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Patriots 2023 Season Thread
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Post by rasimon on Nov 1, 2023 14:25:59 GMT -5
This year, there were not that many deadline trades of a player for draft pick(s), where the draft pick was better than a 6th. Below are those trades. If I don't indicate the draft year, then it is 2024.
Leonard Williams (DL) <-> 2nd + 2025 5th
Montez Sweat (DE) <-> 2nd
Chase Young (DE) <-> 2nd (conditional)
Rasul Douglas (CB) + 5th <-> 3rd I've also seen this reported with the 5th going the other way, but I think this is correct.
Kevin Byard (S) <-> Terrell Edmunds (S) + 5th + 6th
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 1, 2023 15:44:29 GMT -5
Trent Brown and Onwenu wouldn't be worth that? Aren't both guys playing well? I'd imagine this is the most plug and play position in football. Especially Onwenu given his age moving to a situation where the acquiring team plans to lock him up like what the Bears did for Sweat. Not saying Onwenu is as valuable, but a team like KC (example, don't know their line situation) their 2nd or 3rd rounder wouldn't be nearly as valuable as Chicago. Again, if they aren't here next year then any loss of value is a complete waste. No, I don't think either Brown or Onwenu would have clearly been worth a second or third round pick to another team given their contract and health statuses. I will also note that offensive line is not really that much of a plug-and-play position. It takes time to OLs to build chemistry and feel, and plugging folks in and out can harm overall OL play (as the Patriots have learned this year - all the moving parts makes them less than the sum of their parts). I can't imagine a young, interior guard who can play RT wouldn't command a late 3rd rounder, but maybe I don't get NFL draft value. I'm assuming teams are willing to pay for that in FA. I would like some reports of offers allegedly being made or asks that were made. I find it inexcusable they did nothing with a 2-6 record. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 1, 2023 15:54:49 GMT -5
I think they’re gonna pay Onwenu. At worst franchise him. I’d imagine he will be priority one
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Post by texs31 on Nov 1, 2023 15:57:23 GMT -5
Just look at the history of trades made at the deadline. What's the going rate for comparable players? I haven't looked myself but I bet it's lower than a 3rd for an OL 1/2 way through their final season of their deal.
I think, too often, we compare outcomes to what we want and not what we typically see throughout the league.
Some other factors to consider:
1. The Krafts still want to put a team out there that will bring fans to the stadium, even in a lost year.
2. Sounds like BB allows his assistants (on the player personnel side) do a lot of the work and then they bring ideas to him. Those people (potentially those looking to establish themselves in the league) are not going to want to set up awful value trades (even if it is more than the "nothing" they'd get if players let via FA) to have attached to their resume.
We may hate these things might happen but they (likely) do. That's probably not a Patriot-specific thing.
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Post by rasimon on Nov 1, 2023 16:42:24 GMT -5
2022 draft deadline trades for draft picks, where the draft pick was better than a 6th. If I don't indicate the draft year, then it is 2023. Still no OLs.
Bradley Chubb (LB) + 2025 5th <-> Chase Edmunds (RB) + 1st + 2024 4th
Christian McCaffrey (RB) <-> 2nd + 3rd + 4th + 2024 5th
TJ Hockenson (TE) + 4th + 2024 4th (conditional) <-> 2nd + 2024 3rd
Roquan Smith (LB) <-> AJ Klein (LB) + 2nd + 5th
Chase Claypool (WR) <-> 2nd
Calvin Ridley (WR) <-> 5th (conditional) + 2024 2nd (conditional)
Kadarius Toney (WR) <-> 3rd comp + 6th
Robert Quinn (DE) <-> 4th
Jacob Martin (DE) <-> 2024 4th + 2024 5th
Nyheim Hines (RB) <-> Zach Moss (RB) + 5th (conditional)
Jeff Wilson (RB) <-> 5th
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Post by rasimon on Nov 1, 2023 17:04:41 GMT -5
2021 draft deadline trades for draft picks, where the draft pick was better than a 6th. If I don't indicate the draft year, then it is 2022.
