular = Could be among top defensive OFs in majors if starters are Duran or Duvall-LF/Rafaela-CF/Verdugo-RF = best for our pitchers). Could still be quite good w/ Rafaela in CF if Duggie is in RF, even with Yoshida in LF, but more just good/ok w/ Yoshida in LF, Rafaela in CF, but Duran or Duvall in RF instead of Duggie. Bad if Rafaela is not in CF and Yoshida is in LF. Ideally Yoshida is not playing in OF. As somebody interested in winning who thinks the offense will not be the weak point of the team, I heavily favor a 2024 lineup with primary CF-Rafaela (if he can maintain OBP of *at least* .280 hidden in 9-hole) and RF-Duggie and also prefer Duran or Duvall in LF to Masa. I think OF defense is the team's cheapest and most accessible way to improve it's pitching. (And obviously the hope is Rafaela develops into more than the minimum here. We will need a greater sample size than we get this year to know - but his ability to make solid contact swinging at most anything is unique - even if his proclivity for swinging at everything is equally so - jury out). For the defense, I bet despite metrics published Rafaela/Duggie combo plus lack of Masa in LF gives us an extra out every two games (like 80 OAA) -- not just a few a year per spot. I think the defensive part of the lineup, especially given our pitching weakness, is critical to being able to compete at a high level next year. C: Ok 1B/3B: Not so good MI: Good enough if Story sticks at SS, though Valdez should not start at 2B unless he and/or Casas improve D substantially and Rafaela makes team to improve CF defense in the middle Trade Yoshida and get pitching via trade and FA sign. Might be able to send Masa and Yorke to Guardians and shake out a 2024 MLB starter (L Allen-LHP or a righty) w/ 5+ yrs control and Arias as another option for our MI bridge to Mayer (and yes, I know he also needs stick to wake up, but he would improve our MI defense a lot and is still young/likely to improve hitting). Guardians need bats and have Rocchio ready to go in MI w/ Yorke and Masa additions would give them a chance to increase their offense without spending a ton. If they don't think Yorke is better than Brito, then send Blaze Jordan. Other prospects/cash can even out deal. Would try to get Andrew Walters-RHP from them in deal as well if we could. Go compete!
|
|
|
Post by chaimtime on Sept 8, 2023 9:50:13 GMT -5
Even at 6 years at or around 25 mil seems too much for my liking. He's not a great fit for the lineup, they don't really need another LHH OF. Perhaps if they deal Verdugo or something but even then I just don't love the fit at big money. I did actually propose to trade Verdugo as he only has a year left on his arbitration years and he's not part of the answer. I mentioned it earlier in the thread, but I don’t think Bellinger is a very good fit for Fenway, as a hitter at least. He doesn’t go the other way much, and I’ve seen him hit at least four home runs at Wrigley that would be easy fly outs at Fenway. His defense would be nice in right field, but I’m not paying the contract he’s gonna get for good right field defense. Honestly, seems like he and the Cubs are a good match. My guess is he re-signs there.
|
|
|
Post by oldfaithful2019 on Sept 8, 2023 10:14:43 GMT -5
I did actually propose to trade Verdugo as he only has a year left on his arbitration years and he's not part of the answer. I mentioned it earlier in the thread, but I don’t think Bellinger is a very good fit for Fenway, as a hitter at least. He doesn’t go the other way much, and I’ve seen him hit at least four home runs at Wrigley that would be easy fly outs at Fenway. His defense would be nice in right field, but I’m not paying the contract he’s gonna get for good right field defense. Honestly, seems like he and the Cubs are a good match. My guess is he re-signs there. Thing is we already have good defense in RF. Verdugo is not a superstar but he is also not part of problem. I think that resigning Duval would be far more beneficial as his bat plays well at Fenway and he is viable at all three OF positions. Verdugo, Rafaella, Duran and Duval, with Masa DH and OF defense is in very good hands.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Sept 8, 2023 10:52:39 GMT -5
Eno Saris Mailbag fields a question about the Red Sox D. Excerpt: "Outs Above Average, which hasn’t been around as long (as older-school metrics like Ultimate Zone Rating), has them as the third-worst since 2015, behind only the 2022 Nationals and the 2017 Mets, so there is a case that this is one of the worst defensive teams of recent times.
