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What are the best/worst case scenarios for 2024?
Smittyw
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Post by Smittyw on Feb 24, 2024 20:46:25 GMT -5
Problem is outside of Eovaldi, Means, Montas and Severino they can't afford/won't pay those top end options. If Gerritt Cole has an excellent year there is zero chance the Sox outbid the Yankees. They aren't outbidding the Dodgers on Buehler or the field on Bieber. I don't see why they wouldn't be in on a top SP next year. They don't need bullpen help and will likely have a full or nearly full group of position players. They'll also have a *lot* of cash to spend. What are they going to do, sit at a $150 million luxury tax payroll right as the window is really opening? They are on track to spend ~$20 million less than last year with a month plus until opening day and people seem to be extrapolating that to "they will never again sign a top free agent and will forevermore run a middling payroll". I'd agree, but literally everyone thought they were going to go out and add pitching this year, so who knows. In theory, there will be plenty of great starters to be had, but the excuses for not getting it done kind of write themselves at this point.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 25, 2024 8:04:07 GMT -5
I don't see why they wouldn't be in on a top SP next year. They don't need bullpen help and will likely have a full or nearly full group of position players. They'll also have a *lot* of cash to spend. What are they going to do, sit at a $150 million luxury tax payroll right as the window is really opening? They are on track to spend ~$20 million less than last year with a month plus until opening day and people seem to be extrapolating that to "they will never again sign a top free agent and will forevermore run a middling payroll". I'd agree, but literally everyone thought they were going to go out and add pitching this year, so who knows. In theory, there will be plenty of great starters to be had, but the excuses for not getting it done kind of write themselves at this point. They did add pitching this year, just not as much as people expected so far. It just feels like less because of the lack of a top tier starter. When you start looking at the names it's like, oh, okay (Giolito, Hendriks, Campbell, Weissert, Slaten, Criswell, Fitts, Sandlin, Fulmer, Luetge/Rodriguez to compete for a LHP pen spot). Feels like the bullpen will already be solid come 2025 and they will have decent coverage in mid-to-back-end starters, so the only spot it makes sense to add will be the top of the rotation. I keep coming back to "which 2024 free agent made sense in Boston and was worth beating the winning offer for?" And I end up with "Maaaaaybe Fedde and Imanaga?" But at that point you may just as well give the kids a shot so you can see what you have. Montgomery would help but looked like a huge waste of money at his desired price point, so I'm glad they're playing the "reasonable contract or not at all" game. Next year they will have a stronger foundation to build on, a lot more money to spend (assuming FSG is not going to pocket the cash, which would make no sense even business-wise), more information about the best role for Whitlock/Winck/Houck, and a better SP free agent class to spend on.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 25, 2024 8:16:23 GMT -5
I'd agree, but literally everyone thought they were going to go out and add pitching this year, so who knows. In theory, there will be plenty of great starters to be had, but the excuses for not getting it done kind of write themselves at this point. They did add pitching this year, just not as much as people expected so far. It just feels like less because of the lack of a top tier starter. When you start looking at the names it's like, oh, okay (Giolito, Hendriks, Campbell, Weissert, Slaten, Criswell, Fitts, Sandlin, Fulmer, Luetge/Rodriguez to compete for a LHP pen spot). Feels like the bullpen will already be solid come 2025 and they will have decent coverage in mid-to-back-end starters, so the only spot it makes sense to add will be the top of the rotation. I keep coming back to "which 2024 free agent made sense in Boston and was worth beating the winning offer for?" And I end up with "Maaaaaybe Fedde and Imanaga?" But at that point you may just as well give the kids a shot so you can see what you have. Montgomery would help but looked like a huge waste of money at his desired price point, so I'm glad they're playing the "reasonable contract or not at all" game. Next year they will have a stronger foundation to build on, a lot more money to spend (assuming FSG is not going to pocket the cash, which would make no sense even business-wise), more information about the best role for Whitlock/Winck/Houck, and a better SP free agent class to spend on. They added pitching but surprisingly subtracted as well as I dont think it was anticipated that Chris Sale was getting traded. As far as giving Whitlock or Houck a chance to start, this isnt a new concept. Theyve been doing this without either one establishing themselves as a starter. All they're doing is trying again while under different coaching hoping that'll be the difference.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 25, 2024 8:50:12 GMT -5
