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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 11, 2023 16:09:03 GMT -5
I agree that in a market that has nearly exclusively starting pitching, it's time to throw cash at some top of the rotation talent, and trade to reinforce the lineup. We need a good young right fielder who can hit from the right and play good defense. Time to call the Padres and get Tatis. I am kidding, but this is fun to dream about There are rumblings that the LAA might be open to trading Trout. Any takers on that, or doesn't anyone want the back-end years of his contract? Trout could solve a lot of the RHH imbalance by himself, and if he stays in CF, Rafaela may not be Mookie Betts, but he could be Mookie defensively in RF. Then trade two of Yoshida/Verdugo/Duran/Abreu, platoon one with Rafaela, and away we go.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 11, 2023 16:17:39 GMT -5
I agree that in a market that has nearly exclusively starting pitching, it's time to throw cash at some top of the rotation talent, and trade to reinforce the lineup. We need a good young right fielder who can hit from the right and play good defense. Time to call the Padres and get Tatis. I am kidding, but this is fun to dream about There are rumblings that the LAA might be open to trading Trout. Any takers on that, or doesn't anyone want the back-end years of his contract? Trout could solve a lot of the RHH imbalance by himself, and if he stays in CF, Rafaela may not be Mookie Betts, but he could be Mookie defensively in RF. Then trade two of Yoshida/Verdugo/Duran/Abreu, platoon one with Rafaela, and away we go. I just don't trust him staying healthy enough to take on that contract and term. I'd pass.
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Post by nonothing on Sept 11, 2023 22:35:53 GMT -5
There are rumblings that the LAA might be open to trading Trout. Any takers on that, or doesn't anyone want the back-end years of his contract? Trout could solve a lot of the RHH imbalance by himself, and if he stays in CF, Rafaela may not be Mookie Betts, but he could be Mookie defensively in RF. Then trade two of Yoshida/Verdugo/Duran/Abreu, platoon one with Rafaela, and away we go. I just don't trust him staying healthy enough to take on that contract and term. I'd pass. Agree he is very unlikely to be healthy enough to make his contract anything other than an albatross. Mookie and he established a new market value for long term contracts, and that market is likely to age incredibly poorly. Not pointing to any particular player, but Trout and Judge don't look good to deliver health over the term of their contracts. They eventually become Stanton deals. The only buyer for a deal like that used to be the Yankees, and it has killed them. Not sure who will take on that role in the future. But agree 100% that the idea of Trout is the most appealing thing. The reality would be a terrible way to tear down the position we have created for ourselves. Roman Anthony is the guy for that role on our team (though LHH and guessing he is in RF w/ Raf in CF when they settle into the big league club -- *if* they do). Anthony will be affordable. And the way to win LT is affordable controllable players, not $40M/yr for guys you don't need who won't age well and you have to pay for a decade. Anthony is likely 2025 vs 2024, but 2024 moves will and should be made with an eye toward his arrival. That's why keeping Verdugo next year and then maybe QOing him for the year after make sense for a productive RF transition plan. The timing likely makes sense for team and players and keeps RF defensively sound and offensively productive. The CF transition is tougher, but if we want a human highlight reel out there, who can tremendously help the pitching staff, it is only a question of how Rafaela hits and whether they feel Duran, Abreu (and Duvall if they re-sign him) are suitable to hold the position until Sox front office feels Rafaela is ready to just be the guy (again assuming that does happen). But again, 2024 moves should avoid blocking this desired transition to Rafaela.
