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Post by nonothing on Jul 6, 2024 1:02:24 GMT -5
Being a this is a prospect site, I'm guessing this won't be popular but... I'm a proponent of trading Mayer plus (no close to MLB pitching) for Garrett Crochet plus (systems balancing). Adding a quality arm would also make a Jansen trade more palatable. Not entirely against Mayer for Crochet conceptually, but when you bring in Crochet's injury history and the fact that he should be shut down by playoffs to protect his arm long term, it becomes a false hope. The probability that Crochet would break if used through rest of season + playoffs (which is why you would trade for him) is too high to make trading for Crochet make sense to me full stop. So trading a player with potential as high as Mayer's to get the above doesn't make sense. In a world where you could have maybe traded Mayer for a healthy Luzardo, it would have at least required more thought. But I don't see a healthy pitcher in the likely to be traded bucket worth Mayer when you factor in pitcher innings limits that should be imposed due to arm health reasons. Maybe somebody is available that doesn't appear obvious though? To me, the other problem is... in reality, we don't appear to have a natural heir apparent at SS with high probability of becoming an MLB player other than Mayer. So again... the concept isn't outrageous to me, but the reality of the system behind him means you would open a glaring hole down to at least Coffey, if not down to Arias? Mayer is simply hard to deal because of a lack of true defensively capable MLB SS behind, not because he is just too valuable to trade in a vacuum. And I don't see them moving Jansen unless they fall apart before the deadline. He is the leader of that bullpen.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 6, 2024 2:11:29 GMT -5
Being a this is a prospect site, I'm guessing this won't be popular but... I'm a proponent of trading Mayer plus (no close to MLB pitching) for Garrett Crochet plus (systems balancing). Adding a quality arm would also make a Jansen trade more palatable. Not entirely against Mayer for Crochet conceptually, but when you bring in Crochet's injury history and the fact that he should be shut down by playoffs to protect his arm long term, it becomes a false hope. The probability that Crochet would break if used through rest of season + playoffs (which is why you would trade for him) is too high to make trading for Crochet make sense to me full stop. So trading a player with potential as high as Mayer's to get the above doesn't make sense. In a world where you could have maybe traded Mayer for a healthy Luzardo, it would have at least required more thought. But I don't see a healthy pitcher in the likely to be traded bucket worth Mayer when you factor in pitcher innings limits that should be imposed due to arm health reasons. Maybe somebody is available that doesn't appear obvious though? To me, the other problem is... in reality, we don't appear to have a natural heir apparent at SS with high probability of becoming an MLB player other than Mayer. So again... the concept isn't outrageous to me, but the reality of the system behind him means you would open a glaring hole down to at least Coffey, if not down to Arias? Mayer is simply hard to deal because of a lack of true defensively capable MLB SS behind, not because he is just too valuable to trade in a vacuum. And I don't see them moving Jansen unless they fall apart before the deadline. He is the leader of that bullpen. Thinking longer term. We get nothing for Jansen if we hold him. Crochet isn't a free agent until 2027 and we'll have Rafaela, Hamilton and Story as well as Gioloto and Hendriks. Crotchet is an excellent fit. ADD: Martin won't be expensive on a year to year basis and we're likely to QO Pivetta and O'Neil.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jul 6, 2024 2:59:24 GMT -5
The Sox won (again) with their starting 1B, 2B, SS, 2SP and their setup RP on the IL. And their DH, RF, LF still stabilizing after IL stints. No need to hear any whining from the NYFY.
Don’t mess with that awesome OF. Please don’t mess with this OF. Or the rookies in general. The hustle of Abreu, Gonzales, Hamilton, Rafaella added to those of Duran, ONeill, Ref and Wong has become truly intimidating. They are winning the unwinnable with barrages of singles, doubles, triples; and well deserved BB. Their defense keeps improving and their HRs are added to those of Devers and Casas. It’s a good team. And getting better with the welcome return of Macho Man along with the hopefully imminent recoveries of Casas, Grissom, Hendricks, Martin, Mata.
Do we need another big bat and more HR? Maybe. Not many holes to fill, but as long as the development of this surprising team isn’t messed with it’s a good idea.