They did add pitching this year, just not as much as people expected so far. It just feels like less because of the lack of a top tier starter. When you start looking at the names it's like, oh, okay (Giolito, Hendriks, Campbell, Weissert, Slaten, Criswell, Fitts, Sandlin, Fulmer, Luetge/Rodriguez to compete for a LHP pen spot). Feels like the bullpen will already be solid come 2025 and they will have decent coverage in mid-to-back-end starters, so the only spot it makes sense to add will be the top of the rotation. I keep coming back to "which 2024 free agent made sense in Boston and was worth beating the winning offer for?" And I end up with "Maaaaaybe Fedde and Imanaga?" But at that point you may just as well give the kids a shot so you can see what you have. Montgomery would help but looked like a huge waste of money at his desired price point, so I'm glad they're playing the "reasonable contract or not at all" game. Next year they will have a stronger foundation to build on, a lot more money to spend (assuming FSG is not going to pocket the cash, which would make no sense even business-wise), more information about the best role for Whitlock/Winck/Houck, and a better SP free agent class to spend on. They added pitching but surprisingly subtracted as well as I dont think it was anticipated that Chris Sale was getting traded. As far as giving Whitlock or Houck a chance to start, this isnt a new concept. Theyve been doing this without either one establishing themselves as a starter. All they're doing is trying again while under different coaching hoping that'll be the difference. True, that was a surprise, but then again, how many years now have people been saying you can't plan around Sale in the rotation and whatever he ends up giving you is gravy? Giolito at least is a clear workhorse. I agree about Houck - I already think it's best to move him to the pen - but Whitlock and Winckowski have not gotten a full look. Winck got 14 starts back in '22 and Whitlock has been battling injuries through most of the starts he's gotten. I'm bullish on Whitlock in particular sticking in the rotation if he can stay healthy. Possibly a big if, but sample sizes are still small for that sort of thing. He has such an easy delivery too - feels tailor made for a starter.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 25, 2024 10:22:48 GMT -5
They added pitching but surprisingly subtracted as well as I dont think it was anticipated that Chris Sale was getting traded. As far as giving Whitlock or Houck a chance to start, this isnt a new concept. Theyve been doing this without either one establishing themselves as a starter. All they're doing is trying again while under different coaching hoping that'll be the difference. True, that was a surprise, but then again, how many years now have people been saying you can't plan around Sale in the rotation and whatever he ends up giving you is gravy? Giolito at least is a clear workhorse. I agree about Houck - I already think it's best to move him to the pen - but Whitlock and Winckowski have not gotten a full look. Winck got 14 starts back in '22 and Whitlock has been battling injuries through most of the starts he's gotten. I'm bullish on Whitlock in particular sticking in the rotation if he can stay healthy. Possibly a big if, but sample sizes are still small for that sort of thing. He has such an easy delivery too - feels tailor made for a starter. True, definitely couldnt comfortably pencil in Sale for 150 plus innings, but he was a possibility to pitch well for however many innings. His removal took away a possibility. It was an unexpected removal, but given the return, not something I have any quarrel with, given how highly I think of Grissom. Add in Paxton leaving, two possibilities were jettisoned in favor of a lesser quality but greater quantity pitcher although if he continued his Corey Kluber impersonation, the quantity would diminish as well, but basically 1 possibilty added while 2 subtracted, which makes me think that given what's going on Montgomery does loom as a realistic possibility, so I'm curious as to what happens there. If I had to handicap it I'd think Chapman to SF, Snell to NYY (I'm hoping LAA or SF as I dont want to see the Yankees improve themselves on the field) and Montgomery to the Red Sox, although we'll see as Philly remains a possibility, too. I agree with your other point, that if Montgomery goes elsewhere, Whitlock is best suited to become a starter. He controls the strike zone better, doesnt get crushed by lefties normally, can be more efficient with his pitches, etc. I'm not even sure Whitlock can pitch consecutive days in the pen. When I see Houck I see him kind of the way Bob Stanley or Mike Timlin was used at times, as a guy who can close, set up, or provide length on the pen. I'm not sure what Winchowski is, only that he was really good in the pen when not overused. This will be an interesting week ahead. I expect Chapman to SF quickly but at some point this week I'd think Snell and Montgomery have to get new homes. I'm hoping Montgomery to the Sox for 4 or 5 years with an opt out after 2 or even this year if need be. He's more important this year and next rather than thereafter.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 25, 2024 10:45:35 GMT -5
I'd agree, but literally everyone thought they were going to go out and add pitching this year, so who knows. In theory, there will be plenty of great starters to be had, but the excuses for not getting it done kind of write themselves at this point. They did add pitching this year, just not as much as people expected so far. It just feels like less because of the lack of a top tier starter. When you start looking at the names it's like, oh, okay (Giolito, Hendriks, Campbell, Weissert, Slaten, Criswell, Fitts, Sandlin, Fulmer, Luetge/Rodriguez to compete for a LHP pen spot). Feels like the bullpen will already be solid come 2025 and they will have decent coverage in mid-to-back-end starters, so the only spot it makes sense to add will be the top of the rotation. I keep coming back to "which 2024 free agent made sense in Boston and was worth beating the winning offer for?" And I end up with "Maaaaaybe Fedde and Imanaga?" But at that point you may just as well give the kids a shot so you can see what you have. Montgomery would help but looked like a huge waste of money at his desired price point, so I'm glad they're playing the "reasonable contract or not at all" game. Next year they will have a stronger foundation to build on, a lot more money to spend (assuming FSG is not going to pocket the cash, which would make no sense even business-wise), more information about the best role for Whitlock/Winck/Houck, and a better SP free agent class to spend on. The free agents that made sense and were worth beating the winning offer for, in my view:
Imanaga Stroman Maeda Manaea Paxton Junis Clevinger
If they sign Montgomery it'll be a moot point. But if they go into the season with what they have now they're too vulnerable to injury and underperformance. And another starter pushes Houck or Whitlock to the bullpen, which converts that from looking fine to looking like a potentially dominant strength for the team.
