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Predicting The 2024 Opening Day Roster
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 10, 2023 20:11:09 GMT -5
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 14, 2023 3:45:35 GMT -5
Craig and crew are already working on a balanced approach, not just L/R but to seemingly all elements of the team.
I am predicting a roster with balanced offense/defense and lots of both; contact/power/speed; strong rotation/dominant pen; youth/experience.
The Pen is already deep and powerful. Top 5-8??? Not much more to do there. Jansen, Martin, Winck, Whitlock, Houck, Murphy, Bernardino, Schreiber, Crawford are special, without even considering another half dozen as they develop.
If the other elements of the team are thoughtfully made as good the Sox will enter the realm of legit contender.
That process, as discussed endlessly here, requires the Sox to add a virtual ace and a ~#3 to go with Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, etc. and a healthy virtual Ace in Sale. YY, Montgomery, Giolito, Others can all do the job. With maybe a top 10 rotation, and that Pen, aren’t the Sox much more likely to contend?
Offense and defense. It is established that this team can hit, but losing Turner, Dugie and Duvall could change that. Those bats MUST be replaced. O’Neill effectively replaces either Duvall or Verdugo and adds both speed and defense. Can Craig replace Turner and Duvall/Verdugo with Turner? Teoscar? Merriweather? Drury? Other? Any would do the job, each have their benefits. Would a lineup of Duran, Devers, Turner, Casas, O’Neill, Yoshida, Story, Merrifield, McWong be relentless and intimidating with contact, power and speed? Too 5-10 offense? It’s not Ohtani or Soto or Trout but no one is. This team will hit, run the bases and improve defense.
So, IMO, all The Sox need to contend, as we have been saying since October, are two good SP, a power/contact DH and a 2B with defense, speed and some power. That’s all Craig has to do to win. I remain confident he will get it done, but reserve the right to be sorely/sadly disappointed if he doesn’t and we head to another awful year. Deja Vu shakes confidence like nothing else, but Craig, what he has accomplished already, and the ringing proclamations and attestations of Warner and Kennedy have stabilized that confidence. Sign em up Craig.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Dec 14, 2023 21:39:31 GMT -5
Just want to mention, because it has been brought up before generally and I remember some posters asking me about this specifically when I proposed a Corbin Burnes trade, that the Glasnow trade is reported to be contingent on Glasnow agreeing to an extension with the Dodgers. It is possible to structure a transaction this way! And I still might be misremembering the Adrian Gonzalez trade, but I’m pretty sure local sports media reported at the time that an extension was in the works (and that Theo’s Red Sox would not have traded that Rizzo package for a rental).
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 15, 2023 0:59:00 GMT -5
Just want to mention, because it has been brought up before generally and I remember some posters asking me about this specifically when I proposed a Corbin Burnes trade, that the Glasnow trade is reported to be contingent on Glasnow agreeing to an extension with the Dodgers. It is possible to structure a transaction this way! And I still might be misremembering the Adrian Gonzalez trade, but I’m pretty sure local sports media reported at the time that an extension was in the works (and that Theo’s Red Sox would not have traded that Rizzo package for a rental). Burnes is a Boras client and has specifically said in interview he wants to test free agency. He is a much better pitcher than any of the free agents this year. If they could swing an extension they’d be all over him in trade, it’s just extremely unlikely.
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Post by SlugLife on Dec 15, 2023 6:55:49 GMT -5
I would also add to that list Garrett Cooper, who is not only a solid first baseman but can also play a passable corner outfield. Fangraphs does not have a crowdsource estimate for his potential contract; Spotrac suggests his market value is 2 years/$14 million. Cooper has shown flashes of greatness (he was an All-Star in 2022) and hits the ball hard but has been hurt a lot.
