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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 26, 2024 12:05:15 GMT -5
I'm thinking something like 4/90 or 5/105 should be the max the sox should offer to Montgomery. I don't really see anyone out there beating an offer in that range. Anything more than that and they're just bidding against themselves it feels.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 26, 2024 12:09:30 GMT -5
If that deal were actually on the table, I don't think there's a prayer he would still be a free agent. If he's getting 5 years, I wouldn't want the Sox to be on the hook for more than the 5/105 Fangraphs crowdsource, and with no opt outs, especially given the current state of the market. At this point I'm expecting something like 3/70 (25, 25, 20) with a couple of opt outs. Basically Bellinger-lite. Hmm, I'm starting to sense an overcorrection of expectations here... I'd still be pretty surprised if he signs for less than 9 figures and 5 years. It's really rare for top free agents to undershoot the fangraphs crowdsource estimates (though Bellinger did...). At the start of the offseason I would have agreed with you, but at this point I don't see a team for which a 5+ year deal well in excess of the crowdsource estimate makes sense. And if the big-money deal he's looking for just isn't out there, I can see it becoming more and more attractive to take a higher AAV, shorter-term deal with some opt outs, especially in Boston, given his wife's much-discussed residency. I obviously don't know the guy, but if I were in his position that would make a big difference to me. |
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 26, 2024 12:46:14 GMT -5
Not to belabor this point, but Montgomery is eligible for a QO the next time he is a free agent (assuming he stays with his team the whole season, which was not the case when the Rangers traded for him.) Imagine how the discussion over the Montgomery pursuit would be this winter if draft compensation was required to get him, and he was a year older? It's still preferable for a player to have an opt-out in a vacuum, but it might not be a slam dunk for him to want to enter free agency again. In comparsion, Bellinger will be 29 next year and will shed the QO offered this winter by the Cubs. For just this reason (and the fact that he's not likely to have a better platform year than he just had) I don't think he (or Snell) should mess with opt outs at all. Just take the biggest total value you can get, and if that's "only" $90-100 million, so be it. The QO point is a good one, but the comp picks aren't that valuable in the grand scheme of things; just another finger on the scale. I could see something like 5/100 happening, but if I were him, I'd still consider signing in Boston at a higher AAV and getting some opt outs. Think of it this way; if he's "only" getting 90-100 million, presumably we're talking 4/90 or 5/100. Here are the main permutations:
1) Montgomery is incredible in 2024 and puts up another 4+ fWAR season. If he signed for 4/90 or 5/100, he's locked into an incredibly team-friendly deal for the next 3-4 years. If he signed for 3/70 with opt outs, he'll opt out, the Sox will QO him, and he'll still likely do a lot better than 3/65 or 4/75 in free agency. Clear win: 3/70
2) Montgomery is good enough to opt out after 2024, but not incredible. Think maybe a 3 fWAR season over 150 IP. In this case, I think he'd end up doing pretty similarly no matter which of these deals he signed. He probably wouldn't exceed 3/65 or 4/75 in free agency, especially with the QO, but he might end up in that neck of the woods. Toss up.
3) Montgomery is good enough to opt out after 2025, but not incredible. Think maybe a 3 fWAR season over 150 IP. In this case, I think he'd probably do better than 2/40 or 3/50 in free agency, but if he doubts that, he could also accept the QO in this case because it would be a raise over his $20 million third year option. With a non-disastrous season in 2026, he should comfortably exceed the 4/90 or 5/100 deals. Win: 3/70
4) Montgomery stays healthy and follows the JDM trajectory (i.e. he is just about exactly worth his contract but never opts out). The Sox could well QO him for 2027, and accepting that QO would mean he made a bit more money than he would have on the 4/90, and likely more money over 5 years than the 5/100. But I could also see the Sox not QOing him, and in that case I think he'd probably come out on top too. Think about it - does Jordan Montgomery's age 34-35 seasons on a 2/30 seem like it would probably be a good deal, assuming he's maybe a 7-7.5 fWAR guy over the next three years? It does to me. Win: 3/70
5) Montgomery is injured or bad. In this case his floor is making $20-30 million less over 1-2 fewer years. Even in this case, he probably won't be bad enough or hurt enough to outright bomb out of the majors. Maybe he gets like a 1/10 Richards-style deal for 2027 to see if he can get back on track, for example. The overall downside risk seems pretty low with the 3/70 versus the long-term deals, but, Win: 4/90 or 5/100
To me it feels like if you were to simulate his career 10,000 times, the 3/70 would make him more money on average. If he's conservative, sure, he might chase the guarantee. But it has to be awfully tempting to take $25+ million to pitch in Boston and live with your wife this year, and potentially cash in big if you can have a similarly good season to last year. Of course the math varies depending on what's actually on the table (like 3/60 would be terrible for him while 3/80 would be a no-brainer against 4/90 or 5/100, while 5/130 would be a no brainer against any of these), but this gets the point across.
