|
Post by julyanmorley on Mar 6, 2024 18:11:38 GMT -5
This would be not counting 2024 it sounds like, so if you count that it's 6/50+ with at least one option year
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Mar 6, 2024 18:13:26 GMT -5
The Twitter reports with years and $ feel made up. The dude who originally broke “5/$50M” said or is now saying “at least 5/$50M” which frankly anyone on here could have told you as soon as Spier broke that they are in deep discussions. Until I see more precise figures or something from a more reliable source I’m not buying the numbers random Twitter accounts are throwing around. I can't remember for sure, but my memory is that Yancen Pujols knew what was going on with Devers last year
|
|
|
Post by strike23 on Mar 6, 2024 18:17:33 GMT -5
Bello is probably capped at around $30 million total compensation over the next five years (including this one), and that’s a generous projection. 5/50, kicking in next year, would be a very tidy bit of business for him. I’d have to imagine the Sox are looking for more years than that, they gain very very little from a deal like that. I dont see any reason to delay the start of the extension until next year, since they’re likely to remain far under the tax. It has no effect on the actual payroll, so might as well take advantage of the cushion you’ve left yourself and keep the future tax hit lower. I think 30M is realistically more than he'll make in arb but we tend to ignore the impact of salary inflation. Burnes made ~32M and started arb in '22 Bello will start (would have started?) in '27. 5 years of MLB salaries ticking up by 5% annually would put an equivalent run through arb at 40M for Bello. We'd be really lucky for Bello to be Burnes but its something to keep in mind when comparing past contracts (or arb settlements) to future values. Edit: This is also something people are bad at understanding with deferrals like Ohtani. Its absolutely wild to me that Trea Turner signed a contract through his age 40 season at a higher annual present value than Betts is signed to through his age 40 season.
|
|
|
Post by sxfan on Mar 6, 2024 18:56:19 GMT -5
Hopefully there's 2 option years tied in or it feels pretty meh. Be really good with the options. I was hoping for 8 years, but 7 years would be fine.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
|
Post by nomar on Mar 6, 2024 19:17:46 GMT -5
After another good year his price would go way up. This is a stupid take all around, but that’s par for the course. And if he underachieves this year?? I have no issue waiting on this extension. I don’t see any rush. I also haven’t been overly impressed with Bello overall. He’s had some moments, for sure, but is he even a #2 type? Add in his injury history and his build and I’m a bit apprehensive long-term. By the time he hits free agency even backend starters are going to be getting a lot of money. It’s smart to lock down 1-2 years of would-be free agency.
|
|
|
Post by sxfan on Mar 6, 2024 19:47:54 GMT -5
And if he underachieves this year?? I have no issue waiting on this extension. I don’t see any rush. I also haven’t been overly impressed with Bello overall. He’s had some moments, for sure, but is he even a #2 type? Add in his injury history and his build and I’m a bit apprehensive long-term. By the time he hits free agency even backend starters are going to be getting a lot of money. It’s smart to lock down 1-2 years of would-be free agency. I can't believe people are arguing against signing good pitchers long term after the load of crap the Sox have had the past 4 years. Kluber, Garret Richards, the entire 2020 rotation, TBD games for the past 2 years.
|
|
|
Post by KoreaSoxFan on Mar 6, 2024 20:39:26 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by asm18 on Mar 6, 2024 21:31:49 GMT -5
The Twitter reports with years and $ feel made up. The dude who originally broke “5/$50M” said or is now saying “at least 5/$50M” which frankly anyone on here could have told you as soon as Spier broke that they are in deep discussions. Until I see more precise figures or something from a more reliable source I’m not buying the numbers random Twitter accounts are throwing around. I can't remember for sure, but my memory is that Yancen Pujols knew what was going on with Devers last year This is correct:
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 6, 2024 22:11:32 GMT -5
I think 30M is realistically more than he'll make in arb but we tend to ignore the impact of salary inflation. Burnes made ~32M and started arb in '22 Bello will start (would have started?) in '27. 5 years of MLB salaries ticking up by 5% annually would put an equivalent run through arb at 40M for Bello. We'd be really lucky for Bello to be Burnes but its something to keep in mind when comparing past contracts (or arb settlements) to future values. Edit: This is also something people are bad at understanding with deferrals like Ohtani. Its absolutely wild to me that Trea Turner signed a contract through his age 40 season at a higher annual present value than Betts is signed to through his age 40 season. It will be interesting to see if they wait to make the deal official until just before the season starts to allow for other signings before choosing to declare the contract pre, or post, opening day (for CBA calculations). If it's officially submitted (as pre-opening day) to the league right away, that would indicate that Montgomery/Snell aren't in the cards. Slight issue with your calculations above. The 5% number is correct for deferral holdings but due to a series of short-sighted agreements by the players, the increase in payroll over the past decade (2014-2023) has been just under 3% per year. I think that's a more accurate number unless you have numbers indicating that arbitration is rising at a rate higher than overall payroll.