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Post by dcsoxfan15 on Dec 15, 2023 12:46:24 GMT -5
I wouldn't be upset with the lineup if they added Drury to play second. Something like this, I think, would be solid:
Abreu - RF Devers- 3B Story - SS Casas - 1B O'Neill - LF/CF/DH Yoshida - LF/DH Drury - 2B Wong - C Duran - CF/LF
Throw in an ace and a second starter who has some upside and innings eating ability, and I think we've got a post-season contender
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Post by pappyman99 on Dec 15, 2023 13:59:44 GMT -5
Vague reports today about Luzardo and his possible availability…. I’d definitely be interested
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Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 15, 2023 15:27:38 GMT -5
Vague reports today about Luzardo and his possible availability…. I’d definitely be interested I would absolutely love if they could get Luzardo but he would cost a fortune. Any package to acquire him would probably have to be headlined by one of Casas/Bello/Mayer/Anthony. It might be worth it, but it also might be better to just hand money out to Yamamoto.
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Post by pappyman99 on Dec 15, 2023 15:59:05 GMT -5
Vague reports today about Luzardo and his possible availability…. I’d definitely be interested I would absolutely love if they could get Luzardo but he would cost a fortune. Any package to acquire him would probably have to be headlined by one of Casas/Bello/Mayer/Anthony. It might be worth it, but it also might be better to just hand money out to Yamamoto. I’d really hope those wouldn’t be mutually exclusive I for one, would be okay with something centered around Bello to get Luzardo . Bello, duran, and Yorke for Luzardo? You get him and Yamamoto you drastically change the fortunes of this team next season and beyond
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 15, 2023 16:01:44 GMT -5
I would absolutely love if they could get Luzardo but he would cost a fortune. Any package to acquire him would probably have to be headlined by one of Casas/Bello/Mayer/Anthony. It might be worth it, but it also might be better to just hand money out to Yamamoto. I’d really hope those wouldn’t be mutually exclusive I for one, would be okay with something centered around Bello to get Luzardo . Bello, duran, and Yorke for Luzardo? You get him and Yamamoto you drastically change the fortunes of this team next season and beyond I don't really see what trading 5 years of Bello for 3 years of Luzardo does for them, none the less adding Duran and Yorke. Doesn't make much sense to me, Luzardo is probably better than Bello but he's not better by enough that I'd even want to do Bello straight up for him based on the controllability.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 15, 2023 16:16:47 GMT -5
I wouldn’t do Bello straight up for Lazardo. He’s been healthy one (1) time. Bello is about a year and a half younger with more team control and has shown a great aptitude for pitching. I’m definitely not tacking Yorke and Duran on
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Post by pappyman99 on Dec 15, 2023 16:21:28 GMT -5
Rather have the quality over quantity. And I don’t think duran is much quality at all
And to be Frank, Bello’s peripherals were a bit concerning last year
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 15, 2023 16:30:30 GMT -5
Rather have the quality over quantity. And I don’t think duran is much quality at all And to be Frank, Bello’s peripherals were a bit concerning last year It's debatable if Luzardo adds enough quality vs Bello, I'd say he does not considering Luzardo's injury history and the control factor. If you replaced Bello with say, Houck or something then we might be on to something here.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 15, 2023 16:47:10 GMT -5
Luzardo is definitely better than Bello, but removing Bello from the rotation means it's only a marginal upgrade to the team. The same can sort of be said for Casas, so unless they had another plan for 1B to fill that void it doesn't make a ton of sense to trade him.
If the Marlins would take a package headlined by one of Mayer or Anthony though I think Breslow should consider it.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 15, 2023 16:54:26 GMT -5
Luzardo is definitely better than Bello, but removing Bello from the rotation means it's only a marginal upgrade to the team. The same can sort of be said for Casas, so unless they had another plan for 1B to fill that void it doesn't make a ton of sense to trade him. If the Marlins would take a package headlined by one of Mayer or Anthony though I think Breslow should consider it.I would hope Breslow would not consider any package of Mayer or Anthony for Luzardo, I just don't see 3 years of Luzardo worth either one of them but I am very bullish on them. I also certainly wouldn't trade Casas for him. My package would include Houck, Duran and some combo of guys ranked in that 5-15 range. I feel like that might be in the realm of a fair trade.
