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2023 MLB Playoffs - Wild Card Series Thread
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 4, 2023 18:25:51 GMT -5
Need to keep the coasts segregated to some degree because of time zones
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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 4, 2023 18:29:05 GMT -5
The issue is that the best team in the league only wins 60% of the time. Upsets are much more common in baseball. So the more rounds you go, you run a much greater risk of not getting the top teams in the Series.
With that said, my thesis has been, and remains, that the Rays strategy optimizes winning regular season games and doesn't focus on winning playoff games where you use your top 9 batters, top 3 starters, and top 2 or 3 relievers. This week only reaffirms that.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Oct 4, 2023 18:33:45 GMT -5
1 down, 2 to go. Go Twins! Go Rangers! 2 down, 1 to go. Go Rangers! Blue Jays window is very rapidly closing.
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Post by manfred on Oct 4, 2023 18:34:06 GMT -5
The issue is that the best team in the league only wins 60% of the time. Upsets are much more common in baseball. So the more rounds you go, you run a much greater risk of not getting the top teams in the Series. With that said, my thesis has been, and remains, that the Rays strategy optimizes winning regular season games and doesn't focus on winning playoff games where you use your top 9 batters, top 3 starters, and top 2 or 3 relievers. This week only reaffirms that. Exactly. There are two seasons, and they are very different. An 88-win team with brutal back end starters can suddenly look very good if they have two great arms. Maybe they should just award regular season titles to the best team in each league, so a team like the Rays have less to cry about when they get bounced by a WC.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 4, 2023 18:36:51 GMT -5
This is going just swimmingly so far.
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Post by Montana Lemonious-Craig on Oct 4, 2023 18:39:42 GMT -5
Go D-Backs!
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Post by manfred on Oct 4, 2023 18:45:53 GMT -5
I actually kind of like the Jays, but they seem like kind of losers. Not mad to see them go.
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shagworthy
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My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,594
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Post by shagworthy on Oct 4, 2023 18:50:13 GMT -5
I actually kind of like the Jays, but they seem like kind of losers. Not mad to see them go. The problem I have had with the Jays, and it goes back to the Joey Batts era, is that they always seem to behave like they’ve done something before they actually have. They very much remind me of the 11 Sox, they just think they only need to throw their equipment on the field and they will win.
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Post by pappyman99 on Oct 4, 2023 19:11:13 GMT -5
The issue is that the best team in the league only wins 60% of the time. Upsets are much more common in baseball. So the more rounds you go, you run a much greater risk of not getting the top teams in the Series. With that said, my thesis has been, and remains, that the Rays strategy optimizes winning regular season games and doesn't focus on winning playoff games where you use your top 9 batters, top 3 starters, and top 2 or 3 relievers. This week only reaffirms that. Aside from rays because their approach is clearly not working as they pitch their guys into the ground, but frustratingly, they will still be very good when all their top line pitchers come back next season That stat sells a lot still. The best team winning 60% of the time is still very significant. Said another way, the field (other than the best team) wins 40% of the time
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 4, 2023 19:12:42 GMT -5
The issue is that the best team in the league only wins 60% of the time. Upsets are much more common in baseball. So the more rounds you go, you run a much greater risk of not getting the top teams in the Series. With that said, my thesis has been, and remains, that the Rays strategy optimizes winning regular season games and doesn't focus on winning playoff games where you use your top 9 batters, top 3 starters, and top 2 or 3 relievers. This week only reaffirms that. Aside from rays because their approach is clearly not working as they pitch their guys into the ground, but frustratingly, they will still be very good when all their top line pitchers come back next season That stat sells a lot still. The best team winning 60% of the time is still very significant. Said another way, the field (other than the best team) wins 40% of the time The best team wins a series 60% of the time. They win the championship much less often than that.
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 4, 2023 19:12:59 GMT -5
Twins are fun hope they beat the Astros
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Post by pappyman99 on Oct 4, 2023 19:14:50 GMT -5
Because upsets didn't happen before? C'mon now. It's not that they lost to an underdog; it's that it happened in this little dinky best-of-three series. It gives the fans no time to even savor their success. And two day games, too; if you live in central Florida and have a day job (a miniscule population, to be sure, but still) then you might not have had a chance to see a single inning of your team in the playoffs. Two games isn't even long enough for a dramatic arc to unfold.
And the other thing, of course, is that the shorter the series, the closer it is to a coin flip, and the more arbitrary the outcome, and the more the whole epic regular season is rendered pointless.
It’s not rendered pointless, it shows how meaningful it was for the 0s to win that division during the regular season, and in general to contract a team ideally that will be a top 2 seed
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Post by manfred on Oct 4, 2023 19:35:37 GMT -5
2/3 is 66%. If the best teams win 60% of the time, they ought not be too disadvantaged by a 3-game series.
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Post by patford on Oct 4, 2023 19:44:59 GMT -5
As of today there are two AL East teams which had far worse seasons than the Sox.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 4, 2023 19:58:39 GMT -5
2/3 is 66%. If the best teams win 60% of the time, they ought not be too disadvantaged by a 3-game series. The all-time 2018 Sox won 2/3 of their regular season games. The all-time 2022-23 Bruins won 79%. The all-time 1985-86 Celtics won 82%. The all-time Pats were 16-0.
Baseball is just more conducive to parity than most other sports. It's pretty remarkable how impossible it is to dominate in baseball.
And if you're upset about how often the best regular season baseball teams fall in playoff upsets, two of the three non-baseball all-time BOS teams lost in the playoffs. It's not just baseball.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 4, 2023 20:00:50 GMT -5
Can't blame it on day games, either. Both Twins games were 100% sellouts at around 38,500 each.
