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Post by pasadenasox on Feb 20, 2024 17:29:32 GMT -5
I like Devers speaking his mind. I don’t think he said anything over the top, they need to give up fewer runs plain and simple. I hope it lights a fire under the pitchers’ asses and they prove him wrong, which I think they can do. Hopefully improved defense leads to fewer long innings, leading to fewer blowups. I think better up-the-middle defense, replacing Kluber and Sale’s innings with Giolito’s, and the change from Master of the Mound Visit Dave Bush to Bailey as pitching coach will help improve the pitching quite a bit. I remain unconvinced that Jordan Montgomery has the upside to be worth anywhere close to what the asking price appears to be, so I don’t mind them pursuing this route after missing out on YY. It is kind of ironic though, since this team isn’t going anywhere if Devers doesn’t have a breakout year. He’s got the tools to be a superstar but he hasn’t quite gotten there yet. This team desperately needs 5-6 WAR players and he’s their best chance at having one of those by far (and that includes everyone on the FA market). I'm actually super bullish on Casas. 5-6 might be a stretch, but I think he sniffs a 5-6 win pace before slowing down and landing somewhere in the 4 range. Listened to the radio a bit (yes, I know cardinal sin) but they were ripping Trevor Story and his inability to hit a breaking ball over the last 4 years and how he just keeps getting worse at it and even explained that in the high altitudes the ball doesn't spin as much. How much of a concern is this? I know last year was just a mess for Story, but as an example his batting average on breaking stuff was something like 0.071 and he whiffed on 49% of breaking pitches. Taking a look at Fangraph's pitch data, unsurprisingly shows that Story's 2023 performance against breaking balls, sliders in particular was awful over his 168 plate appearances. It was much worse than in 2022, which in turn was worse than 2021. He actually hit them rather well, by his standards, in 2020. He hasn't hit fastballs well either over that last two seasons. He's been injured the majority of the time that he's been in Boston, so I'm not sure how to draw meaningful conclusions about his true talent as a hitter. To answer your question as best I can: his ability to hit seems to be solidly correlated with his health - so, how do you feel about his chances of staying healthy in 2024?
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Post by iamnotluistiant on Feb 20, 2024 17:37:09 GMT -5
This is a Spring Training thread. The games start this weekend. So far, I haven't heard a word about what's going on down there. Nothing? Alrighty then. I heard that the bullpen plays a mean game of Pickleball. There are not so hot on shuffleboard. From what I've read/heard/seen virtually no one on the Sox seems to be happy down there in ST. The camp seems to be filled with negative vibes (could be the sportswriters/reporters/fans who are frustrated with the lack of anything substantial being done). When a Red Sox icon (Pedroia), your star player (Devers) and even to an extent, the manager all commenting publicly on the need to add some talent to the roster to compete, you know things aren't good. I do hope that this doesn't translate into a really lousy start to the season but it could.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 20, 2024 17:51:43 GMT -5
I'm actually super bullish on Casas. 5-6 might be a stretch, but I think he sniffs a 5-6 win pace before slowing down and landing somewhere in the 4 range. Listened to the radio a bit (yes, I know cardinal sin) but they were ripping Trevor Story and his inability to hit a breaking ball over the last 4 years and how he just keeps getting worse at it and even explained that in the high altitudes the ball doesn't spin as much. How much of a concern is this? I know last year was just a mess for Story, but as an example his batting average on breaking stuff was something like 0.071 and he whiffed on 49% of breaking pitches. Taking a look at Fangraph's pitch data, unsurprisingly shows that Story's 2023 performance against breaking balls, sliders in particular was awful over his 168 plate appearances. It was much worse than in 2022, which in turn was worse than 2021. He actually hit them rather well, by his standards, in 2020. He hasn't hit fastballs well either over that last two seasons. He's been injured the majority of the time that he's been in Boston, so I'm not sure how to draw meaningful conclusions about his true talent as a hitter. To answer your question as best I can: his ability to hit seems to be solidly correlated with his health - so, how do you feel about his chances of staying healthy in 2024? From my understanding is that while he never really missed crazy amount of time, I remember reading about Colorado being worried about his health and not being overly concerned with his departure. I don't have great faith in him staying healthy. I think this year he can hit around 130 games, but there will be Xander-like ailments where he plays through pain that impacts his performance. In a weird way, if he was also atrocious with the fastball then I actually feel better about his struggles with the breaking stuff. Either he was too hurt or he's done as a ball player.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Feb 20, 2024 17:51:45 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 20, 2024 18:01:12 GMT -5
Spring training is supposed to equal optimism, so how can the 2024 Red Sox (realistically?) surprise and be a 90 plus win team?
