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9/8-9/10 Red Sox vs. Orioles Series Thread
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 10, 2023 9:39:55 GMT -5
this is bound to be taken the wrong way, but some research on the guy says that he throws 94-95 ? He is also listed as 5' 10" and 176 lbs, which is concerning to me (apologies in advance on that before all the commentary begins). And somehow the market is going to be 200 million for him ? Is that what I understand ? Pedro was 5'11 170 referencing the GOAT isn't usually the best way to counter. I was thinking more along the lines of Roy Oswalt, Tim Lincecum or Sonny Gray. I was all considering it would likely be a 5-7 year contract to sign him, which could carry similar risks to those pitchers. Be wonderful to get the early years of them, though, but i don't think pointing out that he is a smallish starting pitcher is too controversial.
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Post by costpet on Sept 10, 2023 9:43:10 GMT -5
I don't think it will be Blooms choice because he will be gone by November. He had his 5 years and it didn't work out. They will get someone else and go on from there. They need 3-4 good starters to be any good. Bloom only developed 1 (Bello) in 5 years. Baseball is about pitching, like about 75%. Right now we're fighting to stay out of last place with a Yankee series coming up. The team basically kind of sucks and it's all on Bloom. No pitching, no defense. So, it's up to the offense to score lots of runs, like 12, and that doesn't even guarantee a win.
Anyway, the off season should be even more interesting this year.
PS Cora stays. He's as good as anyone else out there. He can't control who Bloom gives him. He just has to deal with it.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 10, 2023 9:45:09 GMT -5
I don't think it will be Blooms choice because he will be gone by November. He had his 5 years and it didn't work out. They will get someone else and go on from there. They need 3-4 good starters to be any good. Bloom only developed 1 (Bello) in 5 years. Baseball is about pitching, like about 75%. Right now we're fighting to stay out of last place with a Yankee series coming up. The team basically kind of sucks and it's all on Bloom. No pitching, no defense. So, it's up to the offense to score lots of runs, like 12, and that doesn't even guarantee a win. Anyway, the off season should be even more interesting this year. PS Cora stays. He's as good as anyone else out there. He can't control who Bloom gives him. He just has to deal with it. Not gonna get into all of it but just will point out that Bloom has only been with the Red Sox for four years
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Post by manfred on Sept 10, 2023 9:45:14 GMT -5
They paid him 1/4 of what Yamamoto might get. And they lost 1.5 years in his first 4 years to TJ. I am curious, now that we know who you don't want. Who DO you want to sign? I am not totally against Yamamoto. I’m just saying $200 million is crazy risky. I’m not sure I want to sign anyone. Maybe Montgomery if he is reasonable. But do I want to sign Nola to a long contract? Nope. Sonny Gray, who bombed in NY and is 33? Pass. Just because you have a hole, it doesn’t mean you grab anything to fill it. That’s how we got Panda. I would try to trade for a pitcher. If you have Bello, Montgomery, trade, Houck, Crawford… that is about as good as I think you do next year. Maybe see how Sale does in the bullpen (can he be like Pomeranz)?
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Post by Guidas on Sept 10, 2023 9:49:11 GMT -5
Anyone else starting to get worried about finishing the year above .500?
The saving opportunity I’m counting on right now to avoid this is actually BALT. I’m hoping they rest the last 4 games of the year, but maybe they won’t because they get the bye.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 10, 2023 10:04:03 GMT -5
Today we get Ceddanne leading off, Abreu and Urias in the lineup.
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Post by manfred on Sept 10, 2023 10:04:44 GMT -5
I don’t know about .500, but I know looking back at the “win projection” thread, it started with me saying projections had the Sox looking up at the Marlins, which was described as “stupid.” Well… doesn’t look that stupid right now.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 10, 2023 10:09:50 GMT -5
I don’t know about .500, but I know looking back at the “win projection” thread, it started with me saying projections had the Sox looking up at the Marlins, which was described as “stupid.” Well… doesn’t look that stupid right now. More prophesy coming to pass. I picked 83 wins. I'm now thinking that may be high.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Sept 10, 2023 10:11:58 GMT -5
I am curious, now that we know who you don't want. Who DO you want to sign? I am not totally against Yamamoto. I’m just saying $200 million is crazy risky. I’m not sure I want to sign anyone. Maybe Montgomery if he is reasonable. But do I want to sign Nola to a long contract? Nope. Sonny Gray, who bombed in NY and is 33? Pass. Just because you have a hole, it doesn’t mean you grab anything to fill it. That’s how we got Panda. I would try to trade for a pitcher. If you have Bello, Montgomery, trade, Houck, Crawford… that is about as good as I think you do next year. Maybe see how Sale does in the bullpen (can he be like Pomeranz)? I'm sorry, what? You have criticized Bloom since he took over for not putting a competitive product on the field, and you continue to praise Dave Dombrowski for his willingness to make short-term win-now moves at the expense of the future. Now the books are finally clear, the lineup is largely set and the team is a couple of top pitchers away from opening the window...and you don't want them to sign anyone?