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Post by yuchangclan on Feb 26, 2024 12:57:57 GMT -5
Expectations for Monty's contract are sky high elsewhere on the internet. I saw 5/130 with multiple opt outs. Boras really is a wizard. He sets the expectations so high that you can agree to a player friendly contract and your fans will still come away thinking you're a golden god of negotiating. I saw an old MLBTR article the other day saying that he was demanding 7/210 for JD Martinez the year we signed him. If that deal were actually on the table, I don't think there's a prayer he would still be a free agent. If he's getting 5 years, I wouldn't want the Sox to be on the hook for more than the 5/105 Fangraphs crowdsource, and with no opt outs, especially given the current state of the market. At this point I'm expecting something like 3/70 (25, 25, 20) with a couple of opt outs. Basically Bellinger-lite. Exactly. Bellinger has re-set the market in a new environment where the big spenders are(seemingly) done and several others are hamstrung by crumbling TV deals. I just don’t see how Montgomery is worth more than Bellinger in years or total dollars now. 5 years seems outrageous to me for him. I wouldn’t have felt that way when Ohtani and Yamamoto were signing, however. |
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Post by yuchangclan on Feb 26, 2024 13:10:52 GMT -5
Expectations for Monty's contract are sky high elsewhere on the internet. I saw 5/130 with multiple opt outs. Boras really is a wizard. He sets the expectations so high that you can agree to a player friendly contract and your fans will still come away thinking you're a golden god of negotiating. I saw an old MLBTR article the other day saying that he was demanding 7/210 for JD Martinez the year we signed him. I guess…. I mean he did not work Magic with Bellinger. That’s someone who probably could have gotten a clean 6 year $150 million deal with no opt outs. Definitely sure he thought he was getting a $200 million deal Mlbtradrumors predicted $264 million. What they and boras failed To realize was that the idiots in FA last year (Padres, Mets, etc) took a big backseat this offseason due to their stupid deals I dare say that Pappyman99 could have negotiated Bellinger’s deal with the Cubs(at a lower commission, no less). To pretend that a 3yr deal for a 28yo former MVP, who plays gold glove caliber defense and is coming off an excellent platform season is some of Boras’s finest work seem disconnected from reality. Anyone predicting Bellinger’s(eventual) deal at the start of free agency would have been laughed out of the room. |
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Post by asm18 on Feb 26, 2024 13:42:38 GMT -5
I wonder what discussions are in Chris Young's office at Texas Rangers HQ. Recently it was reported the Rangers hadn't spoken to Monty in a while (per Rob Bradford Feb 9th - "It is my understanding as of very recently the Rangers had not been actively involved in pursuit of Montgomery for a while due to price tag"). They currently have a rotation of Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Heaney, Dunning, and swingman Cody Bradford. But they expect summer returns of Scherzer, DeGrom, and Tyler Mahle.
The advantage Texas has with any offers though: no state income tax.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 26, 2024 14:21:20 GMT -5
I feel like the people pooh-poohing of Boras is pretty interesting. I know Bellinger didn’t get a monster contract like it was reported they wanted, but that was always ridiculous. Bellinger was worth a total of 0.8 fWAR in 2021 and 2022 and despite the success this year, was the 5th luckiest hitter in baseball according to xwOBA. He is free to ask for anything he wants, but I still think 3/$90M is a haul for a guy who has a floor as low as we’ve seen as recently as 2021.
While people are saying“lol Boras” right now, a year from now they could just as easily be saying “lol Cubs” for the same contract, and Boras will look better with the benefit of hindsight.