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Post by terriblehondo on Sept 12, 2023 9:10:36 GMT -5
If they don't think Rafaela is the guy. Why not go after Kevin K and hope Anthony keeps developing. His scouting report said he can stick in center I believe.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 12, 2023 9:27:54 GMT -5
If they don't think Rafaela is the guy. Why not go after Kevin K and hope Anthony keeps developing. His scouting report said he can stick in center I believe. Only problem with Kiermaier is he is a LHH so while an alignment of Duran/Kiermaier/Verdugo in OF sounds like it could be among the better defensive alignments in the league the lineup then only has Urias, Story and Wong as RHH. I think the onus needs to be on improving the defense one way or another so I'd be happy with getting Kiermaier but I'm not sure how likely it is.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 12, 2023 11:26:25 GMT -5
If they don't think Rafaela is the guy. Why not go after Kevin K and hope Anthony keeps developing. His scouting report said he can stick in center I believe. Only problem with Kiermaier is he is a LHH so while an alignment of Duran/Kiermaier/Verdugo in OF sounds like it could be among the better defensive alignments in the league the lineup then only has Urias, Story and Wong as RHH. I think the onus needs to be on improving the defense one way or another so I'd be happy with getting Kiermaier but I'm not sure how likely it is. QO Duvall play him against every lefty and some righties and that’s not so bad. Yoshida and Devers are still good hitters against lefties too. Maybe not ideal, but I’d take the defensive improvement for that trade off.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 12, 2023 11:29:36 GMT -5
Only problem with Kiermaier is he is a LHH so while an alignment of Duran/Kiermaier/Verdugo in OF sounds like it could be among the better defensive alignments in the league the lineup then only has Urias, Story and Wong as RHH. I think the onus needs to be on improving the defense one way or another so I'd be happy with getting Kiermaier but I'm not sure how likely it is. QO Duvall play him against every lefty and some righties and that’s not so bad. Yoshida and Devers are still good hitters against lefties too. Maybe not ideal, but I’d take the defensive improvement for that trade off. Some people think that if we lose Turner, we need a RHH backup for 1b and 3b. But Casas should not sit as much next year. Can Duvall play 1b once in a while as he did a few years ago?
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Post by terriblehondo on Sept 12, 2023 11:31:24 GMT -5
If they don't think Rafaela is the guy. Why not go after Kevin K and hope Anthony keeps developing. His scouting report said he can stick in center I believe. Only problem with Kiermaier is he is a LHH so while an alignment of Duran/Kiermaier/Verdugo in OF sounds like it could be among the better defensive alignments in the league the lineup then only has Urias, Story and Wong as RHH. I think the onus needs to be on improving the defense one way or another so I'd be happy with getting Kiermaier but I'm not sure how likely it is. The fact that they have played corner guys in CF all year doesn't make me think it is likely. But a guy can hope that maybe just maybe they can put together a solid defense up the middle at the very least.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 12, 2023 12:01:09 GMT -5
Only problem with Kiermaier is he is a LHH so while an alignment of Duran/Kiermaier/Verdugo in OF sounds like it could be among the better defensive alignments in the league the lineup then only has Urias, Story and Wong as RHH. I think the onus needs to be on improving the defense one way or another so I'd be happy with getting Kiermaier but I'm not sure how likely it is. The fact that they have played corner guys in CF all year doesn't make me think it is likely. But a guy can hope that maybe just maybe they can put together a solid defense up the middle at the very least. What I don't get, is they're out of the race at this point. They have Rafaela a guy who can bring vast improvement defensively to the 2024 roster, why is he not getting every start at CF from here on out? Use the next few weeks as an audition to see if he can hit enough to be a viable starting OFer. Maybe I'm reading something into nothing but do they not think he is an option next year to be the starting OF? I don't know it seems strange to me what they've done with his PT.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 12, 2023 12:52:07 GMT -5
QO Duvall play him against every lefty and some righties and that’s not so bad. Yoshida and Devers are still good hitters against lefties too. Maybe not ideal, but I’d take the defensive improvement for that trade off. Some people think that if we lose Turner, we need a RHH backup for 1b and 3b. But Casas should not sit as much next year. Can Duvall play 1b once in a while as he did a few years ago? Don't forget, Refsnyder can also play 1st base. Despite his slightly down year, he's still very good vs lefties (.311/.434/.396; 134 wRC+ this year).
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 12, 2023 13:14:22 GMT -5
I don’t know exactly what the value calculus is, so I’m not sure how a deal would be structured, but I’ve felt like a Burnes/Yelich deal would make a lot of sense for this offseason in particular for a while now. It feels kind of similar to the Mookie deal, honestly.