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Post by pappyman99 on Dec 15, 2023 16:59:48 GMT -5
I should note it seems it’s all speculation that the marlins have or will make him available
Definitely nothing concrete out there about him right now
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 15, 2023 17:17:33 GMT -5
Making high stakes trades with the Marlins after a Rays guy took control is extremely unappealing
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 15, 2023 21:26:39 GMT -5
Making high stakes trades with the Marlins after a Rays guy took control is extremely unappealing Didn’t hurt the dodgers with us 😭
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 15, 2023 21:54:17 GMT -5
We are, once again, moving into pure trade speculation. Please refocus.
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Post by brendan98 on Dec 16, 2023 15:38:56 GMT -5
I realize the YY, at this point, is still just a hope, but if the Sox were to add Yamamoto and bring back Turner and do nothing further this offseason, I would personally be extremely happy with the job Breslow did, and super excited about the 2024 Red Sox.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Dec 16, 2023 16:51:24 GMT -5
I realize the YY, at this point, is still just a hope, but if the Sox were to add Yamamoto and bring back Turner and do nothing further this offseason, I would personally be extremely happy with the job Breslow did, and super excited about the 2024 Red Sox. Almost agree with you. Turner and Masa at DH and backing LF, DH, 1B, 2B with each of them getting 30-40G as PH and days off would take care of several roster issues and insure stamina and plenty of offense from March thru October. And Yoshi Yomamoto would add a bunch of wins himself. But to get to postseason another solid RP at or above the Giolito tier, and a consistent bat + D at 2B at least at the Merri Christmas level would finish the staffing job of The Brez. The Sox would absolutely have the horses to contend in this division. 2B, DH, 2-SP, that would be a Merri Yoshi Christmas.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 17, 2023 11:12:27 GMT -5
With the Padres' high-spending owner now gone and the heirs looking to pare payroll, I'm wondering if the Sox can acquire Zander or Tatis plus $10M a year salary paid by SD for #10-15 prospect or two?
Part of this is silliness. But, y'know, it would solve some issues near term and they could always trade Xander in 3 years, pay $5M a year of his salary for the rest of the contract and still gain value.
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Post by pappyman99 on Dec 17, 2023 12:14:42 GMT -5
With the Padres' high-spending owner now gone and the heirs looking to pare payroll, I'm wondering if the Sox can acquire Zander or Tatis plus $10M a year salary paid by SD for #10-15 prospect or two? Part of this is silliness. But, y'know, it would solve some issues near term and they could always trade Xander in 3 years, pay $5M a year of his salary for the rest of the contract and still gain value. They can trade Tatis to a decent amount of teams and not pay any money Realistically they are probably asking for Mayer, Duran, and Houck for Tatis
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Post by manfred on Dec 17, 2023 12:18:10 GMT -5
With the Padres' high-spending owner now gone and the heirs looking to pare payroll, I'm wondering if the Sox can acquire Zander or Tatis plus $10M a year salary paid by SD for #10-15 prospect or two? Part of this is silliness. But, y'know, it would solve some issues near term and they could always trade Xander in 3 years, pay $5M a year of his salary for the rest of the contract and still gain value. They can trade Tatis to a decent amount of teams and not pay any money Realistically they are probably asking for Mayer, Duran, and Houck for Tatis Would do. In a heartbeat.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 17, 2023 12:27:32 GMT -5
With the Padres' high-spending owner now gone and the heirs looking to pare payroll, I'm wondering if the Sox can acquire Zander or Tatis plus $10M a year salary paid by SD for #10-15 prospect or two? Part of this is silliness. But, y'know, it would solve some issues near term and they could always trade Xander in 3 years, pay $5M a year of his salary for the rest of the contract and still gain value. Tatis and Xander are very different assets. Even if they ate $10m a year I’m not sure they get much at all for Xander but Tatis would get a big return even on his entire contract
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