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5/13-5/16 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
art
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Post by art on May 15, 2024 21:53:30 GMT -5
MLB-wide BABIP is the lowest it’s been at any point in the 21st century - .288 Amazing that none of the recent years without shift restrictions beat this year. edit: unsaid implication is that run prevention is noticeably ahead of hitters league wide; see prior post about all of the hitting rate stats being the lowest they’ve been in decades That should really help attendance. Fast games with little hitting, lots of strike 3.
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Post by incandenza on May 15, 2024 23:28:39 GMT -5
Goddamnit that's like the fifth straight game Cora has left Houck in for one inning too many. What the hell.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on May 16, 2024 1:30:14 GMT -5
FYI re:Ted. My kid brother was hustling “bug juice” as a vendor on Ted’s last day. Too few fans in the stands to see the great one. My bro made little $$ that day but saw the game, understood it’s significance and still tells the tales. Lucky him. Except for having to lug that mostly full steel canister of koolAid on his back all day. Lol. Edit. Zarex, not KoolAid
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Post by strike23 on May 16, 2024 6:38:39 GMT -5
MLB-wide BABIP is the lowest it’s been at any point in the 21st century - .288 Amazing that none of the recent years without shift restrictions beat this year. edit: unsaid implication is that run prevention is noticeably ahead of hitters league wide; see prior post about all of the hitting rate stats being the lowest they’ve been in decades Could this be a side effect of teams re-prioritizing speed on the basepaths and fast guys then being able to cover more ground in the OF?
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Post by greenmonster on May 16, 2024 7:14:18 GMT -5
MLB-wide BABIP is the lowest it’s been at any point in the 21st century - .288 Amazing that none of the recent years without shift restrictions beat this year. edit: unsaid implication is that run prevention is noticeably ahead of hitters league wide; see prior post about all of the hitting rate stats being the lowest they’ve been in decades Could this be a side effect of teams re-prioritizing speed on the basepaths and fast guys then being able to cover more ground in the OF? Possibly, but it is also maybe inflated based on the lenient official scoring that we have seen. Plenty of balls being ruled hits that could easily be errors... League wide Manfred Mandate??
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art
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Post by art on May 16, 2024 7:41:52 GMT -5
Could this be a side effect of teams re-prioritizing speed on the basepaths and fast guys then being able to cover more ground in the OF? Possibly, but it is also maybe inflated based on the lenient official scoring that we have seen. Plenty of balls being ruled hits that could easily be errors... League wide Manfred Mandate?? Seems to me that lenient scoring would artificially increase BABIP rather than reducing it.
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Post by greenmonster on May 16, 2024 7:58:39 GMT -5
Possibly, but it is also maybe inflated based on the lenient official scoring that we have seen. Plenty of balls being ruled hits that could easily be errors... League wide Manfred Mandate?? Seems to me that lenient scoring would artificially increase BABIP rather than reducing it. Thats what I was trying to suggest
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Post by scottysmalls on May 16, 2024 8:56:33 GMT -5
Red Sox after last night are the least clutch team in baseball by more than half a win (and with two wins between them and the 28th place team). O'Neill and Abreu are the 9th and 10th least valuable players in the clutch in MLB (cumulatively), Rafaela is 26th.
Duran is their best player in the clutch rating 51st in MLB. Out of 19 players with 10 PAs on the year 13 of them have had negative value in clutch situations, including every current starter other than Duran.
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 16, 2024 9:21:37 GMT -5
Red Sox after last night are the least clutch team in baseball by more than half a win (and with two wins between them and the 28th place team). O'Neill and Abreu are the 9th and 10th least valuable players in the clutch in MLB (cumulatively), Rafaela is 26th. Duran is their best player in the clutch rating 51st in MLB. Out of 19 players with 10 PAs on the year 13 of them have had negative value in clutch situations, including every current starter other than Duran. Where is Devers? Seems like he's left a load of runners stranded this season
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on May 16, 2024 9:37:30 GMT -5
I don’t know that there’s a must-win game in mid-May, but winning tonight to salvage the series ahead of having to face the Rays again in that hellscape that is Tropicana Field next week would be very nice.
