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What are the best/worst case scenarios for 2024?
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Post by wOBA Fett on Feb 20, 2024 20:19:21 GMT -5
Best case: 84 wins if Bello becomes a #1 starter, everyone stays mostly healthy, Houck and Crawford take a step forward, and the prospects stay legit and provide a spark in September
Worst Case: 56 wins if Bello has a major injury (i.e. TJ), Story/Devers miss major time, Houck and Crawford remain 4/5 starters, and the prospects don't perform as expected
Error Bar is massive and the ceiling and floor are extremely low because of the Division.
FWIW if the Red Sox win 33% of the Division games and go .500 against everyone else they win 72 games.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 20, 2024 20:30:54 GMT -5
Best case: 84 wins if Bello becomes a #1 starter, everyone stays mostly healthy, Houck and Crawford take a step forward, and the prospects stay legit and provide a spark in September Worst Case: 56 wins if Bello has a major injury (i.e. TJ), Story/Devers miss major time, Houck and Crawford remain 4/5 starters, and the prospects don't perform as expected Error Bar is massive this ceiling is the floor is extremely low because of the Division. I had it in the spring training thread but if a lot breaks right and I mean a lot 95 wins. I mean the 2013 Red Sox won 97 when the year before they were worse than the Sox are now. If things go bad I'd say about 68 wins. Theyd probably sell off Jansen, Martin, Gioloito, O'Neill, and Pivetta and then plummet further in the standings. This is why I get annoyed when I hear that if they get player X its only worth 2 games in the standings or whatever. It's not that simple because i think there is a cascading affect. Add some extra wins and suddenly it can multiply. A team feels better about itself, they stay intact and even add come July. Or a team doesnt get that help, struggles, and it can snowball and before long they're auctioning off the potential free agents and wind up playing as a worse version of themselves with the mentality of getting the season over with against teams with something to play for. I just don't think its as linear and this guy is worth 1.3 wins, etc. Its neat to evaluate it that way but I just think there can be a chain reaction as everything impact everything else.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Feb 20, 2024 20:36:40 GMT -5
Best case: 84 wins if Bello becomes a #1 starter, everyone stays mostly healthy, Houck and Crawford take a step forward, and the prospects stay legit and provide a spark in September Worst Case: 56 wins if Bello has a major injury (i.e. TJ), Story/Devers miss major time, Houck and Crawford remain 4/5 starters, and the prospects don't perform as expected Error Bar is massive this ceiling is the floor is extremely low because of the Division. I had it in the spring training thread but if a lot breaks right and I mean a lot 95 wins. I mean the 2013 Red Sox won 97 when the year before they were worse than the Sox are now. If things go bad I'd say about 68 wins. Theyd probably sell off Jansen, Martin, Gioloito, O'Neill, and Pivetta and then plummet further in the standings. This is why I get annoyed when I hear that if they get player X its only worth 2 games in the standings or whatever. It's not that simple because i think there is a cascading affect. Add some extra wins and suddenly it can multiply. A team feels better about itself, they stay intact and even add come July. Or a team doesnt get that help, struggles, and it can snowball and before long they're auctioning off the potential free agents and wind up playing as a worse version of themselves with the mentality of getting the season over with against teams with something to play for. I just don't think its as linear and this guy is worth 1.3 wins, etc. Its neat to evaluate it that way but I just think there can be a chain reaction as everything impact everything else. I'd give them 68 wins the NL Central, but this AL East is freaking loaded.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 20, 2024 20:39:10 GMT -5
I had it in the spring training thread but if a lot breaks right and I mean a lot 95 wins. I mean the 2013 Red Sox won 97 when the year before they were worse than the Sox are now. If things go bad I'd say about 68 wins. Theyd probably sell off Jansen, Martin, Gioloito, O'Neill, and Pivetta and then plummet further in the standings. This is why I get annoyed when I hear that if they get player X its only worth 2 games in the standings or whatever. It's not that simple because i think there is a cascading affect. Add some extra wins and suddenly it can multiply. A team feels better about itself, they stay intact and even add come July. Or a team doesnt get that help, struggles, and it can snowball and before long they're auctioning off the potential free agents and wind up playing as a worse version of themselves with the mentality of getting the season over with against teams with something to play for. I just don't think its as linear and this guy is worth 1.3 wins, etc. Its neat to evaluate it that way but I just think there can be a chain reaction as everything impact everything else. I'd give them 68 wins the NL Central, but this AL East is freaking loaded. Yup and 3 of those other teams have strong farm systems.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Feb 20, 2024 20:45:38 GMT -5
I mean best case everyone is healthy, and worst case Triston Casas tears his ACL over the weekend playing pickup basketball. But putting health aside I guess:
Realistic Non-injury Best Case: 90ish wins
Devers & Casas mash, Story reverts to Colorado form, Yoshida is consistent for his second full season, and guys like Duran & Abreu show that 2023 wasn’t an aberration. Meanwhile, we find out Dave Bush was the worst pitching coach of all time, and the pitching staff is solid with flashes of excellence from Bello, Pivetta, etc.
