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Patriots 2023 Season Thread
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 19, 2023 12:34:08 GMT -5
Jayden Daniels out of those 3 has by far the best talent, two WR top 30 per PFF. He also had 11 TDs in two division 1 AA teams and this was his only great year. Williams and Maye lost top targets to NFL last year and still played very well this year, we haven't seen that from Daniels. Who had more talent than only Ohio State and maybe Washington weapon wise. None of those 3 teams have good OL prospects in draft. NC has a receiver in first round, USC top weapon isn't close to first round. So Williams is easily the best in terms of talent per production, then Maye, then Daniels. Williams has 3 very good years of production, Maye two and Daniels one. Add in the Brian Kelly factor, Daniels scares me. We'll see if I change my mind watching tape.
Worth mentioning Daniels has much more experience than the other two, starting games in 5 seasons for two different teams. That's a lot of experience in multiple different offenses, which I like. It also makes him older, age doesn't bother me, as much as his best season coming as he's much older than the guys he played against. Red Shirt senior versus two true juniors.
Going to be fun watching tape this year
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 19, 2023 12:51:16 GMT -5
Last two 2nd halfs were totally different. First one is Bill/OC playing safe ball. Last game the Chiefs have a good defense and where getting a bunch of pressure while they we were asking Zappe to keep throwing it. Yeah he tried to do to much. Also we weren't able to run well in both games, not ideal for your backup QB. Nevermind Bill not going for it down 3 scores twice in 2nd half. Bill doing his defensive coach thing, but he shouldn't have.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Dec 19, 2023 13:12:00 GMT -5
Feather in Daniels cap: he also put up 28 in three quarters against the legit defensive NFL talent on Alabama (2 - 1st round CB, a top 10'ish DE/OLB , a future 1st round safety) passing for 220 & running for another 160. In three quarters (got knocked from game with illegal hit to his head). Another QB fave of mine, Quinn Ewers, also worked over ALA, but that was very early in the year before ALA got their sh*t together. Texas also has legit NFL talent at both WR & maybe TE #1 & maybe RB #1 too. Michigan does not have NFL WRs like LSU & TX -- looking forward to see how McCarthy does against ALA. Some college pundits are predicting they won't be able to pass it: theathletic.com/5143913/2023/12/19/alabama-michigan-scouting-report-college-football-playoff/ |
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Post by costpet on Dec 19, 2023 16:51:32 GMT -5
We just need a great draft. Hide BB in a closet.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Dec 19, 2023 17:14:19 GMT -5
We just need a great draft. Hide BB in a closet. Reminder: every impartial study evaluating AV return in proportion to draft capital available over 5-8 year windows that I've ever seen posted consistently rates the Patriots in the top 5-8. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 19, 2023 17:27:07 GMT -5
We just need a great draft. Hide BB in a closet. Reminder: every impartial study evaluating AV return in proportion to draft capital available over 5-8 year windows that I've ever seen posted consistently rates the Patriots in the top 5-8. Do you have a link to one? Not doubting, genuinely curious to read how they could be ranked so highly. |
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Post by philarhody on Dec 19, 2023 19:36:16 GMT -5
Jayden Daniels is a tremendous athlete and an accurate thrower. He just doesn’t read it well. Everything is first read or run. It’s a very similar profile to Justin Fields. You seldom see him quickly process in a pocket. Don't say that! Now you're scaring me! I think it’s possible he’ll be a good NFL qb. You’re just gonna have to scheme it up for him. It’s very important that New England gets at least the 2nd pick overall. |
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Dec 19, 2023 19:42:23 GMT -5
Reminder: every impartial study evaluating AV return in proportion to draft capital available over 5-8 year windows that I've ever seen posted consistently rates the Patriots in the top 5-8. Do you have a link to one? Not doubting, genuinely curious to read how they could be ranked so highly. I've seen multiple posted on Twitter though not lately. Sometime between now & April I'll make time to do a search (not remembering which football account I was following). I do remember Harvard folks doing one of them. Dallas, PHI, Pitt, KC typically score well too. tbc ... |
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Post by philarhody on Dec 19, 2023 19:44:26 GMT -5
Fwiw, I’m not a huge fan of the Maye archetype in prospects. He’s got a long release and isn’t as pinpoint as the compact throwers. But Lawrence, Herbert, Allen and Roethlisberger prove that the archetype works, even if you have to deal with some inaccuracy.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,862 
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Post by cdj on Dec 19, 2023 20:26:55 GMT -5
