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4/23-4/25 Red Sox @ Guardians Series Thread
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Post by incandenza on Apr 24, 2024 22:27:01 GMT -5
The argument has never been that he can't play shortstop. The scouting consensus is that he's merely above average at SS, but an elite, borderline 80-tier defensive CF. If the bat comes around no one will question him at SS, but he hasn't shown nearly enough with the bat for above average defense at SS to cut it; he has earned every bit of his -0.6 fWAR thus far, mostly due to his offensive limitations.
Until recently the Sox did not have enough healthy outfielders to obligate a Rafaela move to the infield, so this was actually a talking point. Now with 5 healthy OFs, a threadbare IF, and Yoshida already being benched excessively there's no decision to be made. Even if he's replacement level, he's clearly the best man for the job defensively and the Sox need to get their OF bats in the lineup. I think you are seeing what you want to see. Last year there were several comments that given reps he's also a gold glove caliber shortstop. He made tons of great plays at shortstop in the minors and his range is such that he'll make better defenders out of the third baseman, second baseman and left fielder because they can all move a step or two away. I honestly think you are trying to justify a horrible take.
I never had any reason to question the site's scouting report, which notstarboard posted above, though he looked only okay at SS to me last year. OAA and DRS were both -1 in 45 innings at SS. (Small sample size so I still deferred to the scouting report.) This year (before today) he was actually at -2 OAA and -1 DRS, though he's looked better than that to me. That one play today actually did meaningfully move my view of his shortstop defense, though, because I don't think it's a play a merely good shortstop ever makes.
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Post by strike23 on Apr 24, 2024 22:28:18 GMT -5
It's huge to have plus SS defence and drop a black hole out of the lineup. Props to Duran for turning things around in CF as well. Coming into tonight, Hamilton had a 56 wRC+ on the year compared to 25 for Rafaela. That's my point, only playing one of them is a big step up from both of them
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 24, 2024 22:34:15 GMT -5
I may be grumpy this evening, but I'm not making things up. The SP.com writeup on him says pretty much exactly that. "Has shown the potential to be a plus defender all around the diamond, but is best in center field, where projects as plus-plus to elite." Then we interpret differently, potential to be a plus defender all around the diamond doesn't say merely above average to me. Projects best in center field doesn't limit other possibilities but he is plus plus now there. Nobody is arguing that. Hamilton is a below average hitter and defender and always will be. At best he's an emergency up and down guy. All we need to agree upon for my argument to be valid is that plus-plus to elite >> plus. My comment about Hamilton was specifically replying to a post (Edit: which I apparently misunderstood) about about Rafaela replacing a black hole in the lineup by playing SS. He has been the bigger black hole this year. I wanted to see Hamilton get a shot until the outfield was healthy again because I think the delta between him and Ceddanne at SS is less than the delta between the cumulative OF defensive improvement from Ceddanne playing CF. And leaving Ceddanne in CF has the added bonus of getting him more work at his likely long-term defensive home. Once Refsnyder, and especially Refsnyder + O'Neill were back, Ceddanne definitely should have moved to the infield, because now you're keeping a superior hitter on the bench, which flips the calculus. And doubly so given how hot most of the outfield has been offensively.
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 24, 2024 22:35:36 GMT -5
Coming into tonight, Hamilton had a 56 wRC+ on the year compared to 25 for Rafaela. That's my point, only playing one of them is a big step up from both of them Ah, in that case I agree. I was considering that black hole already filled regardless of who plays SS by dint of Rob and TON coming back.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 24, 2024 22:40:54 GMT -5
Wilyer Abreu through April 18th: .184/.295/.263 Wilyer Abreu through April 24th: .322/.412/.542
okay now it's Enmanuel's turn
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 22:41:42 GMT -5
I must be missing something here. You are saying they shouldn't DH Devers after a game when he went 3 for 4 with a walk and homer as the DH? You say he is their most important player, which I can agree with because I think he is their best hitter. So I can't agree that Yoshida is a comparable option. Devers is a better hitter than Yoshida. And if the Red Sox want to DH him on his first game back (just like they did with O'Neil and Grissom at AAA) or even for a couple of games, I am fine with that, especially since Devers is not that good in the field. I am just happy he is back and contributing in a game where they beat Cleveland for a change. Yes. A bad decision that works out is still a bad decision. Healthy Devers is a better hitter than healthy Yoshida, but Devers and Yoshida had near identical production on the year coming into tonight, with Yoshida being especially good lately. The advantage of playing Devers in the field is it lets you get Yoshida's bat in the lineup too instead of Reyes and thereby flips an offensive black hole into a useful offensive player. And of course, if he comes back too early and aggravates his injury, that's the worst case scenario of any of this. With Devers, the shoulder is more worrisome to me than the knee.