Also, the front office actually tries to get better at the deadline.
Realistic Non-injury Worst Case: 69 Wins
It turns out Lucas Giolito is just bad now. The cadre of swingmen the team hope can take a leap… don’t. The bullpen is way more flammable than last year. And beyond Devers and Casas, the offense is mediocre. With Netflix filming and Cora looking to the exits, things get ugly. The team sells at the deadline. Also the Yankees win the World Series.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Feb 20, 2024 21:09:49 GMT -5
Based upon their totally uninspiring off-season, My best case is they finish last in their division. Worst case is they finish last in their division by a lot.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Feb 20, 2024 21:18:10 GMT -5
If this is the team they go into the season with - no additional starter or OF acquisition - I am thinking 81 wins (I think I had 78 for my estimate last year).
If they do finally spend a bit of money and make a few key additions - I am thinking 86 wins.
But as others have said - and I've been thinking since early this year - the error bar is going to be significant - they could be quite a bit better, or much worse.
Let's start playing the games and see how it goes. This is my 57th year being a fan of this team - I am not about to start ignoring them now!
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Post by incandenza on Feb 20, 2024 21:55:37 GMT -5
The Padres underperformed their pythagorean record last year by 10 wins and the Marlins overperformed by 9. I think that's a pretty typical range. So if you start from the premise that they're *guaranteed* to have a net run differential of 0, their best/worst outcomes would be about 70-90 wins. If you figure their run differential in a best case scenario would be about +100 and in a worst case scenario would be -100 then you'd want to expand that range to about 60-100 wins.
So there's my out-on-a-limb prediction: Red Sox will win between 60 and 100 games this season.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Feb 20, 2024 22:00:52 GMT -5
Worst case: The plane crashes Best case: they win the world series
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 20, 2024 22:13:22 GMT -5
Best case: 84 wins if Bello becomes a #1 starter, everyone stays mostly healthy, Houck and Crawford take a step forward, and the prospects stay legit and provide a spark in September Worst Case: 56 wins if Bello has a major injury (i.e. TJ), Story/Devers miss major time, Houck and Crawford remain 4/5 starters, and the prospects don't perform as expected Error Bar is massive and the ceiling and floor are extremely low because of the Division. FWIW if the Red Sox win 33% of the Division games and go .500 against everyone else they win 72 games. Every projection system I've seen and win total O/Us have them somewhere in the 79-82 win ballpark. They are not winning 56 games without a legitimate act of god, and the ceiling is going to be higher than 84 wins. I think the realistic ceiling is low 90s wins. It would take the 2021 formula: decent bill of health and above-average outcomes from the new/young guys and question marks on the roster. Some misfortune around the AL East would help too. The realistic floor is more like low 70s wins. It would take a rash of injuries (especially to key pieces like Story, Devers, and Giolito) and many of the young guys just not being up to challenge, leading to a sell-off of all expiring deals at the deadline.
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Post by rhswanzey on Feb 20, 2024 22:28:05 GMT -5
Just want to toss out that we have another hell stretch in the schedule around the same time of year as the 10 in a row vs HOU/LAD (incl Barraclough game) that simply broke the 2023 team.