Honestly, it feels like you just want the team to be bad next year so that you can be right about how far away from success you think they are.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 10, 2023 10:15:44 GMT -5
I don’t know about .500, but I know looking back at the “win projection” thread, it started with me saying projections had the Sox looking up at the Marlins, which was described as “stupid.” Well… doesn’t look that stupid right now. More prophesy coming to pass. I picked 83 wins. I'm now thinking that may be high. I had them at 79. It's still possible.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 10, 2023 10:18:57 GMT -5
Considering he's probably GMing for his job this offseason they have an absolute need for SP and the financial flexibility to do so I really dont see why not. Would I bet on it? No because the whole league is probably going to be in on him and who knows maybe he's not completely motivated by money. It is funny to remember DD made his big splash signing a $200 million pitcher, and everyone views that as his original sin. Now it is the move Bloom “must” make. No, no, no, no. Many of us have never killed DD for the Price signing. Price turned into 2007 Beckett in the 2018 PS and that was worth the whole contract for me. Those who hate the contract should turn their fire on upper management (not on BC) for botching the Jon Lester situation and putting the organization in a position where it had to splurge for a frontline P. I also thought they botched the Lackey situation. I would love to have had Lester and Lackey those two guys in 2016. And having Lester instead of Price in 2018 would not have cost us that flag either.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 10, 2023 10:33:23 GMT -5
Pitchers break down from literally everywhere, not sure why you're so concerned about Japanese pitchers specifically. Because, again, if you look at my list, it is virtually every major starter who’s come over. And the schedule here, to be part of a rotation, is very different from how it is there. We’ve seen significant problems. And folks are saying the transition has been hard for Masa, with the schedule, travel, etc. Well, if you then say “let’s get our new #1 guy from Japan for a lit of money” — you a) might expect a rough first year; and b) might worry about the TJ we’ve seen in so many of the big starters who have come over. Is that due to their having to adjust to The Show, though? Or is it just because P's break? The RS rotation of 2023 is an example. Sale, Whitlock and Paxton all have major injury histories. Last year's rotation included those three, plus Eovaldi.
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Post by manfred on Sept 10, 2023 10:36:44 GMT -5
I am not totally against Yamamoto. I’m just saying $200 million is crazy risky. I’m not sure I want to sign anyone. Maybe Montgomery if he is reasonable. But do I want to sign Nola to a long contract? Nope. Sonny Gray, who bombed in NY and is 33? Pass. Just because you have a hole, it doesn’t mean you grab anything to fill it. That’s how we got Panda. I would try to trade for a pitcher. If you have Bello, Montgomery, trade, Houck, Crawford… that is about as good as I think you do next year. Maybe see how Sale does in the bullpen (can he be like Pomeranz)? I'm sorry, what? You have criticized Bloom since he took over for not putting a competitive product on the field, and you continue to praise Dave Dombrowski for his willingness to make short-term win-now moves at the expense of the future. Now the books are finally clear, the lineup is largely set and the team is a couple of top pitchers away from opening the window...and you don't want them to sign anyone?
Honestly, it feels like you just want the team to be bad next year so that you can be right about how far away from success you think they are.
A) I don’t know if they are a few top pitchers away. If they had 1 #1 starter this year, would he be worth 19 games for 1st place? Even 7 games for the WC? If it was a #1 AND a #2, sure, that likely changes most teams. But you could be looking at $60 million a year for 5+ years. B) I said I might sign a mid guy like Montgomery. C) Do you think signing 33-year old Sonny Gray puts you over next year? Is Aaron Nola the difference making ace? I say no in both cases. So why pay out the nose for a guy you can call your “ace” if he is not that? Just because you need pitching doesn’t assume it is there for the taking. D) I said I’d trade for a pitcher. E) I don’t “want” the team to be bad. But I can’t wish them into being better than they are. And forcing moves is a bad idea. Re: DD, I actually hated the Price signing. I think it helped win a WS, so in one sense I can say it worked out… but I thought from go it was a brutal overpay for a pitcher I didn’t love in his prime who was starting to decline. But they “needed” an ace. I’d still avoid repeating it.