Pats added RB Key’Shawn Vaughn to the PS
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 20, 2023 19:16:51 GMT -5
Trent Brown still going off about Malik Cunningham… at least we know he won’t be back next year. Would be nice if he sits the rest of the year.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 20, 2023 19:56:39 GMT -5
Trent Brown still going off about Malik Cunningham… at least we know he won’t be back next year. Would be nice if he sits the rest of the year. I don't disagree with him, but it's not good he's continuing to mouth off like this. He's a guy I wish they traded at the deadline because he had value. I'm not going to enjoy watching any player walk in free agency. I'm almost positive he's not the only guy in the locker room who feels this way. He's just the only one being vocal about it. Which would also mean some of those early season sources were probably correct. |
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Post by kwodes on Dec 20, 2023 20:23:06 GMT -5
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Post by rasimon on Dec 20, 2023 21:32:06 GMT -5
We just need a great draft. Hide BB in a closet. Reminder: every impartial study evaluating AV return in proportion to draft capital available over 5-8 year windows that I've ever seen posted consistently rates the Patriots in the top 5-8. I just did a few studies of how well teams have drafted relative draft capital and Pats are in the middle of the pack. I looked at 2017-2022 drafts. AV numbers only go through EOY 2022. Including this year's stats could change the results. To estimate each team's draft capital, I calculated Sum(Jimmy Johnson points) during the period 2017-2022. The Pats Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) was 28th which is likely a large part of their problem. I considered a few different statistics. Each used Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) as the denominator. For numerators I used a few different measures of player value. wAV = weighted career approximate value. I would have preferred to use plain AV but Football Reference's draft pages don't provide that Ranked by Sum(wAV)/Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) Pats came in 17th DrAV = AV accumulated by the team who drafted the player Ranked by Sum(DrAV)/Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) Pats came in 16th Average DrAv...explanation below Using either of the above stats is going to give more value to players who were drafted further back in time as they have had more time to accumulate value. To correct for this, for each player, I calculated a yearly average statistic. Average DrAV = DrAV / MIN(2023-DraftYear, IF(round 1, 5,4)) this results in For players drafted in 2022 Average DrAV = DrAV since they have had 1 year to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2021 Average DrAV = DrAV/2 since they have had 2 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2020 Average DrAV = DrAV/3 since they have had 3 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2019 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 since they have had 4 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2018 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 unless they were drafted in round 1 in which case Average DrAV = DrAv/5. For players drafted in 2017 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 unless they were drafted in round 1 in which case Average DrAV = DrAv/5. Ranked by Sum(Average DrAV) / Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) the Pats came in 13th So (surprising to me) the Pats have not been awful at drafting relative to draft capital. They have been about average. However, they started near the bottom of the NFL in terms of draft capital. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 21, 2023 7:33:45 GMT -5
What annoys me about the Malik situation is that there was no reason to risk losing a young player in a lost season. It was poor roster management. The current system doesn't play to his only strength; however, the expectation is that Mac Jones and possibly Bailey Zappe won't be here next year and that the Patriots will be taking a new QB. Depending on who the Patriots take Malik might be more of a fit. If not, then let him go elsewhere.
I really don't think Trent Brown is the only guy in the locker room upset. He's just the only one being vocal about it.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Dec 21, 2023 11:14:16 GMT -5
New Guy vs. Dallas (preseason):
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 21, 2023 12:31:57 GMT -5
The Patriots absolutely cannot win this weekend, if they do, kiss a top 3 pick
Goodbye. There’s no way they aren’t beating the Jets week 18 so a win this week gives them 5 instead of 4. Here’s the important games and what we should root for:
Packers @ Panthers (2): go Panthers
Commanders (4) @ Jets (5): go Commanders
Seahawks @ Titans (5): go Titans just in case
Cardinals (3) @ Bears (5): go Cardinals
Giants beating the Eagles would nice and is possible with how the Eagles have been playing and the Chargers winning would be ideal but they are a dumpster fire so I don’t see that happening against the Bills who have started to play better.