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Post by puzzler on Feb 26, 2024 14:43:29 GMT -5
I feel like the people pooh-poohing of Boras is pretty interesting. I know Bellinger didn’t get a monster contract like it was reported they wanted, but that was always ridiculous. Bellinger was worth a total of 0.8 fWAR in 2021 and 2022 and despite the success this year, was the 5th luckiest hitter in baseball according to xwOBA. He is free to ask for anything he wants, but I still think 3/$90M is a haul for a guy who has a floor as low as we’ve seen as recently as 2021. While people are saying“lol Boras” right now, a year from now they could just as easily be saying “lol Cubs” for the same contract, and Boras will look better with the benefit of hindsight. At the end of the day though, it isn't really about the projection vs what he got so much as what he could have gotten earlier in the offseason versus what he did get now. Could Bellinger have gotten a better deal in December than he did now? We'll never know. But your other point is pretty spot on, he's got a pretty decent deal at the very end. If he has a strong season, he is looking at 6/$150 potentially next offseason. |
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Post by incandenza on Feb 26, 2024 14:46:30 GMT -5
For just this reason (and the fact that he's not likely to have a better platform year than he just had) I don't think he (or Snell) should mess with opt outs at all. Just take the biggest total value you can get, and if that's "only" $90-100 million, so be it. The QO point is a good one, but the comp picks aren't that valuable in the grand scheme of things; just another finger on the scale. I could see something like 5/100 happening, but if I were him, I'd still consider signing in Boston at a higher AAV and getting some opt outs. Think of it this way; if he's "only" getting 90-100 million, presumably we're talking 4/90 or 5/100. Here are the main permutations:
1) Montgomery is incredible in 2024 and puts up another 4+ fWAR season. If he signed for 4/90 or 5/100, he's locked into an incredibly team-friendly deal for the next 3-4 years. If he signed for 3/70 with opt outs, he'll opt out, the Sox will QO him, and he'll still likely do a lot better than 3/65 or 4/75 in free agency. Clear win: 3/70
2) Montgomery is good enough to opt out after 2024, but not incredible. Think maybe a 3 fWAR season over 150 IP. In this case, I think he'd end up doing pretty similarly no matter which of these deals he signed. He probably wouldn't exceed 3/65 or 4/75 in free agency, especially with the QO, but he might end up in that neck of the woods. Toss up.
3) Montgomery is good enough to opt out after 2025, but not incredible. Think maybe a 3 fWAR season over 150 IP. In this case, I think he'd probably do better than 2/40 or 3/50 in free agency, but if he doubts that, he could also accept the QO in this case because it would be a raise over his $20 million third year option. With a non-disastrous season in 2026, he should comfortably exceed the 4/90 or 5/100 deals. Win: 3/70
4) Montgomery stays healthy and follows the JDM trajectory (i.e. he is just about exactly worth his contract but never opts out). The Sox could well QO him for 2027, and accepting that QO would mean he made a bit more money than he would have on the 4/90, and likely more money over 5 years than the 5/100. But I could also see the Sox not QOing him, and in that case I think he'd probably come out on top too. Think about it - does Jordan Montgomery's age 34-35 seasons on a 2/30 seem like it would probably be a good deal, assuming he's maybe a 7-7.5 fWAR guy over the next three years? It does to me. Win: 3/70
5) Montgomery is injured or bad. In this case his floor is making $20-30 million less over 1-2 fewer years. Even in this case, he probably won't be bad enough or hurt enough to outright bomb out of the majors. Maybe he gets like a 1/10 Richards-style deal for 2027 to see if he can get back on track, for example. The overall downside risk seems pretty low with the 3/70 versus the long-term deals, but, Win: 4/90 or 5/100
To me it feels like if you were to simulate his career 10,000 times, the 3/70 would make him more money on average. If he's conservative, sure, he might chase the guarantee. But it has to be awfully tempting to take $25+ million to pitch in Boston and live with your wife this year, and potentially cash in big if you can have a similarly good season to last year. Of course the math varies depending on what's actually on the table (like 3/60 would be terrible for him while 3/80 would be a no-brainer against 4/90 or 5/100, while 5/130 would be a no brainer against any of these), but this gets the point across.