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Post by Smittyw on Sept 10, 2023 10:37:11 GMT -5
It is funny to remember DD made his big splash signing a $200 million pitcher, and everyone views that as his original sin. Now it is the move Bloom “must” make. Because the Sox are in the same position. If you don't develop your own pitching you have to get it from somewhere else. Everyone seems to forget that you cannot win without pitching but nobody wants to draft or pay for free agent pitching because it isn't a safe bet. Then you get into the position the Sox are and you have no frigging choice if you want to win just like DD. Hopefully they get someone like Mad Max who is durable and not someone who ends up with injury issues.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 10, 2023 10:37:29 GMT -5
I had them at 79. It's still possible. I said 88. I guess I'm the board's optimist? Just gotta go 16-4 the rest of the way!
Hey, they went 16-5 for a stretch in July...
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Post by manfred on Sept 10, 2023 10:37:35 GMT -5
Because, again, if you look at my list, it is virtually every major starter who’s come over. And the schedule here, to be part of a rotation, is very different from how it is there. We’ve seen significant problems. And folks are saying the transition has been hard for Masa, with the schedule, travel, etc. Well, if you then say “let’s get our new #1 guy from Japan for a lit of money” — you a) might expect a rough first year; and b) might worry about the TJ we’ve seen in so many of the big starters who have come over. Is that due to their having to adjust to The Show, though? Or is it just because P's break? The RS rotation of 2023 is an example. Sale, Whitlock and Paxton all have major injury histories. Last year's rotation included three, plus Eovaldi. I don’t know. But either answer makes me a little nervous about a massive bidding war.
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Post by rhswanzey on Sept 10, 2023 10:46:29 GMT -5
Is Corbin Burnes still offended by last winter’s arb proceedings? Not a fan of FA approaches where we “have” to sign one specific player or the offseason busts. Give me a trade and sign for a front end horse, plus Jordan Montgomery. Perhaps there are other trade and sign leaves to turn over around the league.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 10, 2023 11:03:37 GMT -5
I'm sorry, what? You have criticized Bloom since he took over for not putting a competitive product on the field, and you continue to praise Dave Dombrowski for his willingness to make short-term win-now moves at the expense of the future. Now the books are finally clear, the lineup is largely set and the team is a couple of top pitchers away from opening the window...and you don't want them to sign anyone?
Honestly, it feels like you just want the team to be bad next year so that you can be right about how far away from success you think they are.
A) I don’t know if they are a few top pitchers away. If they had 1 #1 starter this year, would he be worth 19 games for 1st place? Even 7 games for the WC? If it was a #1 AND a #2, sure, that likely changes most teams. But you could be looking at $60 million a year for 5+ years. B) I said I might sign a mid guy like Montgomery. C) Do you think signing 33-year old Sonny Gray puts you over next year? Is Aaron Nola the difference making ace? I say no in both cases. So why pay out the nose for a guy you can call your “ace” if he is not that? Just because you need pitching doesn’t assume it is there for the taking. D) I said I’d trade for a pitcher. E) I don’t “want” the team to be bad. But I can’t wish them into being better than they are. And forcing moves is a bad idea. Re: DD, I actually hated the Price signing. I think it helped win a WS, so in one sense I can say it worked out… but I thought from go it was a brutal overpay for a pitcher I didn’t love in his prime who was starting to decline. But they “needed” an ace. I’d still avoid repeating it. If Eflin had accepted their offer and they had him instead of Kluber, that would have meant a 5-win swing right there.
In retrospect, the sequence of events where Bloom said "we're going to try to add two #2 starters," then a bunch of pitchers turned down offers that matched or exceeded what they eventually signed for (Eovaldi, Eflin, Heaney) and they made do with Jansen and Kluber is pretty much the thing that screwed up this season.*
But if they go into this offseason with a similar approach and actually manage to sign the guys that are the highest bidders for, I trust their talent evaluation, and even if you stipulate that an Eflin-level value is not likely to be had, a rotation that's something like:
Bello [Eovaldi-equivalent] Sale [Heaney-equivalent] Crawford Houck
Whitlock
...could be quite good.
*Since I can never seem to make a comment like this without someone saying "Aha, you are Bloom's lickspittle!" let me just say that it's not exculpatory; Kluber may have been their plan D but it turned out to be a bad plan D. Senga, for one, is looking like a bargain; why didn't they go after him? Why not Lorenzen? Why has Bloom not been able to pull the trigger on the trade for controllable starting pitching that he keeps teasing?
