SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Chris Sale traded to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom
|
Post by likethewhiskey on Jan 3, 2024 11:53:44 GMT -5
I would trade Story in a heartbeat if a team would take his full salary or close to it for a bag of baseballs to be honest. I do think his defense can keep him afloat around a 2 fWAR type of guy through the remainder of his contract but it feels like his contract could be better spent elsewhere, his bat worries me. Only problem is there is next to nothing available for FA SS and they have nothing in house until Mayer is ready which could be as early as some point next year or maybe never so they'd have to turn around and go after a SS via trade which usually aren't exactly given away. You seem to be saying he's both too expensive and irreplaceable. And as a team that isn't especially salary-constrained but really needs additional MI defense, "over"-spending on a SS with a high defensive floor is just fine by me. Would be wild to trade a guy who's hosting an offseason defense camp for your team that badly badly needs it given the history.
Too bad it sounds like Devers' isn't attending. Hopefully he comes into camp in stellar shape ready to go.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,387
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jan 3, 2024 11:54:51 GMT -5
I would trade Story in a heartbeat if a team would take his full salary or close to it for a bag of baseballs to be honest. I do think his defense can keep him afloat around a 2 fWAR type of guy through the remainder of his contract but it feels like his contract could be better spent elsewhere, his bat worries me. Only problem is there is next to nothing available for FA SS and they have nothing in house until Mayer is ready which could be as early as some point next year or maybe never so they'd have to turn around and go after a SS via trade which usually aren't exactly given away. You seem to be saying he's both too expensive and irreplaceable. And as a team that isn't especially salary-constrained but really needs additional MI defense, "over"-spending on a SS with a high defensive floor is just fine by me. Well sort of in the short term or this season he semi is without flipping a package that is going to hurt for say a Wily Adames or someone like that on a short term deal. Also I don't know if this organization isn't salary-constrained or not, kind of seems to me they are a bit. No they aren't going to have a Rays sized payroll but they also don't show any inclination to be free spenders either which I'm fine with anyway.
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Jan 3, 2024 11:59:44 GMT -5
I would trade Story in a heartbeat if a team would take his full salary or close to it for a bag of baseballs to be honest. I do think his defense can keep him afloat around a 2 fWAR type of guy through the remainder of his contract but it feels like his contract could be better spent elsewhere, his bat worries me. Only problem is there is next to nothing available for FA SS and they have nothing in house until Mayer is ready which could be as early as some point next year or maybe never so they'd have to turn around and go after a SS via trade which usually aren't exactly given away. You seem to be saying he's both too expensive and irreplaceable. And as a team that isn't especially salary-constrained but really needs additional MI defense, "over"-spending on a SS with a high defensive floor is just fine by me. Not to mention he’s one of our only players with 4 WAR upside, and we need all the upside we can get. I think the only way the Sox make the playoffs this season is if they get 70th+ percentile performances from multiple players (which is possible!). That’s the main reason I didn’t like the Sale trade actually, because even though he’s always hurt, he still has a pretty high ceiling if things break right, which is what the Sox need this season. It’s hard to overstate how bad Grissom has been on defense. The defense seriously constrains his ceiling, which would seem to make it unlikely he turns in a 3+ WAR performance (which is, again, what the Sox need). Though I’ve warmed up to the trade a bit, since he hits so well and is so young. There’s always the possibility he’s able to eventually overcome poor early-career defense, a la Bogaerts.
|
|
|
Post by vokuhila on Jan 3, 2024 13:05:30 GMT -5
No new insights really, but they like it a lot from the RedSox perspective. "one of the better trade acquisitions of the offseason so far"
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
Member is Online
|
Post by jimoh on Jan 3, 2024 13:16:54 GMT -5
20/20 seems optimistic given he's had that mark for steals only once (13 each of the last two years and has never hit more than 11 home runs. Even if you think the Gwinnett park limited his hrs last year, it's hard to predict confidently that he will ever hit 20. .280 with a decent number of doubles seems more reasonable. He had 19 HRs and 32 SB in 598 PAs across 3 levels (A+, AA, MLB) in 2022. It’s reasonable to think he’ll grow into more power than he had at 21 too, so I wouldn’t rule it out personally. Thank you for correcting my sloppy stats. I misread the levels.