I dunno, seems like something is being over-thought here, because this would seem to work as an argument for just about any player taking a short-term/high-AAV contract. But there's a reason they usually try to just get the biggest pile of guaranteed money possible.
One thing is that you're assuming in 4 out of 5 scenarios that he performs equal to or better than his contract, which suggests an 80% chance of that outcome. But scenario 5 has much better than a 20% chance of actually occurring.
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Post by pappyman99 on Feb 26, 2024 14:58:37 GMT -5
I feel like the people pooh-poohing of Boras is pretty interesting. I know Bellinger didn’t get a monster contract like it was reported they wanted, but that was always ridiculous. Bellinger was worth a total of 0.8 fWAR in 2021 and 2022 and despite the success this year, was the 5th luckiest hitter in baseball according to xwOBA. He is free to ask for anything he wants, but I still think 3/$90M is a haul for a guy who has a floor as low as we’ve seen as recently as 2021. While people are saying“lol Boras” right now, a year from now they could just as easily be saying “lol Cubs” for the same contract, and Boras will look better with the benefit of hindsight. I guess but he just got a 1 year deal worth $20 million last year coming off 2 years of being barely above replacement (combined) He is 29 coming off a 4+WAR season he could have gotten a much larger deal, just not the crazy $250ish million that Boras apparently wanted At a certain point the guaranteed money talks and I think he could have gotten 6 years for $150 million if teams actually thought that could have gotten it done earlier in the offseason Him getting $80 million over three years is a coup for the Cubs. 3 years is pretty short term these days. I’d say Boras and Bellinger greed left a lot of guaranteed money on the table Just my opinion obviously |
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Post by swingingbunt on Feb 26, 2024 15:26:37 GMT -5
Offering Yamamoto $300M, Signing Montgomery and Giolito, swapping Sale for Grissom, and making a few trades for legitimate depth to add pitching prospects would be a wonderful offseason. I understand one of those things hasn't happened yet, but it puts in perspective how maybe this offseason hasn't been as bad as you'd think. The fact that you listed 5 names in your post, and 3 of those names aren't currently on the Sox, should tell you that this offseason has been as bad as you'd think. |
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 26, 2024 15:47:30 GMT -5
The QO point is a good one, but the comp picks aren't that valuable in the grand scheme of things; just another finger on the scale. I could see something like 5/100 happening, but if I were him, I'd still consider signing in Boston at a higher AAV and getting some opt outs. Think of it this way; if he's "only" getting 90-100 million, presumably we're talking 4/90 or 5/100. Here are the main permutations:
1) Montgomery is incredible in 2024 and puts up another 4+ fWAR season. If he signed for 4/90 or 5/100, he's locked into an incredibly team-friendly deal for the next 3-4 years. If he signed for 3/70 with opt outs, he'll opt out, the Sox will QO him, and he'll still likely do a lot better than 3/65 or 4/75 in free agency. Clear win: 3/70
2) Montgomery is good enough to opt out after 2024, but not incredible. Think maybe a 3 fWAR season over 150 IP. In this case, I think he'd end up doing pretty similarly no matter which of these deals he signed. He probably wouldn't exceed 3/65 or 4/75 in free agency, especially with the QO, but he might end up in that neck of the woods. Toss up.