As things stand, the offense is okay. The rotation is okay. The bullpen is okay. There aren't glaring needs. But they need to be better than the competition somewhere, and if it's not going to be in high-end talent it could at least be in enviable depth. That strikes me as their most likely path to the post-season this year.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 25, 2024 12:32:43 GMT -5
They did add pitching this year, just not as much as people expected so far. It just feels like less because of the lack of a top tier starter. When you start looking at the names it's like, oh, okay (Giolito, Hendriks, Campbell, Weissert, Slaten, Criswell, Fitts, Sandlin, Fulmer, Luetge/Rodriguez to compete for a LHP pen spot). Feels like the bullpen will already be solid come 2025 and they will have decent coverage in mid-to-back-end starters, so the only spot it makes sense to add will be the top of the rotation. I keep coming back to "which 2024 free agent made sense in Boston and was worth beating the winning offer for?" And I end up with "Maaaaaybe Fedde and Imanaga?" But at that point you may just as well give the kids a shot so you can see what you have. Montgomery would help but looked like a huge waste of money at his desired price point, so I'm glad they're playing the "reasonable contract or not at all" game. Next year they will have a stronger foundation to build on, a lot more money to spend (assuming FSG is not going to pocket the cash, which would make no sense even business-wise), more information about the best role for Whitlock/Winck/Houck, and a better SP free agent class to spend on. The free agents that made sense and were worth beating the winning offer for, in my view:
Imanaga Stroman Maeda Manaea Paxton Junis Clevinger
If they sign Montgomery it'll be a moot point. But if they go into the season with what they have now they're too vulnerable to injury and underperformance. And another starter pushes Houck or Whitlock to the bullpen, which converts that from looking fine to looking like a potentially dominant strength for the team.
As things stand, the offense is okay. The rotation is okay. The bullpen is okay. There aren't glaring needs. But they need to be better than the competition somewhere, and if it's not going to be in high-end talent it could at least be in enviable depth. That strikes me as their most likely path to the post-season this year.
Ohhh I'm not sure about that list.
Imanaga - Coming into the offseason I would have been thrilled with Imanaga on a 4/53, but the lack of interest league-wide tells me that he's not as good as I thought he was, his medicals are ugly, or both. He's one of two guys on this list that I think you can make a strong argument for making the high bid on, though. Stroman - He was never in a million years coming to Boston, but ZiPS also projects 1.7 fWAR in 138 IP in year 1 of the deal. Compare with Whitlock (1.8 fWAR split between the rotation and pen over 89 IP), Houck (1.2 fWAR mostly in the rotation over 106 IP), Winckowski (1.2 fWAR split between the rotation and pen over 99 IP). Why spend 2/37 on a guy who probably doesn't make you better unless a veritable injury plague strikes? Maeda - I'm a fan of his, but the same logic applies. Projection is 1.3 fWAR over 104 IP. Is that worth 2/24 for a 36 y/o? Doubtful. Manaea - Same logic applies. 113 IP, 1.4 fWAR. Paxton - Same logic applies. 110 IP, 1.3 fWAR. I think you can argue that Paxton was worth outbidding LAD on, as he was nails in the first half and it's not surprising that he'd be a bit out of gas down the stretch in his first year back from major injuries. Reports were that he wanted to be on the west coast, though, and he's not exactly the most money-motivated player of all time, so it probably would have taken heck of an offer to keep him. Junis - 89 IP split between the pen and rotation, 1.1 fWAR. Clevinger - 119 IP, 1.6 fWAR.