|
|
|
Post by benogliviesbrother on Jan 3, 2024 16:59:05 GMT -5
You seem to be saying he's both too expensive and irreplaceable. And as a team that isn't especially salary-constrained but really needs additional MI defense, "over"-spending on a SS with a high defensive floor is just fine by me. Not to mention he’s one of our only players with 4 WAR upside, and we need all the upside we can get. I think the only way the Sox make the playoffs this season is if they get 70th+ percentile performances from multiple players (which is possible!). That’s the main reason I didn’t like the Sale trade actually, because even though he’s always hurt, he still has a pretty high ceiling if things break right, which is what the Sox need this season. It’s hard to overstate how bad Grissom has been on defense. The defense seriously constrains his ceiling, which would seem to make it unlikely he turns in a 3+ WAR performance (which is, again, what the Sox need). Though I’ve warmed up to the trade a bit, since he hits so well and is so young. There’s always the possibility he’s able to eventually overcome poor early-career defense, a la Bogaerts. I believe that's what you are doing?
|
|
shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,527
|
Post by shagworthy on Jan 3, 2024 17:25:46 GMT -5
Everyone has weighed in so far and I land at this:
I loved Sale for what he was, a bulldog at his best, but I'd be remiss not to say the last 3+ years he has been a shell of his former self, one that we couldn't rely on so I am ok with dealing him in his final year for a younger guy we have control over who has legit chops offensively even if his defense is a WIP.
I am however a little concerned about the news that the Sox are looking to trim additional payroll and operate like a small-to-mid-market club. The years since 18 have been largely painful except for an overperformance in 2021. I don't like taking a back seat to the evil empire and as much as I despise Lucchino I will admit I miss his voice pushing Henry to be more bold even if his meddling resulted in some bad deals (Crawford, Panda, Hanley, et. all).
It's still early but the clock is ticking now. I try not to be too over the top before all of the cards have been shown, but so far I'm meh.
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Jan 3, 2024 17:31:11 GMT -5
Not to mention he’s one of our only players with 4 WAR upside, and we need all the upside we can get. I think the only way the Sox make the playoffs this season is if they get 70th+ percentile performances from multiple players (which is possible!). That’s the main reason I didn’t like the Sale trade actually, because even though he’s always hurt, he still has a pretty high ceiling if things break right, which is what the Sox need this season. It’s hard to overstate how bad Grissom has been on defense. The defense seriously constrains his ceiling, which would seem to make it unlikely he turns in a 3+ WAR performance (which is, again, what the Sox need). Though I’ve warmed up to the trade a bit, since he hits so well and is so young. There’s always the possibility he’s able to eventually overcome poor early-career defense, a la Bogaerts. I believe that's what you are doing? If anything, I undersold it. Over the last two seasons, 105 players have played at least 200 innings at 2B. Grissom’s -16 OAA/1000 innings ranks… 103rd out of 105. It’s even worse at SS. Same time frame, 100 inning cutoff (he only played 168 innings). Grissom had -41 OAA/1000 innings, good for 106th out of 107. I’m not discounting the possibility he will get better, but right now he is Not Good.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jan 3, 2024 17:41:09 GMT -5
I believe that's what you are doing? If anything, I undersold it. Over the last two seasons, 105 players have played at least 200 innings at 2B. Grissom’s -16 OAA/1000 innings ranks… 103rd out of 105. It’s even worse at SS. Same time frame, 100 inning cutoff (he only played 168 innings). Grissom had -41 OAA/1000 innings, good for 106th out of 107. I’m not discounting the possibility he will get better, but right now he is Not Good. It's true that he has been bad so far. But the scouting reports suggest he should be at least an average second baseman. I would put a lot more weight on those than his ~40 MLB games at the position.
