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2024 Free Agency
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Post by bettsonmookie on Feb 13, 2024 12:28:00 GMT -5
If expectations are adjusted accordingly, I personally think tank seasons can be fun too.
I have been frustrated all off-season but am now looking forward to seeing what the new brainpower can do with what we have.
I would be in support of a Michael Taylor type as a way of alleviating pressure on Rafaela, but otherwise do not want to see them block playing time for the guys already here.
-Abreu -Dalbec -Kutter/Houck/Whit/Winck
If bringing in Duvall, Ryu, Clevinger (who I have wanted) or similar stopgaps means less than full opportunity for any of the above, I don't like it.
Duran shows how much 1 year can change the perception and market value of a player. Improvement from controlled players could yield major returns a year from now.
At this point, let's give them the opportunity to do so.
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Post by swingingbunt on Feb 13, 2024 12:49:04 GMT -5
Well...The forum isn't letting me post the image I want...
I'll just say that it's super weird seeing so many people still whistling past the graveyard today. The Front Office laid out their own agenda how many ever months ago it was - and then failed every part of it.
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Post by 0ap0 on Feb 13, 2024 13:16:18 GMT -5
I'll just say that it's super weird seeing so many people still whistling past the graveyard today. The Front Office laid out their own agenda how many ever months ago it was - and then failed every part of it. I think it's a pretty healthy attitude to seek out the enjoyable within situations you don't control.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 13, 2024 13:21:40 GMT -5
I'll just say that it's super weird seeing so many people still whistling past the graveyard today. The Front Office laid out their own agenda how many ever months ago it was - and then failed every part of it. I think it's a pretty healthy attitude to seek out the enjoyable within situations you don't control. “It’s super weird to see people act like rational adults when discussing a hobby.”
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 13, 2024 14:37:41 GMT -5
Take a look at this doozy from yesterday's FG chat: blogs.fangraphs.com/ben-clemens-fangraphs-chat-2-12-24/ bosoxforlife: Is the Lucas Giolito contract the worst one of this off-season, or do you agree with me that it belongs in the pantheon of awful contracts along with Pujols, Rendon and Bonilla? 2:56 Ben Clemens: I would not remotely put it up there with the worst contracts of all time 2:56 Ben Clemens: it’s just not enough money 2:57 Ben Clemens: I do agree that it was an overpay, and that’s with me being a Giolito fan overall
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Post by swingingbunt on Feb 13, 2024 14:48:01 GMT -5
I'll just say that it's super weird seeing so many people still whistling past the graveyard today. The Front Office laid out their own agenda how many ever months ago it was - and then failed every part of it. I think it's a pretty healthy attitude to seek out the enjoyable within situations you don't control. Totally fair. And the post directly above my last by bettsonmookie is a great example of that. "They're going to suck, but I'll still have fun with it." I'm more talking about the ones that are ignoring the lack of moves, still predicting a playoff team, and then flaming anyone who thinks otherwise.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 13, 2024 14:50:25 GMT -5
I think it's a pretty healthy attitude to seek out the enjoyable within situations you don't control. Totally fair. And the post directly above my last by bettsonmookie is a great example of that. "They're going to suck, but I'll still have fun with it." I'm more talking about the ones that are ignoring the lack of moves, still predicting a playoff team, and then flaming anyone who thinks otherwise. … Is anyone actually doing that? Lol
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Post by swingingbunt on Feb 13, 2024 14:59:13 GMT -5
Totally fair. And the post directly above my last by bettsonmookie is a great example of that. "They're going to suck, but I'll still have fun with it." I'm more talking about the ones that are ignoring the lack of moves, still predicting a playoff team, and then flaming anyone who thinks otherwise. … Is anyone actually doing that? Lol I've been shrugged off as a "WEEI Caller" by multiple people, multiple times this off-season, and when I posted a month ago that we are a worse team than the one we fielded last year I was told how stupid I was, because OF COURSE we're going to get better over the next month. Well....it's next month - pitchers and catchers are reporting - and we haven't done a damn thing since then. Meanwhile, those same posters have now switched from "Of course we're going to get better" to somehow "we're better" Which, as I said, was weird.