Side note: if the Pats win, the the Bears and Jets winning may be better for us, but i don’t know. There are still 9 teams with 5 wins or fewer.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 21, 2023 13:00:40 GMT -5
The Patriots absolutely cannot win this weekend, if they do, kiss a top 3 pick Goodbye. There’s no way they aren’t beating the Jets week 18 so a win this week gives them 5 instead of 4. Here’s the important games and what we should root for: Packers @ Panthers (2): go Panthers Commanders (4) @ Jets (5): go Commanders Seahawks @ Titans (5): go Titans just in case Cardinals (3) @ Bears (5): go Cardinals Giants beating the Eagles would nice and is possible with how the Eagles have been playing and the Chargers winning would be ideal but they are a dumpster fire so I don’t see that happening against the Bills who have started to play better. Side note: if the Pats win, the the Bears and Jets winning may be better for us, but i don’t know. There are still 9 teams with 5 wins or fewer. Don't the Patriots have a tie breaker with the Commanders, Giants and Chargers though? Seems like either Jets or Commanders losing would be equally beneficial. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 21, 2023 13:12:40 GMT -5
Reminder: every impartial study evaluating AV return in proportion to draft capital available over 5-8 year windows that I've ever seen posted consistently rates the Patriots in the top 5-8. I just did a few studies of how well teams have drafted relative draft capital and Pats are in the middle of the pack. I looked at 2017-2022 drafts. AV numbers only go through EOY 2022. Including this year's stats could change the results. To estimate each team's draft capital, I calculated Sum(Jimmy Johnson points) during the period 2017-2022. The Pats Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) was 28th which is likely a large part of their problem. I considered a few different statistics. Each used Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) as the denominator. For numerators I used a few different measures of player value. wAV = weighted career approximate value. I would have preferred to use plain AV but Football Reference's draft pages don't provide that Ranked by Sum(wAV)/Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) Pats came in 17th DrAV = AV accumulated by the team who drafted the player Ranked by Sum(DrAV)/Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) Pats came in 16th Average DrAv...explanation below Using either of the above stats is going to give more value to players who were drafted further back in time as they have had more time to accumulate value. To correct for this, for each player, I calculated a yearly average statistic. Average DrAV = DrAV / MIN(2023-DraftYear, IF(round 1, 5,4)) this results in For players drafted in 2022 Average DrAV = DrAV since they have had 1 year to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2021 Average DrAV = DrAV/2 since they have had 2 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2020 Average DrAV = DrAV/3 since they have had 3 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2019 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 since they have had 4 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2018 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 unless they were drafted in round 1 in which case Average DrAV = DrAv/5. For players drafted in 2017 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 unless they were drafted in round 1 in which case Average DrAV = DrAv/5. Ranked by Sum(Average DrAV) / Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) the Pats came in 13th So (surprising to me) the Pats have not been awful at drafting relative to draft capital. They have been about average. However, they started near the bottom of the NFL in terms of draft capital. Now go add in undrafted guys like JC Jackson 27 AV being undrafted and the draft from 2023 might be their best draft during that time span. Top ten all day long and people think Bill sucks. Drafting is hard, first round 50% of the picks bust and it goes up from there. Anyone that thinks he sucks, doesn't understand the draft. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 21, 2023 13:18:18 GMT -5
I just did a few studies of how well teams have drafted relative draft capital and Pats are in the middle of the pack. I looked at 2017-2022 drafts. AV numbers only go through EOY 2022. Including this year's stats could change the results. To estimate each team's draft capital, I calculated Sum(Jimmy Johnson points) during the period 2017-2022. The Pats Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) was 28th which is likely a large part of their problem. I considered a few different statistics. Each used Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) as the denominator. For numerators I used a few different measures of player value. wAV = weighted career approximate value. I would have preferred to use plain AV but Football Reference's draft pages don't provide that Ranked by Sum(wAV)/Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) Pats came in 17th DrAV = AV accumulated by the team who drafted the player Ranked by Sum(DrAV)/Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) Pats came in 16th Average DrAv...explanation below Using either of the above stats is going to give more value to players who were drafted further back in time as they have had more time to accumulate value. To correct for this, for each player, I calculated a yearly average statistic. Average DrAV = DrAV / MIN(2023-DraftYear, IF(round 1, 5,4)) this results in For players drafted in 2022 Average DrAV = DrAV since they have had 1 year to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2021 Average DrAV = DrAV/2 since they have had 2 