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5/17-5/19 Red Sox @ Cardinals Series Thread
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Post by ematz1423 on May 18, 2024 4:50:21 GMT -5
The 2024 season may be coming to a cross road. Now under .500 and not playing very good ball recently. Pitching is coming down to earth a little bit which had to be expected. They need at least a couple of their underperforming position players to step up or things may get away from them very quickly over the next month month in a half. The next stretch will determine if they are buyers or sellers come deadline time.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 18, 2024 8:22:22 GMT -5
The 2024 season may be coming to a cross road. Now under .500 and not playing very good ball recently. Pitching is coming down to earth a little bit which had to be expected. They need at least a couple of their underperforming position players to step up or things may get away from them very quickly over the next month month in a half. The next stretch will determine if they are buyers or sellers come deadline time. They've barely played the east and so far the early returns arent encouraging. I dont see them beating up the Yankees like they did last year and even with Toronto's issues I'm not sure they knock them around like they did last year. I figured they're a 75 win team. I might wind up being right for the wrong reasons. I still think the hitting will get better at some point but not enough as the pitching returns to earth. Honestly I don't find this team a y more compelling than the last couple of teams they've put on the field. It appears that it's going to be another summer of being irrelevant. It's tough seeing them be so relentlessly mediocre after having seen them really matter for the better part of the two previous decades.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 18, 2024 8:35:57 GMT -5
The 2024 season may be coming to a cross road. Now under .500 and not playing very good ball recently. Pitching is coming down to earth a little bit which had to be expected. They need at least a couple of their underperforming position players to step up or things may get away from them very quickly over the next month month in a half. The next stretch will determine if they are buyers or sellers come deadline time. They've barely played the east and so far the early returns arent encouraging. I dont see them beating up the Yankees like they did last year and even with Toronto's issues I'm not sure they knock them around like they did last year. I figured they're a 75 win team. I might wind up being right for the wrong reasons. I still think the hitting will get better at some point but not enough as the pitching returns to earth. Honestly I don't find this team a y more compelling than the last couple of teams they've put on the field. It appears that it's going to be another summer of being irrelevant. It's tough seeing them be so relentlessly mediocre after having seen them really matter for the better part of the two previous decades. I'm afraid that I tend to agree with you, it's hard for me to envision this team making a run but who knows maybe the pitching stays in the upper tier and Casas comes back by July to give the offense a jolt.
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Post by pappyman99 on May 18, 2024 8:37:23 GMT -5
I’ll get hate (again) but if we have the same winning % in 6 weeks I’m selling Jansen, Pivetta, Martin, O’Neil and also some guys in the minors that are in the 40 man peripheral but actually do have some value
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on May 18, 2024 8:38:28 GMT -5
The 2024 season may be coming to a cross road. Now under .500 and not playing very good ball recently. Pitching is coming down to earth a little bit which had to be expected. They need at least a couple of their underperforming position players to step up or things may get away from them very quickly over the next month month in a half. The next stretch will determine if they are buyers or sellers come deadline time. I just hope they pick a direction one way or another. Like between their bad injury luck and issues getting basic competency from the bottom half of their position players, even if they actually ARE in it by end of July if you hedge and don’t make a move to get better it feels like this is going to end the same way as the last two years. Try to win or sell - please no half-measures
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 18, 2024 8:53:32 GMT -5
The 2024 season may be coming to a cross road. Now under .500 and not playing very good ball recently. Pitching is coming down to earth a little bit which had to be expected. They need at least a couple of their underperforming position players to step up or things may get away from them very quickly over the next month month in a half. The next stretch will determine if they are buyers or sellers come deadline time. I just hope they pick a direction one way or another. Like between their bad injury luck and issues getting basic competency from the bottom half of their position players, even if they actually ARE in it by end of July if you hedge and don’t make a move to get better it feels like this is going to end the same way as the last two years. Try to win or sell - please no half-measures I dont think Breslow will do half measures. I think he will be decisive. He kind of has to be. That's a part of what cost Bloom his job, the deadline half measures. The way this looks to me right now is that this will end up being a sell deadline, which will probably be the right way to go, but a bummer because it'll mark 3 straight seasons of a summer without meaningful baseball and 5 out of 6 seasons of also ran status, which is a long time for a team that is supposed to have the cache the Sox franchise should have.