Quiet year
Von Miller (LB) <-> 2nd + 3rd
Zach Ertz (TE) <-> Tay Gowan (CB) + 5th
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Post by rasimon on Nov 1, 2023 17:07:08 GMT -5
2020 draft deadline trades for draft picks, where the draft pick was better than a 6th. If I don't indicate the draft year, then it is 2021.
Yannick Ngakou (DE) <-> 3rd + 2022 5th (conditional)
Kwon Alexander (LB) <-> Kiko Alonso (LB) + 5th (conditional)
Avery Williamson (LB) + 2022 7th <-> 2022 5th
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Post by rasimon on Nov 1, 2023 17:22:09 GMT -5
Last one
2019 draft deadline trades for draft picks, where the draft pick was better than a 6th. If I don't indicate the draft year, then it is 2020.
Jalen Ramsey (CB) 1st + 2021 1st + 2021 4th
Mohamed Sanu (WR) <-> 2nd wow did we ever overpay!
Emmanuel Sanders (WR) + 5th (conditional) <-> 3rd + 4th
Leonard Williams (DL) <-> 3rd + 2021 5th
Gareon Conley (CB) <-> 3rd
Genard Avery (DE) <-> 4th
Marcus Peters (CB) <-> Kenny Young (LB) +5th
Austin Corbett (OL) <-> 2021 5th
Zay Jones (WR) <-> 2021 5th
Quandre Diggs (S) + 2021 7th <-> 5th
Aqib Talib (CB) + 5th <-> 7th Talib was on IR. Miami essentially bought a draft pick.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 1, 2023 18:42:06 GMT -5
I would trade any Pats player (except Gonzalez) for a 2nd round pick...except I have little confidence in Bill's ability to effectively employ the acquired pick. I would almost rather go the other way and trade away all of our draft picks for established players (almost). The thing which I find most annoying about Bill's recent drafts is his willingness to draft players way (way) ahead of their consensus draft position - and these picks have not worked out well. What possible rationales are there for picking a player far ahead of consensus rank? Either (1) you have information about the player that is not commonly available to the public, or (2) you have the same information, but you evaluate it differently, or (3) you are desperate to fill a position. Not sure that last one is a valid rationale. I would be interested in knowing what Bill thinks he knows about some of these guys that the rest of the world does not, or what differs in his analysis to justify these picks, or why he goes into the draft desperate to fill positions. Below is a sample of Bills recent overdrafts. (Position, Consensus Rank, Draft Position) For the Consensus Rank I used Mock Draft Database pre-draft consensus rankings. If you constructed the consensus differently you may get slightly different results - but probably not much. What counts as an over-draft is a bit subjective. As pick number increases, the opportunity cost declines. As pick number increases, players are less well scouted. Finally, as pick number increases there are more draft eligible players of approximately the same level (ie they are not yet ready for the NFL). So as pick number increases, I will be more forgiving in what I consider an over-draft. Which of these picks would you consider a win? Are there others who I am missing? 