The odds of Burnes re-signing in Milwaukee are roughly 0%, and they badly need to get off that Yelich deal if they want to extend the rest of their core. Yelich has his warts, and he’s back to hitting way too many grounders, but he’s a solid defender, uses left field well, runs the bases well, and still hits the ball hard. I think Fenway and the shift ban would help him age well. The prospect savings you gain from eating his money can be used in a deal for another controllable young starter, too. The contract is big and has a lot of downside potential, but it’s also not a megadeal and lines up well with the Story contract, so even if it goes belly up it shouldn’t hamstring them too badly after resetting the tax this year.
Obviously I haven’t done any projections or anything, and don’t know if I’m totally off base here, but it seems like the sort of direction they could go to get creative this offseason, if they can find the right trade partners. I like Duran and would be happy to keep him in left field for the foreseeable future, and I’m sure they’re not exactly raring to add another iffy contract after finally getting a bunch off the books, but at the same time, a deal like this lets them use him as a valuable trade piece. The Mariners need outfielders, after all.
It does suck that there aren’t many good options for righty power bats—especially ones that can help with the bad defense and baserunning—but having Refsnyder around for basically nothing next year should help. The expected numbers say he’s hit the ball with a bit more authority than the stat line shows, so fingers crossed he can produce a bit more next year. Wouldn’t be opposed to moving Verdugo if they can get Duvall back on a reasonable deal, either. I gotta say, I’m really excited about this offseason. There are a lot fewer holes to fill than there have been, and so many potential ways to improve the team. They should have a lot more flexibility than they have in years past.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Sept 12, 2023 13:18:36 GMT -5
Some people think that if we lose Turner, we need a RHH backup for 1b and 3b. But Casas should not sit as much next year. Can Duvall play 1b once in a while as he did a few years ago? Don't forget, Refsnyder can also play 1st base. Despite his slightly down year, he's still very good vs lefties (.311/.434/.396; 134 wRC+ this year). They really do need to get more out of Refsnyder than they are. Along with pitching and defense, the Sox bench could use some upgrading as well. After watching the Rays and Orioles for a week, it is clear that they have deeper rosters. I think Refsnyder, our Urais, Reyes and McQuire would not likely make those teams. That said, Refsnyder would look a whole lot better if he could back up corner infielders.
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Post by nonothing on Sept 12, 2023 23:44:10 GMT -5
I don’t know exactly what the value calculus is, so I’m not sure how a deal would be structured, but I’ve felt like a Burnes/Yelich deal would make a lot of sense for this offseason in particular for a while now. It feels kind of similar to the Mookie deal, honestly. The odds of Burnes re-signing in Milwaukee are roughly 0%, and they badly need to get off that Yelich deal if they want to extend the rest of their core. Yelich has his warts, and he’s back to hitting way too many grounders, but he’s a solid defender, uses left field well, runs the bases well, and still hits the ball hard. I think Fenway and the shift ban would help him age well. The prospect savings you gain from eating his money can be used in a deal for another controllable young starter, too. The contract is big and has a lot of downside potential, but it’s also not a megadeal and lines up well with the Story contract, so even if it goes belly up it shouldn’t hamstring them too badly after resetting the tax this year. Obviously I haven’t done any projections or anything, and don’t know if I’m totally off base here, but it seems like the sort of direction they could go to get creative this offseason, if they can find the right trade partners. I like Duran and would be happy to keep him in left field for the foreseeable future, and I’m sure they’re not exactly raring to add another iffy contract after finally getting a bunch off the books, but at the same time, a deal like this lets them use him as a valuable trade piece. The Mariners need outfielders, after all. It does suck that there aren’t many good options for righty power bats—especially ones that can help with the bad defense and baserunning—but having Refsnyder around for basically nothing next year should help. The expected numbers say he’s hit the ball with a bit more authority than the stat line shows, so fingers crossed he can produce a bit more next year. Wouldn’t be opposed to moving Verdugo if they can get Duvall back on a reasonable deal, either. I gotta say, I’m really excited about this offseason. There are a lot fewer holes to fill than there have been, and so many potential ways to improve the team. They should have a lot more flexibility than they have in years past. You would take on $130M Yelich deal remaining to get one year of Corbin Burnes? I love the idea of trading for Burnes, but not sure how you can pay that much for one year of a pitcher you may not even be able to re-sign.