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Post by incandenza on May 18, 2024 8:57:29 GMT -5
Big fan of half measures here: if they're on the fringe of contention (like 40% playoff odds) then I think it makes sense to take a mixed approach - be opportunistic about adding to make the team better but also be opportunistic about selling off assets if someone is willing to overpay for them. This approach worked out incredibly well in 2022 (except for the part where the team stunk down the stretch).
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 18, 2024 9:04:51 GMT -5
Big fan of half measures here: if they're on the fringe of contention (like 40% playoff odds) then I think it makes sense to take a mixed approach - be opportunistic about adding to make the team better but also be opportunistic about selling off assets if someone is willing to overpay for them. This approach worked out incredibly well in 2022 (except for the part where the team stunk down the stretch). No thanks. Have seen that movie too many times. Pick a direction and go with it, even if it's down so they can get better in the future. This being in the middle of the pack approach has gotten them absolutely nowhere over an extended time. Breslow has to not play the odds game but rather make a real decisive judgment on his team and act accordingly.
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Post by pappyman99 on May 18, 2024 9:06:59 GMT -5
I just hope they pick a direction one way or another. Like between their bad injury luck and issues getting basic competency from the bottom half of their position players, even if they actually ARE in it by end of July if you hedge and don’t make a move to get better it feels like this is going to end the same way as the last two years. Try to win or sell - please no half-measures I dont think Brealow will do half measures. I think he will be decisive. He kind of has to be. That's a part of what cost Bloom his job, the deadline half measures. The way this looks to me right now is that this will end up being a sell deadline, which will probably be the right way to go, but a bummer because it'll mark 3 straight seasons of a summer without meaningful baseball and 5 out of 6 seasons of also ran status, which is a long time for a team that is supposed to have the cache the Sox franchise should have. It’s the game thread so I’ll leave it at this since in the coming month or so this convo will definitely be part of a greater thread But we are not in the same class as the Yankees / Orioles this year. But in general this year (so far) gives a a lot of promise for the future. But I get the sense there is a lot of roster (Not Construction) but reconstruction that has to happen. For the following questions. 1. What are we doing with the trio of Story, Grissom, and Mayer? I think it’s best to move Story to LF. 2. Story gets moved to LF… who out of Duran/Rafaela/Abreu is staying? You can’t have any of those guys not getting regular at bats 3. What do we do with Yoshida, who provides almost no value as a DH and is brutal (and blocked) in the outfield? 4. Where do we get some right handed productive bats and where to we put them? Luckily some of these things will be good problems to have and honestly, the rotation and bullpen is in strong shape even if Pivetta is traded or leaves via FA
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Post by briam on May 18, 2024 9:40:30 GMT -5
Big fan of half measures here: if they're on the fringe of contention (like 40% playoff odds) then I think it makes sense to take a mixed approach - be opportunistic about adding to make the team better but also be opportunistic about selling off assets if someone is willing to overpay for them. This approach worked out incredibly well in 2022 (except for the part where the team stunk down the stretch). No thanks. Have seen that movie too many times. Pick a direction and go with it, even if it's down so they can get better in the future. This being in the middle of the pack approach has gotten them absolutely nowhere over an extended time. Breslow has to not play the odds game but rather make a real decisive judgment on his team and act accordingly. Agree here, if you keep trying to play the middle than you end of with an average roster which is where they’re at now. They’ve missed way too many opportunities to capitalize on players and assets and lost them for next to nothing (with a sprinkle of being over the LTT to make it twice as painful).
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rhswanzey
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Post by rhswanzey on May 18, 2024 9:40:37 GMT -5
I’ll get hate (again) but if we have the same winning % in 6 weeks I’m selling Jansen, Pivetta, Martin, O’Neil and also some guys in the minors that are in the 40 man peripheral but actually do have some value I’m not ready to give up on a run at grabbing the second or third wild card spot, although I’m not bullish on it.. I think if they do clearly fall out of it headed into July, they’d be wise to at least give a contending team the opportunity to get really stupid for Houck or Crawford.