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Post by swingingbunt on Feb 13, 2024 15:01:35 GMT -5
And on a different note....There were quite a few posters concerned about hiring Breslow because his lack of experience. They were concerned he would be overmatched because he has never been in a position to be the guy pulling the trigger on deals. Then, today we get this:
I'm sure there are different readings of that, but it really just screams, "I wasn't prepared for the job"
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 13, 2024 15:04:05 GMT -5
… Is anyone actually doing that? Lol I've been shrugged off as a "WEEI Caller" by multiple people, multiple times this off-season, and when I posted a month ago that we are a worse team than the one we fielded last year I was told how stupid I was, because OF COURSE we're going to get better over the next month. Well....it's next month - pitchers and catchers are reporting - and we haven't done a damn thing since then. Meanwhile, those same posters have now switched from "Of course we're going to get better" to somehow "we're better" Which, as I said, was weird. Oh okay, so that was less "actual observation" and more "I'm unhappy people disagree with me". Gotcha. Given your posting history, I'm going to go ahead and continue with my skepticism that anyone here is actually dead-set on the idea that this is a definite playoff team.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 13, 2024 15:07:10 GMT -5
… Is anyone actually doing that? Lol I've been shrugged off as a "WEEI Caller" by multiple people, multiple times this off-season, and when I posted a month ago that we are a worse team than the one we fielded last year I was told how stupid I was, because OF COURSE we're going to get better over the next month. Well....it's next month - pitchers and catchers are reporting - and we haven't done a damn thing since then. Meanwhile, those same posters have now switched from "Of course we're going to get better" to somehow "we're better" Which, as I said, was weird. Well, to be fair, your posts have mostly been snarky and negative. Vegas disagrees that this year's team is worse than last year's; last year the win total O/U was 76.5 or 77.5 depending on where you looked and this year it's 79.5 or 80.5. I haven't seen a single projection that has the Sox with fewer wins than last year: Fangraphs has 82, PECOTA has 79.5, etc. Any additions would of course make things look even better.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 13, 2024 15:08:43 GMT -5
… Is anyone actually doing that? Lol I've been shrugged off as a "WEEI Caller" by multiple people, multiple times this off-season, and when I posted a month ago that we are a worse team than the one we fielded last year I was told how stupid I was, because OF COURSE we're going to get better over the next month. Well....it's next month - pitchers and catchers are reporting - and we haven't done a damn thing since then. Meanwhile, those same posters have now switched from "Of course we're going to get better" to somehow "we're better" Which, as I said, was weird. Yeah, but that's because you sound like a WEEI caller, not because you're critical of the team. Plenty of folks have been saying critical things...
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 13, 2024 15:43:55 GMT -5
And on a different note....There were quite a few posters concerned about hiring Breslow because his lack of experience. They were concerned he would be overmatched because he has never been in a position to be the guy pulling the trigger on deals. Then, today we get this: I'm sure there are different readings of that, but it really just screams, "I wasn't prepared for the job" No it doesn’t scream that
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Post by incandenza on Feb 13, 2024 15:59:57 GMT -5
I do wonder how Breslow thought things would come together. Did he really think he could trade for a top-line starter without giving up Mayer, Anthony, or Teel? I could have told him how that was going to go.
And if their FA approach to pitching was apparently just go all-out for Yamamoto and pass on everyone else (while swapping out Sale for Giolito)... well, again, the outcome should not be that surprising.
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Post by asm18 on Feb 13, 2024 16:10:46 GMT -5
I do wonder how Breslow thought things would come together. Did he really think he could trade for a top-line starter without giving up Mayer, Anthony, or Teel? I could have told him how that was going to go.
And if their FA approach to pitching was apparently just go all-out for Yamamoto and pass on everyone else (while swapping out Sale for Giolito)... well, again, the outcome should not be that surprising.