3) Montgomery is good enough to opt out after 2025, but not incredible. Think maybe a 3 fWAR season over 150 IP. In this case, I think he'd probably do better than 2/40 or 3/50 in free agency, but if he doubts that, he could also accept the QO in this case because it would be a raise over his $20 million third year option. With a non-disastrous season in 2026, he should comfortably exceed the 4/90 or 5/100 deals. Win: 3/70
4) Montgomery stays healthy and follows the JDM trajectory (i.e. he is just about exactly worth his contract but never opts out). The Sox could well QO him for 2027, and accepting that QO would mean he made a bit more money than he would have on the 4/90, and likely more money over 5 years than the 5/100. But I could also see the Sox not QOing him, and in that case I think he'd probably come out on top too. Think about it - does Jordan Montgomery's age 34-35 seasons on a 2/30 seem like it would probably be a good deal, assuming he's maybe a 7-7.5 fWAR guy over the next three years? It does to me. Win: 3/70
5) Montgomery is injured or bad. In this case his floor is making $20-30 million less over 1-2 fewer years. Even in this case, he probably won't be bad enough or hurt enough to outright bomb out of the majors. Maybe he gets like a 1/10 Richards-style deal for 2027 to see if he can get back on track, for example. The overall downside risk seems pretty low with the 3/70 versus the long-term deals, but, Win: 4/90 or 5/100
To me it feels like if you were to simulate his career 10,000 times, the 3/70 would make him more money on average. If he's conservative, sure, he might chase the guarantee. But it has to be awfully tempting to take $25+ million to pitch in Boston and live with your wife this year, and potentially cash in big if you can have a similarly good season to last year. Of course the math varies depending on what's actually on the table (like 3/60 would be terrible for him while 3/80 would be a no-brainer against 4/90 or 5/100, while 5/130 would be a no brainer against any of these), but this gets the point across.
I dunno, seems like something is being over-thought here, because this would seem to work as an argument for just about any player taking a short-term/high-AAV contract. But there's a reason they usually try to just get the biggest pile of guaranteed money possible.
One thing is that you're assuming in 4 out of 5 scenarios that he performs equal to or better than his contract, which suggests an 80% chance of that outcome. But scenario 5 has much better than a 20% chance of actually occurring.
I don't think so, no - the short-term/high-AAV deal only makes sense when a solid long-term deal isn't available. If Monty can get a much larger guarantee I'm sure he will take it, but if he's only getting 90 or 100 on a longer-term deal, and he can make 75% of that guarantee at a higher AAV while adding a lot of flexibility and keeping the door open to cashing in later, that seems like a pretty good value proposition to me.
I agree that not all scenarios are equally likely, but they don't have to be. Let's be very conservative and say he has a 50% chance of being terrible or injured enough that he'll lose money versus a 2/30 deal for 2027-2028. In that 50% of outcomes, what do you think the average amount that he loses versus 4/90 or 5/100 is? Let's say it's $10 million; if he still has a pulse in three years he'll probably still make $10-15 million a year, and in many of these cases he will indeed have a pulse.
All listed projections on Fangraphs are all 2.7-3.2 fWAR for this season. If he ends up on the 4+ fWAR side of his outcomes bell curve, I think someone would give him nine figures after 2024, even with the QO. A SP with four healthy years in a row and back-to-back 4 WAR seasons that you can lock up for $20 million a year for his age 32-36 seasons, for example, seems pretty appealing; he could even get more than that depending on how the market shakes out. If we call it an 80th percentile outcome to be close to as good as he was last year (4+ fWAR), he could easily increase his guarantee by $30 million, which would singlehandedly eclipse the downside of him being bad/injured.
Again, this is all pointless without knowing what offers he's actually getting, but unless some team swoops in with 5/100+, I think he'll consider short years, high AAV, and I think Boston is the most likely destination if he chooses that path. Maybe it takes an even more front-loaded format more like 3/72 (27, 24, 21) to get it done... we'll see. But I guess I fundamentally don't see him out-earning Bellinger on a short-term deal and I also don't see him getting a long-term deal appetizing enough to jump on.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Feb 26, 2024 15:56:41 GMT -5
Offering Yamamoto $300M, Signing Montgomery and Giolito, swapping Sale for Grissom, and making a few trades for legitimate depth to add pitching prospects would be a wonderful offseason. I understand one of those things hasn't happened yet, but it puts in perspective how maybe this offseason hasn't been as bad as you'd think. The fact that you listed 5 names in your post, and 3 of those names aren't currently on the Sox, should tell you that this offseason has been as bad as you'd think. This comment doesn't actually make sense if you follow what I actually wrote, but I know there is nothing that will make this poster happy so whatever. |
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Post by swingingbunt on Feb 26, 2024 16:00:14 GMT -5
The fact that you listed 5 names in your post, and 3 of those names aren't currently on the Sox, should tell you that this offseason has been as bad as you'd think. This comment doesn't actually make sense if you follow what I actually wrote, but I know there is nothing that will make this poster happy so whatever. Nothing would make me happy? You can't think of a single thing that would make me happy? |
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 26, 2024 17:52:55 GMT -5
Bizarre report
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Feb 26, 2024 18:07:52 GMT -5
It seems weird to (allegedly) be nickel-and-diming guys on minor league deals, and yet at the same time be meeting with someone who will likely cost you 9 figure money if you sign him. I can’t even get mad at this report, I’m just confused. |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 26, 2024 18:11:01 GMT -5
I wonder if Kiké going back to the Dodgers and the Dodgers trading Manny Margot to Minnesota impacts the Sox as far as Adam Duvall goes as Minnesota is probably now out as a destination for him.