To some extent, we knew this would be the outcome. Adam Duvall in center, Enrique Hernández at short and Rafael Devers at third … this wasn’t going to be a good defensive team, no matter what. I’ve been surprised at how bad Jarren Duran’s routes have been, considering his physical tools. Mastaka Yoshida has been worse than expected with the glove, Tristan Casas, too (though he got poor defensive grades from many scouts), and by OAA even Christian Arroyo was a minus this year. There’s hope for the future with Marcelo Meyer and Ceddanne Rafaela, but this is who they are right now.Looking at that, and know how many of these defensive offenders are probably locked-in: Duran, though he's probably the best of the crew with his flaws and may see more time in LF if Yoshida replaces Turner, Devers and Casas. As mentioned here, Story shores up SS. Rafaela should solidify CF. But it's still looking to be messy, though not quite as messy with a healthy Story, for at least another year. You're stuck with Devers and his mental lapses and errant throws and Casas, through whom goes the vast majority of infield plays. A further negative is you'd be paying Yoshida $18M a year to be a full time DH. Out-of-the-Box idea if Yoshida does move to DH: Spend the winter transitioning Duran back to 2nd, a la Mookie at LAD (who said it took like a week to wake up those neural pathways, and he did it on the fly in MLB. Then again, he's Mookie Betts). Duran played 2nd his whole career and 30 games in A ball before some genius said, "Hey, he's wicked fast! We'll make him a CF because it'll be easy with that speed!" Put Rafaela in CF, Yoshida at DH and go get a LF. Between Rafaela and Verdugo you'll 2/3s of the OF locked-down to begin with. Duran certainly could handle LF - though the jumps may be even tougher with that angle than CF - but you could solidify 2nd base with him there and create a lock-down OF.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2023 11:33:05 GMT -5
Eno Saris Mailbag fields a question about the Red Sox D. Excerpt: "Outs Above Average, which hasnât been around as long (as older-school metrics like Ultimate Zone Rating), has them as the third-worst since 2015, behind only the 2022 Nationals and the 2017 Mets, so there is a case that this is one of the worst defensive teams of recent times.
To some extent, we knew this would be the outcome. Adam Duvall in center, Enrique Hernández at short and Rafael Devers at third ⦠this wasnât going to be a good defensive team, no matter what. Iâve been surprised at how bad Jarren Duranâs routes have been, considering his physical tools. Mastaka Yoshida has been worse than expected with the glove, Tristan Casas, too (though he got poor defensive grades from many scouts), and by OAA even Christian Arroyo was a minus this year. Thereâs hope for the future with Marcelo Meyer and Ceddanne Rafaela, but this is who they are right now. The past always seems inevitable from the perspective of the present; but none of this was a foregone conclusion. They were supposed to have Mondesi at SS and Kiké at CF/UT by May;Kiké being a disaster at SS was not something people foresaw (even those who thought be might be subpar); and Sarris even admits that Casas and Arroyo have been worse than expected. I'd add that Devers has been worse than recent seasons as well. And: this is no longer "what they are" since Kiké has been replaced by Story at SS, which is about the largest possible swing you can have at the single most important defensive position. Mookie also took like a week to become a great rightfielder after they moved him there. By contrast, the guy who has taken years just to become an adequate outfielder doesn't strike me as a great candidate to make an easy switch back to 2B; and the fact that the team that has played Franchy at 1B, Arroyo in RF, and Kiké at SS hasn't seen fit to give it a shot with Duran should probably tell us something.
In any case, I'm pretty comfortable with the 2B options now, with Urias and Valdez, and Yorke on the horizon.
|
|
rhswanzey
Veteran
Posts: 444
Member is Online
|
Post by rhswanzey on Sept 9, 2023 10:44:48 GMT -5
I would give serious thought to playing Rafaela mostly at second for a year before shifting him to center.
The outfield defense isn’t great, but it’s the infield defense that sunk the team this year. You have an acceptable starting center fielder in Duran, and a couple guys who can make cameos there.
Devers and Casas aren’t going anywhere. You hope that Devers can get away from one error spiraling into a nightmarish two weeks. A player this far into his career has to have done some mental skills counseling by now, no? Casas will continue to improve. Story finally fixes shortstop.
Second base is the golden opportunity to add defensive value to this roster, because there isn’t really anything else to do besides reducing Yoshida’s outfield exposure - which itself (IMO) is not sinking the team and, as discussed extensively, might push Turner out of town, at cost to the lineup.