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2020 Average DrAV = DrAV/3 since they have had 3 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2019 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 since they have had 4 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2018 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 unless they were drafted in round 1 in which case Average DrAV = DrAv/5. For players drafted in 2017 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 unless they were drafted in round 1 in which case Average DrAV = DrAv/5. Ranked by Sum(Average DrAV) / Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) the Pats came in 13th So (surprising to me) the Pats have not been awful at drafting relative to draft capital. They have been about average. However, they started near the bottom of the NFL in terms of draft capital. Now go add in undrafted guys like JC Jackson 27 AV being undrafted and the draft from 2023 might be their best draft during that time span. Top ten all day long and people think Bill sucks. Drafting is hard, first round 50% of the picks bust and it goes up from there. Anyone that thinks he sucks, doesn't understand the draft. If he's been good at drafting, why is the roster so bad? |
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 21, 2023 13:36:22 GMT -5
The Patriots absolutely cannot win this weekend, if they do, kiss a top 3 pick Goodbye. There’s no way they aren’t beating the Jets week 18 so a win this week gives them 5 instead of 4. Here’s the important games and what we should root for: Packers @ Panthers (2): go Panthers Commanders (4) @ Jets (5): go Commanders Seahawks @ Titans (5): go Titans just in case Cardinals (3) @ Bears (5): go Cardinals Giants beating the Eagles would nice and is possible with how the Eagles have been playing and the Chargers winning would be ideal but they are a dumpster fire so I don’t see that happening against the Bills who have started to play better. Side note: if the Pats win, the the Bears and Jets winning may be better for us, but i don’t know. There are still 9 teams with 5 wins or fewer. Don't the Patriots have a tie breaker with the Commanders, Giants and Chargers though? Seems like either Jets or Commanders losing would be equally beneficial. If there is a tie it’s not head to head its strength of schedule. Lowest winning percentage of opponents gets the better pick. This is always a moving target but as of now the Pats are not in good shape for the 5 win teams but are tied with Carolina and better than Arizona. Very close with Washington. It’s basically impossible to tell how it will shake out in a tie right now. However, anyone the Patriots have played against, you want them to lose unless it’s one of those teams we need to win a game. So tonight root for the Rams over the Saints Saturday: Bengals over Steelers Chargers over Bills (not sure how they count playing a team twice) Sunday Falcons over Colts (double advantage bc atl plays Car) You could get deep into if you wanted and figure out all the teams Carolina, Washington and Arizona played and root for those teams to win. |
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 21, 2023 13:37:27 GMT -5
I just did a few studies of how well teams have drafted relative draft capital and Pats are in the middle of the pack. I looked at 2017-2022 drafts. AV numbers only go through EOY 2022. Including this year's stats could change the results. To estimate each team's draft capital, I calculated Sum(Jimmy Johnson points) during the period 2017-2022. The Pats Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) was 28th which is likely a large part of their problem. I considered a few different statistics. Each used Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) as the denominator. For numerators I used a few different measures of player value. wAV = weighted career approximate value. I would have preferred to use plain AV but Football Reference's draft pages don't provide that Ranked by Sum(wAV)/Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) Pats came in 17th DrAV = AV accumulated by the team who drafted the player Ranked by Sum(DrAV)/Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) Pats came in 16th Average DrAv...explanation below Using either of the above stats is going to give more value to players who were drafted further back in time as they have had more time to accumulate value. To correct for this, for each player, I calculated a yearly average statistic. Average DrAV = DrAV / MIN(2023-DraftYear, IF(round 1, 5,4)) this results in For players drafted in 2022 Average DrAV = DrAV since they have had 1 year to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2021 Average DrAV = DrAV/2 since they have had 2 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2020 Average DrAV = DrAV/3 since they have had 3 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2019 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 since they have had 4 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2018 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 unless they were drafted in round 1 in which case Average DrAV = DrAv/5. For players drafted in 2017 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 unless they were drafted in round 1 in which case Average DrAV = DrAv/5. Ranked by Sum(Average DrAV) / Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) the Pats came in 13th So (surprising to me) the Pats have not been awful at drafting relative to draft capital. They have been about average. However, they started near the bottom of the NFL in terms of draft capital. Now go add in undrafted guys like JC Jackson 27 AV being undrafted and the draft from 2023 might be their best draft during that time span. Top ten all day long and people think Bill sucks. Drafting is hard, first round 50% of the picks bust and it goes up from there. Anyone that thinks he sucks, doesn't understand the draft. One thing that isn't hard is not trading up in the 4th round to draft a kicker that no team was going to pick before the 7th round and before picking a offensive skill player. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 21, 2023 13:56:12 GMT -5
