|
Post by ematz1423 on Mar 6, 2024 15:34:35 GMT -5
I'm going to guess 5/50M with an option for a 6th year at $20M.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Mar 6, 2024 15:40:04 GMT -5
Greene signed with 1 year of service time, with 28 being the first FA year:
$2M signing bonus 23:$1M, 24:$3M, 25:$6M, 26:$8M, 27:$15M, 28:$16M, 29:$21M club option ($2M buyout)
I believe most people would agree that Greene's market value was higher at time of signing, although Bello's side may not see it that way. If they matched this deal for Bello then I don't really think it's any better than going year to year.
|
|
|
Post by puzzler on Mar 6, 2024 15:41:25 GMT -5
I'll say 6/$65M.
|
|
|
Post by asm18 on Mar 6, 2024 15:43:24 GMT -5
This just proves John Henry is cheap because he's choosing to pay Brayan Bello 60-70 million dollars now instead of 9 figures later.
(Casas extension next?)
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Mar 6, 2024 15:48:27 GMT -5
This seems like it would be a disaster of a deal to me. They get no extra control, add a bunch of risk, and probably end up paying him more than he would make otherwise, even if he is good.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Mar 6, 2024 15:51:07 GMT -5
This seems like it would be a disaster of a deal to me. They get no extra control, add a bunch of risk, and probably end up paying him more than he would make otherwise, even if he is good. He's a hair over a year of service time I believe so technically a 6th year would be an added year. Or if they did what Cotillo floated in his tweet and have him play his pre-arb year out this year and the extension starts in 2025 and is a 6 year deal they'd gain two years of added control.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Mar 6, 2024 15:51:46 GMT -5
This is not a good idea. But what its doing is taking our mind off signing a free agent pitcher who would cost more so this is a pathetic attempt to sway the fans. After this year I would be interested if he has another successful year. Makes no sense to do it right now.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
|
Post by nomar on Mar 6, 2024 15:54:34 GMT -5
This is not a good idea. But what it’s doing is taking our mind off signing a free agent pitcher who would cost more so this is a pathetic attempt to sway the fans. After this year I would be interested if he has another successful year. Makes no sense to do it right now. After another good year his price would go way up. This is a stupid take all around, but that’s par for the course.
|
|
|
Post by soxfaninnj on Mar 6, 2024 15:56:20 GMT -5
My guess 5/75 with three team options at 20 a pop
|
|
|
Post by bosox904 on Mar 6, 2024 16:02:53 GMT -5
May as well take a guess. I'll say 7 years $84 million with a team option.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Mar 6, 2024 16:03:28 GMT -5
This seems like it would be a disaster of a deal to me. They get no extra control, add a bunch of risk, and probably end up paying him more than he would make otherwise, even if he is good. He's a hair over a year of service time I believe so technically a 6th year would be an added year. Or if they did what Cotillo floated in his tweet and have him play his pre-arb year out this year and the extension starts in 2025 and is a 6 year deal they'd gain two years of added control. Going off Fangraphs he's controlled through 2028, so 6 seasons, but I'm not 100% confident that that is accurate.
|
|
|
Post by puzzler on Mar 6, 2024 16:06:57 GMT -5
This seems like it would be a disaster of a deal to me. They get no extra control, add a bunch of risk, and probably end up paying him more than he would make otherwise, even if he is good. He's a hair over a year of service time I believe so technically a 6th year would be an added year. Or if they did what Cotillo floated in his tweet and have him play his pre-arb year out this year and the extension starts in 2025 and is a 6 year deal they'd gain two years of added control. Run for your lives...it's a disaster!!!! AHHHHHHH.....
|
|
|
Post by puzzler on Mar 6, 2024 16:07:46 GMT -5
He's a hair over a year of service time I believe so technically a 6th year would be an added year. Or if they did what Cotillo floated in his tweet and have him play his pre-arb year out this year and the extension starts in 2025 and is a 6 year deal they'd gain two years of added control. Going off Fangraphs he's controlled through 2028, so 6 seasons, but I'm not 100% confident that that is accurate. Yeah, including this year...that's five seasons at the conclusion of the 2028 season.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Mar 6, 2024 16:08:23 GMT -5
He's a hair over a year of service time I believe so technically a 6th year would be an added year. Or if they did what Cotillo floated in his tweet and have him play his pre-arb year out this year and the extension starts in 2025 and is a 6 year deal they'd gain two years of added control. Going off Fangraphs he's controlled through 2028, so 6 seasons, but I'm not 100% confident that that is accurate. That's what I'm seeing as well, both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference say 1.082 years of service time as of today and FA in 2029. I have no reason to necessarily think it's wrong but who knows. If they're correct then yes a 5 year deal kicking in from today doesn't appear to do them any good as far as I can tell. Would have to be at least 6 or contain options. Which even then I'm pretty take it or leave it in terms of a Bello extension. Doesn't appear to me to be necessary but I do like Bello so if they can buy out at least a year of FA I would understand.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Mar 6, 2024 16:14:10 GMT -5
Going off Fangraphs he's controlled through 2028, so 6 seasons, but I'm not 100% confident that that is accurate. Yeah, including this year...that's five seasons at the conclusion of the 2028 season. Yep it is in fact 2024 and not 2023, that is totally my bad, apologies lol. Anyways, I still wouldn't be totally pumped about the deal you mentioned without any added club options, but it's much more reasonable when I am able to get the year correct.