|
|
|
Post by dirtdog on Mar 6, 2024 22:19:12 GMT -5
I'd like to see more from Bello first. I know the talent is there but I want to see consistency for a while.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Mar 6, 2024 22:54:16 GMT -5
This is one of the few moments where not having a Twitter account is a pain. I have just been refreshing this thread every 5-10 minutes waiting for a blank post (surefire sign there's meant to be a Twitter embed in it) that I can then Quote, extract the Twitter URL from, and paste it into a new tab to *finally* see what the fuss is about. Getting a push notification would be such a luxury lol
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Mar 6, 2024 22:58:42 GMT -5
This is one of the few moments where not having a Twitter account is a pain. I have just been refreshing this thread every 5-10 minutes waiting for a blank post (surefire sign there's meant to be a Twitter embed in it) that I can then Quote, extract the Twitter URL from, and paste it into a new tab to *finally* see what the fuss is about. Getting a push notification would be such a luxury lol I just need to know if they're going to foreshadow more spending by not including 2024 in the deal
|
|
|
Post by soxfaninnj on Mar 6, 2024 23:28:30 GMT -5
This is one of the few moments where not having a Twitter account is a pain. I have just been refreshing this thread every 5-10 minutes waiting for a blank post (surefire sign there's meant to be a Twitter embed in it) that I can then Quote, extract the Twitter URL from, and paste it into a new tab to *finally* see what the fuss is about. Getting a push notification would be such a luxury lol Not having a Twitter is the best thing, Red Sox Twitter is a dumpster fire on nuclear steroids
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,825
|
Post by nomar on Mar 6, 2024 23:31:14 GMT -5
This is one of the few moments where not having a Twitter account is a pain. I have just been refreshing this thread every 5-10 minutes waiting for a blank post (surefire sign there's meant to be a Twitter embed in it) that I can then Quote, extract the Twitter URL from, and paste it into a new tab to *finally* see what the fuss is about. Getting a push notification would be such a luxury lol I just need to know if they're going to foreshadow more spending by not including 2024 in the deal Bingo
|
|
|
Post by ephus on Mar 6, 2024 23:58:32 GMT -5
I am 100% on board with: 1. Buying out the arbitration years and adding 1 or two years past free agency 2. Avoiding year-to-year arbitration battles that leave a bitter taste once free agency arrives 3. Showing the other players in the system that the team will "take care" of its own, which the media and twitter fan base has roundly declared they will not do 4. Very happy for Bello
Next let's do Casas and then let's cook.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Mar 7, 2024 0:24:04 GMT -5
how would it go way up exactly? He's under team control until after 2028. So what we pay him way more money now to get 2 extra years of control? Please explain why it makes sense to pay a man more money per year to get 2 more years of control down the road when we can wait and pay him peanuts until 2029. That's par for the course? Sweet. you don’t pay him any more money, these pre-arbitration extensions are usually structured so that the guy still isn't making much at all in his pre-arb years. You basically tack on an extra year or two of control for somewhere around what you’d expect market rate to be, but the cheap early years help keep the AAV down for luxury tax purposes. I’d agree that it’s a bad idea if they don’t get much control beyond ‘28, but those extra years of control are kind of the whole reason the team would go for an extension, so I would think they’d want to have him under control thru 2030 or so. 2030. Man, do I feel old. EDIT: Realized I didn’t actually answer your question—if he plays through this year and has another good season, he has more leverage over the Sox because he’s more proven, and the Sox have less leverage over him because he’s got one fewer year at the league minimum to factor into the offer. So the AAV would almost surely go way up. Thank you.