2023 ----- Marte Mapu (SS/OLB, 157, 76) Jake Andrews (C, 270, 107) Chad Ryland (K, 273, 112) are kickers and punters (and QBs) different in some way? Not sure why they would be. Sidy Sow (G, 185, 117) Atonio Mafi (229, 144) 2022 ------ Cole Strange (G, 89, 29) Tyquon Thornton (WR, 130, 50) Jack Jones (CB, 241, 121) the low consensus rank here may not have been due to talent. I recall the Pats met with him and were ok with him. So that may explain the discrepancy. Sam Roberts (IDL, 645, 200) 2021 ------ in this draft they actually took a few players who fell - which is not necessarily a great sign either. If every team had a chance to grab player X but no-one did, that suggests there is something that the teams knew about him that the public did not (see God-Of-Punts) William Sherman (OL, 316, 197) borderline overdraft 2020 ------- Kyle Duggar (S, 55, 37) borderline overdraft, but I'm trying to be fair to Bill. Call this a win. Anfernee Jennings (Edge, 151, 87) Devin Asiasi (TE, 140, 90) Dalton Keene (TE, 203, 101) Justin Rohrwasser (K, 450, 159) Cassh Maluia (LB, 415, 204) 2019 ------ JoeJuan Williams (CB, 77, 45) Jarret Stidham (QB, 225, 133) Jake Bailey (P, 318, 163) 2019 ------ Duke Dawson (CB, 96, 56) Ja'Whaun Bentley (LB, 228, 143) this was a win Lots of whiffs in there. Assuming Bill is still in charge at next draft, I just wish that before he picks a player, he looks at their consensus draft rank, and if he is about to do a big over-draft, then he should ask himself "what do I know about this guy that no-one else does?" Because chances are, its nothing. Some of those rankings look way off, like that's not the consensus draft rank I've seen, but I use a ton of sources and some players have wide ranges. I think that's important to look at. Example Strange and Thornton, no one had them close, it's high draft picks, massive overdrafts and bad picks unless they pan out. Mapu for example had a big range, people had him as a top 100 player, other didn't. Andrews was a big reach, but Sow and Mafi had much better ranking then your numbers show. There's a ton of ranking sites, draft magazines and guides. I always use the draft magazines which is just tape and stats, along with the others that adjust things based on combine and workouts. I'd also point out the pre draft ranking never do a great job after early round or two of nailing picks. Last draft AT Perry WR wake forest comes to mind, everyone had him way higher by rounds. So these lists don't match NFL teams boards very well after say 2nd or 3rd round. Even when they do agree you get a Douglas, which shows how everyone missed on that one. Everydraft you'll have a ton of players falling rounds sitting on people's best available and tons more going way earlier. This isn’t just Patriots thing, as much as we make it out to be that way. Another guy Jennings, was ranked much higher by some people and I'd call that a good pick for example. He's really come on strong the last two years. Good chance you want to resign him. I think we also need to give them credit from 2022 to 2023, there's a huge difference in a very good way. |
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Post by rasimon on Nov 2, 2023 0:01:14 GMT -5
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 2, 2023 0:17:21 GMT -5
I’m cool with them holding firm on a 4th. You don’t want to establish a track record of giving players away for no value just to give them away
Had they turned down a 4th it would be a different story
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Post by rasimon on Nov 2, 2023 0:43:01 GMT -5
www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/12zlreu/2023_consensus_big_board_final/This guy produces another consensus mock draft. He provides a link to his tableau based site that you can play with as well. He has Marte Mapu with average 147 Sidy Sow with average of 194 Atonio Mafi with average of 214 Which is consistent with MockDraftDataBase You can see the dispersion of rankings. In all three cases the Pats draft was extremely aggressive relative to rankings.
