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What are the best/worst case scenarios for 2024?
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 21, 2024 12:10:54 GMT -5
Best: Devers re-emerges as a possible MVP-level contributor and Rafaela is ready enough with the bat, solidifying the outfield defense. Boosted by one of the best infields in baseball and a deep, flexible pitching staff, they are in contention. A trade for pending free agent Shane Bieber at the deadline gives the team the frontline starter it needed to overtake a young Orioles team and a Yankee squad that doesn't have enough depth in order win the division and to make a run through through the playoffs.
Worst: Stagnation by the guys who emerged in 2023 (Bello, Casas, Duran, Wong) and a pitching staff where Whitlock and Houck continue to struggle with consistency is full of swingmen and tweeners, leaving them with the sort of mediocre core that is stuck in the 73-79 win range.
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Post by wamderingdude on Feb 21, 2024 12:23:59 GMT -5
Best Case: Story and Devers get to 5 war seasons by getting their respective weaknesses up to league average or slightly above and letting their strengths carry them. Duran and Casas get to 3-4 War and look like above average regulars at a minimum (Casas looks like one of the best hitters in the league, but it’s much harder to accumulate 1b war). The rest of the lineup sits in 1-3 range and they are a top 10 position player group. Bailey/Willard make a huge impact on pitching side and Bello looks like a true 2, giolito and Pivetta solid 3s, and two of Kutter/winck/whitlock/houck look like true starters. Bullpen is elite and they win 90 games and get a wildcard.
Worst Case: Devers can’t fix his defense and Story can’t hit anymore. Casas is good but maybe not a star, at least this year, Durans 2023 looks more like an outlier than who he is, and the rest of the lineup is more 0-1 war players than 1-2. Finish 15-20th in position player rankings. Turns out Dave Bush didn’t suck and it was actually just a lack of talent and the rotation is made up of a bunch of 4s and 5s with one guy looking like a 3. They win 72 games and don’t win the lottery.
Obviously it’s gonna somewhere in the middle. I think they win 82 games and miss the wildcard, but we have a clear picture of who the core is and we see fireworks (trades and signings) after Breslow gets a clear eval on the major league team and the prospects. I think the best and worst case for the prospects are more clear cut, but honestly at this point those guys developments are more important than the 2024 team to me.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,799
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Post by nomar on Feb 21, 2024 12:39:33 GMT -5
Best: the players and fans regain confidence in the direction and future of the org
Worst: prospects and young players falling flat, more murkiness going forward
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Post by bettsonmookie on Feb 21, 2024 12:59:12 GMT -5
Best:
-the new brainpower helps maximize the pitching talent, unlocking more from Crawford/Houck/Whitlock, etc. -Casas and Devers show they can coexist on the corners long-term -rentals (Jansen/Martin/O'Neill/Pivetta) play well and are sold off at deadline to further bolster pitching pipeline
Worst:
-The rotation looks like a bunch of #4/#5 starters and the brainpower don't move the needle -Devers is a complete liability at 3B, complicating the Casas extension equation -They straddle the line of competing, do not sell at deadline, and do not make the playoffs
I think this roster could win a weak division, but do not see them being a threat in the '24 AL East, even if things go well.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 21, 2024 13:23:27 GMT -5
Setting health questions aside because obviously both best and worst case scenarios rely on health skewing one way I'll try to put some realistic best and worst case outcomes.
Best:
- Story bounces back to prior form and Devers progresses and you have two 5+ WAR guys - Yoshida and Casas and/or O'Neill maintain their offensive form for a full year and you have a couple 3/4 WAR slgugers - The young outfielders (Duran, Rafaela, Abreu) succeed in aggregate - 2-3 of the young pitchers are good (Bello, Crawford, Whitlock/Houck)
Worst:
- Performance breakdowns from the young players, I think Duran, Crawford, Rafaela are the most likely in this category - Story and Yoshida flop on offense and Giolito is bad and they are stuck with three bad deals for 2+ years - None of Whitlock/Houck/Winck establishes as a rotation guy and they have a hole there all season that they had the opportunity to close in the off-season and declined to do so
In any case predictions that they might win as few as 60 games are absurd.