This one is 26 games in 27 days beginning in mid August - the first stretch includes HOU (6), TEX (3) and BAL (4).
I think it’s relevant info re: what are optimistic outcomes, for a team that already feels light on pitching.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Feb 20, 2024 22:42:12 GMT -5
Just want to toss out that we have another hell stretch in the schedule around the same time of year as the 10 in a row vs HOU/LAD (incl Barraclough game) that simply broke the 2023 team. This one is 26 games in 27 days beginning in mid August - the first stretch includes HOU (6), TEX (3) and BAL (4). I think it’s relevant info re: what are optimistic outcomes, for a team that already feels light on pitching. Woof. I suppose by that time they will have sold at the deadline or brought in reinforcements (or so one can hope…). On the flip side, their March/April schedule has only one playoff team from last year. A team like this really needs to get off to a good start to have any chance for some magic to happen. I don’t think the front office thinks they’re good enough where if they get in a hole during the summer that they’ll be willing to hold the line and hope that water finds its level/count on a rebound (example - the Padres choosing not to sell last year). It’s either start well or Breslow & co. will have their hands hovering over the eject button (Pivetta, Giolito, Martin, Jansen, O’Neill).
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Post by wOBA Fett on Feb 20, 2024 23:10:27 GMT -5
Best case: 84 wins if Bello becomes a #1 starter, everyone stays mostly healthy, Houck and Crawford take a step forward, and the prospects stay legit and provide a spark in September Worst Case: 56 wins if Bello has a major injury (i.e. TJ), Story/Devers miss major time, Houck and Crawford remain 4/5 starters, and the prospects don't perform as expected Error Bar is massive and the ceiling and floor are extremely low because of the Division. FWIW if the Red Sox win 33% of the Division games and go .500 against everyone else they win 72 games. Every projection system I've seen and win total O/Us have them somewhere in the 79-82 win ballpark. They are not winning 56 games without a legitimate act of god, and the ceiling is going to be higher than 84 wins. I think the realistic ceiling is low 90s wins. It would take the 2021 formula: decent bill of health and above-average outcomes from the new/young guys and question marks on the roster. Some misfortune around the AL East would help too. The realistic floor is more like low 70s wins. It would take a rash of injuries (especially to key pieces like Story, Devers, and Giolito) and many of the young guys just not being up to challenge, leading to a sell-off of all expiring deals at the deadline. Go .333 against the AL East and .400 against the rest of baseball and that's 61 wins.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 21, 2024 1:00:29 GMT -5
Every projection system I've seen and win total O/Us have them somewhere in the 79-82 win ballpark. They are not winning 56 games without a legitimate act of god, and the ceiling is going to be higher than 84 wins. I think the realistic ceiling is low 90s wins. It would take the 2021 formula: decent bill of health and above-average outcomes from the new/young guys and question marks on the roster. Some misfortune around the AL East would help too. The realistic floor is more like low 70s wins. It would take a rash of injuries (especially to key pieces like Story, Devers, and Giolito) and many of the young guys just not being up to challenge, leading to a sell-off of all expiring deals at the deadline. Go .333 against the AL East and .400 against the rest of baseball and that's 61 wins. Fangraphs has the sox at 84 wins. Id go up and down from there. Although there may be more downside. Dicision einwill be tough. Orib 93would ge great. Cant see loosing more than 72
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Post by sxfan on Feb 21, 2024 1:23:30 GMT -5
I think the worst case scenario is if one of Pivetta, Bello, or Giolito gets hurt. Those are your 3 guys that will probably eat 170-180 innings this year.
Crawford and Whitlock/Houck won't eat much at the back end, you're probably getting 250 innings combined with all three of them.
There's a very realistic shot Dick Fitts is spot starting games in June, because they have nothing else to go to. The rotation depth is one of the worsts in MLB.