Do we need another really good pitcher or two? Probably, mostly to ease the innings burdens of the current staff, secure extra wins and be strong for the postseason. We have surplus to trade, players who would appreciate a better chance of playing in the show. It’s time to be a wise shopper. I will be shocked if Breslow doesn’t buy or shops unwisely.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 6, 2024 4:34:38 GMT -5
No thank you to dealing Mayer for crochet.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 6, 2024 6:42:25 GMT -5
No thank you to dealing Mayer for crochet. Yeah he’d thrown 85 innings over 4 years before this season, major pass. Not trading top 25 prospects for pitchers who can’t stay on the field Honestly I’m not trading top 25 prospects for any pitcher outside of like Skenes
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jul 6, 2024 6:46:21 GMT -5
Thinking longer term. We get nothing for Jansen if we hold him. Crochet isn't a free agent until 2027 and we'll have Rafaela, Hamilton and Story as well as Gioloto and Hendriks. Crotchet is an excellent fit. ADD: Martin won't be expensive on a year to year basis and we're likely to QO Pivetta and O'Neil. The opportunity cost of moving Kenley is not having one of the most consistently reliable relievers in the last decade+ pitching for you if you make the playoffs. As of now they are three games ahead of the Royals and Astros in the loss column for the 3rd Wild Card, a half game behind the Twins for the 2nd, and even the Yankees are within reach for the 1st - it’s okay to think about what you might actually do in the playoffs if you get there! The main alternatives to Kenley closing include: -a 38 year old currently on the IL for elbow soreness and who (through absolutely no fault of his own) missed several weeks due to anxiety (Martin) -a former lockdown closer who is still in Tommy John rehab and has literally not thrown a breaking ball since last June (Hendriks) -a Rule 5 rookie (Slaten)
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Post by puzzler on Jul 6, 2024 7:10:19 GMT -5
Zero chance they are making Teel a primary backup when he's a rookie and hasn't caught any pitchers on the team all year. Heinemann would be brought up if there's an injury. You’d rather have McGuire who has been playing abysmally for almost 2 months? Without a doubt. I'm not putting more weight on the last two months than the previous year plus.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jul 6, 2024 7:42:48 GMT -5
No thank you to dealing Mayer for crochet. Yeah he’d thrown 85 innings over 4 years before this season, major pass. Not trading top 25 prospects for pitchers who can’t stay on the field Honestly I’m not trading top 25 prospects for any pitcher outside of like Skenes The small number of innings on Crochet's arm is actually a reason why I think he would be a good target. He's still got a lot of bullets left in him. I wouldn't trade Mayer though. SS just too hard to come by.
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Post by jdb on Jul 6, 2024 8:17:47 GMT -5
Looking at the White Sox farm they have a top SS and C prospect so I’d assume Anthony would be the guy they would target. I’m not going down that road.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 6, 2024 8:24:32 GMT -5
Looking at the White Sox farm they have a top SS and C prospect so I’d assume Anthony would be the guy they would target. I’m not going down that road. How are they fixed for 2b? The Sox have a ton of those. I'd make Yorke and Bleis available, but I dont think the Sox have the pitcher needed to make a deal like that work. Dont think Fitts or Sandlin would be enough.
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Post by strike23 on Jul 6, 2024 8:51:11 GMT -5
There's always a risk of injury, especially with pitchers but people are also acting like its a sure thing while also acting like our top ~7 prospects are sure stars and have zero bust risk let alone "only" becoming an MLB regular, platoon bat, or bench piece. If one of the 4-7 guys plus a few smaller peices gets Crochet I'd want them to pull the trigger otherwise aim lower at a true rental for cheaper.
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Post by patford on Jul 6, 2024 9:00:55 GMT -5
The type of prospect I'd hate to see the Sox trade are young with a high ceiling. That list would include: Anthony Mayer Teel Bleis Campbell Perales Cespedes Zanetello Yorke Arias Rodriguez Johanfran Garcia and Jhostynxon Garcia Jordan Portes
If they can acquire a useful piece for Fitts Meidroth Kavadas Hickey Sogard Lugo Dobbins Penrod Early Mullins Paulino
Then sure. Just really not into the idea of selling low on prospects whose future value is unknown and in some cases severely depressed (thinking Zanatello, Bleis even Mata and Gonzalez).
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Post by puzzler on Jul 6, 2024 9:09:57 GMT -5
There's always a risk of injury, especially with pitchers but people are also acting like its a sure thing while also acting like our top ~7 prospects are sure stars and have zero bust risk let alone "only" becoming an MLB regular, platoon bat, or bench piece. If one of the 4-7 guys plus a few smaller peices gets Crochet I'd want them to pull the trigger otherwise aim lower at a true rental for cheaper. More striking to me than thinking prospects are sure stars is the absolute certainty that many people have, is that Crochet is one. And seemingly only because he was available. I didn't see a whole lot of people clamoring to trade Mayer for Burnes, but that makes more sense than trading for Crochet at all.
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Post by patford on Jul 6, 2024 9:18:36 GMT -5
There's always a risk of injury, especially with pitchers but people are also acting like its a sure thing while also acting like our top ~7 prospects are sure stars and have zero bust risk let alone "only" becoming an MLB regular, platoon bat, or bench piece. If one of the 4-7 guys plus a few smaller peices gets Crochet I'd want them to pull the trigger otherwise aim lower at a true rental for cheaper. It's been reported there have been 15 teams asking about Crochet. Eovaldi could probably be had for considerably less as he would be a rental. However consider when the Rangers acquired Montgomery it took two fringe top 100 prospects so something similar for the Sox would be Cespedes and Campbell.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jul 6, 2024 9:27:20 GMT -5
There's always a risk of injury, especially with pitchers but people are also acting like its a sure thing while also acting like our top ~7 prospects are sure stars and have zero bust risk let alone "only" becoming an MLB regular, platoon bat, or bench piece. If one of the 4-7 guys plus a few smaller peices gets Crochet I'd want them to pull the trigger otherwise aim lower at a true rental for cheaper. More striking to me than thinking prospects are sure stars is the absolute certainty that many people have, is that Crochet is one. And seemingly only because he was available. I didn't see a whole lot of people clamoring to trade Mayer for Burnes, but that makes more sense than trading for Crochet at all. Burnes is 5 years older than Crochet and about to hit free agency. All things being equal you should try to get players before they are good, not after.