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Post by sxfan on Feb 21, 2024 14:22:06 GMT -5
I think the worst case scenario is if one of Pivetta, Bello, or Giolito gets hurt. Those are your 3 guys that will probably eat 170-180 innings this year. Crawford and Whitlock/Houck won't eat much at the back end, you're probably getting 250 innings combined with all three of them. There's a very realistic shot Dick Fitts is spot starting games in June, because they have nothing else to go to. The rotation depth is one of the worsts in MLB. Pivetta and Giolito could get flipped by the trade deadline, if this scenario happens. Which would make the situation even more dire. Dick Fitts is what, the #10 starter? Giolito, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck, Winckowski, and Criswell are in front of him for sure, and I'm assuming they'd call up Walter before him early in the year because Walter's already on the 40-man and Fitts hasn't had any AAA experience yet. If Fitts is pitching in June out of necessity, not because he's not absolutely dominating in AAA, that means the entire projected rotation is injured or unplayably bad, and at that point the issue isn't lack of depth. I think the starting depth is okay. Not exceptional, but enough to be fine with average injury luck. A lot does depend on how much you believe in Winck and Criswell, though. Edit: Crawford, Whitlock, and Houck also threw 307 innings last year, and that's with Houck breaking his face, Whitlock also missing a good amount of time due to injury, and Crawford and Whitlock pitching out of the pen for a chunk of the year. 307 innings feels closer to the floor for 2024 if these guys are all needed in the rotation for most of the year. Sorry for not clarifying, I meant 250 innings in the rotation between Whitlock/Houck and Crawford*** I'm assuming whoever loses the starting pitching spot between Houck and Whitlock, is going to the back end of the bullpen. So I wouldn't count them as starting pitching options past that point. I don't think you can count on Crawford or Houck/Whitlock for more than 130 innings a piece. Just too much uncertainty between both of those staying healthy and going deep into games.
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Post by Don Caballero on Feb 21, 2024 14:28:18 GMT -5
a deep, flexible pitching staff This reads like an euphemism for "a bunch of middling pitchers".
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 21, 2024 14:46:19 GMT -5
a deep, flexible pitching staff This reads like an euphemism for "a bunch of middling pitchers". What value does this add? Obviously when talking about the best case scenario it means the pitchers pitch well and the guys who lose out in the competition for the fifth spot in the rotation pitch well out of the bullpen while providing good innings when called on to start. If they’re all middling then that would not be the best case scenario.
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Post by bishop on Feb 21, 2024 15:37:41 GMT -5
BEST: Regardless of record a handful or more of guys at the MLB or full season minors levels continue progressing towards being the elite cost controlled assets that can be the foundation of the next World Series contender.
WORST: That happens but we're about .500 and I can't stay off twitter so the relentless negativity of fans who are pissed about the Mookie decision or the on field results at the end of last season by a worse constructed team hit hard by injuries wears me down and I don't enjoy watching the youngsters break out.
actually...
WORST: John Henry/"FSG" listen to that increasingly loud section of the fanbase and make an abrupt course change to chase mid-high 80's wins and a Wild Card spot at the expense of youngsters with elite potential via trade or cap flexibility by meeting Boras's insane ask for guys like Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger who offer a higher 2024 floor but worse value when it will hopefully matter a lot more.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 21, 2024 16:17:58 GMT -5
a deep, flexible pitching staff This reads like an euphemism for "a bunch of middling pitchers". Hence the risk portion ("full of swingmen and tweeners") of my post!
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 21, 2024 16:35:41 GMT -5
Best scenario: I see an absolute ceiling of 90 wins. That would require Giolito to be an innings eater and effective at run suppression; Bello taking a leap; Kutter and Pivetta to be their best selves throughout the season. We'd need the defense to magically fix itself. (I say magically because on any given day, they're going to have several bad defenders on the field, even with Yoshi at DH.)
On offense, Devers and Casas would have to crush, Story would have to contribute something and two of O'Neill, Abreu and Grissom would have to be reasonably productive.
Worst scenario: The Red Sox are giving us the phony tease of a being a PS team at the deadline and CB2 fails to move assets for whatever he can get for them. The team ends up around .500, out of the PS, with a middling draft pick position for 2025, and no new assets.
Or put another way, if the Red Sox have an uphill fight to make the PS at the trade deadline despite good years from KJ and Chris Martin and those two guys are still on the team at the end of the season, we're in the worst-case scenario.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 21, 2024 16:51:53 GMT -5
Some of these "best case" scenarios crack me up since they're basically saying best case they hover around .500 the whole season. Best case scenario, Giolito pitches like his 2019-2021 self who was among the best in the game, Pivetta harnesses what he did in 2nd half of last year for a full year and Bello develops more consistency and takes a step forward. That would give them arguably as good of a 1-2-3 punch in the rotation as any in the MLB. Is it that likely? Perhaps not but this is best case scenario.