If one of these guys was willing to sign to be a depth starter / maybe open the year in the pen, I'd be a fan of it. Spending extra money to promise them a rotation spot is a tough sell, though; it removes the advantages of getting to evaluate Whitlock and Winck in particular in the SP role (Edit: this isn't for certain, but it's likely; early season injuries could still give them a lot of time to audition, but after a certain point they're not going to stay stretched out) and the multi-year nature of many of these deals would somewhat limit flexibility next year. Obviously these are just some public projections and who knows what the team's models are saying, but in principle, if you have the option to give innings to a young, controllable player instead of an old free agent without sacrificing performance, and potentially while increasing your upside in this year and in future years (e.g. if Whitlock proves he's a solid starter), why would you ever opt for the FA?
I think we're agreed that they should be spending at least up near the tax line to help the team win, but that doesn't mean picking up a guy on this list. It could mean extending guys like Casas and Bello. It could also mean pouncing on Montgomery, who would at least be an upgrade and no doubt starter, if he can be had for fewer years. It could mean more Hendriks-style deals for rehabbing players (although I'm not sure there are any more targets for this now that Woodruff is locked up). It could mean more Ottavino-style deals to buy prospects, even if you're just going to DFA the guy in question.
I can't see anything other than a strength when I look at the pen. There are no weak links, the depth is good, and Jansen/Martin was a solid combo last year. The only quibble could be about a second LHP, but in a vacuum I'd be alright with any of Murphy/Jacques/Rodriguez/Luetge in a major league pen, so I'm not worried about the winner of a competition between them. The offense looks above average by projections; not elite, but still probably a fringe top 10 group. And I agree that SP looks just okay, but there is a ton of upside there too - Bello, Giolito, Pivetta, and Crawford could all realistically be in the 2/3 bucket, and I'm a believer in Whitlock too.
I think you just need to lean into the variance with a team like this. No sense in grabbing safe veterans who you're nearly certain won't pop off this year; might as well roll the dice on young guys with a ceiling. Worst case, you at least get some good information about who fits into the plans going forward, and you likely get a decent haul from deadline sales. Best case, you get a handful of upper percentile outcomes and the team is suddenly dangerous. If we're at the point where guys like Walter are having to start games because we didn't sign a Clevinger type and an injury plague hits, I think the season is already over.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 25, 2024 12:56:40 GMT -5
The free agents that made sense and were worth beating the winning offer for, in my view:
Imanaga Stroman Maeda Manaea Paxton Junis Clevinger
If they sign Montgomery it'll be a moot point. But if they go into the season with what they have now they're too vulnerable to injury and underperformance. And another starter pushes Houck or Whitlock to the bullpen, which converts that from looking fine to looking like a potentially dominant strength for the team.
As things stand, the offense is okay. The rotation is okay. The bullpen is okay. There aren't glaring needs. But they need to be better than the competition somewhere, and if it's not going to be in high-end talent it could at least be in enviable depth. That strikes me as their most likely path to the post-season this year.
Ohhh I'm not sure about that list.
Imanaga - Coming into the offseason I would have been thrilled with Imanaga on a 4/53, but the lack of interest league-wide tells me that he's not as good as I thought he was, his medicals are ugly, or both. He's one of two guys on this list that I think you can make a strong argument for making the high bid on, though. Stroman - He was never in a million years coming to Boston, but ZiPS also projects 1.7 fWAR in 138 IP in year 1 of the deal. Compare with Whitlock (1.8 fWAR split between the rotation and pen over 89 IP), Houck (1.2 fWAR mostly in the rotation over 106 IP), Winckowski (1.2 fWAR split between the rotation and pen over 99 IP). Why spend 2/37 on a guy who probably doesn't make you better unless a veritable injury plague strikes? Maeda - I'm a fan of his, but the same logic applies. Projection is 1.3 fWAR over 104 IP. Is that worth 2/24 for a 36 y/o? Doubtful. Manaea - Same logic applies. 113 IP, 1.4 fWAR. Paxton - Same logic applies. 110 IP, 1.3 fWAR. I think you can argue that Paxton was worth outbidding LAD on, as he was nails in the first half and it's not surprising that he'd be a bit out of gas down the stretch in his first year back from major injuries. Reports were that he wanted to be on the west coast, though, and he's not exactly the most money-motivated player of all time, so it probably would have taken heck of an offer to keep him. Junis - 89 IP split between the pen and rotation, 1.1 fWAR. Clevinger - 119 IP, 1.6 fWAR.
If one of these guys was willing to sign to be a depth starter / maybe open the year in the pen, I'd be a fan of it. Spending extra money to promise them a rotation spot is a tough sell, though; it removes the advantages of getting to evaluate Whitlock and Winck in particular in the SP role (Edit: this isn't for certain, but it's likely; early season injuries could still give them a lot of time to audition, but after a certain point they're not going to stay stretched out) and the multi-year nature of many of these deals would somewhat limit flexibility next year. Obviously these are just some public projections and who knows what the team's models are saying, but in principle, if you have the option to give innings to a young, controllable player instead of an old free agent without sacrificing performance, and potentially while increasing your upside in this year and in future years (e.g. if Whitlock proves he's a solid starter), why would you ever opt for the FA?