Amidst their struggles so far in May, the Red Sox are 7th in the AL and 2.5 games back in the Wild Card. Win tonight and then let’s have ourselves a Tyler O’Neill revenge series in St Louis
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Post by scottysmalls on May 16, 2024 10:13:07 GMT -5
Red Sox after last night are the least clutch team in baseball by more than half a win (and with two wins between them and the 28th place team). O'Neill and Abreu are the 9th and 10th least valuable players in the clutch in MLB (cumulatively), Rafaela is 26th. Duran is their best player in the clutch rating 51st in MLB. Out of 19 players with 10 PAs on the year 13 of them have had negative value in clutch situations, including every current starter other than Duran. Where is Devers? Seems like he's left a load of runners stranded this season Devers has also been bad in the clutch, costing the team about 0.5 wins vs. neutral clutch performance, though he's only 6th worst on the team as Wong and Casas have also been worse than him.
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Post by patford on May 16, 2024 10:30:23 GMT -5
Red Sox after last night are the least clutch team in baseball by more than half a win (and with two wins between them and the 28th place team). O'Neill and Abreu are the 9th and 10th least valuable players in the clutch in MLB (cumulatively), Rafaela is 26th. Duran is their best player in the clutch rating 51st in MLB. Out of 19 players with 10 PAs on the year 13 of them have had negative value in clutch situations, including every current starter other than Duran. Where is Devers? Seems like he's left a load of runners stranded this season At this point it's clear he is never going to be the superstar a lot of us envisioned after his 2019 season which at the time felt like the liftoff of a climb but is looking more and more like a career year. Good player to have. Not one of the best in MLB.
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Post by seamus on May 16, 2024 10:41:35 GMT -5
That's not clear to me. He's a 140+ wRC+ hitter with great batted ball metrics, xwOBA, etc. "Clutch" has never been shown to be a repeatable skill, so I'm not going to be upset when the is guy playing at about a 5 WAR pace through injuries.
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Post by jimmydugan on May 16, 2024 11:33:21 GMT -5
It’s worth mentioning that (according to baseball savant) he would have an extra 3 or 4 homers over the course of each full season that he’s played. I’m assuming he loses those homers because he’s a lefty playing at Fenway. His wRC+ probably undersells his hitting. That's not clear to me. He's a 140+ wRC+ hitter with great batted ball metrics, xwOBA, etc. "Clutch" has never been shown to be a repeatable skill, so I'm not going to be upset when the is guy playing at about a 5 WAR pace through injuries.
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Post by incandenza on May 16, 2024 11:50:42 GMT -5
That's not clear to me. He's a 140+ wRC+ hitter with great batted ball metrics, xwOBA, etc. "Clutch" has never been shown to be a repeatable skill, so I'm not going to be upset when the is guy playing at about a 5 WAR pace through injuries. Not to mention that he actually has a positive clutch rating for his career (+0.56), which is more than can be said of Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and David Ortiz, among others.
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Post by itinerantherb on May 16, 2024 12:22:03 GMT -5
That's not clear to me. He's a 140+ wRC+ hitter with great batted ball metrics, xwOBA, etc. "Clutch" has never been shown to be a repeatable skill, so I'm not going to be upset when the is guy playing at about a 5 WAR pace through injuries. Not to mention that he actually has a positive clutch rating for his career (+0.56), which is more than can be said of Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and David Ortiz, among others. If WPA isn't a "sticky" skill and if some of the greatest players of their generation have negative career clutch ratings, does it even have any utility as a prospective metric or is it just a means of quantifying what's already happened? Intuitively, it seems as though at this point in the season (or maybe over an entire season), a player wouldn't have had enough high-leverage PAs to get beyond small sample noise. Perhaps over time it could provide a clue about some flaw in approach (e.g., a player being over-eager in high leverage situations, or swinging for the fences), but won't it usually just be mostly a measure of luck, in the same way that very high or very low BABIPs are largely (though obviously not wholly) a measure of luck? I'd appreciate any insights from the more statistically savvy, as I've never known what WPA means, if anything, for the evaluation of a player going forward.