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Post by scottysmalls on May 18, 2024 9:49:29 GMT -5
Feels too early for the “what happens if they’re .500 at the trade deadline again” conversation. Lots of weird stuff going on with the team in many different ways, let’s see what plays out
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 18, 2024 9:58:23 GMT -5
I’ll get hate (again) but if we have the same winning % in 6 weeks I’m selling Jansen, Pivetta, Martin, O’Neil and also some guys in the minors that are in the 40 man peripheral but actually do have some value I’m not ready to give up on a run at grabbing the second or third wild card spot, although I’m not bullish on it.. I think if they do clearly fall out of it headed into July, they’d be wise to at least give a contending team the opportunity to get really stupid for Houck or Crawford. Yeah, if you are selling out this year, might as well sell the future too, start from scratch.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 18, 2024 10:07:18 GMT -5
The 2024 season may be coming to a cross road. Now under .500 and not playing very good ball recently. Pitching is coming down to earth a little bit which had to be expected. They need at least a couple of their underperforming position players to step up or things may get away from them very quickly over the next month month in a half. The next stretch will determine if they are buyers or sellers come deadline time. Fangraphs playoff odds down to 17%
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Post by manfred on May 18, 2024 10:31:20 GMT -5
This year is a bit tough to judge because they’ve lost Casas, Story, O’Neill, Grissom, Whitlock, and Pivetta for long stretches. So I think it is best to look at the positives (pitching, Duran, maybe Rafaela developing) and ask if that is not more important than larger outcomes (given the bad injury luck).
If the playoffs look unlikely, I’m all for dealing bullpen guys likr Jansen and Martin. But other than that, I don’t know who you deal. Maaayyybee O’Neill.
Touch Duran at grave risk to your digits.
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rhswanzey
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Post by rhswanzey on May 18, 2024 10:36:05 GMT -5
I’m not ready to give up on a run at grabbing the second or third wild card spot, although I’m not bullish on it.. I think if they do clearly fall out of it headed into July, they’d be wise to at least give a contending team the opportunity to get really stupid for Houck or Crawford. Yeah, if you are selling out this year, might as well sell the future too, start from scratch. I’m thinking Cole Ragans for half a season of Aroldis Chapman, but applied to SP with more cost control than Dylan Cease had when he was traded. Otherwise, it’s not worth doing, because if you’re not getting a team into stupid territory, it’s probably not going to be more than you could get for one of them in, say, summer 2025 or winter 2025.
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Post by incandenza on May 18, 2024 10:45:58 GMT -5
This year is a bit tough to judge because they’ve lost Casas, Story, O’Neill, Grissom, Whitlock, and Pivetta for long stretches. So I think it is best to look at the positives (pitching, Duran, maybe Rafaela developing) and ask if that is not more important than larger outcomes (given the bad injury luck). If the playoffs look unlikely, I’m all for dealing bullpen guys likr Jansen and Martin. But other than that, I don’t know who you deal. Maaayyybee O’Neill. Touch Duran at grave risk to your digits. Why would you not trade O'Neill and Pivetta?
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gerry
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Post by gerry on May 18, 2024 11:11:47 GMT -5
Manfred. Amen. They held their own in a month + without, or without effective play from, an injured starting 1b, 2b, 3b, SS, LF, OF, DH, 4 of 6 SP and several RP. They are expected to be in 1st place? At the same time Duran, Abreu, Wong, Casas, Ref, maybe Cedanne (who was supposed to be in AAA), Criswell and others emerged; as has pitching in general; and top prospects are near ready. This is as frustrating as it has ever been but also as hopeful. There will soon be desirable problems like overcrowded positions. Sure, pick up a star if possible by trading away depth, but iMO the problem isn’t talent, it’s more than 16 injuries and issues to that talent. Some of them weird like O’Neil’s Concussion, Grissom’s debilitating flu just as he finished rehab, Casas’ cartilege, Masa’s enlarged hand, Giolito’s ST, Whitlock’s recent deja vu. Frustrating loss of real talent just as other real talent emerges.
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Post by manfred on May 18, 2024 12:20:24 GMT -5
This year is a bit tough to judge because they’ve lost Casas, Story, O’Neill, Grissom, Whitlock, and Pivetta for long stretches. So I think it is best to look at the positives (pitching, Duran, maybe Rafaela developing) and ask if that is not more important than larger outcomes (given the bad injury luck). If the playoffs look unlikely, I’m all for dealing bullpen guys likr Jansen and Martin. But other than that, I don’t know who you deal. Maaayyybee O’Neill. Touch Duran at grave risk to your digits. Why would you not trade O'Neill and Pivetta? Might. I’d first try to sign Pivetta, probably. But , yeah, otherwise might be most valuable asset.