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kwodes
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Post by kwodes on Oct 4, 2023 20:08:02 GMT -5
When do we talk about the blue jays being a huge disappointment? Like 4 years ago, they were supposed to become a powerhouse. Vlad has just stalled out completely.
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Post by bluechip on Oct 4, 2023 20:12:15 GMT -5
I still Disagree. The former one game playoff rounds had some of the best atmosphere and drama going. Yes, it stunk to play a whole season then go home after one bad game, but not everyone was subjected to that. That format and the current format actually does put more importance on the regular season because avoiding the first round is a big deal. That one game wild card round was fun for baseball fans in generally because the whole season depended on every pitch. Yes there is luck, but so what. If you wanted to avoid being unlucky be better in the regular season. I actually don't hate the one-game playoff so long as it's actually between, say, the 4th and 5th best teams in the league to decide who makes it to the divisional round. Here again the three divisions are a problem, though, because that game might be between a 98-win team and a 92-win team while an 86-win team gets a free pass to the divisional round. Curious…do you root for the Cinderella teams against Duke and Kentucky in the NCAA tournament?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 4, 2023 20:23:40 GMT -5
The issue is that the best team in the league only wins 60% of the time. Upsets are much more common in baseball. So the more rounds you go, you run a much greater risk of not getting the top teams in the Series. With that said, my thesis has been, and remains, that the Rays strategy optimizes winning regular season games and doesn't focus on winning playoff games where you use your top 9 batters, top 3 starters, and top 2 or 3 relievers. This week only reaffirms that. Exactly. There are two seasons, and they are very different. An 88-win team with brutal back end starters can suddenly look very good if they have two great arms. Maybe they should just award regular season titles to the best team in each league, so a team like the Rays have less to cry about when they get bounced by a WC. Bruins won the President's Trophy last season. Can't take that away from them...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 4, 2023 20:25:59 GMT -5
The issue is that the best team in the league only wins 60% of the time. Upsets are much more common in baseball. So the more rounds you go, you run a much greater risk of not getting the top teams in the Series. With that said, my thesis has been, and remains, that the Rays strategy optimizes winning regular season games and doesn't focus on winning playoff games where you use your top 9 batters, top 3 starters, and top 2 or 3 relievers. This week only reaffirms that. Aside from rays because their approach is clearly not working as they pitch their guys into the ground, but frustratingly, they will still be very good when all their top line pitchers come back next season That stat sells a lot still. The best team winning 60% of the time is still very significant. Said another way, the field (other than the best team) wins 40% of the time Until when? Mothers Day? Maybe Fathers Day?
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Post by yuchangclan on Oct 4, 2023 21:11:33 GMT -5
It’s a good thing MLB expanded the playoffs, so we could have all these boring and uncompetitive series. Bring back the 1 game Wild Card!! Those were compelling, at least.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 4, 2023 21:16:51 GMT -5
Phillies fans really did turn Turner’s season around
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 4, 2023 21:38:51 GMT -5
Mike Hazan, in a post-game radio interview tonight, after being asked about some of the diamond(back)s in the rough he has uncovered: "... You mention Ryan Thompson. Our analytics guys have been pounding the table to acquire him for the last year and I resisted at first but I'm glad I finally relented! He has been such a key contributor to our bullpen..." [Thompson was acquired when TB released him in August.]
Not a candidate for Sox FO anymore but interesting how he characterizes his relationship with his "analytics guys"...
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Post by patford on Oct 4, 2023 22:22:09 GMT -5
Exactly. There are two seasons, and they are very different. An 88-win team with brutal back end starters can suddenly look very good if they have two great arms. Maybe they should just award regular season titles to the best team in each league, so a team like the Rays have less to cry about when they get bounced by a WC. Bruins won the President's Trophy last season. Can't take that away from them... Serious question. Are you making a joke? I honestly have no idea. People's perspectives differ. In my view winning the Presidents Trophy is completely meaningless. There is one goal. Winning it all. Anything less is total failure. My opinion is no doubt informed by 1967-1975-1986.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 4, 2023 23:00:28 GMT -5
Bruins won the President's Trophy last season. Can't take that away from them... Serious question. Are you making a joke? I honestly have no idea. People's perspectives differ. In my view winning the Presidents Trophy is completely meaningless. There is one goal. Winning it all. Anything less is total failure. My opinion is no doubt informed by 1967-1975-1986. Too soon? Sorry, should've used italics. I was responding to a comment saying there should be awards for regular season titles -- they have that in hockey: the Presidents Trophy. And yes, it's meaningless if you don't win it all a couple months later (although I think the last two teams that broke the regular season points record also failed to hoist the cup... until the following year -- maybe the B's keep that streak alive!)
N.B. I wouldn't characterize 1967 or '75 as "total failure." The Impossible Dream team brought the Sox and baseball back from complete obscurity in Boston and the Sons of '75 were part of the greatest World Series ever played (coming very close to beating a literal machine -- talk about a John Henry team!). 1978 was total failure. '86 was worse. 1988 was magical. 1990 was annoying. 1995 was weird but fun. 1999 was fun but weird. 2003 was awful, reliving the pain of '86, but soon all was forgotten. 2008 was disappointing. 2011 was definitely total failure. 2016 and '17 were frustrating but you knew you were close. 2021 was a heckuva a lot of fun, bouncing MFY and TB back to back. 2019, '20, '22, and 23, not so much.
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