The rotation:
Pivetta picks up where he left off last year and puts together a helluva contract year by putting together a full season. If any of their starters have the capability of being an ace, it's Pivetta. Of course he could continue to be a Jekyll and Hyde, but the ace thing is not impossible.
Bello continues to mature improve and whatever Pedro worked with him on pays dividends.
Giolito gets fixed and stays fixed providing quality and quantity throughout the entire season.
Whitlock in much better condition with his new and improved body is able to stay reasonably healthy and provide 140 plus innings of quality, is able to throw strikes, work efficiently and be a solid starter.
Crawford continues his ascension and is able to do it for 150 innings or so.
For the bullpen:
Kenley comes back from the lat heatlhy, pitches with the improved velocity he showed earlier in the year last season and is the HOF caliber closer he has been.
Chris Martin continues to be great although expecting another Koji like season might be a bit much.
Liam Hendriks comes back healthy and effective come 7/31 or thereabouts and gives the Sox another dominant late inning arm.
Tanner Houck and Josh Winckowski aren't needed much for the rotation and provide 2 innings stints 3 times per week and are a big force in the pen.
Brennan Bernardino has another solid season out of the pen and I'll nominate Lucas Luetke to pitch like he did in his Yankees days.
Maybe Slaten sticks and is reasonably effective.
For the offense:
Duran continues to be an electrifying leadoff man, steals at least 50 bases and keeps his BA in the .280 - .300 range Grissom ascends to the number 2 spot giving the Sox a solid 1-2 punch and hits like Pedroia and improves defensively at 2b. Devers has his best season since 2019 (perhaps showing better plate discipline like he did that year would help) and is passable at 3b. I'll nominate O'Neill for the cleanup spot. He'll revert back to his 2021 self and play sterling defense in RG. Casas busts out and hits .280 with a lot of walks and smashes 35 homers and is an all star and improved at 1b. Not too hard to see that. Story is gold glove caliber and bounces back with a good offensive season hitting around .270 with 25 - 30 homers and 20 steals. The lineup is so good that Yoshida bats 7th and contends for a batting title with a strong full season and hits 20 homers and over .300. Rafaela is all world in CF and even though he doesn't draw walks he zeroes in on hittable strikes and hits .280 with 15 homers. Wong/McGuire hold the fort and Teel forces his way up toward the end of the season blowing through AA and AAA.
If anybody gets hurt (or Duran is dealt) Abreu hits .250 with a bunch of walks and power and good defense. Reyes and one of Cooper, Duvall, Pham are useful off the bench. Refsnyder rakes against lefties and is the Sox find a LH bat to replace him so he's not overexposed against righties.
Cora enjoys himself so damn much a contract extension occurs.
The Netflix special goes from potential disaster/embarrassment to special documentary of a surprising team that electrifies its fans.
Could it happen? Yeah, sure. I mean, every team can present scenarios like this....well the A's and Rockies can't, but most teams can and probably have more ways things can go right (having more quality depth makes that more likely).
And no, not all this has to go right for the team to win 90. I'd say 70% of it does. Get damn near 100% and you're looking at a 100 plus win team. Have 70% go wrong and you're looking at a 70 win team. 50-50 with this Sox team and you're looking at a team around 80 wins.