If we go back alllllll the way to the beginning of this thread, there was speculation/hope that the team would blow past the luxury tax threshold considering 1) two straight last place finishes, and 2) having reset in 2023 and a fairly clean balance sheet after this year/an influx of more young talent set to arrive. I don’t even think this assumption was fanciful - the team had acted this way on numerous previous occasions. It would be fascinating to know if the 2024 Team Payroll budget given to Breslow was the same November 1st as it is now on February 13th, or if something changed.
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 13, 2024 16:11:14 GMT -5
I do wonder how Breslow thought things would come together. Did he really think he could trade for a top-line starter without giving up Mayer, Anthony, or Teel? I could have told him how that was going to go. He was probably really impressed with himself for making the decision that he's willing to pay a hundred and eight cents on the dollar to get some of these deals done and then he comes to find out that nobody will do anything unless he's paying three hundred and forty cents on the dollar.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 13, 2024 16:19:55 GMT -5
I do wonder how Breslow thought things would come together. Did he really think he could trade for a top-line starter without giving up Mayer, Anthony, or Teel? I could have told him how that was going to go.
And if their FA approach to pitching was apparently just go all-out for Yamamoto and pass on everyone else (while swapping out Sale for Giolito)... well, again, the outcome should not be that surprising.
I'm guessing it's door #2. I think for whatever reason the sox thought they'd be the front runner for Yamamoto. It's the only thing that makes sense when breslow says things didn't come together as they thought and Werner saying it's full throttle. I have a hard time believing they thought they'd get an ace or even a #3 without dealing any of the big 3 prospects unless they're delusional.
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Post by yuchangclan on Feb 13, 2024 16:20:30 GMT -5
I've been shrugged off as a "WEEI Caller" by multiple people, multiple times this off-season, and when I posted a month ago that we are a worse team than the one we fielded last year I was told how stupid I was, because OF COURSE we're going to get better over the next month. Well....it's next month - pitchers and catchers are reporting - and we haven't done a damn thing since then. Meanwhile, those same posters have now switched from "Of course we're going to get better" to somehow "we're better" Which, as I said, was weird. Well, to be fair, your posts have mostly been snarky and negative. Vegas disagrees that this year's team is worse than last year's; last year the win total O/U was 76.5 or 77.5 depending on where you looked and this year it's 79.5 or 80.5. I haven't seen a single projection that has the Sox with fewer wins than last year: Fangraphs has 82, PECOTA has 79.5, etc. Any additions would of course make things look even better.
Honest question: Where are they better this year than they were last year? Objectively, the starting rotation looks pretty bad, the bullpen looks good and the offense looks pretty thin. I can envision a scenario where the lack of depth in the rotation destroys the depth in the bullpen by late-May. Will the Sox have the punch to outscore everyone from that point on? Turner was probably the most clutch hitter on the team last year. Who replaces that for this team? Also, everyone seems convinced that Grissom is the next Pedroia. But what if he’s not? What if he’s more Christian Arroyo than Pedroia? They are kind of putting all their eggs in one basket with him. I’m skeptical. I’m no gambler, but I fail to see how this team is better than the one that finished last season.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 13, 2024 16:20:33 GMT -5
I do wonder how Breslow thought things would come together. Did he really think he could trade for a top-line starter without giving up Mayer, Anthony, or Teel? I could have told him how that was going to go.
And if their FA approach to pitching was apparently just go all-out for Yamamoto and pass on everyone else (while swapping out Sale for Giolito)... well, again, the outcome should not be that surprising.
If we go back alllllll the way to the beginning of this thread, there was speculation/hope that the team would blow past the luxury tax threshold considering 1) two straight last place finishes, and 2) having reset in 2023 and a fairly clean balance sheet after this year/an influx of more young talent set to arrive. I don’t even think this assumption was fanciful - the team had acted this way on numerous previous occasions. It would be fascinating to know if the 2024 Team Payroll budget given to Breslow was the same November 1st as it is now on February 13th, or if something changed. There's also the reporting that the sense in the organization was that this would be the offseason to get a little more aggressive. That reporting goes back to before Bloom was fired in fact. Did that sentiment change over the last few months?