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Post by bosoxnation on May 18, 2024 13:12:51 GMT -5
Duran is 4th in all of MLB in WAR! He's been my favorite player to watch I'm sure we will trade him right? We aren't allowed to have nice things.
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 18, 2024 13:50:42 GMT -5
I think it's easier to identify the core - who to keep and build around from the current active roster,including a few key currently injured. For me,that would be Casas,Devers, Wong,Rafaela,Duran and Abreu for position players,and Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford and Slaten for pitchers. That's 11 out of the active roster. I'd listen to offers for all others.
It's ruthless, but to me, realistic.
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Post by carmenfanzone on May 18, 2024 14:33:08 GMT -5
This year is a bit tough to judge because they’ve lost Casas, Story, O’Neill, Grissom, Whitlock, and Pivetta for long stretches. So I think it is best to look at the positives (pitching, Duran, maybe Rafaela developing) and ask if that is not more important than larger outcomes (given the bad injury luck). If the playoffs look unlikely, I’m all for dealing bullpen guys likr Jansen and Martin. But other than that, I don’t know who you deal. Maaayyybee O’Neill. Touch Duran at grave risk to your digits. Why would you not trade O'Neill and Pivetta? Maybe because they might be able to help us next year. Or the year after. Neither are that old. Another poster says we need to find some good right handed bats. O'Neil is a right handed bat who has had some success in the past and earlier this year. Pivetta is a decent starter. I would try and resign both. At some point, you have to stop selling assets that can be part of your future or else your future will never get here.. If you think Jansen and Martin are too old to help next year, I have no problem in trading them. But I want them to keep all the players that can help us next year and add to them.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 18, 2024 14:53:12 GMT -5
Why would you not trade O'Neill and Pivetta? Maybe because they might be able to help us next year. Or the year after. Neither are that old. Another poster says we need to find some good right handed bats. O'Neil is a right handed bat who has had some success in the past and earlier this year. Pivetta is a decent starter. I would try and resign both. At some point, you have to stop selling assets that can be part of your future or else your future will never get here.. If you think Jansen and Martin are too old to help next year, I have no problem in trading them. But I want them to keep all the players that can help us next year and add to them. Theyre FAs after this season for them to be assets in future years at this point it would take market value offers for them. I'm not saying I wouldn't want to pay them but it also makes sense to trade them if they're not making a playoff run too.
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Post by greenmonster on May 18, 2024 15:07:59 GMT -5
Maybe because they might be able to help us next year. Or the year after. Neither are that old. Another poster says we need to find some good right handed bats. O'Neil is a right handed bat who has had some success in the past and earlier this year. Pivetta is a decent starter. I would try and resign both. At some point, you have to stop selling assets that can be part of your future or else your future will never get here.. If you think Jansen and Martin are too old to help next year, I have no problem in trading them. But I want them to keep all the players that can help us next year and add to them. Theyre FAs after this season for them to be assets in future years at this point it would take market value offers for them. I'm not saying I wouldn't want to pay them but it also makes sense to trade them if they're not making a playoff run too. If you listened to some of TON's comments on the "310 to Left" podcast it doesn't sound like he would be difficult to sign.
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Post by incandenza on May 18, 2024 15:14:00 GMT -5
Why would you not trade O'Neill and Pivetta? Maybe because they might be able to help us next year. Or the year after. Neither are that old. Another poster says we need to find some good right handed bats. O'Neil is a right handed bat who has had some success in the past and earlier this year. Pivetta is a decent starter. I would try and resign both. At some point, you have to stop selling assets that can be part of your future or else your future will never get here.. If you think Jansen and Martin are too old to help next year, I have no problem in trading them. But I want them to keep all the players that can help us next year and add to them. Aside from the point that they're free agents, I don't really see Pivetta as anyone you'd desperately need to lock up. The Red Sox will be able to spend on Burnes or Fried if they want to. Or if Henry's still being a skinflint they can shell out for whichever mid-tier starter Breslow/Bailey think they can work the most wonders with, which may or may not be Pivetta himself.
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