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 13, 2023 0:37:00 GMT -5
I don’t know exactly what the value calculus is, so I’m not sure how a deal would be structured, but I’ve felt like a Burnes/Yelich deal would make a lot of sense for this offseason in particular for a while now. It feels kind of similar to the Mookie deal, honestly. The odds of Burnes re-signing in Milwaukee are roughly 0%, and they badly need to get off that Yelich deal if they want to extend the rest of their core. Yelich has his warts, and he’s back to hitting way too many grounders, but he’s a solid defender, uses left field well, runs the bases well, and still hits the ball hard. I think Fenway and the shift ban would help him age well. The prospect savings you gain from eating his money can be used in a deal for another controllable young starter, too. The contract is big and has a lot of downside potential, but it’s also not a megadeal and lines up well with the Story contract, so even if it goes belly up it shouldn’t hamstring them too badly after resetting the tax this year. Obviously I haven’t done any projections or anything, and don’t know if I’m totally off base here, but it seems like the sort of direction they could go to get creative this offseason, if they can find the right trade partners. I like Duran and would be happy to keep him in left field for the foreseeable future, and I’m sure they’re not exactly raring to add another iffy contract after finally getting a bunch off the books, but at the same time, a deal like this lets them use him as a valuable trade piece. The Mariners need outfielders, after all. It does suck that there aren’t many good options for righty power bats—especially ones that can help with the bad defense and baserunning—but having Refsnyder around for basically nothing next year should help. The expected numbers say he’s hit the ball with a bit more authority than the stat line shows, so fingers crossed he can produce a bit more next year. Wouldn’t be opposed to moving Verdugo if they can get Duvall back on a reasonable deal, either. I gotta say, I’m really excited about this offseason. There are a lot fewer holes to fill than there have been, and so many potential ways to improve the team. They should have a lot more flexibility than they have in years past. You would take on $130M Yelich deal remaining to get one year of Corbin Burnes? I love the idea of trading for Burnes, but not sure how you can pay that much for one year of a pitcher you may not even be able to re-sign. I am an idiot without access to all the necessary data to have a particularly insightful take, so I'm pretty convinced Yelich profiles as a Green Monster machine and that it's a risk worth taking. I've loved Yelich for as long as I can remember, though, so that's a me thing. I'd imagine any deal like that would have a more complicated structure than "you get Burnes if you take Yelich," so it would come down to what Milwaukee was actually willing to do. On the other hand, maybe the Sox want to use a chunk of their payroll space for other things like Casas/Bello extensions, so they might not be interested at all! Just seems like the sort of thing they could look into to acquire a legit TOTR starter without giving up a prohibitive prospect package. And even if the contract is underwater, Yelich would still probably be one of the best players on the team next year. I'd rather have him on that deal than Aaron Nola, at least.
Add: the back injuries do scare me, though. They'd need to be comfortable with the medical, obviously.
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Post by terriblehondo on Sept 13, 2023 5:28:53 GMT -5
Yelich is a leftfielder why on earth would the Sox take on him even if he didn't have the back injury history. That just makes the crappy team construction even worse. For one year of Burnes. Hard Pass.