|
|
|
Post by yuchangclan on Mar 7, 2024 0:40:42 GMT -5
I'd like to see more from Bello first. I know the talent is there but I want to see consistency for a while. Agreed. I haven’t seen enough to go beyond 2028 with Bello. I’d like to see him pitch a full healthy season and emerge as a #2 starter before committing to 2029(and beyond). But I also understand that the Red Sox have become the scorned lover franchise trying to cling to any homegrown talent they can at this point. Now they can say “See! We take care of our own!” At least it will be a lot cheaper than the Devers extension. I hope it works out. Side note: Did the Sox make a concerted effort to extend Devers back in the day when he would have come at a reasonable cost? I don’t recall it.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Mar 7, 2024 0:48:22 GMT -5
I'd like to see more from Bello first. I know the talent is there but I want to see consistency for a while. Agreed. I haven’t seen enough to go beyond 2028 with Bello. I’d like to see him pitch a full healthy season and emerge as a #2 starter before committing to 2029(and beyond). But I also understand that the Red Sox have become the scorned lover franchise trying to cling to any homegrown talent they can at this point. Now they can say “See! We take care of our own!” At least it will be a lot cheaper than the Devers extension. I hope it works out. Side note: Did the Sox make a concerted effort to extend Devers back in the day when he would have come at a reasonable cost? I don’t recall it. Im saying were in desperate need of SP. So instead of trying to sign one were focused on extending one that we have team control over until hes 29 and hes 24 right now. Unless its for 8+ years I dont get it.
|
|
|
Post by bosox904 on Mar 7, 2024 4:20:43 GMT -5
Agreed. I haven’t seen enough to go beyond 2028 with Bello. I’d like to see him pitch a full healthy season and emerge as a #2 starter before committing to 2029(and beyond). But I also understand that the Red Sox have become the scorned lover franchise trying to cling to any homegrown talent they can at this point. Now they can say “See! We take care of our own!” At least it will be a lot cheaper than the Devers extension. I hope it works out. Side note: Did the Sox make a concerted effort to extend Devers back in the day when he would have come at a reasonable cost? I don’t recall it. Im saying were in desperate need of SP. So instead of trying to sign one were focused on extending one that we have team control over until hes 29 and hes 24 right now. Unless its for 8+ years I dont get it. A front office is capable of multi tasking
|
|
|
Post by strike23 on Mar 7, 2024 6:33:42 GMT -5
I think 30M is realistically more than he'll make in arb but we tend to ignore the impact of salary inflation. Burnes made ~32M and started arb in '22 Bello will start (would have started?) in '27. 5 years of MLB salaries ticking up by 5% annually would put an equivalent run through arb at 40M for Bello. We'd be really lucky for Bello to be Burnes but its something to keep in mind when comparing past contracts (or arb settlements) to future values. Edit: This is also something people are bad at understanding with deferrals like Ohtani. Its absolutely wild to me that Trea Turner signed a contract through his age 40 season at a higher annual present value than Betts is signed to through his age 40 season. It will be interesting to see if they wait to make the deal official until just before the season starts to allow for other signings before choosing to declare the contract pre, or post, opening day (for CBA calculations). If it's officially submitted (as pre-opening day) to the league right away, that would indicate that Montgomery/Snell aren't in the cards. Slight issue with your calculations above. The 5% number is correct for deferral holdings but due to a series of short-sighted agreements by the players, the increase in payroll over the past decade (2014-2023) has been just under 3% per year. I think that's a more accurate number unless you have numbers indicating that arbitration is rising at a rate higher than overall payroll. 5% was just trying to swag a mid line number for demonstrative purposes. The best way to compare payroll changes would be limiting it to the current CBA but since we only have 2022-2023 (~7.5%) for that its not worth a ton. 2003-2023 long term average salary inflation also appears to be somewhere around 3% but the recent CBA really messes with everything because of roster size changes and a 20+% bump to league minimum. Even using 3% Bello's equivalent to Burnes would be $37M so its still more than I think most people would recognize. As an aside while differences in talent level for each arb class make year to year arb numbers super noisy and hard to evaluate there is reason to think there will be short term outsized gains because of the increased salary minimums and the 2023 arb1 class being based off an increase from 700k instead of 570k.
|
|
|
Post by asm18 on Mar 7, 2024 8:05:55 GMT -5
I’m not as up to speed on $/WAR calculations (ie whether the contract is “worth it” based on the production.) How good does Bello need to be roughly over the next 5-6 years to justify the deal? He was worth 1.6 fWAR last year, and is projected for like 2 - 2.5 war this year.