I believe this team has a good amount of talent on it, they just have a low margin for error. The team could go out and win 95+ or lose 85+ games and neither would surprise me at all.
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Post by Don Caballero on Feb 21, 2024 17:42:10 GMT -5
This reads like an euphemism for "a bunch of middling pitchers". Hence the risk portion ("full of swingmen and tweeners") of my post! Oh I missed thar, sorry lol. And I didn’t mean to sound dickish, but it doesn’t feel like a best case scenario to have a DEEP staff because even if guys outperform, it still leaves you with an adequate staff. To me this is like saying the best case scenario for Casas is hitting 100 HRs. It’s technically possible, but let’s not get crazy lol.
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Post by James Dunne on Feb 21, 2024 18:14:35 GMT -5
I mean, think of it like the 2021 rotation - Eovaldi was very good, but basically they won 92 games because nobody was a disaster. Richards and Perez kept their offense in the game, the back end of the bullpen (Sawamura, Josh Taylor) pulled its weight, and they stayed in position to steal Kyle Schwarber from the Nationals.
Of course, the 2021 team was second in baseball in slugging. This team is going to need to prevent more runs to get to 92 wins than that team did, but the staff might actually be better on paper.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 21, 2024 18:33:06 GMT -5
I mean, think of it like the 2021 rotation - Eovaldi was very good, but basically they won 92 games because nobody was a disaster. Richards and Perez kept their offense in the game, the back end of the bullpen (Sawamura, Josh Taylor) pulled its weight, and they stayed in position to steal Kyle Schwarber from the Nationals. Of course, the 2021 team was second in baseball in slugging. This team is going to need to prevent more runs to get to 92 wins than that team did, but the staff might actually be better on paper. Sadly they don't have trade-deadline-master-Bloom around any more, and will likely have to pay the normal market rate to make additions at this year's deadline. *ducks*
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Post by strike23 on Feb 21, 2024 18:45:29 GMT -5
Best scenario: I see an absolute ceiling of 90 wins. That would require Giolito to be an innings eater and effective at run suppression; Bello taking a leap; Kutter and Pivetta best their best selves throughout the season. We'd need the defense to magically fix itself. (I say magically because on any given day, they're going to have several bad defenders on the field, even with Yoshi at DH.) On offense, Devers and Casas would have to crush, Story would have to contribute something and two of O'Neill, Abreu and Grissom would have to be reasonably productive. Worst scenario: The Red Sox are giving us the phony tease of a being a PS team at the deadline and CB2 fails to move assets for whatever he can get for them. The team ends up around .500, out of the PS, with a middling draft pick position for 2025, and no new assets. Or put another way, if the Red Sox have an uphill fight to make the PS at the trade deadline despite good years from KJ and Chris Martin and those two guys are still on the team at the end of the season, we're in the worst-case scenario. Its fine if you think the things you laid out won't happen but Giolito at a 3.8 ERA (pre-trade last year), Bello taking a leap to something like luzardo (3.6 ERA?), 2nd half Pivetta (3.26 ERA as a starter), and Kutter just matching last year at a 4.04 gives you a sub 4 rotation ERA even with Houck's 5.01 ERA 2023 plugged in as the 5th starter. That would slot them in somewhere between the 4th (SEA 4.89) and 7th (TEX 4.96) best rotations last year. Fangraphs projections appear to have the Red Sox with the 5th most runs scored without optimism. I don't see how the cap on that team as described is 90 wins. It might not be likely but if it came together like that they're essentially last years Rays (4th in runs scored 5th in runs against) with 99 wins.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 21, 2024 19:05:36 GMT -5
Best scenario: I see an absolute ceiling of 90 wins. That would require Giolito to be an innings eater and effective at run suppression; Bello taking a leap; Kutter and Pivetta best their best selves throughout the season. We'd need the defense to magically fix itself. (I say magically because on any given day, they're going to have several bad defenders on the field, even with Yoshi at DH.) On offense, Devers and Casas would have to crush, Story would have to contribute something and two of O'Neill, Abreu and Grissom would have to be reasonably productive. Worst scenario: The Red Sox are giving us the phony tease of a being a PS team at the deadline and CB2 fails to move assets for whatever he can get for them. The team ends up around .500, out of the PS, with a middling draft pick position for 2025, and no new assets. Or put another way, if the Red Sox have an uphill fight to make the PS at the trade deadline despite good years from KJ and Chris Martin and those two guys are still on the team at the end of the season, we're in the worst-case scenario. Its fine if you think the things you laid out won't happen but Giolito at a 3.8 ERA (pre-trade last year), Bello taking a leap to something like luzardo (3.6 