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 13, 2023 8:08:23 GMT -5
Yelich is a leftfielder why on earth would the Sox take on him even if he didn't have the back injury history. That just makes the crappy team construction even worse. For one year of Burnes. Hard Pass. Well if you read my original post you would have seen the part where I say they can then trade from the outfield surplus as part of a package for more pitching. It’s not like they’re only allowed to make one trade and then the offseason is over. The FA pitching market is not great this year so I’d prefer they get arms via trade if they can. Duran is probably gone and Yoshida is probably locked in at DH in a scenario like this.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 13, 2023 8:18:49 GMT -5
Yelich is a leftfielder why on earth would the Sox take on him even if he didn't have the back injury history. That just makes the crappy team construction even worse. For one year of Burnes. Hard Pass. Well if you read my original post you would have seen the part where I say they can then trade from the outfield surplus as part of a package for more pitching. It’s not like they’re only allowed to make one trade and then the offseason is over. The FA pitching market is not great this year so I’d prefer they get arms via trade if they can. Duran is probably gone and Yoshida is probably locked in at DH in a scenario like this. If the Sox were to take on Yelich, I'd try to flip them Yoshida in the deal. At least that way it would offset some of the contract of Yelich since theoretically Yelich would just replace Yoshida in LF that way. I don't find it likely nor is it something I'd necessarily want to see them do but it might be plausible
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Post by terriblehondo on Sept 13, 2023 9:09:50 GMT -5
Yelich is a leftfielder why on earth would the Sox take on him even if he didn't have the back injury history. That just makes the crappy team construction even worse. For one year of Burnes. Hard Pass. Well if you read my original post you would have seen the part where I say they can then trade from the outfield surplus as part of a package for more pitching. It’s not like they’re only allowed to make one trade and then the offseason is over. The FA pitching market is not great this year so I’d prefer they get arms via trade if they can. Duran is probably gone and Yoshida is probably locked in at DH in a scenario like this. I think you over value Duran and his market. He is a speed guy who has part of one season looking like a viable MLB player. He also was shut down and had surgery on his toe. Will his speed be there next year. If he loses speed he really has no value. I don't see where there would be much if any market for him. If he comes back and shows he is the real deal they you have a market for him. But the only way of doing that is to play him.
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rhswanzey
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Post by rhswanzey on Sept 15, 2023 22:28:16 GMT -5
I’d like to submit Brandon Drury as a trade target. He’s 31 on an Angels team headed for total rebuild. He’s on a 2yr $8.5 AAV deal.
He’s 91st percentile OAA. At the plate, he seems somewhat similar to what we’d be hoping for out of an Urias rebound. But he is a significantly superior defender. He has some positional versatility as well, which is nice in case someone else forces themselves onto the big league roster.
I think it would be a mistake to commit to another below average defender at second. Reyes is the only guy on hand I’m comfortable with there, but you don’t want to enter the season projecting him to start.
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Post by costpet on Sept 16, 2023 8:19:25 GMT -5
I don’t care what they do so much of what they do in the field. I worry about pitching. Without good pitching they are going nowhere. They have plenty of trade pieces. Use them to build a good staff. The rest will follow.
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Post by costpet on Sept 16, 2023 8:36:08 GMT -5
Also, with Sale aging, make him the closer next year. Use Jansen as a trade piece to get another starter.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 16, 2023 8:47:56 GMT -5
Also, with Sale aging, make him the closer next year. Use Jansen as a trade piece to get another starter. What team that is interested in Kenley Jansen on a one-year deal is also going to be willing to part with a major league-ready starter?
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Post by manfred on Sept 16, 2023 8:56:39 GMT -5
Also, with Sale aging, make him the closer next year. Use Jansen as a trade piece to get another starter. What team that is interested in Kenley Jansen on a one-year deal is also going to be willing to part with a major league-ready starter? Not sure what you do with Sale. I could imagine him doing a Pomeranz/Andrew Miller bullpen transition. But will he accept that? And will some part of his body explode?
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 16, 2023 10:45:20 GMT -5
Also, with Sale aging, make him the closer next year. Use Jansen as a trade piece to get another starter. What team that is interested in Kenley Jansen on a one-year deal is also going to be willing to part with a major league-ready starter? Hypothetically could be a 3 team deal, Jansen for prospect, prospect as part of package for starter. Unless the Red Sox eat significant salary though I don’t think Jansen gets you anything back.
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Post by manfred on Sept 16, 2023 11:09:59 GMT -5
I don’t get talk of trading Jansen *now*. This season is over. But a proven closer might still be crucial next year. I am not in 2024 sell mode in September of 2023.
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