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Post by strike23 on Apr 24, 2024 22:43:27 GMT -5
That's my point, only playing one of them is a big step up from both of them Ah, in that case I agree. I was considering that black hole already filled regardless of who plays SS by dint of Rob and TON coming back. even with Duran/abreu/TON all healthy CR saw almost all the CF reps because of his D, just glad Duran stepped up for CF and it's put us in a spot to have plus SS D again
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Post by strike23 on Apr 24, 2024 22:44:31 GMT -5
Wilyer Abreu through April 18th: .184/.295/.263 Wilyer Abreu through April 24th: .322/.412/.542
okay now it's Enmanuel's turn
Anyone have that CR/pedroia comp that was floating around?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 24, 2024 22:46:45 GMT -5
The combination of speed, glove, and arm are not that common. As an above average SS - and that's his floor to my mind - if he gets to .250/.300/.450 which I think he can, he's a 4-5 WAR player. That'll work.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 24, 2024 22:53:04 GMT -5
The combination of speed, glove, and arm are not that common. As an above average SS - and that's his floor to my mind - if he gets to .250/.300/.450 which I think he can, he's a 4-5 WAR player. That'll work. This is nitpicky but for that line to be 4-5 WAR at shortstop I think you have to be very good defensively. Like +10 OAA which I think is more than a little above average. That’s almost exactly what Willy Adames did in 2022.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 23:00:45 GMT -5
To me, the key to Rafaela being one tick better than anyone else is his transfer speed. Transfer speed works anyplace but especially at shortstop. Watch him closely, even on routine plays. He's Pedroia fast in that regard.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 23:04:47 GMT -5
Rafaela has a higher OPS than Hamilton, Valdez, Reyes and Dalbec. He's not close to the biggest offensive black hole. Additionally, when he's at shortstop, that means one more outfield bat is also in the lineup.
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Post by foreverred9 on Apr 24, 2024 23:10:26 GMT -5
Rafaela has a higher OPS than Hamilton, Valdez, Reyes and Dalbec. He's not close to the biggest offensive black hole. Additionally, when he's at shortstop, that means one more outfield bat is also in the lineup. Fair, but Rafaela is the only one of those 5 projected to be a starter next year (and for the next 5 after that) so in my opinion that causing more scrutiny over his bat in general by folks.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 23:16:23 GMT -5
Rafaela has a higher OPS than Hamilton, Valdez, Reyes and Dalbec. He's not close to the biggest offensive black hole. Additionally, when he's at shortstop, that means one more outfield bat is also in the lineup. Fair, but Rafaela is the only one of those 5 projected to be a starter next year (and for the next 5 after that) so in my opinion that causing more scrutiny over his bat in general by folks. True that but we're also talking about SSS to start a career and projecting it to his future.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 24, 2024 23:17:42 GMT -5
Rafaela has a higher OPS than Hamilton, Valdez, Reyes and Dalbec. He's not close to the biggest offensive black hole. Additionally, when he's at shortstop, that means one more outfield bat is also in the lineup. he does not have a higher OPS than Hamilton, he has a lower OBP and a lower SLG
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 23:19:27 GMT -5
Also, my personal opinion but I've seen enough of Rafaela at shortstop to think he'll be elite there too. I'll give it 30 more games.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 24, 2024 23:22:09 GMT -5
Rafaela has a higher OPS than Hamilton, Valdez, Reyes and Dalbec. He's not close to the biggest offensive black hole. Additionally, when he's at shortstop, that means one more outfield bat is also in the lineup. he does not have a higher OPS than Hamilton, he has a lower OBP and a lower SLG Sorry, my bad, I had Hamilton between Rafaela and Valdez. I was looking at Hamilton's career stats.