ERA?), 2nd half Pivetta (3.26 ERA as a starter), and Kutter just matching last year at a 4.04 gives you a sub 4 rotation ERA even with Houck's 5.01 ERA 2023 plugged in as the 5th starter. That would slot them in somewhere between the 4th (SEA 4.89) and 7th (TEX 4.96) best rotations last year. Fangraphs projections appear to have the Red Sox with the 5th most runs scored without optimism. I don't see how the cap on that team as described is 90 wins. It might not be likely but if it came together like that they're essentially last years Rays (4th in runs scored 5th in runs against) with 99 wins. In general I think people could stand to use a little more of their imagination in projecting best-case scenarios. It's okay, you can still hate the owners and dislike this offseason while acknowledging there's some chance this team could be very good! Like, the Orioles outperformed their preseason fangraphs projection last season by 25 wins. It happens.
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Post by ephus on Feb 21, 2024 19:45:57 GMT -5
Best: Grissom becomes a steady glove at second, Ceddanne locks down CF and Story’s glove at SS brings memories of Orlando Cabrera in 2004. Good defense begets good defense and Raffy throws up an OAA of -2. Giolito gives the team 200 innings, Bello goes 175, and Kutter makes 28 starts and goes at least 7 innings in 12 of those starts. Duran/Story/Devers/ONeill/Casas/Grissom/Masa get a nickname that is corny but shows up on t-shirts. They win 90 games and miss the playoffs by 3 1/2 games.
Worst: The promise of improved pitching falls flat. Giolito gets the yips. Bello, Houk and Whitlock gets hurt, Fitts is called up before he’s ready and gets shellacked. By the way, Teel and Mayer get hurt, too, There’s more but I can’t subject you, dear reader. Let’s just say that by late July we’re calling for Chicken & Beer deliveries to the clubhouse.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 21, 2024 20:34:58 GMT -5
Best scenario: I see an absolute ceiling of 90 wins. That would require Giolito to be an innings eater and effective at run suppression; Bello taking a leap; Kutter and Pivetta best their best selves throughout the season. We'd need the defense to magically fix itself. (I say magically because on any given day, they're going to have several bad defenders on the field, even with Yoshi at DH.) On offense, Devers and Casas would have to crush, Story would have to contribute something and two of O'Neill, Abreu and Grissom would have to be reasonably productive. Worst scenario: The Red Sox are giving us the phony tease of a being a PS team at the deadline and CB2 fails to move assets for whatever he can get for them. The team ends up around .500, out of the PS, with a middling draft pick position for 2025, and no new assets. Or put another way, if the Red Sox have an uphill fight to make the PS at the trade deadline despite good years from KJ and Chris Martin and those two guys are still on the team at the end of the season, we're in the worst-case scenario. Its fine if you think the things you laid out won't happen but Giolito at a 3.8 ERA (pre-trade last year), Bello taking a leap to something like luzardo (3.6 ERA?), 2nd half Pivetta (3.26 ERA as a starter), and Kutter just matching last year at a 4.04 gives you a sub 4 rotation ERA even with Houck's 5.01 ERA 2023 plugged in as the 5th starter. That would slot them in somewhere between the 4th (SEA 4.89) and 7th (TEX 4.96) best rotations last year. Fangraphs projections appear to have the Red Sox with the 5th most runs scored without optimism. I don't see how the cap on that team as described is 90 wins. It might not be likely but if it came together like that they're essentially last years Rays (4th in runs scored 5th in runs against) with 99 wins.I don't think we disagree by much. I acknowledge it's not likely to come together like I laid out - which is why I put the ceiling at 90 wins. And you acknowledge (bolded) it's not likely to come togethger like you laid out. I certainly don't think it's going to come together in a way that gets them to 99 wins. The odds against that are astronomical - just as the odds against 100 L's are huge.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Feb 21, 2024 20:45:56 GMT -5
Its fine if you think the things you laid out won't happen but Giolito at a 3.8 ERA (pre-trade last year), Bello taking a leap to something like luzardo (3.6 ERA?), 2nd half Pivetta (3.26 ERA as a starter), and Kutter just matching last year at a 4.04 gives you a sub 4 rotation ERA even with Houck's 5.01 ERA 2023 plugged in as the 5th starter. That would slot them in somewhere between the 4th (SEA 4.89) and 7th (TEX 4.96) best rotations last year. Fangraphs projections appear to have the Red Sox with the 5th most runs scored without optimism. I don't see how the cap on that team as described is 90 wins. It might not be likely but if it came together like that they're essentially last years Rays (4th in runs scored 5th in runs against) with 99 wins. In general I think people could stand to use a little more of their imagination in projecting best-case scenarios. It's okay, you can still hate the owners and dislike this offseason while acknowledging there's some chance this team could be very good! Like, the Orioles outperformed their preseason fangraphs projection last season by 25 wins. It happens.