Valdez requires a close and late defensive sub to justify rostering him for significant second base time. Rafaela actually complements him reasonably well on handedness and defensive skill. I see the logic in an Urias bounce back in a vacuum, but it’s a bat driven profile and it doesn’t seem like the right bet for this roster. We’ve already done enough committing to below average to averageish defenders, hoping that the bat offsets those limitations. I’ve already been wrong on Reyes, but I also remember when there were some calls for Pedro Ciriaco to enter 2013 in a major role. I’m not opposed to a reasonably clear path to rostering Reyes, but this is not a player who gets a starting job handed to him.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Sept 9, 2023 10:59:02 GMT -5
I would give serious thought to playing Rafaela mostly at second for a year before shifting him to center. The outfield defense isn’t great, but it’s the infield defense that sunk the team this year. You have an acceptable starting center fielder in Duran, and a couple guys who can make cameos there.
Devers and Casas aren’t going anywhere. You hope that Devers can get away from one error spiraling into a nightmarish two weeks. A player this far into his career has to have done some mental skills counseling by now, no? Casas will continue to improve. Story finally fixes shortstop. Second base is the golden opportunity to add defensive value to this roster, because there isn’t really anything else to do besides reducing Yoshida’s outfield exposure - which itself (IMO) is not sinking the team and, as discussed extensively, might push Turner out of town, at cost to the lineup. Valdez requires a close and late defensive sub to justify rostering him for significant second base time. Rafaela actually complements him reasonably well on handedness and defensive skill. I see the logic in an Urias bounce back in a vacuum, but it’s a bat driven profile and it doesn’t seem like the right bet for this roster. We’ve already done enough committing to below average to averageish defenders, hoping that the bat offsets those limitations. I’ve already been wrong on Reyes, but I also remember when there were some calls for Pedro Ciriaco to enter 2013 in a major role. I’m not opposed to a reasonably clear path to rostering Reyes, but this is not a player who gets a starting job handed to him. Duran is the worst (or right among the worst) defensive full time centerfielder in MLB. I don't know that he's really an acceptable solution unless he can take another step forward. Great in a corner though.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Sept 9, 2023 11:32:59 GMT -5
I was at a Durham Bulls game not too long ago and a friend introduced me to an "evaluator" from the Braves. I got to chat him up a bit and one of the questions I asked was "Why has the step from AAA to MLB been so steep in the last few years for all but the freak players?" His answer, paraphrased, "It was always a big leap, but when they got rid of short-season league, Low A has become diluted with guys who missed a half year of development that they would've gotten in short season ball. And that creates a domino effect High A is more like what Low A was and AA is something between what High A and AA were. By the time they get to AAA they're seeing some up and down guys but the prospects headed to MLB are still not as developed as they were say five years ago. A guy may rake or strike everyone out in AAA but the competition isn't quite as developed."
He also said MLB dicking around with the minor league balls, having different ones between A and AAA (and then MLB), "Sure doesn't help pitching development." And mentioned stuff about the RoboUmp zone that we've discussed that it lowers the high strike. to just above the belt, but he thought that was something that could be addressed.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Sept 9, 2023 11:42:03 GMT -5
I would give serious thought to playing Rafaela mostly at second for a year before shifting him to center. The outfield defense isn’t great, but it’s the infield defense that sunk the team this year. You have an acceptable starting center fielder in Duran, and a couple guys who can make cameos there.
Devers and Casas aren’t going anywhere. You hope that Devers can get away from one error spiraling into a nightmarish two weeks. A player this far into his career has to have done some mental skills counseling by now, no? Casas will continue to improve. Story finally fixes shortstop. Second base is the golden opportunity to add defensive value to this roster, because there isn’t really anything else to do besides reducing Yoshida’s outfield exposure - which itself (IMO) is not sinking the team and, as discussed extensively, might push Turner out of town, at cost to the lineup. Valdez requires a close and late defensive sub to justify rostering him for significant second base time. Rafaela actually complements him reasonably well on handedness and defensive skill. I see the logic in an Urias bounce back in a vacuum, but it’s a bat driven profile and it doesn’t seem like the right bet for this roster. We’ve already done enough committing to below average to averageish defenders, hoping that the bat offsets those limitations. I’ve already been wrong on Reyes, but I also remember when there were some calls for Pedro Ciriaco to enter 2013 in a major role. I’m not opposed to a reasonably clear path to rostering Reyes, but this is not a player who gets a starting job handed to him. Duran is the worst (or right among the worst) defensive full time centerfielder in MLB. I don't know that he's really an acceptable solution unless he can take another step forward. Great in a corner though. I don't think Valdez is an up-the-middle defender for any team with aspirations to compete (-5 OAA in just 39 games extrapolated to 120-150 games is south of putrid). And his offensive numbers came back to earth pretty quickly. He had a couple moments but he's an emergency second baseman at best, but really doesn't belong on any team that isn't in full tank mode. He might do better in Japan or KBO, though. Rafaela has had a better track record at virtually every level than Valdez and should be given a chance to play full-time in CF where his elite glove and superior routes make him a defensive all star at the very least.