I think we're agreed that they should be spending at least up near the tax line to help the team win, but that doesn't mean picking up a guy on this list. It could mean extending guys like Casas and Bello. It could also mean pouncing on Montgomery, who would at least be an upgrade and no doubt starter, if he can be had for fewer years. It could mean more Hendriks-style deals for rehabbing players (although I'm not sure there are any more targets for this now that Woodruff is locked up). It could mean more Ottavino-style deals to buy prospects, even if you're just going to DFA the guy in question.
I can't see anything other than a strength when I look at the pen. There are no weak links, the depth is good, and Jansen/Martin was a solid combo last year. The only quibble could be about a second LHP, but in a vacuum I'd be alright with any of Murphy/Jacques/Rodriguez/Luetge in a major league pen, so I'm not worried about the winner of a competition between them. The offense looks above average by projections; not elite, but still probably a fringe top 10 group. And I agree that SP looks just okay, but there is a ton of upside there too - Bello, Giolito, Pivetta, and Crawford could all realistically be in the 2/3 bucket, and I'm a believer in Whitlock too.
I think you just need to lean into the variance with a team like this. No sense in grabbing safe veterans who you're nearly certain won't pop off this year; might as well roll the dice on young guys with a ceiling. Worst case, you at least get some good information about who fits into the plans going forward, and you likely get a decent haul from deadline sales. Best case, you get a handful of upper percentile outcomes and the team is suddenly dangerous. If we're at the point where guys like Walter are having to start games because we didn't sign a Clevinger type and an injury plague hits, I think the season is already over.
But if they signed Clevinger they wouldn't need starts from Walter, so the season wouldn't already be a lost cause!
The basic difference of opinion here, I think, is that I don't think they need to sign a FA SP who's better than what they already have in the rotation to improve the team. They don't need "a plague of injuries" for that depth to become relevant; they just need one guy to go down, and it's more often than not the case that at least one guy is down at any given point in most seasons. Plus that addition to the rotation makes the bullpen better for reasons already stated.
Anyway, I won't die on this hill until we know they're not signing Montgomery (or Snell), which is starting to seem like they might do after all.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 25, 2024 13:03:46 GMT -5
Spending extra money? Why would we care at all about that for a short term deal when they are way below historical spending levels.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 25, 2024 13:15:48 GMT -5
Ohhh I'm not sure about that list.
Imanaga - Coming into the offseason I would have been thrilled with Imanaga on a 4/53, but the lack of interest league-wide tells me that he's not as good as I thought he was, his medicals are ugly, or both. He's one of two guys on this list that I think you can make a strong argument for making the high bid on, though. Stroman - He was never in a million years coming to Boston, but ZiPS also projects 1.7 fWAR in 138 IP in year 1 of the deal. Compare with Whitlock (1.8 fWAR split between the rotation and pen over 89 IP), Houck (1.2 fWAR mostly in the rotation over 106 IP), Winckowski (1.2 fWAR split between the rotation and pen over 99 IP). Why spend 2/37 on a guy who probably doesn't make you better unless a veritable injury plague strikes? Maeda - I'm a fan of his, but the same logic applies. Projection is 1.3 fWAR over 104 IP. Is that worth 2/24 for a 36 y/o? Doubtful. Manaea - Same logic applies. 113 IP, 1.4 fWAR. Paxton - Same logic applies. 110 IP, 1.3 fWAR. I think you can argue that Paxton was worth outbidding LAD on, as he was nails in the first half and it's not surprising that he'd be a bit out of gas down the stretch in his first year back from major injuries. Reports were that he wanted to be on the west coast, though, and he's not exactly the most money-motivated player of all time, so it probably would have taken heck of an offer to keep him. Junis - 89 IP split between the pen and rotation, 1.1 fWAR. Clevinger - 119 IP, 1.6 fWAR.
If one of these guys was willing to sign to be a depth starter / maybe open the year in the pen, I'd be a fan of it. Spending extra money to promise them a rotation spot is a tough sell, though; it removes the advantages of getting to evaluate Whitlock and Winck in particular in the SP role (Edit: this isn't for certain, but it's likely; early season injuries could still give them a lot of time to audition, but after a certain point they're not going to stay stretched out) and the multi-year nature of many of these deals would somewhat limit flexibility next year. Obviously these are just some public projections and who knows what the team's models are saying, but in principle, if you have the option to give innings to a young, controllable player instead of an old free agent without sacrificing performance, and potentially while increasing your upside in this year and in future years (e.g. if Whitlock proves he's a solid starter), why would you ever opt for the FA?