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Post by strike23 on Feb 20, 2024 19:32:31 GMT -5
To add to the optimistic note last year the Orioles started the year with a 10.4% chance at the playoffs and we're starting this year at 25.3% (both stats per fangraphs)
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Post by Gwell55 on Feb 20, 2024 22:03:46 GMT -5
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Post by yuchangclan on Feb 20, 2024 22:43:10 GMT -5
In case you haven't noticed, this place has regular-ish posters so you get to the point where you know what somebody's opinion is going to be, even your opinion of others which has grown quite repetitive over time. The alternative is that posting can be at a total minimum where we can all check in each day, see that nothing has happened in Red Sox world, that nothing has been posted by anybody at all because it's already been covered, and then you can be appeased, but given that a lot of posters are regulars around here there is bound to be a repition in opinion, even yours, especially when posters are starving for baseball talk. So whining is okay because it's better than quiet? Have you ever considered less repetition of opinion might open space for more original thoughts & information? I tend to avoid much of the Red Sox "discussion" because it is so repetitive. If one mind has been changed, or even slightly altered, in the incessant battle over FSG spending, I doubt it. Yet, on and on and on, like Spy vs. Spy. So, once per month or two I'll mention I don't share your complaint. This is pretty funny as I’ve seen you voice the “ackshully Devers isn’t very good” take about 1,000 times on here. But I digress.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Feb 20, 2024 23:04:27 GMT -5
Cora was mildly complimentary of Dalbec in the OF in AAA (while noting that the dimensions are reversed in Polar Park compared to Fenway.) I didn’t pay much attention to Bobby playing OF for Worcester - can anyone confirm he was competent out there, or is this just Cora trying to be nice?
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 20, 2024 23:41:58 GMT -5
Cora was mildly complimentary of Dalbec in the OF in AAA (while noting that the dimensions are reversed in Polar Park compared to Fenway.) I didn’t pay much attention to Bobby playing OF for Worcester - can anyone confirm he was competent out there, or is this just Cora trying to be nice? I have resigned myself to the fact that this team is not going to get the right handed hitter that they desperately need, and since that's the case you might as well just roll with Dalbec as your backup 1B/3B and give him some DH time against LHP. Maybe Story/O'Neill/Refsnyder/Dalbec can provide enough thump against lefties.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 20, 2024 23:45:22 GMT -5
Cora was mildly complimentary of Dalbec in the OF in AAA (while noting that the dimensions are reversed in Polar Park compared to Fenway.) I didn’t pay much attention to Bobby playing OF for Worcester - can anyone confirm he was competent out there, or is this just Cora trying to be nice? Found just a bit on Fangraphs for his AAA time in RF over 36 games/308 innings. On the plus side he had 4 assists. He does have a very strong arm. On the minus side he also was credited with 4 errors.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Feb 21, 2024 8:21:37 GMT -5
Dalbec has to make this team if they want him to have any value going forward. Cora pumping his defense up is generous. Is he a butcher out there? No. But I mean from the games I saw at Polar Park it wasn't really impressive...maybe I just caught him on off days or something.
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Post by greenmonster on Feb 21, 2024 8:49:16 GMT -5
I can't take the Cora comments regarding Dalbec very seriously when it starts with "He's a good defender..." I have seen enough Dalbec to know that he will strike out at nearly 40% and he is NOT A GOOD DEFENDER
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Feb 21, 2024 10:52:10 GMT -5
So whining is okay because it's better than quiet? Have you ever considered less repetition of opinion might open space for more original thoughts & information? I tend to avoid much of the Red Sox "discussion" because it is so repetitive. If one mind has been changed, or even slightly altered, in the incessant battle over FSG spending, I doubt it. Yet, on and on and on, like Spy vs. Spy. So, once per month or two I'll mention I don't share your complaint. This is pretty funny as I’ve seen you voice the “ackshully Devers isn’t very good” take about 1,000 times on here. But I digress. I challenge you to find one such example. Caveat: I have, on occasion, pointed out I don't like watching him play, primarily because he doesn't run out of the box, is a poor defender and chases frequently at the plate. I expect more for 300M+ I would guess exactly zero times I have claimed he "isn't good." If we exclude Gameday threads I'd suppose less than 10 times I have shared my Devers perspective (inflated by the recent Trade, or not, Devers thread). Keep it real by keeping it accurate, yeah?