Lol, I did acknowledge there's some chance this team could be very good. I mean I raised the possibility that they could win 90 games. In today's MLB, that can easily get you into the PS. It would be a nice accomplishment coming off two last-place finishes and a disappointing off-season. Should I have said 95? 100? I don't hate the owners. I think JWH has lost some of his passion and I certainly have my frustrations with the group in general. But the FFFE - all four of them. I like CB2 and want to see how things come together under him starting in 2025 when a bunch of young, cost-controlled talent starts showing up in the home whites (or in the ugly blue and yellow, as the case may be on some days).
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Post by buffs4444 on Feb 22, 2024 0:25:09 GMT -5
Best: sign Monty, sign or trade for salary dump bat (Xander?) and send shockwaves into the clubhouse they ride all year to a wild card
Worst: continue to stand pat until things get brutal and a midsummer sell off lands them a top 3 or better pick.
Devers speaking out means the vibe in the clubhouse is already off and the “worst” is FAR more likely at the moment. Stats are nice, work with them everyday, but these are still human beings who watched the FO do nothing to upgrade the talent of a team that has been stripped for parts for several years. No idea what the FO is thinking at the moment, staring like lemmings at a cliff.
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Post by Don Caballero on Feb 22, 2024 0:40:51 GMT -5
I mean, think of it like the 2021 rotation - Eovaldi was very good, but basically they won 92 games because nobody was a disaster. Richards and Perez kept their offense in the game, the back end of the bullpen (Sawamura, Josh Taylor) pulled its weight, and they stayed in position to steal Kyle Schwarber from the Nationals. Of course, the 2021 team was second in baseball in slugging. This team is going to need to prevent more runs to get to 92 wins than that team did, but the staff might actually be better on paper. The problem I have with the staff is right in your best case scenario, you called them versatile. They have 2 guys who are legit starters in Giolito and Bello and I actually do love both of them as players. But then you have 4 guys who probably work better as relievers and then two more of those multiple inning relivers kinds in Fitts and Mata, if all breaks well. It feels like they have too many moving parts. This feels a bit too new age for me in the current day of openers and I'm not against it, but I wouldn't call the group deep at all. I do think they can be adequate like they were in 2021, but I struggle to think how can they be more than that unless everyone goes supernova.
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Post by rhswanzey on Feb 22, 2024 0:41:00 GMT -5
*On paper* - which AL teams do we think are definitively worse than Boston?
Oakland, obviously. Chicago.
You can make a case for Los Angeles, Detroit and Kansas City, but aren’t those probably closer to toss ups than objectively worse teams? e.g. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if KC finishes with more wins than Boston this year. They have a player better than anyone on our roster and they (lol) outspent us several times over this offseason.
That’s it, right? Five teams, give or take?
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Feb 22, 2024 0:45:20 GMT -5
*On paper* - which teams do we think are definitively worse than Boston? Oakland, obviously. Chicago. You can make a case for Los Angeles, Detroit and Kansas City, but aren’t those probably closer to toss ups than objectively worse teams? e.g. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if KC finishes with more wins than Boston this year. They have a player better than anyone on our roster and they (lol) outspent us several times over this offseason. That’s it, right? Five teams, give or take? I'll bet you $1,000 that the Red Sox finish with a better record than the Rockies
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Post by rhswanzey on Feb 22, 2024 0:49:57 GMT -5
Was supposed to say AL teams. Edited
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