Don't the Patriots have a tie breaker with the Commanders, Giants and Chargers though? Seems like either Jets or Commanders losing would be equally beneficial. If there is a tie it’s not head to head its strength of schedule. Lowest winning percentage of opponents gets the better pick. This is always a moving target but as of now the Pats are not in good shape for the 5 win teams but are tied with Carolina and better than Arizona. Very close with Washington. It’s basically impossible to tell how it will shake out in a tie right now. However, anyone the Patriots have played against, you want them to lose unless it’s one of those teams we need to win a game. So tonight root for the Rams over the Saints Saturday: Bengals over Steelers Chargers over Bills (not sure how they count playing a team twice) Sunday Falcons over Colts (double advantage bc atl plays Car) You could get deep into if you wanted and figure out all the teams Carolina, Washington and Arizona played and root for those teams to win. Well, that's certainly annoying. |
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Dec 21, 2023 14:16:56 GMT -5
I just did a few studies of how well teams have drafted relative draft capital and Pats are in the middle of the pack. I looked at 2017-2022 drafts. AV numbers only go through EOY 2022. Including this year's stats could change the results. To estimate each team's draft capital, I calculated Sum(Jimmy Johnson points) during the period 2017-2022. The Pats Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) was 28th which is likely a large part of their problem. I considered a few different statistics. Each used Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) as the denominator. For numerators I used a few different measures of player value. wAV = weighted career approximate value. I would have preferred to use plain AV but Football Reference's draft pages don't provide that Ranked by Sum(wAV)/Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) Pats came in 17th DrAV = AV accumulated by the team who drafted the player Ranked by Sum(DrAV)/Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) Pats came in 16th Average DrAv...explanation below Using either of the above stats is going to give more value to players who were drafted further back in time as they have had more time to accumulate value. To correct for this, for each player, I calculated a yearly average statistic. Average DrAV = DrAV / MIN(2023-DraftYear, IF(round 1, 5,4)) this results in For players drafted in 2022 Average DrAV = DrAV since they have had 1 year to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2021 Average DrAV = DrAV/2 since they have had 2 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2020 Average DrAV = DrAV/3 since they have had 3 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2019 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 since they have had 4 years to accumulate stats for their drafting team. For players drafted in 2018 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 unless they were drafted in round 1 in which case Average DrAV = DrAv/5. For players drafted in 2017 Average DrAV = DrAV/4 unless they were drafted in round 1 in which case Average DrAV = DrAv/5. Ranked by Sum(Average DrAV) / Sum(Jimmy Johnson Points) the Pats came in 13th So (surprising to me) the Pats have not been awful at drafting relative to draft capital. They have been about average. However, they started near the bottom of the NFL in terms of draft capital. Now go add in undrafted guys like JC Jackson 27 AV being undrafted and the draft from 2023 might be their best draft during that time span. Top ten all day long and people think Bill sucks. Drafting is hard, first round 50% of the picks bust and it goes up from there. Anyone that thinks he sucks, doesn't understand the draft. And "first round" is not truly first round, as picks 12+ have much lower hit rate than #1-11. Pats historically picked 24+ -- drafting is, indeed, hard. |
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 21, 2023 15:39:08 GMT -5
Now go add in undrafted guys like JC Jackson 27 AV being undrafted and the draft from 2023 might be their best draft during that time span. Top ten all day long and people think Bill sucks. Drafting is hard, first round 50% of the picks bust and it goes up from there. Anyone that thinks he sucks, doesn't understand the draft. If he's been good at drafting, why is the roster so bad? Because drafting is just part of building a team and I don't think this roster is that bad. Zappe from Mac Jones has shown you that. Now imagine actually having a good QB. Take into account losing your best WR and top two defensive players, along with others. If you want to complain about Bill at GM, it's not his drafting, it's his free agent signings. It's he's a defensive coach, so you get the Gillmores and Judons, where's that on the offensive side? Jonnu Smiths of the world? Two OT this year that aren't even good backups? Sow and Mafi have been more solid than fairly well paid veterans. Why if I'm Kraft I force in a GM type guy to help him who's good on offense. Pay Onwenu for RT, keep Henry so you don't have a huge hole at TE, go chase a Mike Evans, go sign a veteran OG. He needs that voice that for so many years was Brady demanding weapons and everything for the offense. Like they need to highly consider going first 4 picks on offense for QB, OT, WR and TE. |
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