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 10, 2023 11:04:22 GMT -5
I had them for 74. I guess that makes me the board's pessimist. Not seeing the vision.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 10, 2023 11:07:03 GMT -5
I don’t know about .500, but I know looking back at the “win projection” thread, it started with me saying projections had the Sox looking up at the Marlins, which was described as “stupid.” Well… doesn’t look that stupid right now. Yeah, this was mostly me, and I said it because I did not expect the Marlins to exceed their pythagorean by 7 wins. (Their run differential is -47; Red Sox are +14). Ya got me.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 10, 2023 11:08:39 GMT -5
I had them for 74. I guess that makes me the board's pessimist. Not seeing the vision. Red Sox would need to go 3-17 the rest of the way to exceed your prediction, which seems pretty likely. In what areas has the team outperformed your preseason expectations?
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Post by manfred on Sept 10, 2023 11:09:04 GMT -5
A) I don’t know if they are a few top pitchers away. If they had 1 #1 starter this year, would he be worth 19 games for 1st place? Even 7 games for the WC? If it was a #1 AND a #2, sure, that likely changes most teams. But you could be looking at $60 million a year for 5+ years. B) I said I might sign a mid guy like Montgomery. C) Do you think signing 33-year old Sonny Gray puts you over next year? Is Aaron Nola the difference making ace? I say no in both cases. So why pay out the nose for a guy you can call your “ace” if he is not that? Just because you need pitching doesn’t assume it is there for the taking. D) I said I’d trade for a pitcher. E) I don’t “want” the team to be bad. But I can’t wish them into being better than they are. And forcing moves is a bad idea. Re: DD, I actually hated the Price signing. I think it helped win a WS, so in one sense I can say it worked out… but I thought from go it was a brutal overpay for a pitcher I didn’t love in his prime who was starting to decline. But they “needed” an ace. I’d still avoid repeating it. If Eflin had accepted their offer and they had him instead of Kluber, that would have meant a 5-win swing right there.
In retrospect, the sequence of events where Bloom said "we're going to try to add two #2 starters," then a bunch of pitchers turned down offers that matched or exceeded what they eventually signed for (Eovaldi, Eflin, Heaney) and they made do with Jansen and Kluber is pretty much the thing that screwed up this season.*
But if they go into this offseason with a similar approach and actually manage to sign the guys that are the highest bidders for, I trust their talent evaluation, and even if you stipulate that an Eflin-level value is not likely to be had, a rotation that's something like:
Bello [Eovaldi-equivalent] Sale [Heaney-equivalent] Crawford Houck
Whitlock
...could be quite good.
*Since I can never seem to make a comment like this without someone saying "Aha, you are Bloom's lickspittle!" let me just say that it's not exculpatory; Kluber may have been their plan D but it turned out to be a bad plan D. Senga, for one, is looking like a bargain; why didn't they go after him? Why not Lorenzen? Why has Bloom not been able to pull the trigger on the trade for controllable starting pitching that he keeps teasing?
In essence, that is what I’m advocating for next year. Quasi-Eovaldi and Heaney… not Nola et al. If it is possible, which is a real if. I don’t know if it enough. But it seems the best middle path available.
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Post by manfred on Sept 10, 2023 11:10:34 GMT -5
I don’t know about .500, but I know looking back at the “win projection” thread, it started with me saying projections had the Sox looking up at the Marlins, which was described as “stupid.” Well… doesn’t look that stupid right now. Yeah, this was mostly me, and I said it because I did not expect the Marlins to exceed their pythagorean by 7 wins. (Their run differential is -47; Red Sox are +14). Ya got me.
Life is trickier than algorithms, that is for sure. You weren’t alone, and it wasn’t just the Marlins. D’backs, Reds… a bunch of teams that were “obviously” worse than the Sox.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 10, 2023 11:15:42 GMT -5
Yeah, this was mostly me, and I said it because I did not expect the Marlins to exceed their pythagorean by 7 wins. (Their run differential is -47; Red Sox are +14). Ya got me.
Life is trickier than algorithms, that is for sure. You weren’t alone, and it wasn’t just the Marlins. D’backs, Reds… a bunch of teams that were “obviously” worse than the Sox. Run differential is not an algorithmic output... In any case, I'm waiting to see how many games they actually win before weighing in with a win projection retrospective.
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Post by stevedillard on Sept 10, 2023 11:17:23 GMT -5
I had them for 74. I guess that makes me the board's pessimist. Not seeing the vision. Red Sox would need to go 3-17 the rest of the way to exceed your prediction, which seems pretty likely. In what areas has the team outperformed your preseason expectations? Justin Turner as middle order bat. Duvall/Duran in center outperformed. Casas at first, a bit. Paxton for a few starts. Bello, but only slightly. Kutter being serviceable, when I thought he would be a 5 ERA guy.
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