I think we're agreed that they should be spending at least up near the tax line to help the team win, but that doesn't mean picking up a guy on this list. It could mean extending guys like Casas and Bello. It could also mean pouncing on Montgomery, who would at least be an upgrade and no doubt starter, if he can be had for fewer years. It could mean more Hendriks-style deals for rehabbing players (although I'm not sure there are any more targets for this now that Woodruff is locked up). It could mean more Ottavino-style deals to buy prospects, even if you're just going to DFA the guy in question.
I can't see anything other than a strength when I look at the pen. There are no weak links, the depth is good, and Jansen/Martin was a solid combo last year. The only quibble could be about a second LHP, but in a vacuum I'd be alright with any of Murphy/Jacques/Rodriguez/Luetge in a major league pen, so I'm not worried about the winner of a competition between them. The offense looks above average by projections; not elite, but still probably a fringe top 10 group. And I agree that SP looks just okay, but there is a ton of upside there too - Bello, Giolito, Pivetta, and Crawford could all realistically be in the 2/3 bucket, and I'm a believer in Whitlock too.
I think you just need to lean into the variance with a team like this. No sense in grabbing safe veterans who you're nearly certain won't pop off this year; might as well roll the dice on young guys with a ceiling. Worst case, you at least get some good information about who fits into the plans going forward, and you likely get a decent haul from deadline sales. Best case, you get a handful of upper percentile outcomes and the team is suddenly dangerous. If we're at the point where guys like Walter are having to start games because we didn't sign a Clevinger type and an injury plague hits, I think the season is already over.
But if they signed Clevinger they wouldn't need starts from Walter, so the season wouldn't already be a lost cause!
The basic difference of opinion here, I think, is that I don't think they need to sign a FA SP who's better than what they already have in the rotation to improve the team. They don't need "a plague of injuries" for that depth to become relevant; they just need one guy to go down, and it's more often than not the case that at least one guy is down at any given point in most seasons. Plus that addition to the rotation makes the bullpen better for reasons already stated.
Anyway, I won't die on this hill until we know they're not signing Montgomery (or Snell), which is starting to seem like they might do after all.
Disagree. They have pretty reasonable depth up to a certain point; by the time Walter is pitching, you basically have four opening day starters injured at once. Assuming a rotation of Giolito, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, and Whitlock, the order of succession would probably be: Winckowski, Houck, Criswell, then Walter, and Fitts could jump him before too long depending on how his 2024 goes. If your rotation is, say, Crawford, Winckowski, Houck, Criswell, and Clevinger for more than a short period of time, I still think you are in rough shape. And FWIW, ZiPS also has Walter at 1.2 fWAR in 103 IP between the rotation and pen. It sounds like a heck of a bullish projection to me, but regardless, am I really worried if the team's #9 or #10 starter is marginally worse entering the season?
This would require a plague of injuries to matter, because you would need the delta between Clevinger and the next guy on the depth chart to be significant, and for that next guy up to rack up a lot of innings, in order for it to make more than a marginal difference. And, per projections, the Sox would need their entire rotation to get injured for an extended period before this would actually be the case. I would rather put that cash into any of the other avenues I listed than buy insurance on insurance. And again, there's potential downside to having Clevinger on the roster to begin with that I mentioned in my last reply. One more to add onto the pile: it will require another DFA.
Agreed though - Montgomery would make this pretty moot.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 25, 2024 15:20:30 GMT -5
I truly think this is a bad team. They either got worse or stayed the same. Yes, things broke wrong and they won 78 games. I think the Yankees are going to be better, the Orioles and Rays aren't going anywhere. Blue Jays tend to disappoint, but should be good.
They removed Chris Sale and James Paxton from the rotation and added Lucas Giolito who hasn't been good in 2 years. His fastball RPM have been going down, it has flattened a bit, and the overall velocity has dipped a tick. To me he's a 4.80 ERA starter until he shows otherwise. Understand he was good in an early sample last year and dealt with being traded twice and a divorce. The hope is that's the cause for his poor numbers. I think that could affect anyone, but I'm not sure I buy that as the reason he wasn't even serviceable.
1st - Triston Casas is my dark horse to be the most valuable player on the team this year. He shows power and continued discipline and improved defense and he'll go far. He still needs to improve his defense because last year was not good. The bat and the glove fell apart at the same time so hopefully it was more coincidence then letting one impact the other.
2B - Vaughn Grissom was never on my radar. From what I've read from him the best case scenario is a poor man's Dustin Pedroia with the bat. Maybe has a couple seasons in his career hitting 15/20 stolen bases, good base on ball skills, 20 HR potential, decent average. It's not great that he was a horrendous SS and has bad defensive numbers at 2B. The hope here being that he's playing the position full-time will let him improve defensively.