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Post by jmei on Nov 2, 2023 4:32:00 GMT -5
I would have been OK trading Uche for a fifth, but holding onto him was OK as well. Doesn’t move the needle much either way.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 2, 2023 5:36:31 GMT -5
www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/12zlreu/2023_consensus_big_board_final/This guy produces another consensus mock draft. He provides a link to his tableau based site that you can play with as well. He has Marte Mapu with average 147 Sidy Sow with average of 194 Atonio Mafi with average of 214 Which is consistent with MockDraftDataBase You can see the dispersion of rankings. In all three cases the Pats draft was extremely aggressive relative to rankings. Average rankings is a bad way of looking at things. |
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Post by cdj on Nov 2, 2023 8:00:43 GMT -5
www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/12zlreu/2023_consensus_big_board_final/This guy produces another consensus mock draft. He provides a link to his tableau based site that you can play with as well. He has Marte Mapu with average 147 Sidy Sow with average of 194 Atonio Mafi with average of 214 Which is consistent with MockDraftDataBase You can see the dispersion of rankings. In all three cases the Pats draft was extremely aggressive relative to rankings. Average rankings is a bad way of looking at things. Especially that deep into the draft |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 2, 2023 12:15:48 GMT -5
www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Sidy-Sow-OL-EasternMichiganAs you can see big ranges PFF had Sow 123 we took him 117. You can go by averages but do you even know who ranked them and are they any good? I look at a crazy amount of material, I'm just scratching the surface of the whole internet. Draft magazines that offer some of the best information in very detailed descriptions and rankings aren't on the internet. No ones using the Beast as it's behind a paid wall. Nevermind that group is small school guys and Mafi who played DT for two years before switching to OG. Those guys are sleepers and where you can find diamonds like a certain Rookie WR. Don't mind those picks besides Andrews and I'm fairly informed. Andrews breaks my rule with centers, I like battled tested power 5 guys with lots of starts. That being said centers are a different bread and we'll see. Nevermind look at 2021 which was looked at as very good. Mac Jones one of our biggest issues, Barmore keeps showing you small samples, still hasn't put it together. Perkins is a huge bust, then Stevenson, then rest of class bust. I'd also point out about 50% of first round picks busts and it goes up from there every round. Sean Payton seen as a great coach and offensive mastermind with Drew Brees, looks horrible with Wilson who at one time was considered an elite QB. It's all about the QB in football and they aren't easy to find. Bills issue is finding a QB and spending his free agent money better, not really his drafting. Not moving Onwenu to RT and spending almost 10 million on junk RT that gave us nothing.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 3, 2023 7:27:57 GMT -5
I would have been OK trading Uche for a fifth, but holding onto him was OK as well. Doesn’t move the needle much either way. Wasted capital is wasted capital. They're not getting comp picks. Let's say they got offered a 6th rounder for Uche and have no intent on re-signing him. Then you just gave up a 6th round pick for 10 games of a lost season. I know hitting on 5-7th round picks is extremely hard, but arguably the most talented player on the offense was literally drafted in the 6th round last year. That's assuming they even use the pick. They can trade it for a guy like JC Jackson who might need a change of scenery or use it in a package to move up the board. It gives the team flexibility. I have no problem not trading Onwenu or Dugger, but only if they sign them. I know Onwenu wants to stay, but I'm not making anything of that until a deal is done. So, fine, Onwenu only nets you a 5th round pick. It's still better than nothing if the team isn't willing to sign him. They won't get any credit for "tried to sign" either. They have conversations with their agents. They should have a rough understanding as to what they are looking for and if it fits into their budget. And again, you're getting worse by trading Uche, Elliott, or whomever which helps you get better draft positioning. That should factor into the calculus. I really can't believe the Patriots had no one anyone wanted and if they did, that's more of an indictment on Belichick. I really just don't see the value of having a mediocre, sub-.500 season that's not going to be awful enough to get a top 5 pick. No one has the illusion of them making the playoffs at this point. I don't think from a business standpoint that selling off or doing nothing is going to change viewership and attendance all that much. Everyone knows it's a bad product with no hope for this season. Did the Cardinals or Panthers make trades? No. Did other bad teams move players? Yes. The Patriots are the only 2 win team in the AFC. But again, if they re-sign Uche, Dugger, Onwenu and others that's fine. I would like to hear rumors about if anyone even wanted any of the players on the roster. Supposedly no one called for Elliott or Mac so I'm not harping on those two nearly as much. If the same is true for everyone else then that's unfortunate. |