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Post by scottysmalls on May 16, 2024 12:26:11 GMT -5
That's not clear to me. He's a 140+ wRC+ hitter with great batted ball metrics, xwOBA, etc. "Clutch" has never been shown to be a repeatable skill, so I'm not going to be upset when the is guy playing at about a 5 WAR pace through injuries. Yeah Devers is the guy I am least worried about by a lot. I do think for some players they have consistently poor performance in high leverage (maybe due to a lesser ability to hit higher quality pitching?), but he isn't one of them. His performance was leverage neutral in 2023 and 2022, and he was actually better in higher leverage spots than lower leverage in 2021 and 2020.
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Post by scottysmalls on May 16, 2024 12:29:06 GMT -5
Not to mention that he actually has a positive clutch rating for his career (+0.56), which is more than can be said of Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and David Ortiz, among others. If WPA isn't a "sticky" skill and if some of the greatest players of their generation have negative career clutch ratings, does it even have any utility as a prospective metric or is it just a means of quantifying what's already happened? Intuitively, it seems as though at this point in the season (or maybe over an entire season), a player wouldn't have had enough high-leverage PAs to get beyond small sample noise. Perhaps over time it could provide a clue about some flaw in approach (e.g., a player being over-eager in high leverage situations, or swinging for the fences), but won't it usually just be mostly a measure of luck, in the same way that very high or very low BABIPs are largely (though obviously not wholly) a measure of luck? I'd appreciate any insights from the more statistically savvy, as I've never known what WPA means, if anything, for the evaluation of a player going forward. I think, generally, WPA and Clutch are really only useful and quantifying the past, not projecting forward. There are some guys who seem to do consistently better or worse based on leverage than their underlying/overall offensive performance would suggest, but generally speaking I wouldn't use it as forward looking. Which should be a positive for the Red Sox, it seems likely they will regress, as a team, to the mean this year in that regard (though there are historical examples of teams who have been this bad in the clutch for a full season).
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Post by incandenza on May 16, 2024 12:29:23 GMT -5
Not to mention that he actually has a positive clutch rating for his career (+0.56), which is more than can be said of Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and David Ortiz, among others. If WPA isn't a "sticky" skill and if some of the greatest players of their generation have negative career clutch ratings, does it even have any utility as a prospective metric or is it just a means of quantifying what's already happened? Intuitively, it seems as though at this point in the season (or maybe over an entire season), a player wouldn't have had enough high-leverage PAs to get beyond small sample noise. Perhaps over time it could provide a clue about some flaw in approach (e.g., a player being over-eager in high leverage situations, or swinging for the fences), but won't it usually just be mostly a measure of luck, in the same way that very high or very low BABIPs are largely (though obviously not wholly) a measure of luck? I'd appreciate any insights from the more statistically savvy, as I've never known what WPA means, if anything, for the evaluation of a player going forward. I can't prove this, but it feels to me like it's mostly luck for most players. But there might be exceptions. E.g., you might think that a hitter who does relatively well against better pitching (which certainly sounds like Devers) might tend to have higher clutch scores, since a lot of those situations would involve facing tough relievers who are coming in specifically to face them and such hitters would do relatively well against those relievers.
On the other hand, Trout's career clutch score (-8.56) is so bad that I wonder if it's more than luck.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on May 16, 2024 13:31:37 GMT -5
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Post by maxwellsdemon on May 16, 2024 13:40:19 GMT -5
Nice cost free trade deadline pickup.
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Post by rhswanzey on May 16, 2024 14:56:32 GMT -5
Nice cost free trade deadline pickup. ”Nobody’s getting a better trade deadline pickup than Chris Sale”
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cdj
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Posts: 15,675
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Post by cdj on May 16, 2024 16:34:52 GMT -5
Duran Abreu Refsnyder Devers Smith 1B Cooper DH McGuire Grissom Rafaela SS
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Post by greenmonster on May 16, 2024 17:07:36 GMT -5
Nice cost free trade deadline pickup. ”Nobody’s getting a better trade deadline pickup than Chris Sale” Deja Vu all over again
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Post by julyanmorley on May 16, 2024 17:07:50 GMT -5
Free Romy
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