SS - Trevor Story has been an injured mess and his inability to hit breaking pitches is becoming increasingly concerning. Great defensive player as long as he's on the field.
3B - Rafael Devers, the man who is sabotaging this team with his commentary.... I'm kidding. Great bat, poor defense, can get a bit aloof out there. Is he going to be a 3 WAR player or is he going to finally hit his full potential about be a 5-6 guy? I want to stress that 3 WAR is still worth his contract, he can just be better.
RF - Wilyer Abreu/Tyler O'Neil. I don't have enough information on my own end on this combo. I don't mind Tyler O'Neil for his splits. Admittedly it doesn't seem like a very exciting platoon. But this is just "feelings" and nothing more.
CF - Excited to see Ceddanne Rafaela get an opportunity. I don't think he's going to hit right away, if he ever hits, so he's going to be a great defensive specialist out there who sits a few times a week in favor of a stronger lineup.
LF - Duran still strikes out a bunch, wasn't very good after the all-star break and still a horrendous fielder who is being masked by the wall at Fenway. If his bat is more like 2022 or after the all star break in 2023 he's a negative player on the field.
DH - Yoshida is a DH without any power and didn't get on base a lot in his rookie season. His bat is fine for LF, but at DH I'd expect better.
C - Wong and McGuire are not good hitting the baseball. Wong is strong behind the dish but I'd prefer him as a backup rather than a starter. Catchers don't hit anyways so the bar is super low for him to be a positive player (had a 2.2 WAR last year). Reese McGuire I don't think has any value.
The rotation is Bello Pivetta Giolito Crawford Houck Whitlock
Pivetta had a good year last year, but he also lost his job and had to earn it back. It was his best season of his career. He's a 4 starter because I suspect he'll continue his career norms of being inconsistent from start to start.
Houck - 5 inning guy at best.
Whitlock - I'm kind of over this experiment and wish they'd put him back in the pen permanently. He's not the same as a starter.
Crawford is a fun story. He had a great year last year. If he replicates he'll be a strong number 3. I can see reality crashing back on him as well, but I'm rooting for Crawford.
Bello - love the kid, love the potential. I think he can be an "ace" but probably not in 2024. He probably should be their 2nd stater rather than their 1st.
Wink is a good junk baller out of the pen. If he's a starter they're going to have a bad time.
Who is their leadoff hitter? I'm assuming Devers 2, Casas 3 and then who is 4?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 27, 2024 14:44:20 GMT -5
This glass can also be half full or even fuller.
Best case includes a healthier 2024 and:
1. The infield defense is literally transformed around a full season of Story’s leadership and unique skills:
Wong, as a “sophomore”, continues to improve following his off-season work on framing and pitch calling.
Casas, as a sophomore, gets back to being a good defender and maintains his development as a dynamic hitter.
Grissom, as a young “sophomore”, hits as he should/has and as a young, athletic, toolsy infielder settles in as at least an average 2B. He will be seriously impacted by Story’s skills.
Devers, prime Devers, will be Prime Devers. Like Grissom, his defense this season will be improved simply by Story’s range.
Story. Health is key. He seems healthy and is likely to not only rank among baseball’s top defensive SS, but is also a force with the bat and a constant threat on the bases.
This could be a solid defensive unit, maybe not great, but most certainly better than the 2023 version; and the offense from Casas, Grissom, Devers, Story could not only be improved but maybe a top 5. It’s a better infield, even without rosy glasses.
2. Outfield defense improves, possibly also transformed:
LF. With Masa as the primary DH, any of Duran, Abreu, et al improves range, arm. Duran’s defense before the wall would be greatly enhanced and his range and speed an improvement over 2023.
CF. With Duran likely in LF, Rafaella’s awesomeness will eventually dominate CF. Also an improvement over 2023
RF. A platoon of O’Neill/Abreu is often discussed. We lost Dugie but gained O’Neill and his 2 GG, improved speed, range and at least comparable arm. Abreu is still an unknown but we do know he can be very good. A real wildcard this season.
An OF of Duran, Rafaella, O’Neill, Abreu should surpass 2023’s mashup in every aspect of the game.
DH. We don’t lose Masa’s bat. His jaw is surgically repaired, he is acclimated, prepared. Turner was a smart, clutch, consistent, keep the line moving type of hitter with some real power. Masa is a smart, clutch, consistent, keep the line moving hitter with some power. I would take Masa (and Duran, Rafaella) over Soler or Teoscar. My 2 cents.