Pivetta and Giolito could get flipped by the trade deadline, if this scenario happens. Which would make the situation even more dire.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 21, 2024 7:24:33 GMT -5
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Post by strike23 on Feb 21, 2024 8:21:08 GMT -5
Obviously true best/worst case scenarios are something like 110 wins or 50 wins but I think reasonable numbers are something like worst case = 2023 nationals, this team is better but in a slightly harder division so ~69 wins seems like a reasonable worst case. For best case I'd take the baseline zips projections that have the team at ~78 wins and adjust with the following assumptions (I know thats not how this is supposed to work but its good enough for rough cut optimism)
Casas plays like he did the 2nd half, over a full season that looks like 2021 Vlad Jr (+4 wins) Story/Devers/Giolito play near their peak years (+ 2 wins each) Pivetta's 2nd half was a legitimate breakout and he's one of the better pitchers in the league (+ 3 wins) Abreu/Duran play full seasons at the same level they showed last year (+ 1 win each)
Thats a 93 win team and ignores the benefits of a healthy Whitlock/Houck/O'Neill, Crawford having a full offseason to ramp up as a starter, and Yoshida having more time at DH/having had a season to adjust to the MLB schedule if you feel like using those in place of any of my "go right" assumptions. It also doesn't take into account that if the team is on a 93 win pace at the deadline that we're probably buyers.
With the upside of the existing team established I do still think we're still the most likely landing spot for Montgomery and I wish we'd addressed rotation depth with a high floor/low ceiling guy either through a trade (ex. Mets/Houser) or signing a guy who didn't need a guaranteed rotation spot (ex. Reds/Suter). I don't think any of the RH FA bats made a lot of sense (our OF is already crowded) but I'd be interested trading for someone like Drury or India depending on prospect cost.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 21, 2024 8:57:31 GMT -5
I think the worst case scenario is if one of Pivetta, Bello, or Giolito gets hurt. Those are your 3 guys that will probably eat 170-180 innings this year. Crawford and Whitlock/Houck won't eat much at the back end, you're probably getting 250 innings combined with all three of them. There's a very realistic shot Dick Fitts is spot starting games in June, because they have nothing else to go to. The rotation depth is one of the worsts in MLB. Pivetta and Giolito could get flipped by the trade deadline, if this scenario happens. Which would make the situation even more dire. Dick Fitts is what, the #10 starter? Giolito, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck, Winckowski, and Criswell are in front of him for sure, and I'm assuming they'd call up Walter before him early in the year because Walter's already on the 40-man and Fitts hasn't had any AAA experience yet. If Fitts is pitching in June out of necessity, not because he's not absolutely dominating in AAA, that means the entire projected rotation is injured or unplayably bad, and at that point the issue isn't lack of depth. I think the starting depth is okay. Not exceptional, but enough to be fine with average injury luck. A lot does depend on how much you believe in Winck and Criswell, though. Edit: Crawford, Whitlock, and Houck also threw 307 innings last year, and that's with Houck breaking his face, Whitlock also missing a good amount of time due to injury, and Crawford and Whitlock pitching out of the pen for a chunk of the year. 307 innings feels closer to the floor for 2024 if these guys are all needed in the rotation for most of the year.
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Post by dejadrew on Feb 21, 2024 8:57:37 GMT -5
Best case from a prospects standpoint is we win the lottery and take the next Holliday
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 21, 2024 9:14:14 GMT -5
Lineup. Best Worst Duran: .295.346.482/828 or 250.300.380/680 Devers: .311.361.555/916 or .271.351.500/.851 Story: .251.329.471.801 or .238.303.434/.737 Casas: .317.417.617/1.034 or .225 .330.398/.728 O'Neill .286.352.560/.912 or .228.308.392/.700 Yoshida .316.382.492/.874 or .289.338.425/.763 Grissom .316.388.474/.862 or.280.313.347/.659 Wong .240.298.400/698 or .235.288.385/.673 Abreu .316.388.474/.862 or .258.331.400/.731
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Post by okin15 on Feb 21, 2024 10:56:45 GMT -5
Lineup Best Worst Duran: .295.346.482/ .828 or .250.300.380/.680 Devers: .311.361.555/ .916 or .271.351.500/.851 Story: .251.329.471/ .801 or .238.303.434/.737 Casas: .317.417.617/1.034 or .225.330.398/.728 O'Neill .286.352.560/ .912 or .228.308.392/.700 Yoshida .316.382.492/ .874 or .289.338.425/.763 Grissom .316.388.474/ .862 or .280.313.347/.659 Wong .240.298.400/ .698 or .235.288.385/.673 Abreu .316.388.474/ .862 or .258.331.400/.731edited for clarity (because I like the way the thinking works).