Ignoring all rhetoric and just looking at the actions the team has taken, you'd think they looked at the last two seasons in which the team was only okay, decided that they were being too aggressive for not enough payoff, and the thing to do was to reel it back on the short-term free agency spending.
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Post by itinerantherb on Feb 13, 2024 16:28:39 GMT -5
I do wonder how Breslow thought things would come together. Did he really think he could trade for a top-line starter without giving up Mayer, Anthony, or Teel? I could have told him how that was going to go.
And if their FA approach to pitching was apparently just go all-out for Yamamoto and pass on everyone else (while swapping out Sale for Giolito)... well, again, the outcome should not be that surprising.
I'm guessing it's door #2. I think for whatever reason the sox thought they'd be the front runner for Yamamoto. It's the only thing that makes sense when breslow says things didn't come together as they thought and Werner saying it's full throttle. I have a hard time believing they thought they'd get an ace or even a #3 without dealing any of the big 3 prospects unless they're delusional. Based on his early comments about needing to be willing to spend prospect capital, I think he expected to make a trade for an SP. We'll probably never know, but my guess is that even one of the big three wasn't enough to get a front-end starter with three-plus years of control, and he wasn't willing to empty the farm for a shorter term rental like Burnes or Cease.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Feb 13, 2024 16:34:28 GMT -5
Well, to be fair, your posts have mostly been snarky and negative. Vegas disagrees that this year's team is worse than last year's; last year the win total O/U was 76.5 or 77.5 depending on where you looked and this year it's 79.5 or 80.5. I haven't seen a single projection that has the Sox with fewer wins than last year: Fangraphs has 82, PECOTA has 79.5, etc. Any additions would of course make things look even better.
Honest question: Where are they better this year than they were last year? Objectively, the starting rotation looks pretty bad, the bullpen looks good and the offense looks pretty thin. I can envision a scenario where the lack of depth in the rotation destroys the depth in the bullpen by late-May. Will the Sox have the punch to outscore everyone from that point on? Turner was probably the most clutch hitter on the team last year. Who replaces that for this team? Also, everyone seems convinced that Grissom is the next Pedroia. But what if he’s not? What if he’s more Christian Arroyo than Pedroia? They are kind of putting all their eggs in one basket with him. I’m skeptical. I’m no gambler, but I fail to see how this team is better than the one that finished last season. If Vegas has this team at over/under of 80 or 81 then hammer the under. The East is way too good and on paper the team has too many questions and not enough consistency to back it up. In order for this team to get to .500 in this division we will need to see huge leaps forward by Bello and some of the other young guys, Duran Pivetta and Casas to build on last year and Giolito to come back to form for the first time since they outlawed the sticky stuff. It could happen. There's a lot of things that could happen. Would I bet on it? Absolutely not. I'm laying out the absolute best case scenario and I fail to see how this team finishes higher than 4th in that scenario. Orioles and Rays are absolutely loaded with talent. Yankees on paper are better as are the Blue Jays. This changes with a legitimate #2 starter on this team. If they add that I think the team could get 82-84 wins. Without it you're probably looking at 75-78. Now sure you could look at Snell, and say that he's projected to have 1.9 WAR so he's not going to make that big of an impact. I disagree. Having a quality top of the rotation starter is a game changer. Look at the 2015 Red Sox for example, ironically also a 78 win team. That team probably finishes ahead of Tampa and Baltimore that year if they just had a stable top of the rotation anchor. This team is not bad enough to bottom out but not good enough to make the playoffs. Probably will pick around the 9-14 range next year. For what its worth I'm bullish on Grissom probably more than most on the board.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 13, 2024 16:34:52 GMT -5