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Post by itinerantherb on Apr 24, 2024 23:40:50 GMT -5
Best possible outcome this evening: The day before a bullpen game, they win big with a depth starter and two low leverage relievers.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,015
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 25, 2024 4:34:11 GMT -5
By the end of the year, Rafaela, not Story or Mayer will be thought of as the shortstop of the future. I very much doubt that ... for one thing, his ability to plat multiple positions could be of real value. I'm thinking Tony Phillips here.
Meanwhile ...
2.0 Brewers 1.8 Guardians 1.8 Orioles 1.5 Red Sox 1.3 Braves
That of course is bRef's SRS, run differential adjusted for schedule strength.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 25, 2024 5:55:14 GMT -5
By the end of the year, Rafaela, not Story or Mayer will be thought of as the shortstop of the future. No, Mayer will still be regarded as the SS of the future. Rafaela will return to being regarded as the CF of the future but will only truly be the CF when Mayer comes up to play SS at some point in the future as Rafaela will still be needed for SS as long as Story and his mounting history of injuries is penciled in to play SS.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 25, 2024 6:33:11 GMT -5
Saying Rafaela is the SS of the future is a bold take. I'm not convinced his best role isn't being a super utility guy who starts 100-120 games a year. I hope I am wrong and he is the full time CF of the future but that might depend on whether Roman Anthony can handle CF at the big league level.
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Post by foreverred9 on Apr 25, 2024 6:54:26 GMT -5
Fair, but Rafaela is the only one of those 5 projected to be a starter next year (and for the next 5 after that) so in my opinion that causing more scrutiny over his bat in general by folks. True that but we're also talking about SSS to start a career and projecting it to his future. Yes, but the issues being identified are exactly what people have been talking about for years, so there's more credibility behind the observations. Conversely, the defensive data (16th percentile OAA) doesn't align with history, so that certainly feels like a SSS. But to his credit, he's overcome adversity at every level along the way.
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Post by strike23 on Apr 25, 2024 7:01:55 GMT -5
By the end of the year, Rafaela, not Story or Mayer will be thought of as the shortstop of the future. I very much doubt that ... for one thing, his ability to plat multiple positions could be of real value. I'm thinking Tony Phillips here.
Meanwhile ...
2.0 Brewers 1.8 Guardians 1.8 Orioles 1.5 Red Sox 1.3 Braves
That of course is bRef's SRS, run differential adjusted for schedule strength.
I like this stat not only because it gives me hope for the Red Sox but because it also says the Yankees are overrated
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 25, 2024 7:13:46 GMT -5
True that but we're also tallook at his history more closely and you will see a hitter tht takes a while to adjust then all of a sudden, solid contct happens. I remember last year at Portlans his k/BB rates sucked as well as his contact numbers then somewhere in early May, the K/BB numbers remained about the same but the king about SSS to start a career and projecting it to his future. Yes, but the issues being identified are exactly what people have been talking about for years, so there's more credibility behind the observations. Conversely, the defensive data (16th percentile OAA) doesn't align with history, so that certainly feels like a SSS. But to his credit, he's overcome adversity at every level along the way. True but if you look at his history, he's a slow adjust to new levels. Last year at Portland his K/BB rates sucked as well as his contact numbers then all of a sudden in early May, his K/BB numbers remained about the same but line drives started happening and his OPS took a giant leap forward. Once he's adjusted, the quality of his contact also adjust.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
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Post by cdj on Apr 25, 2024 7:24:17 GMT -5
Rafaela strikes me as a guy who’ll start looking better as the weather warms up
His best game of the year last night imo
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