But also, if that's Story's best-case, we're in more trouble than I thought... I hope someone else shows up to hit third, that's for sure.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Feb 21, 2024 11:35:48 GMT -5
Lineup Best Worst Duran: .295.346.482/ .828 or .250.300.380/.680 Devers: .311.361.555/ .916 or .271.351.500/.851 Story: .251.329.471/ .801 or .238.303.434/.737 Casas: .317.417.617/1.034 or .225.330.398/.728 O'Neill .286.352.560/ .912 or .228.308.392/.700 Yoshida .316.382.492/ .874 or .289.338.425/.763 Grissom .316.388.474/ .862 or .280.313.347/.659 Wong .240.298.400/ .698 or .235.288.385/.673 Abreu .316.388.474/ .862 or .258.331.400/.731edited for clarity (because I like the way the thinking works).
But also, if that's Story's best-case, we're in more trouble than I thought... I hope someone else shows up to hit third, that's for sure.
Thanks for the columns. It was hard to guess for Story because of Coors. Most of these figures are the best and worst a guy has done for a season or half a season, with some guessing thrown in. For Story it seemed silly to picks years when he was 26 or 25 and playing in Coors and finishing 8th or 11 or 12 in MVP. The .251 .329 .471 .801 is his last year at Coors, when the elbow may have been affecting his hitting too. But he did hit 24 HRs that year and steal 20 bases. If Story hits .251 .329 .471 .801 with 20 SBs and GG defense, he'll be a very good player, but as you say not the guy to hit between Devers and Casas, though he is lifetime .299 .372 .601 .973 vs LHP, and .253 .330 .517 .847 in 2022.
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Post by brendan98 on Feb 21, 2024 11:44:53 GMT -5
I feel like the offense can be dynamic, if Grissom is ready to go as a MLB hitter, Duran/Abreu do what they did last year, Casas' 2nd half last year is who he really is, Yoshida's 1st half last year is who he really is, O'Neill and Dalbec can at least be dangerous vs LHP, Rafaela can do enough offensively to feel fine about him in the 9 hole. I believe it will be important for Cora to play matchups more, especially in the outfield/DH spots.
Defensively, if Yoshida's innings in the outfield are mostly replaced by Rafaela, and Story plays a full season at SS the defense will be much improved. Devers can be a little better, but not hoping for much there, hopeful Grissom is athletic enough to be a solid 2B.
As we all know, the rotation is the biggest question mark. If the Sox get 30+ starts from Pivetta, Bello, Giolito and Crawford and they can all be a sub 4.00 ERA or close to it, and one of Houck or Whitlock turns a corner as a starter (I still believe that they might be most effectively used as this is Whitlock/Houck day and we are going to hope that combined they can get through 7 innings every 5th day), or maybe Jordan Montgomery will be a late addition (not counting on it).
The bullpen should be good, especially if the starters are eating innings and they are not over used.
If a lot of the things mentioned above happen, I think this is a playoff team and a really fun team to watch. If not, Breslow will be selling off pieces at the trade deadline, and maybe we will get to see some of the top prospects get their feet wet.
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Post by iamnotluistiant on Feb 21, 2024 11:48:42 GMT -5
With those charts, it is easy to see how Casas leads the majors in walks and Devers (if he doesn't press) isn't far behind. They are going to see nothing to hit until someone else shows some power. (Good chance that the Sox also lead the majors in men left on base and grounding into double plays).
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Post by 0ap0 on Feb 21, 2024 11:57:53 GMT -5
Best: the team is solid and spends the year in the midst of a pack of other good teams at the rear of an extremely competitive division.
Worst: the team falls behind early, is not bolstered by an FO willing to invest in the current season, then the wheels come off as everyone gets frustrated and starts eyeing the exits.
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