Maybe Duvall does wind up going back to the Sox?
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 26, 2024 18:12:55 GMT -5
All of the leaks to Cotillo this offseason just absolutely reek of agents trying to gin up leverage. Are we seriously going to complain about the Sox not giving more money to random NRI guys? Why is it that the Red Sox are the frustrating ones for not giving in to the demands of the agent here? |
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Post by grandsalami on Feb 26, 2024 18:14:53 GMT -5
All of the leaks to Cotillo this offseason just absolutely reek of agents trying to gin up leverage. Are we seriously going to complain about the Sox not giving more money to random NRI guys? Why is it that the Red Sox are the frustrating ones for not giving in to the demands of the agent here? yah, Payroll stuff notwithstanding, all of his reporting this offseason reaks of someone with an axe to grind... I mean its highly likely Garrett Cooper chose MIA over us because of Playing time and not money.. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 26, 2024 19:03:46 GMT -5
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Post by swingingbunt on Feb 26, 2024 19:19:34 GMT -5
It seems weird to (allegedly) be nickel-and-diming guys on minor league deals, and yet at the same time be meeting with someone who will likely cost you 9 figure money if you sign him. I can’t even get mad at this report, I’m just confused. Meeting with Montgomery is both free, and allows them to say later that they were super interested, but dang it, just couldn't come to a deal. |
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Post by patford on Feb 26, 2024 19:34:20 GMT -5
Reading that article it's obvious (to me anyhow) the Phillies really did Song a disservice. And yes he did get the MLB minimum salary. Without being severe about it Song pretty much confirms he was being pushed too hard resulting in setbacks and almost a wasted year in terms of development. |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Feb 26, 2024 19:45:24 GMT -5
It seems weird to (allegedly) be nickel-and-diming guys on minor league deals, and yet at the same time be meeting with someone who will likely cost you 9 figure money if you sign him. I can’t even get mad at this report, I’m just confused. Meeting with Montgomery is both free, and allows them to say later that they were super interested, but dang it, just couldn't come to a deal. It is financially free to meet with Jordan Montgomery - but having some of the most important people in your organization (Breslow, Cora, Andrew Bailey?) spend the time to meet with and pitch Jordan Montgomery (an hour?) as well as prepare for said pitch (several hours combined - including from other folks in the organization?) right as spring training is beginning? If they were doing all that for PR reasons that is a giant waste of time for some incredibly busy people. |
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Post by swingingbunt on Feb 26, 2024 19:54:14 GMT -5
Meeting with Montgomery is both free, and allows them to say later that they were super interested, but dang it, just couldn't come to a deal. It is financially free to meet with Jordan Montgomery - but having some of the most important people in your organization (Breslow, Cora, Andrew Bailey?) spend the time to meet with and pitch Jordan Montgomery (an hour?) as well as prepare for said pitch (several hours combined - including from other folks in the organization?) right as spring training is beginning? If they were doing all that for PR reasons that is a giant waste of time for some incredibly busy people. Right but I'm assuming that happens one time in the off-season. Hopefully LONG before now. At this point it sounds more like they're just keeping tabs with Boras (a quick text) to see if demands have changed enough to their liking, but they aren't increasing their offer beyond what they already sent in their initial meeting. My best bet is thats what's happening and it lets Boras use the Red Sox to get more money from whatever other team actually might be signing Monty, and it lets the Red Sox point to how much they really really wanted to sign him all along. Win-Win. Or win-win-win if you're a fan of the office. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 26, 2024 21:09:54 GMT -5
A weird concept but maybe the Sox have determined the value that the marginal increase of Monty in the rotation versus the best of Houck, Whitlock or Winc. and that's their line in the sand.
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