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 3, 2023 9:34:06 GMT -5
I would have been OK trading Uche for a fifth, but holding onto him was OK as well. Doesn’t move the needle much either way. Wasted capital is wasted capital. They're not getting comp picks. Let's say they got offered a 6th rounder for Uche and have no intent on re-signing him. Then you just gave up a 6th round pick for 10 games of a lost season. I know hitting on 5-7th round picks is extremely hard, but arguably the most talented player on the offense was literally drafted in the 6th round last year. That's assuming they even use the pick. They can trade it for a guy like JC Jackson who might need a change of scenery or use it in a package to move up the board. It gives the team flexibility. I have no problem not trading Onwenu or Dugger, but only if they sign them. I know Onwenu wants to stay, but I'm not making anything of that until a deal is done. So, fine, Onwenu only nets you a 5th round pick. It's still better than nothing if the team isn't willing to sign him. They won't get any credit for "tried to sign" either. They have conversations with their agents. They should have a rough understanding as to what they are looking for and if it fits into their budget. And again, you're getting worse by trading Uche, Elliott, or whomever which helps you get better draft positioning. That should factor into the calculus. I really can't believe the Patriots had no one anyone wanted and if they did, that's more of an indictment on Belichick. I really just don't see the value of having a mediocre, sub-.500 season that's not going to be awful enough to get a top 5 pick. No one has the illusion of them making the playoffs at this point. I don't think from a business standpoint that selling off or doing nothing is going to change viewership and attendance all that much. Everyone knows it's a bad product with no hope for this season. Did the Cardinals or Panthers make trades? No. Did other bad teams move players? Yes. The Patriots are the only 2 win team in the AFC. But again, if they re-sign Uche, Dugger, Onwenu and others that's fine. I would like to hear rumors about if anyone even wanted any of the players on the roster. Supposedly no one called for Elliott or Mac so I'm not harping on those two nearly as much. If the same is true for everyone else then that's unfortunate. There is other damage done by dumping good players for little or nothing. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 3, 2023 9:54:15 GMT -5
Wasted capital is wasted capital. They're not getting comp picks. Let's say they got offered a 6th rounder for Uche and have no intent on re-signing him. Then you just gave up a 6th round pick for 10 games of a lost season. I know hitting on 5-7th round picks is extremely hard, but arguably the most talented player on the offense was literally drafted in the 6th round last year. That's assuming they even use the pick. They can trade it for a guy like JC Jackson who might need a change of scenery or use it in a package to move up the board. It gives the team flexibility. I have no problem not trading Onwenu or Dugger, but only if they sign them. I know Onwenu wants to stay, but I'm not making anything of that until a deal is done. So, fine, Onwenu only nets you a 5th round pick. It's still better than nothing if the team isn't willing to sign him. They won't get any credit for "tried to sign" either. They have conversations with their agents. They should have a rough understanding as to what they are looking for and if it fits into their budget. And again, you're getting worse by trading Uche, Elliott, or whomever which helps you get better draft positioning. That should factor into the calculus. I really can't believe the Patriots had no one anyone wanted and if they did, that's more of an indictment on Belichick. I really just don't see the value of having a mediocre, sub-.500 season that's not going to be awful enough to get a top 5 pick. No one has the illusion of them making the playoffs at this point. I don't think from a business standpoint that selling off or doing nothing is going to change viewership and attendance all that much. Everyone knows it's a bad product with no hope for this season. Did the Cardinals or Panthers make trades? No. Did other bad teams move players? Yes. The Patriots are the only 2 win team in the AFC. But again, if they re-sign Uche, Dugger, Onwenu and others that's fine. I would like to hear rumors about if anyone even wanted any of the players on the roster. Supposedly no one called for Elliott or Mac so I'm not harping on those two nearly as much. If the same is true for everyone else then that's unfortunate. There is other damage done by dumping good players for little or nothing. How so? The team is talentless to begin with and the idea is moving on from pieces you have little to no interest in retaining. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 3, 2023 10:56:52 GMT -5
Uche for a third or 4th, yeah he's gone. A 5th from a team tied for 2nd best record in league isn't much. Uche hasn't done much to help you win and you don't have a replacement he's stoping from getting playing time. Let's be realistic a late 5th isn't much, especially for a team that always trades down and has a bunch of late round picks.