Let’s say he has a career path like E-rod - a mid-rotation guy who still shows upside as a lower-case “ace” from time to time. E-rod dealt with a handful of injuries, and also went AWOL for half a season (he literally disappeared in 2022 for the Tigers in his first year there and didn’t answer their phone calls). But for seasons 2-7 (2016-2022) he totaled 13.6 war and averaged 4.19 ERA and 3.88 FIP over 826 innings (137 innings per season). If Bello merely matches that, is the contract a win?
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Mar 7, 2024 8:24:02 GMT -5
I’m not as up to speed on $/WAR calculations (ie whether the contract is “worth it” based on the production.) How good does Bello need to be roughly over the next 5-6 years to justify the deal? He was worth 1.6 fWAR last year, and is projected for like 2 - 2.5 war this year. Let’s say he has a career path like E-rod - a mid-rotation guy who still shows upside as a lower-case “ace” from time to time. E-rod dealt with a handful of injuries, and also went AWOL for half a season (he literally disappeared in 2022 for the Tigers in his first year there and didn’t answer their phone calls). But for seasons 2-7 (2016-2022) he totaled 13.6 war and averaged 4.19 ERA and 3.88 FIP over 826 innings (137 innings per season). If Bello merely matches that, is the contract a win? At the very bottom of Fangraphs they have a section for value that says what a players $ value was that season. How they calculate I couldn't really tell you other than they probably give a certain $ value per WAR. Last year at 1.6 fWAR they said he was worth 12.8M. That calculates to 1 fWAR=$8M. I think it's fair to assume that the $ value per WAR will continue to rise as well. Let's assume that the reports are correct and he is looking at something like 5/50M ballpark then at $10AAV it's not that hard of a bar for him to pass to easily be worth that AAV as I also think he will improve on those WAR #s as he enters his prime. Whether they come out ahead all that much in an extension vs just playing out his pre-arb and arb years is another question though.
|
|
|
Post by scottysmalls on Mar 7, 2024 8:36:47 GMT -5
In the context of an extension “worth it” is also relative to what the team otherwise would have paid him for the 5 years of control they already have. Two pre-arb then three escalating arb years.
$8-$10m per WAR is the going rate in free agency, but that’s not what they would pay Bello for the next few years, so for the contract to be a value it has to come in under that number.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Mar 7, 2024 8:40:39 GMT -5
I’m not as up to speed on $/WAR calculations (ie whether the contract is “worth it” based on the production.) How good does Bello need to be roughly over the next 5-6 years to justify the deal? He was worth 1.6 fWAR last year, and is projected for like 2 - 2.5 war this year. Let’s say he has a career path like E-rod - a mid-rotation guy who still shows upside as a lower-case “ace” from time to time. E-rod dealt with a handful of injuries, and also went AWOL for half a season (he literally disappeared in 2022 for the Tigers in his first year there and didn’t answer their phone calls). But for seasons 2-7 (2016-2022) he totaled 13.6 war and averaged 4.19 ERA and 3.88 FIP over 826 innings (137 innings per season). If Bello merely matches that, is the contract a win? They already have him for 5 years, and a typical payout would be $20-$30 million going year to year. So anything he signs is a good deal in one sense, but what really matters is if it's better than having him for 5/30 with most of the money non-guaranteed in case he has arm trouble.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Mar 7, 2024 8:46:29 GMT -5
I’m not as up to speed on $/WAR calculations (ie whether the contract is “worth it” based on the production.) How good does Bello need to be roughly over the next 5-6 years to justify the deal? He was worth 1.6 fWAR last year, and is projected for like 2 - 2.5 war this year. Let’s say he has a career path like E-rod - a mid-rotation guy who still shows upside as a lower-case “ace” from time to time. E-rod dealt with a handful of injuries, and also went AWOL for half a season (he literally disappeared in 2022 for the Tigers in his first year there and didn’t answer their phone calls). But for seasons 2-7 (2016-2022) he totaled 13.6 war and averaged 4.19 ERA and 3.88 FIP over 826 innings (137 innings per season). If Bello merely matches that, is the contract a win? Eduardo Rodrigues made just over $55 million from 2016-2022, $31 million of that coming in his two free agent years. He didn't get a raise in his last year in arb, though, since it followed his covid lacuna. Factor in that plus inflation and Bello would figure to make, what, $62-65 million over those years or so? Or $80-85 million through his second free agent year.
|
|