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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 26, 2023 20:02:34 GMT -5
Man, the kids... again.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Sept 26, 2023 20:06:38 GMT -5
This cameraperson has been absolutely dreadful tonight
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Post by dirtdog on Sept 26, 2023 20:08:45 GMT -5
Probably looking at Bobby D last two home games.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 26, 2023 20:11:42 GMT -5
My hot take: events are contingent, fate is nothing more than a narrative projected onto the past, and there is no single moment that determined the course of this season.
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Post by terriblehondo on Sept 26, 2023 20:16:40 GMT -5
Listen, say what you will about Bloom, but we can all agree that he did an absolutely massterful job at the 2022 trade deadline. Isnt the fact that he didnt unload Sale at the 22 deadline one of the reasons he isnt here now? I was already pissed at him for not getting under the cap at that deadline. When I heard on the Podcast what was done with Sale if I was the owner I would have fired him right then and there. Everybody here has cried about that Sale contract because it has hamstrung Bloom and any moves he could make. But Bloom keeps it for 2.5 years when it could have been dumped is beyond me. I guess Bloom thought the same of Sale as DD. I thought he was damaged goods when DD signed him. I knew he was damaged goods when Bloom chose to keep him. |
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Post by greenmonster on Sept 26, 2023 20:19:08 GMT -5
You know its a pretty bad contract when it effectively gets TWO CBO's fired
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Post by manfred on Sept 26, 2023 20:22:45 GMT -5
My hot take: events are contingent, fate is nothing more than a narrative projected onto the past, and there is no single moment that determined the course of this season. Unless you count when they filed their opening day roster. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 26, 2023 20:24:31 GMT -5
Even if the Sale thing is true do we know what the return was? Because people criticizing it without knowing what was supposed to come back don’t know what they’re talking about, who is to say it wasn’t underwater deals coming back? It’s also convenient that story is leaked after his exit, as is tradition with people getting the boot on the way out. At least it wasn’t as downright evil as smearing Tito was.
As for tonight I’m very happy for Zack Kelly.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 26, 2023 20:27:20 GMT -5
Also now that I think of it wasn’t Sale 10/5?
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 26, 2023 20:28:54 GMT -5
The Margot revenge tour continues 😀
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Post by wildsox on Sept 26, 2023 20:37:11 GMT -5
How many times this season have we come back from a big lead to get within one only for our bullpen to give up insurance runs that cost us in the end?
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Post by dirtdog on Sept 26, 2023 20:39:54 GMT -5
Even if the Sale thing is true do we know what the return was? Probably the same as the salary dumps with Beckett and Gonzalez. I am not Sale hater at all. Will always have the vision of him cork screwing Machado into the ground to end 2018 WS as a favorite memory. The reality is Sale has appeared in 30 games since 2019. If someone offers to relieve you of that contract, you have to move him. |
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 26, 2023 20:40:09 GMT -5
Good grief ..
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Post by incandenza on Sept 26, 2023 20:41:13 GMT -5
Even if the Sale thing is true do we know what the return was? Because people criticizing it without knowing what was supposed to come back don’t know what they’re talking about, who is to say it wasn’t underwater deals coming back? It’s also convenient that story is leaked after his exit, as is tradition with people getting the boot on the way out. At least it wasn’t as downright evil as smearing Tito was. As for tonight I’m very happy for Zack Kelly. On top of which... Sale has been decent this year? The contract has been a disaster overall, but as far as this season goes 2.1 WAR (both b and f) for a $26 million AAV is hardly what sunk this team. |
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Sept 26, 2023 20:47:02 GMT -5
I think I would try to sell high on Wilyer Abreu
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 26, 2023 20:47:54 GMT -5
On top of which... Sale has been decent this year? The contract has been a disaster overall, but as far as this season goes 2.1 WAR (both b and f) for a $26 million AAV is hardly what sunk this team. I don't really see how 19 starts at barely over 5 IP per start with a 4.42 ERA is that far above replacement level. Something just feels off with the WAR calc, but I can't place my finger on it. ADD: bWAR is actually a bit lower, at 1.4. fWAR being FIP driven isn't too surprising a 2, K% and BB% are good, HR% not as much. But I still question bWAR being over 1 with those numbers. |