|
|
|
Post by puzzler on Mar 6, 2024 16:19:03 GMT -5
Yeah, including this year...that's five seasons at the conclusion of the 2028 season. Yep it is in fact 2024 and not 2023, that is totally my bad, apologies lol. Anyways, I still wouldn't be totally pumped about the deal you mentioned without any added club options, but it's much more reasonable when I am able to get the year correct. Ultimately, I'm thinking there is a premium that has to be paid by the Red Sox to get this done. Bello definitely wants an extension - he's getting money he wouldn't get, but I think the Red Sox need it even more from a PR perspective. I don't care about the PR aspect - but I do think Bello's agent will be able to extract it. If it comes in less than that, it will make me feel even better about it.
|
|
|
Post by yuchangclan on Mar 6, 2024 16:36:34 GMT -5
This is not a good idea. But what it’s doing is taking our mind off signing a free agent pitcher who would cost more so this is a pathetic attempt to sway the fans. After this year I would be interested if he has another successful year. Makes no sense to do it right now. After another good year his price would go way up. This is a stupid take all around, but that’s par for the course. And if he underachieves this year?? I have no issue waiting on this extension. I don’t see any rush. I also haven’t been overly impressed with Bello overall. He’s had some moments, for sure, but is he even a #2 type? Add in his injury history and his build and I’m a bit apprehensive long-term.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Mar 6, 2024 16:38:03 GMT -5
This is not a good idea. But what it’s doing is taking our mind off signing a free agent pitcher who would cost more so this is a pathetic attempt to sway the fans. After this year I would be interested if he has another successful year. Makes no sense to do it right now. After another good year his price would go way up. This is a stupid take all around, but that’s par for the course. how would it go way up exactly? He's under team control until after 2028. So what we pay him way more money now to get 2 extra years of control? Please explain why it makes sense to pay a man more money per year to get 2 more years of control down the road when we can wait and pay him peanuts until 2029. That's par for the course? Sweet.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Mar 6, 2024 16:40:12 GMT -5
After another good year his price would go way up. This is a stupid take all around, but that’s par for the course. And if he underachieves this year?? I have no issue waiting on this extension. I don’t see any rush. I also haven’t been overly impressed with Bello overall. He’s had some moments, for sure, but is he even a #2 type? Add in his injury history and his build and I’m a bit apprehensive long-term. Ok. And if he has a cy young season the price sky rockets. And then the mouth breathers on sports talk radio yell and scream the sox are cheap and missed a chance to extend him
|
|
|
Post by soxfanatic on Mar 6, 2024 16:51:47 GMT -5
Any chance the Red Sox will wait to announce the deal until they're in the DR?
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Mar 6, 2024 16:56:44 GMT -5
After another good year his price would go way up. This is a stupid take all around, but that’s par for the course. how would it go way up exactly? He's under team control until after 2028. So what we pay him way more money now to get 2 extra years of control? Please explain why it makes sense to pay a man more money per year to get 2 more years of control down the road when we can wait and pay him peanuts until 2029. That's par for the course? Sweet. It makes sense to get two more years of control down the road because then they would be able to keep him on the team for two more years. To convince him to agree to this they would give him money. Does that help?
|
|
|
Post by kwodes on Mar 6, 2024 16:57:35 GMT -5
If he does have 5 yrs of control left, I'd say 6/66 with 2 team options at 20 mil per yr. Add in some incentives and escalators for inning benchmarks or cy young votes where the final value could be 8/120-130.
Someone help me out with CBT calculations. It's only the guaranteed money that counts correct? So this would count for $11 mil against the cbt since the 2 team options are not guaranteed to the player? Or do the team options count so it'd be roughly $13 mil?
|
|
|
Post by chaimtime on Mar 6, 2024 16:58:27 GMT -5
Bello is probably capped at around $30 million total compensation over the next five years (including this one), and that’s a generous projection. 5/50, kicking in next year, would be a very tidy bit of business for him. I’d have to imagine the Sox are looking for more years than that, they gain very very little from a deal like that.
I dont see any reason to delay the start of the extension until next year, since they’re likely to remain far under the tax. It has no effect on the actual payroll, so might as well take advantage of the cushion you’ve left yourself and keep the future tax hit lower.
|
|
|
Post by chaimtime on Mar 6, 2024 17:08:05 GMT -5
After another good year his price would go way up. This is a stupid take all around, but that’s par for the course. how would it go way up exactly? He's under team control until after 2028. So what we pay him way more money now to get 2 extra years of control? Please explain why it makes sense to pay a man more money per year to get 2 more years of control down the road when we can wait and pay him peanuts until 2029. That's par for the course? Sweet. you don’t pay him any more money, these pre-arbitration extensions are usually structured so that the guy still isn't making much at all in his pre-arb years. You basically tack on an extra year or two of control for somewhere around what you’d expect market rate to be, but the cheap early years help keep the AAV down for luxury tax purposes. I’d agree that it’s a bad idea if they don’t get much control beyond ‘28, but those extra years of control are kind of the whole reason the team would go for an extension, so I would think they’d want to have him under control thru 2030 or so. 2030. Man, do I feel old. EDIT: Realized I didn’t actually answer your question—if he plays through this year and has another good season, he has more leverage over the Sox because he’s more proven, and the Sox have less leverage over him because he’s got one fewer year at the league minimum to factor into the offer. So the AAV would almost surely go way up.
|
|
|
Post by Jimmy on Mar 6, 2024 18:11:27 GMT -5
The Twitter reports with years and $ feel made up.
The dude who originally broke “5/$50M” said or is now saying “at least 5/$50M” which frankly anyone on here could have told you as soon as Spier broke that they are in deep discussions. Until I see more precise figures or something from a more reliable source I’m not buying the numbers random Twitter accounts are throwing around.
|
|