The Offense: Turner and Duvall are tough to replace. But a lineup of L-Duran, R-Grissom, L-Devers, L-Casas, R-O’Neill, L-Masa, R-Story, L-Abreu, R/L-McWong should minimize those losses while adding the variables gained with greater speed, more doubles and SB, youth and a shoulder chip.
Rotation: The starting 5 and depth 5 have much to prove but have already proven much. Bello, Giolito, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Winck and some good pickups like Fitt are not stars. But none are scrubs either. It’s a good staff with enough depth to handle injuries. Adding Montgomery raises the bar a bit while enhances that depth. It’s overall an improvement over 2023 which featured an injured Sale, Kluber, Paxton, Houck, Whitlock, rookie Bello and “others”.
Pen: Above average. With the pickups this off-season maybe we’ll above average.
Summary: Improved defense, improved offense, improved speed, more youth, some more imminent talent from Pawtucket, above average Pen, Ace-less but potentially average Rotation, potential pitching revolution in process. This team is better than 2023 and, despite spacious error bars, should have better results. IMO in it for a wild card to the end with 86-89W.
Worst case: injuries, disasters, end times.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 28, 2024 18:54:22 GMT -5
Best: WS Champs. Worst (assuming ordinary injury rates): I spend all winter pointing out that the last-place Sox would have made the postseason in two or more other divisions. Nobody cares.
I've been a Sox fan since 1962 and an analytically informed one since 1971, when I read Percentage Baseball and pledged my soul to OBP and SA. And the current Sox rotation has a very strong chance at being the best I've ever seen.
(Yeah, that sounds crazy. So did my prediction for the '21 team, 92 wins and the 1st WC. I can't give that kind of prediction this year because I have not followed the rest of the division at all.)
Here's a rundown, a short, pointed version of the analysis I've been doing all winter.
My stat (as always) is xwOBA allowed, the best single stat in all of baseball: SO, BB, HB, exit velocity, and launch angle. Rankings are among the top 150 pitchers in PA.
12th. Rank of Bryan Bello of all starting pitchers from June 1 on ... if you ignore the three terrible outings he had pitching at day, and on 4 days rest to boot.
And you should. Not all outcomes on the playing field are predictive. Identifying and eliminating the ones that aren't gives you hugely better projections. (The success of that methodology was a decent chunk of why John Henry hired me personally.) In this case, we can expect Bello to find an effective between-starts regimen for that combination, just as he he found them last year for day games and for four days rest (to a statistically significant degree). Oh, and this rankings does include 4 meh to bad outings in the two problem situations, while he was in the process of figuring them out.)
8th. Rank of Nick Pivetta of all pitchers, beginning at the end of June when he introduced his sweeper and rebooted his cutter. He was actually worse as a reliever, so I included that.
2nd. Rank of Kutter Crawford of all starting pitchers on the season, when there wasn't a runner in scoring position with first base open. He was 10th worst when there was, and 10th best overall. I assume they will have him fix whatever he was doing wrong in that situation.
This is admittedly rather misleading given that they rarely let him go past five innings. But there's a lot of headroom between 2nd best in MLB and #2 starter, which seems like a reasonable expectation.
2nd. Rank of Tanner Houck among all starters, over innings 1 through 3, at the time he was injured. He was 25th worst from innings 4 on.
Even though there were numerous stories about his being unable to do any off-season work last winter, and how he had worked his ass off this winter to go deeper in games .... the entire planet seems to think he has a reliever's repertoire. Christopher Gasper in today's Globe: Houck needs a third pitch pitch to stick as a starter. It would have taken him maybe two minutes to get this pitch breakdown (same data set that has him at #2):
(MLB average, all pitches, .322)
.159 / .110. Splitter. (I'm including wOBA because that's what someone actually watching the games would see.) .226 / .183. Slider .226 / .193. Cutter. Also his #3 pitch by usage (slider was 1, sinker 2).
.272 / .202. Sinker
1st. Rank of Garret Whitock in innings 1 through 4 by a wide margin in his first three starts in 2022. He pretty clearly strained something when they send him out for a 5th inning in his 3rd start, and he hit 60 pitches for the first time in more or less forever. (Yes, he qualifies, ranking 150th in PA at that point in the season. He would have qualified more easily with IP, but Statcast doesn't have that.)
I'm going to post this now and add bit more about Whitlock later ... his decline in innings 1 through 4 in his remaining six starts, versus the first three, was easily significant statistically. I think he's fully healthy for the first time since them.
(I'm also going to double-check my negative rankings, which I did through memory!)
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Post by patford on Mar 29, 2024 20:20:47 GMT -5
What are the worst case scenarios for 2024? 1. Yankees win World Series. 2. Yankees win the AL Pennant. 3. Yankees make the AL championship game. 4. Yankees make playoff and win first round. 5. Yankees make playoffs. 6. Yankees win one game all year.
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