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Post by manfred on Sept 26, 2023 20:50:06 GMT -5
Even if the Sale thing is true do we know what the return was? Because people criticizing it without knowing what was supposed to come back don’t know what they’re talking about, who is to say it wasn’t underwater deals coming back? It’s also convenient that story is leaked after his exit, as is tradition with people getting the boot on the way out. At least it wasn’t as downright evil as smearing Tito was. As for tonight I’m very happy for Zack Kelly. On top of which... Sale has been decent this year? The contract has been a disaster overall, but as far as this season goes 2.1 WAR (both b and f) for a $26 million AAV is hardly what sunk this team. This is the sort of thing that makes me suspicious of WAR for pitchers. I agree he didn’t sink it. But was he a net positive? Between the bad games and the long absence, he *helped* sink it by being part of what killed the bullpen. I struggle to see him as 2 WAR if we don’t add how much his unreliability hurt in ways WAR doesn’t measure. Add: second! |
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 26, 2023 20:52:39 GMT -5
Valdez. Need a place for that bat in 2024 somehow
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Post by dirtdog on Sept 26, 2023 20:57:05 GMT -5
I think I would try to sell high on Wilyer Abreu I'd consider anything to improve the club but you can never have enough cheap labor which actually produces. |
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Post by congusgambler33 on Sept 26, 2023 21:00:22 GMT -5
wong is another one that swings outside the zone too much.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 26, 2023 21:02:53 GMT -5
On top of which... Sale has been decent this year? The contract has been a disaster overall, but as far as this season goes 2.1 WAR (both b and f) for a $26 million AAV is hardly what sunk this team. I don't really see how 19 starts at barely over 5 IP per start with a 4.42 ERA is that far above replacement level. Something just feels off with the WAR calc, but I can't place my finger on it. I dunno, MLB ERA overall is 4.34, so... he was basically average for 100 IP.
But by FIP (which fWAR is based on) he was significantly better than average: 3.71. Considering that he pitched in Fenway and in front of the Red Sox defense, it seems fair to credit him for that FIP. The WAR total seems right to me.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Sept 26, 2023 21:06:54 GMT -5
I think I would try to sell high on Wilyer Abreu I'd consider anything to improve the club but you can never have enough cheap labor which actually produces. He’s producing now. That’s great! Looks good. But for him to keep up the same production over a full season next year is extremely unlikely. So many guys heat up and inadvertently overpromise during a cup of coffee. I’d like to see who bites on him as a secondary or tertiary piece for a controllable ace. |
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Post by kevfc89 on Sept 26, 2023 21:10:20 GMT -5
I'd consider anything to improve the club but you can never have enough cheap labor which actually produces. He’s producing now. That’s great! Looks good. But for him to keep up the same production over a full season next year is extremely unlikely. So many guys heat up and inadvertently overpromise during a cup of coffee. I’d like to see who bites on him as a secondary or tertiary piece for a controllable ace. He's hot but the process and the underlying data is backing him up. Hard to tell if it would be selling high on him or if he's a cost-controlled above average hitter. Another question is should they sell high on Rafaela ? |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 26, 2023 21:11:09 GMT -5
Fairbanks perpetually looks like a 12-year-old who has just had an illusion shattered.
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 26, 2023 21:13:54 GMT -5
I don't really see how 19 starts at barely over 5 IP per start with a 4.42 ERA is that far above replacement level. Something just feels off with the WAR calc, but I can't place my finger on it. I dunno, MLB ERA overall is 4.34, so... he was basically average for 100 IP.
But by FIP (which fWAR is based on) he was significantly better than average: 3.71. Considering that he pitched in Fenway and in front of the Red Sox defense, it seems fair to credit him for that FIP. The WAR total seems right to me.
Fair, I was thinking bWAR with my comment. I guess it leads to a different question - do we really want to pay that much for league-average pitching? With a good development system, we should be able to (and have proven) that we can bring people up to provide league-average pitching for league minimum. Said differently, is the cost-per-WAR truly uniform or is it progressive? The first WAR a player provide might only be worth 2-3M but the difference between a 4 WAR and 5 WAR player might be worth 15M. It just seems like you can get 1-2 WAR players for relatively cheap, i.e. in their min/arb years, so you want to save your spending for the elite players. |
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