|
|
|
Post by chaimtime on Jan 3, 2024 17:44:42 GMT -5
I believe that's what you are doing? If anything, I undersold it. Over the last two seasons, 105 players have played at least 200 innings at 2B. Grissom’s -16 OAA/1000 innings ranks… 103rd out of 105. It’s even worse at SS. Same time frame, 100 inning cutoff (he only played 168 innings). Grissom had -41 OAA/1000 innings, good for 106th out of 107. I’m not discounting the possibility he will get better, but right now he is Not Good. The defense at short has been absolutely atrocious, I don’t think there’s much argument there. I do think it’s unwise to extrapolate out such a small sample defensively, though. It’s really easy to get a crooked number like that because the main way mediocre defensive infielders build up defensive value is by making a lot of routine plays, which you need reps for. I have a hard time believing he’s worse than Valdez, at least. And like a lot of people have talked about, the speed of the game at the MLB level is on a whole other planet from the minor leagues, so I’m willing to give a guy who was rushed up to the big leagues and put at a position he didn’t have much experience at the benefit of the doubt. Does seem like there’s a good chance for some growing pains this year, though.
|
|
|
Post by orion09 on Jan 3, 2024 18:01:31 GMT -5
Maybe I’m being a little harsh - it’s true that it’s all SSS. In his first year in the league (almost all at 2B) he had a 120 wRC+, which, even with bad defense, was still good for 0.7 fWAR, or 3 WAR/600 PA. Again, this is extrapolating out a SSS.
If he were a league average defender at 2B, that would be worth roughly another 1 WAR/600 PA.
Of course, last year he didn’t hit nearly as well (78 wRC+, almost all at SS), though in an even smaller sample size. It’s possible that some of those offensive struggles stemmed from feeling uncomfortable at a position he is really bad at, or from the inconsistent playing time.
FWIW, Fangraphs has him projected for a 110 wRC+, which feels about right to me, and which is still good for 2.3 WAR across 532 PA.
There is more upside here than I gave him credit for. You can dream on him hitting for 120 wRC+, which, if he could grow into average/slightly below-average defense, would be a 3-4 WAR player.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,201
|
Post by cdj on Jan 3, 2024 18:52:19 GMT -5
I expect him to be a little below average defensively to start but once he’s there every day for awhile he’ll be perfectly fine
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,387
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jan 3, 2024 18:59:14 GMT -5
Considering the Sox got -1.9 bWAR from 2nd baseman last season the bar is pretty low for grissom to be an improvement at what we saw last year. I'm bullish on his chances to provide above average offense, the defense is obviously the question and likely why he was dealt in a deal for Chris Sale instead of Dylan Cease or some other more reliable pitcher, not that sale doesn't have value he does.