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Post by patford on Jul 6, 2024 10:35:03 GMT -5
More striking to me than thinking prospects are sure stars is the absolute certainty that many people have, is that Crochet is one. And seemingly only because he was available. I didn't see a whole lot of people clamoring to trade Mayer for Burnes, but that makes more sense than trading for Crochet at all. I would like a Burnes trade, but I'm guessing he's somewhere between 100% and 1,000% unavailable. Zac Gallen continues to be the big name guy that I'd like to see the most, though he might not be much more available than Burnes. Mayer is also the only prospect on my personal "can't trade" list so I'd prefer they keep him. Edit: I also don't want a Crochet trade, too much uncertainty and too much competition imo. The Orioles are in first place and Burnes is their best pitcher and there is a thought they will trade him? Further the Orioles best position player is their SS Gunnar Henderson who is 23 years old and has 27 HR.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jul 6, 2024 10:53:01 GMT -5
Trade for Nate, sign fried in the offseason if we want another high end starter long term
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jul 6, 2024 10:54:37 GMT -5
Pretty sure puzzler meant in the offseason. Really interesting that Burnes is the one being called out. Here are how Burnes and Crochet compare to each other through age 25: And if you only look at their stats as starters: If you aren't willing to trade for Crochet now it seems like you wouldn't have been willing to trade for Burnes at 25 either.
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Post by puzzler on Jul 6, 2024 11:15:49 GMT -5
Pretty sure puzzler meant in the offseason. Really interesting that Burnes is the one being called out. Here are how Burnes and Crochet compare to each other through age 25: And if you only look at their stats as starters: If you aren't willing to trade for Crochet now it seems like you wouldn't have been willing to trade for Burnes at 25 either. I would not have been willing to trade Mayer for Burnes at 25 period, but then if he was available, I wouldn't have had to.
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Post by puzzler on Jul 6, 2024 11:19:37 GMT -5
I would like a Burnes trade, but I'm guessing he's somewhere between 100% and 1,000% unavailable. Zac Gallen continues to be the big name guy that I'd like to see the most, though he might not be much more available than Burnes. Mayer is also the only prospect on my personal "can't trade" list so I'd prefer they keep him. Edit: I also don't want a Crochet trade, too much uncertainty and too much competition imo. The Orioles are in first place and Burnes is their best pitcher and there is a thought they will trade him? Further the Orioles best position player is their SS Gunnar Henderson who is 23 years old and has 27 HR. Burnes was available months ago.
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Post by puzzler on Jul 6, 2024 11:28:58 GMT -5
More striking to me than thinking prospects are sure stars is the absolute certainty that many people have, is that Crochet is one. And seemingly only because he was available. I didn't see a whole lot of people clamoring to trade Mayer for Burnes, but that makes more sense than trading for Crochet at all. Burnes is 5 years older than Crochet and about to hit free agency. All things being equal you should try to get players before they are good, not after. That point is taken. But since this is a deadline deal, you're paying a premium in prospect cost which creates more risk. You hope the youth provides you value, but then again you don't really know how good he is. I'd much rather go for a rental at a much lower prospect cost.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 6, 2024 11:50:19 GMT -5
Zac Eflin. Rays most certainly move him. Either now or offseason. Its more than a rental. Its just if the sox and rays want to make a deal
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 6, 2024 12:40:57 GMT -5
The thing with crochet is that I have a hard time with the idea of giving up an ace type package for him when he's literally only started 18 games. Sure he looks the part but that's hardly enough track record for me to trust it just yet.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jul 6, 2024 12:55:47 GMT -5
Pretty sure puzzler meant in the offseason. Really interesting that Burnes is the one being called out. Here are how Burnes and Crochet compare to each other through age 25: And if you only look at their stats as starters: If you aren't willing to trade for Crochet now it seems like you wouldn't have been willing to trade for Burnes at 25 either. The thing with Crochet is that over the previous five years, including his last year in college, the most innings he's pitched in a season is 54.1. The second highest is 12.2 innings. There's just no track record and for what he's going to cost I'd personally want to explore more established options. I'm kind of playing devil's advocate here, I don't think Breslow should blow up the farm for Crochet. But I don't get this complaint. Crochet not having a lot of miles on his arm is a good thing to me. I don't know why it's preferable to have a guy that has thrown ~1k innings.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 6, 2024 13:00:14 GMT -5
The low mileage on the arm is maybe a good thing for crochet. However he has had a TJ surgery and we have no idea if he can handle a SP workload over years. I am very interested in him and he may be worth the gamble but I'm not dealing any of the top 3 for him. If he can be had for a package with Campbell as the headliner I'd probably pull the trigger depending on who else is included though.
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