|
|
rhswanzey
Veteran
Posts: 444
Member is Online
|
Post by rhswanzey on Sept 9, 2023 12:05:25 GMT -5
I would give serious thought to playing Rafaela mostly at second for a year before shifting him to center. The outfield defense isn’t great, but it’s the infield defense that sunk the team this year. You have an acceptable starting center fielder in Duran, and a couple guys who can make cameos there.
Devers and Casas aren’t going anywhere. You hope that Devers can get away from one error spiraling into a nightmarish two weeks. A player this far into his career has to have done some mental skills counseling by now, no? Casas will continue to improve. Story finally fixes shortstop. Second base is the golden opportunity to add defensive value to this roster, because there isn’t really anything else to do besides reducing Yoshida’s outfield exposure - which itself (IMO) is not sinking the team and, as discussed extensively, might push Turner out of town, at cost to the lineup. Valdez requires a close and late defensive sub to justify rostering him for significant second base time. Rafaela actually complements him reasonably well on handedness and defensive skill. I see the logic in an Urias bounce back in a vacuum, but it’s a bat driven profile and it doesn’t seem like the right bet for this roster. We’ve already done enough committing to below average to averageish defenders, hoping that the bat offsets those limitations. I’ve already been wrong on Reyes, but I also remember when there were some calls for Pedro Ciriaco to enter 2013 in a major role. I’m not opposed to a reasonably clear path to rostering Reyes, but this is not a player who gets a starting job handed to him. Duran is the worst (or right among the worst) defensive full time centerfielder in MLB. I don't know that he's really an acceptable solution unless he can take another step forward. Great in a corner though. He’s at 0 OAA, no? The argument that he’s less good than all other qualified centerfielders, and the argument that he’s a significant problem for the 2024 team on defense, are different arguments. If you think Rafaela is a high end fielder at any of the three up the middle positions, then you can decide whether you think Duran in CF or Urias/Valdez/Reyes/? at 2B is more of a problem for the team defense. In those terms, for me anyway, I’d just roll with Duran and fix second base, even if the bat might be inconsistent.
|
|
rhswanzey
Veteran
Posts: 444
Member is Online
|
Post by rhswanzey on Sept 9, 2023 12:09:15 GMT -5
Duran is the worst (or right among the worst) defensive full time centerfielder in MLB. I don't know that he's really an acceptable solution unless he can take another step forward. Great in a corner though. I don't think Valdez is an up-the-middle defender for any team with aspirations to compete (-5 OAA in just 39 games extrapolated to 120-150 games is south of putrid). And his offensive numbers came back to earth pretty quickly. He had a couple moments but he's an emergency second baseman at best, but really doesn't belong on any team that isn't in full tank mode. He might do better in Japan or KBO, though. Rafaela has had a better track record at virtually every level than Valdez and should be given a chance to play full-time in CF where his elite glove and superior routes make him a defensive all star at the very least. We might see an awful lot more of Valdez in the next couple weeks. To be clear - this wasn’t an argument to pencil in Valdez for a majority share of 2B playing time in 2024. It was stating that, for him to be a roster fit at all in that kind of role, you need a defensive caddy, barring significant improvement. You could theoretically do that with Valdez/Reyes, but it’s a low floor risk that the team probably doesn’t need to be taking.
|
|
|
Post by keninten on Sept 9, 2023 13:23:51 GMT -5
How was Duran at 2nd? Seems if he was average it would be a good move. It would waste his speed but if he is taking bad routes and has a weak arm I don`t see how it would hurt.
|
|
|