Either way I'd give grissom plenty of rope and see if he can blossom into a good 1-2 hole hitter and average defender. Even a if he's slightly below average defensively his bat ought to make him a capable 2nd base option at the least.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 3, 2024 20:04:00 GMT -5
Everyone has weighed in so far and I land at this: I loved Sale for what he was, a bulldog at his best, but I'd be remiss not to say the last 3+ years he has been a shell of his former self, one that we couldn't rely on so I am ok with dealing him in his final year for a younger guy we have control over who has legit chops offensively even if his defense is a WIP. I am however a little concerned about the news that the Sox are looking to trim additional payroll and operate like a small-to-mid-market club. The years since 18 have been largely painful except for an overperformance in 2021. I don't like taking a back seat to the evil empire and as much as I despise Lucchino I will admit I miss his voice pushing Henry to be more bold even if his meddling resulted in some bad deals (Crawford, Panda, Hanley, et. all). It's still early but the clock is ticking now. I try not to be too over the top before all of the cards have been shown, but so far I'm meh. Regarding the bold. First off it's speculation, not news. Second as always unnamed sources from guys who are more interested in generating traffic than presenting the whole picture and third, and most important, there's no context and the resulting conclusion "like a small market team" assumes Red Sox management are dumb or don't care. Has anyone looked at why they might want to cut payroll now ? Is it at all possible that they are thinking ahead or do they need to confine their thinking to 2024 ? There's still players to sign and a balance between signing free agents and extending controlled players now and in the future will need to be found. Casas and Bello are obvious but don't sleep on Houck, Crawford, Wincowski and Duran. Why think ahead ? Grissom, Anthony, Teel, Mayer, Rafaela, Abreu and on and on and on. Sustainable excellence doesn't just happen For my money, Lou Merloni seems to be about the only Red Sox twitter talking head that insn't just looking for clicks. Haha, that could change.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 3, 2024 23:32:38 GMT -5
Everyone has weighed in so far and I land at this: I loved Sale for what he was, a bulldog at his best, but I'd be remiss not to say the last 3+ years he has been a shell of his former self, one that we couldn't rely on so I am ok with dealing him in his final year for a younger guy we have control over who has legit chops offensively even if his defense is a WIP. I am however a little concerned about the news that the Sox are looking to trim additional payroll and operate like a small-to-mid-market club. The years since 18 have been largely painful except for an overperformance in 2021. I don't like taking a back seat to the evil empire and as much as I despise Lucchino I will admit I miss his voice pushing Henry to be more bold even if his meddling resulted in some bad deals (Crawford, Panda, Hanley, et. all). It's still early but the clock is ticking now. I try not to be too over the top before all of the cards have been shown, but so far I'm meh. Regarding the bold. First off it's speculation, not news. Second as always unnamed sources from guys who are more interested in generating traffic than presenting the whole picture and third, and most important, there's no context and the resulting conclusion "like a small market team" assumes Red Sox management are dumb or don't care. Has anyone looked at why they might want to cut payroll now ? Is it at all possible that they are thinking ahead or do they need to confine their thinking to 2024 ? There's still players to sign and a balance between signing free agents and extending controlled players now and in the future will need to be found. Casas and Bello are obvious but don't sleep on Houck, Crawford, Wincowski and Duran. Why think ahead ? Grissom, Anthony, Teel, Mayer, Rafaela, Abreu and on and on and on. Sustainable excellence doesn't just happen For my money, Lou Merloni seems to be about the only Red Sox twitter talking head that insn't just looking for clicks. Haha, that could change. Maybe they're planning to be wicked aggressive with one of the remaining 9-figure FAs and are carving out some space for that contract? We're barely halfway through the off-season. They could also, as you say, be looking ahead and acknowledging internally that the current hole is too deep to dig out of in one off-season given the current FA class. The amount of panic generated by that one tweet (that obviously quoted an agent with an agent's agenda) is ridiculous.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 4, 2024 1:17:21 GMT -5
Regarding the bold. First off it's speculation, not news. Second as always unnamed sources from guys who are more interested in generating traffic than presenting the whole picture and third, and most important, there's no context and the resulting conclusion "like a small market team" assumes Red Sox management are dumb or don't care. Has anyone looked at why they might want to cut payroll now ? Is it at all possible that they are thinking ahead or do they need to confine their thinking to 2024 ? There's still players to sign and a balance between signing free agents and extending controlled players now and in the future will need to be found. Casas and Bello are obvious but don't sleep on Houck, Crawford, Wincowski and Duran. Why think ahead ? Grissom, Anthony, Teel, Mayer, Rafaela, Abreu and on and on and on. Sustainable excellence doesn't just happen For my money, Lou Merloni seems to be about the only Red Sox twitter talking head that insn't just looking for clicks. Haha, that could change. Maybe they're planning to be wicked aggressive with one of the remaining 9-figure FAs and are carving out some space for that contract? We're barely halfway through the off-season. They could also, as you say, be looking ahead and acknowledging internally that the current hole is too deep to dig out of in one off-season given the current FA class. The amount of panic generated by that one tweet (that obviously quoted an agent with an agent's agenda) is ridiculous. Maybe relative to whatever the plan is, that was a planted "leak". Breslow's no dummy, I don't think you want to play against him in poker. To me. a trade with a pre arrangement of an extension seems more likely than any of the free agents I see. Similar to the Dodgers/Rays and Glasnow. I'm hoping for Corbin Burns. He recently switched to Boras and for this purpose, I view that as a good thing. He won't be cheap though.