Interesting he was almost traded to Seattle for a player and pick, injuries per report stopped that from happening. So the player was likely a DE type guy.
So they certainly tried, you need to set value and stick to it. I personally think the Jags were stupid not paying a 4th for Uche.
I don't get hiring Josh McDaniels if you won't even given him 2-4 years. At the same time he was stupid, if Carr wasn't a QB he wanted, why take that job? It's like they basically fired him because Adams is unhappy backup QBs can't get him the ball, that's crazy.
Yeah I bring him in right away if you can. McDaniels is an elite OC, Bill O'Brian isn't one. Bill O'Brian needs to go back to college take a good power 5 coaching job and work on being a head coach again. He was a better headcoach than OC. There was a reason Bama fans wanted hin fired and jumped for joy when he left. Kraft if you care about winning you throw a big bag of money at Josh McDaniels. If Josh McDaniels wants to be a coach, he also should go to college and study his craft there. He'd be able to really get good offensive recruits, turn around a program and he'd get another chance. Then again maybe he should just stay at OC.
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Post by rasimon on Nov 3, 2023 11:23:02 GMT -5
Andrew Callahan says he spoke with front-office people around the league and the Pats should have been able to get
Duggar: 2nd or 3rd
Uche: 3rd or 4th
Onwenu: 5th
Bourne: 5th or 6th. (preinjury I assume)
Mills: 7th
If these valuations are correct, I would have:
Traded Duggar unless they want to resign him AND they think they have a very high probability of resigning him.
Sent Uche packing
Kept Onwenu unless they think there is low probabiity of him resigning
Could go either way on Bourne
Much as I hate Mills (as a player not as a person)...I would keep him
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 3, 2023 12:32:53 GMT -5
Andrew Callahan says he spoke with front-office people around the league and the Pats should have been able to get Duggar: 2nd or 3rd Uche: 3rd or 4th Onwenu: 5th Bourne: 5th or 6th. (preinjury I assume) Mills: 7th If these valuations are correct, I would have: Traded Duggar unless they want to resign him AND they think they have a very high probability of resigning him. Sent Uche packing Kept Onwenu unless they think there is low probabiity of him resigning Could go either way on Bourne Much as I hate Mills (as a player not as a person)...I would keep him If you could have gotten a 3rd for Uche and didn't and then he walks. I don't know how someone isn't in Kraft's ear asking why Bill is still the GM. I'm sure they already are, but if that's true, that's next level asset mismanagement. Again, I know about 1 in 100 6th-7th rounders are any good, but I like more darts than not. I'm happy with Pop Douglas. A late 5th could be used in a package to move up 2 spots to get a guy you really like in the draft or flip for future picks or acquire a Talib type of player. There's value in these picks. They sign them all then there's really nothing they should have done. The defense should have been good, but injuries wrecked them. So I do get it if they retain them. They just have to do it. |
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Post by marrcus on Nov 3, 2023 14:43:31 GMT -5
The DC team did trade something at the deadline. They should be depleted and maybe not up for the game.
I can't imagine Bill doesn't take this one - not a good thing- but I can't be confident Mac targets some new receivers and looks more like he did against Buf either. They will probably run a lot.
The only way they blow what is likely going to be low scoring afternoon W'ing chance, is if they make QB errors. Not good for the top-5 pick advocates.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 3, 2023 15:02:55 GMT -5
Maybe if we beat Washington they’ll trade a future 1st or one of their WR for Belichick
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Nov 3, 2023 15:06:45 GMT -5
The DC team did trade something at the deadline. They should be depleted and maybe not up for the game. I can't imagine Bill doesn't take this one - not a good thing- but I can't be confident Mac targets some new receivers and looks more like he did against Buf either. They will probably run a lot. The only way they blow what is likely going to be low scoring afternoon W'ing chance, is if they make QB errors. Not good for the top-5 pick advocates. DC lost their 2 best defensive players. Patriots have been dealing with the same and just lost their best offensive weapon. Should be interesting. |
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