I do wonder how Breslow thought things would come together. Did he really think he could trade for a top-line starter without giving up Mayer, Anthony, or Teel? I could have told him how that was going to go. He was probably really impressed with himself for making the decision that he's willing to pay a hundred and eight cents on the dollar to get some of these deals done and then he comes to find out that nobody will do anything unless he's paying three hundred and forty cents on the dollar. Yeah, that's been my take. I have the feeling that Boras got really fooled by the amount that LA was willing to fork over for the Japanese imports. But the Dodgers have a very different frame than teams bidding on his stable of players. Others have mentioned that there's been some overreach on his part, and that may be what's led to the impasse - and not just with the Red Sox. He may find a way to save face, but so far it's not pretty - and certainly not what potential bidders "anticipated". The remaining pitchers who would actually add real value to the Boston roster are still waiting it out. I'm still trying to understand why the Sox would want to sign pitchers who are really no better than those they already have under their control at a more reasonable cost. The ones who have signed weren't coming to Boston - not Nola and certainly not Yamamoto. And the position players? Just my take but it's been a marginal collection. Again, why would they want to block their own talent to do that? Burnes was one possibility, but that would have taken some combination of ML pitching, and or top prospects - for one year before the dice got rolled again. That for me is a realistic appraisal of the available talent pool in this off-season.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,907
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Post by nomar on Feb 13, 2024 16:35:12 GMT -5
Take a look at this doozy from yesterday's FG chat: blogs.fangraphs.com/ben-clemens-fangraphs-chat-2-12-24/ bosoxforlife: Is the Lucas Giolito contract the worst one of this off-season, or do you agree with me that it belongs in the pantheon of awful contracts along with Pujols, Rendon and Bonilla? 2:56 Ben Clemens: I would not remotely put it up there with the worst contracts of all time 2:56 Ben Clemens: it’s just not enough money 2:57 Ben Clemens: I do agree that it was an overpay, and that’s with me being a Giolito fan overall Lmao. Red Sox fans have been the least knowledgeable fans in baseball this offseason. It’s likely due to the fact people are pissed and the most vocal segment of the internet is complaining, but man oh man… brutal and so cringey.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Feb 13, 2024 16:35:16 GMT -5
3 years on Soler is a pretty easy pass for me, not upset at that one. Agreed, pass on Soler (the DH crappy outfielder). The Red Sox were the worst defensive team in the MLB last year. Let’s hope Breslow/Epstein sign players who can play defense. It matters!
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 13, 2024 16:35:57 GMT -5
Honest question: Where are they better this year than they were last year? Objectively, the starting rotation looks pretty bad, the bullpen looks good and the offense looks pretty thin. I can envision a scenario where the lack of depth in the rotation destroys the depth in the bullpen by late-May. Will the Sox have the punch to outscore everyone from that point on? Turner was probably the most clutch hitter on the team last year. Who replaces that for this team? Also, everyone seems convinced that Grissom is the next Pedroia. But what if he’s not? What if he’s more Christian Arroyo than Pedroia? They are kind of putting all their eggs in one basket with him. I’m skeptical. I’m no gambler, but I fail to see how this team is better than the one that finished last season. If Vegas has this team at over/under of 80 or 81 then hammer the under. The East is way too good and on paper the team has too many questions and not enough consistency to back it up. In order for this team to get to .500 in this division we will need to see huge leaps forward by Bello and some of the other young guys, Duran Pivetta and Casas to build on last year and Giolito to come back to form for the first time since they outlawed the sticky stuff. It could happen. There's a lot of things that could happen. Would I bet on it? Absolutely not. I'm laying out the absolute best case scenario and I fail to see how this team finishes higher than 4th in that scenario. Orioles and Rays are absolutely loaded with talent. Yankees on paper are better as are the Blue Jays. This changes with a legitimate #2 starter on this team. If they add that I think the team could get 82-84 wins. Without it you're probably looking at 75-78. Not bad enough to bottom out but not good enough to make the playoffs. Probably will pick around the 9-14 range next year. For what its worth I'm bullish on Grissom probably more than most on the board. You think a #2 starter is worth roughly 6 wins?
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