|
|
|
Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 4, 2024 10:13:27 GMT -5
Sale signed a two-year $38 million contract extension with the Braves, which includes an $18 million club option for 2026, per Robert Murray.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 5,387
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Jan 4, 2024 10:16:52 GMT -5
Sale signed a two-year $38 million contract extension with the Braves, which includes an $18 million club option for 2026, per Robert Murray. I assume that means they tore up his club/vesting option? That's risky on their part to tack on two guaranteed years but for just 19M a year and only two years plus the option I get it on their part. Unless I'm mistaken wouldn't that club option be for the 2027 season since he's already signed for 2024, they added two years for 25+26? Edit: nevermind I see Passan tweeted that the deal starts this season so the club option is for 2026. Kind of confusing but I guess I get it.
|
|
|
Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 4, 2024 10:27:44 GMT -5
Contract novice question here, but since they revamped his contract structure for 2024 does that mean the Sox are no longer on the hook for that $17 million they sent from a CBT threshold perspective?
|
|
|
Post by kwodes on Jan 4, 2024 10:29:42 GMT -5
Contract novice question here, but since they revamped his contract structure for 2024 does that mean the Sox are no longer on the hook for that $17 million they sent from a CBT threshold perspective? I had the exact same reaction when I saw that.
|
|
|
Post by asm19 on Jan 4, 2024 10:38:06 GMT -5
Sale signed a two-year $38 million contract extension with the Braves, which includes an $18 million club option for 2026, per Robert Murray. Hold up while I pull up a beach chair for Alex Anthopoulos on Chris Sale Island 🌴... I think Stats had raised the question on Twitter - maybe this extension was a pre-requisite for Sale waving his no-trade clause?
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,410
|
Post by radiohix on Jan 4, 2024 10:39:42 GMT -5
Contract novice question here, but since they revamped his contract structure for 2024 does that mean the Sox are no longer on the hook for that $17 million they sent from a CBT threshold perspective? According to RedSoxPayroll on X, nothing
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 4, 2024 10:43:01 GMT -5
Sale signed a two-year $38 million contract extension with the Braves, which includes an $18 million club option for 2026, per Robert Murray. Hold up while I pull up a beach chair for Alex Anthopoulos on Chris Sale Island 🌴... I think Stats had raised the question on Twitter - maybe this extension was a pre-requisite for Sale waving his no-trade clause? That’s the only way that this makes sense to me, from the Braves’ perspective.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Jan 4, 2024 10:44:04 GMT -5
It’s not the craziest thing. They already had him for this year on a 1/10 or whatever. They lock him in next year on a 1/17 which is in the realm of what he’s likely to get even if he only pitches 100 innings, maybe slightly high, but much lower than he’d get with a bigger bounce back. Then they get a 2026 option.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 4, 2024 10:53:38 GMT -5
Hold up while I pull up a beach chair for Alex Anthopoulos on Chris Sale Island 🌴... I think Stats had raised the question on Twitter - maybe this extension was a pre-requisite for Sale waving his no-trade clause? That’s the only way that this makes sense to me, from the Braves’ perspective. Alex just reported this was after the trade. Dude got traded from a team that finished in last to the team that had the best record in baseball. I don't think it's crazy to assume that was enough.
|
|
|