Patriots 2023 Season Thread

Bloom did the same thing this trade deadline.

I would trade any Pats player (except Gonzalez) for a 2nd round pick...except I have little confidence in Bill's ability to effectively employ the acquired pick. I would almost rather go the other way and trade away all of our draft picks for established players (almost).

The thing which I find most annoying about Bill's recent drafts is his willingness to draft players way (way) ahead of their consensus draft position - and these picks have not worked out well. What possible rationales are there for picking a player far ahead of consensus rank? Either (1) you have information about the player that is not commonly available to the public, or (2) you have the same information, but you evaluate it differently, or (3) you are desperate to fill a position. Not sure that last one is a valid rationale. I would be interested in knowing what Bill thinks he knows about some of these guys that the rest of the world does not, or what differs in his analysis to justify these picks, or why he goes into the draft desperate to fill positions.

Below is a sample of Bills recent overdrafts. (Position, Consensus Rank, Draft Position)
For the Consensus Rank I used Mock Draft Database pre-draft consensus rankings. If you constructed the consensus differently you may get slightly different results - but probably not much. What counts as an over-draft is a bit subjective. As pick number increases, the opportunity cost declines. As pick number increases, players are less well scouted. Finally, as pick number increases there are more draft eligible players of approximately the same level (ie they are not yet ready for the NFL). So as pick number increases, I will be more forgiving in what I consider an over-draft. Which of these picks would you consider a win? Are there others who I am missing?

2023
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Marte Mapu (SS/OLB, 157, 76)
Jake Andrews (C, 270, 107)
Chad Ryland (K, 273, 112) are kickers and punters (and QBs) different in some way? Not sure why they would be.
Sidy Sow (G, 185, 117)
Atonio Mafi (229, 144)

2022
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Cole Strange (G, 89, 29)
Tyquon Thornton (WR, 130, 50)
Jack Jones (CB, 241, 121) the low consensus rank here may not have been due to talent. I recall the Pats met with him and were ok with him. So that may explain the discrepancy.
Sam Roberts (IDL, 645, 200)

2021
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in this draft they actually took a few players who fell - which is not necessarily a great sign either. If every team had a chance to grab player X but no-one did, that suggests there is something that the teams knew about him that the public did not (see God-Of-Punts)
William Sherman (OL, 316, 197) borderline overdraft

2020
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Kyle Duggar (S, 55, 37) borderline overdraft, but I'm trying to be fair to Bill. Call this a win.
Anfernee Jennings (Edge, 151, 87)
Devin Asiasi (TE, 140, 90)
Dalton Keene (TE, 203, 101)
Justin Rohrwasser (K, 450, 159)
Cassh Maluia (LB, 415, 204)

2019
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JoeJuan Williams (CB, 77, 45)
Jarret Stidham (QB, 225, 133)
Jake Bailey (P, 318, 163)

2019
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Duke Dawson (CB, 96, 56)
Ja'Whaun Bentley (LB, 228, 143) this was a win


Lots of whiffs in there. Assuming Bill is still in charge at next draft, I just wish that before he picks a player, he looks at their consensus draft rank, and if he is about to do a big over-draft, then he should ask himself "what do I know about this guy that no-one else does?" Because chances are, its nothing.

I'm going with the subtle observation of how the Red Sox GM also didn't make any moves at the deadline either.

Because there aren’t a ton of trades made in the NFL for a lot of reasons. They couldn’t really trade Onwenu because you need a functioning line. Once Bourne went down they couldn’t deal a WR and no one wants JuJu anyways. Uche and Duggar are really the only ones with any real value and if no one is offering a 2 or 3 it doesn’t make sense to just dump them to dump them.

You probably get pretty good comp picks if Uche and dugger walk so it doesn’t make sense to just flip them for anything. With Young going for a 3rd and Uche’s market being a little depressed due to injury I bet they got offered something that’s similar to the comp pick they’ll get when he leaves

With dugger I think they probably want to retain him

I think he’ll get a good sized contract, possibly get them a 5th

I’m not convinced they’ll be hunting major players in free agency. They have the money to but I could see them being reluctant given the last time they spent they ended up with Judon and that’s about it as far as decent value goes

Uche is also banged up right now, so an acquiring team factors that in for sure

I agree, if they were offered a 4th and didn’t take it then they are probably doing themselves a disservice. If they bring back Uche then that would explain everything but I don’t see that happening

Given the injury and contract situation it wouldn’t shock me if a bunch of teams were offering 5ths

Josh McDaniels fired.
www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/raiders-fire-head-coach-josh-mcdaniels-general-manager-dave-ziegler-in-surprising-late-night-move/

Press conference getting testy this morning as Belichick acts like trade deadline didn't exist after multiple reporters asked multiple ways what the team's approach was and if anything was close or not. The A-hole pressers work better when you're winning. "We asked about other team's players, people asked about our players, but nothing happened; there's no such thing as close," would have taken 10 seconds and not made it a thing.

I'm not avoiding getting future assets over Pop Douglas, as much as I like him. If they bring back Brown and Onwenu that's fine, but if not, you might have just lost out on 2nd and 3rd round picks over creating a more efficient line so that Pop Douglas can get more time, thus more experience getting open. They have the worst record in the AFC and teams with better records have sold off.

But, can't fully rip the deadline until we see what happens with the FA to be. Though, I still would argue addition by subtraction and getting a better pick has added value as well.

If the Patriots really had no one worth any value and thus no reason to make any moves. Then that's a big indictment on Bill. But I don't believe Bill tried to trade anyone. I believe right now it's just all about Bill and his record. Either that or Bill wasn't allowed to make any moves ala Boom.

As a side note, Patriots aren't likely going to get vastly better by next year either so guys you want to re-sign you're banking on being productive 2 years from now as a minimum.

Trent Brown and Onwenu wouldn't be worth that? Aren't both guys playing well? I'd imagine this is the most plug and play position in football. Especially Onwenu given his age moving to a situation where the acquiring team plans to lock him up like what the Bears did for Sweat. Not saying Onwenu is as valuable, but a team like KC (example, don't know their line situation) their 2nd or 3rd rounder wouldn't be nearly as valuable as Chicago.

Again, if they aren't here next year then any loss of value is a complete waste.

According to Giardi (his source), it came down to a disconnect between the Patriots perception of value for their players and the leagues (at least as represented by the teams NE were talking to) and an unwillingness to "just get something" for their tradeable assets.