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Post by yuchangclan on Feb 21, 2024 13:00:15 GMT -5
This is pretty funny as I’ve seen you voice the “ackshully Devers isn’t very good” take about 1,000 times on here. But I digress. I challenge you to find one such example. Caveat: I have, on occasion, pointed out I don't like watching him play, primarily because he doesn't run out of the box, is a poor defender and chases frequently at the plate. I expect more for 300M+ I would guess exactly zero times I have claimed he "isn't good." If we exclude Gameday threads I'd suppose less than 10 times I have shared my Devers perspective (inflated by the recent Trade, or not, Devers thread). Keep it real by keeping it accurate, yeah? Have you used the exact wording “Devers isn’t very good”? No. Have you voiced anti-Devers sentiment a zillion times in every game day thread in which you appear? I would say yes. I’m not about to dig through the threads to prove it, but I frequent those threads during the season and that is a majority of what you post. It’s OK, though. I’ve been knocked for being too anti-Verdugo and anti-Story in these parts. We all have role to play. I generally enjoy your non-anti-Devers posts. And I do think we’d all like to see more out of him, in general.
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Post by wanderingdude on Feb 21, 2024 13:12:28 GMT -5
Cora mentioned Jorge Benitez as having really good stuff (not the word he used lol) today. I wonder if he had an outside shot of making the OD roster. They probably need a second lefty out of the pen and will have a 40 man spot available once Hendriks goes to the 60 day. I thought it would be Luetge or Murphy but if he looks really good in spring maybe he gets a chance first.
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asm18
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Posts: 2,519
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Post by asm18 on Feb 21, 2024 13:24:08 GMT -5
Per Jen McCaffrey:
Relievers - Fri Whitlock - Sat likely Bello - Sun likely Giolito - Mon Pivetta - Tue likely Houck - Wed
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Post by redsoxfansince94 on Feb 21, 2024 13:51:22 GMT -5
Cora mentioned Jorge Benitez as having really good stuff (not the word he used lol) today. I wonder if he had an outside shot of making the OD roster. They probably need a second lefty out of the pen and will have a 40 man spot available once Hendriks goes to the 60 day. I thought it would be Luetge or Murphy but if he looks really good in spring maybe he gets a chance first. Does Murphy have options left?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Feb 21, 2024 13:55:29 GMT -5
Cora mentioned Jorge Benitez as having really good stuff (not the word he used lol) today. I wonder if he had an outside shot of making the OD roster. They probably need a second lefty out of the pen and will have a 40 man spot available once Hendriks goes to the 60 day. I thought it would be Luetge or Murphy but if he looks really good in spring maybe he gets a chance first. Does Murphy have options left? He should have two option years left after burning his first one last year.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Feb 21, 2024 15:18:22 GMT -5
Has seemed like a fit but there was never any buzz about Urshela connected to the Sox... until now
(Mods tell me if this is the right place for this, or if "rumors and/or delusional ravings by asm18 that the Red Sox can sign Jordan Montgomery" belong in another thread)
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Feb 21, 2024 16:27:10 GMT -5
Per Jen McCaffrey: Relievers - Fri Whitlock - Sat likely Bello - Sun likely Giolito - Mon Pivetta - Tue likely Houck - Wed Ahhh...baseball again. It is going to be crappy weather in Maine Friday, so a ballgame on nesn will be quite welcome. Bonus will be seeing potential Sox 1st round pick Mike Sirota play.
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Post by orion09 on Feb 21, 2024 17:52:33 GMT -5
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 21, 2024 17:57:57 GMT -5
Feels like Cora manages this year and finds a job in some teams FO. He's mentioned he was interested in an FO job in the past. Doubtful it'd be in Boston but breslow has said he wants to hire a GM just hasn't had the chance yet so you never know.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 21, 2024 18:02:52 GMT -5
They caused me to gain 10 lbs last summer too Alex!
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Post by dirtdog on Feb 21, 2024 18:11:50 GMT -5
I'll take listening to Sam Kennedy over Tom Werner 100 times out of 100. He's a bright guy and the Sox are his passion, but he's trying to be honest, yet not too unflattering at the same time about the state of the team. Listening to Werner makes me gag. He's so awkward. He's always trying to sell you something, and he has no sense of awareness whatsoever. Henry has that sense of awareness, that's why he has avoided talking for 4 years. Ask Padre fans what they think of Werner. Snake oil salesman would be a kind description.
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