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badfishnbc
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Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
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Post by badfishnbc on Jun 4, 2024 8:01:19 GMT -5
Passan on ESPN+ has a way-too-early assessment of buyers and sellers, along with who might be available. He's got the Sox listed as a "hinge team," with Pivetta among those who could move. What strikes me as fascinating is the number of young pitchers leaguewide who he says could be moved - namely Crochet, Luzardo and the slim possibility of Mason Miller. If pitching is the goal for the Breslow administration, a lateral strike for the future might be in play - not quite the move to push you into contention this year but rather to prime the pump for a young guns run over the next few seasons. |
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 4, 2024 8:21:18 GMT -5
You can add Jensen, Martin and TON to the list. Even though we’ll be sellers. I’d still like to get Luzardo if he’s healthy. Could really use a lefty against that Orioles lineup.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 4, 2024 8:29:00 GMT -5
Crochet would be an awesome acquisition
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 4, 2024 8:31:46 GMT -5
You can add Jensen, Martin and TON to the list. Even though we’ll be sellers. I’d still like to get Luzardo if he’s healthy. Could really use a lefty against that Orioles lineup. I don't understand how some on here seem to state this as a fact at this juncture of the season. They're 3.5 GB for 3rd WC so I guess I would lean that way at this point but literally one or two good weeks of ball and they could easily make up that 3.5 games. There is still basically two months until the deadline. A lot can happen in that time frame. That being said, while yes Luzardo and Crochet have two arb years remaining after this year so they would make sense even for a fringe contender to trade for I don't really want to see the Sox get into a trade deadline bidding war on either of them. I don't see how the Sox get one of them without one of the big 3 and I wouldn't trade any of them right now. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 4, 2024 9:02:33 GMT -5
Fangraphs playoff odds are at 11%. When they fired Chaim half of the leaks were complaining about not selling with playoff odds twice that high.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jun 4, 2024 9:06:33 GMT -5
In theory if they are in that middle-ground space at the deadline where they're not bad enough to completely give up, but not good enough to fully go for it, Jansen, Martin and O'Neill are all theoretically replaceable. Slaten to closer, Weissert & Benardino to set-up men, and Duran/Rafaela/Abreu + Refsnyder as your outfielders. I would still rather have those three dudes on the roster if you're actually trying to win games, but there's a case to be made the drop-off wouldn't be catastrophic.
Moving Pivetta though would be like moving Eovaldi in summer 2022 - a complete white flag. They barely have any room for error or injury when it comes to starting rotation literally right now - shipping Pivetta away without a clear option to replace him would really screw them.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jun 4, 2024 9:12:36 GMT -5
In theory if they are in that middle-ground space at the deadline where they're not bad enough to completely give up, but not good enough to fully go for it, Jansen, Martin and O'Neill are all theoretically replaceable. Slaten to closer, Weissert & Benardino to set-up men, and Duran/Rafaela/Abreu + Refsnyder as your outfielders. I would still rather have those three dudes on the roster if you're actually trying to win games, but there's a case to be made the drop-off wouldn't be catastrophic. Moving Pivetta though would be like moving Eovaldi in summer 2022 - a complete white flag. They barely have any room for error or injury when it comes to starting rotation literally right now - shipping Pivetta away without a clear option to replace him would really screw them. Don't forget about Liam Hendriks. Assuming his recovery is on pace, they already have their replacement for Kenley. The others you mention should be more than able to replace Chris Martin as well. Fully expect both of them to be moved. |
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Post by incandenza on Jun 4, 2024 9:15:54 GMT -5
Fangraphs playoff odds are at 11%. When they fired Chaim half of the leaks were complaining about not selling with playoff odds twice that high. Wow, didn't realize they were that low already. I guess that's what happens when the division is completely out of reach and you have three overperforming AL Central teams clogging up the wild card picture. (Over in the NL the Cubs are two games under .500 and have 35% playoff odds. Even the Reds, at 27-33, have better playoff odds than the Red Sox.)
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jun 4, 2024 9:32:18 GMT -5
Fangraphs playoff odds are at 11%. When they fired Chaim half of the leaks were complaining about not selling with playoff odds twice that high. From what I'm seeing here: www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/fg/wc | Team | Projected Wins | Playoff Odds | | Orioles | 93 | 93% | | Twins | 87 | 69% (nice) | | Royals | 85 | 55% | | Astros | 82 | 37% | | Rangers | 80 | 21% | | Rays | 81 | 21% | | Tigers | 81 | 20% | | Blue Jays | 80 | 17% | | Red Sox | 79 | 12% |
I wouldn't say that 11-12% is necessarily wrong - unless the Sox win like 100 games the Division is going to be out of reach, so unlike a few teams in the Central and West they and the Rays/Blue Jays only have path: beat out the other middling teams in the AL and overtake the Twins or Royals for a WC spot. With that said, perhaps someone can inform me on how Fangraphs adjusts their playoff projections over the course of the year. If the system is still working under the assumption that say, Tanner Houck, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Connor Wong are all going to be mediocre (which is how Fangraphs projected them originally), would that not lower their expected win total by a decent amount? Additionally, it's not like most of the other AL teams WC hopefuls seem to be in great position either. Whoever overperforms in the 2nd half (there's always someone), there's a good chance you can get in. |
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Post by incandenza on Jun 4, 2024 9:43:43 GMT -5
With that said, perhaps someone can inform me on how Fangraphs adjusts their playoff projections over the course of the year. If the system is still working under the assumption that say, Tanner Houck, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Connor Wong are all going to be mediocre (which is how Fangraphs projected them originally), would that not lower their expected win total by a decent amount? Additionally, it's not like most of the other AL teams WC hopefuls seem to be in great position either. Whoever overperforms in the 2nd half (there's always someone), there's a good chance you can get in.
This method gives the Red Sox 31% odds and projects them for 82.4 rather than 79.1 wins.
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Post by seamus on Jun 4, 2024 9:54:34 GMT -5
With that said, perhaps someone can inform me on how Fangraphs adjusts their playoff projections over the course of the year. If the system is still working under the assumption that say, Tanner Houck, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Connor Wong are all going to be mediocre (which is how Fangraphs projected them originally), would that not lower their expected win total by a decent amount? Additionally, it's not like most of the other AL teams WC hopefuls seem to be in great position either. Whoever overperforms in the 2nd half (there's always someone), there's a good chance you can get in.
This method gives the Red Sox 31% odds and projects them for 82.4 rather than 79.1 wins.
Okay, I'll give Fangraphs credit for that one. It's neat that there's a tool to make that sort of adjustment. Those odds and projections pass the sniff test for me, moreso than 11% and sub-.500 |
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jun 4, 2024 10:47:20 GMT -5
I do not think the Sox have the pitching depth to be selling arms at the deadline. Besides, the Sox are among a bunch of teams (Rangers, Rays, Jay's, Tigers) within 5 games of the last wild card slot. The Twins and Royals are not the O's and with 100 games left, 2 wild card slots are in play.
Regarding O'Neil, RH punch is commonly considered a need for this team and better or worse he is that. I'd like to see him stay and hopefully have a healthy run so the Sox can make a good determination whether or not to try and re sign him.
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Post by wamderingdude on Jun 4, 2024 10:52:18 GMT -5
Breslow’s most recent interview on WEEI, he talked about how the decision to buy or sell is driven by their internal projections and playoff probability compared to looking at standings. Couple that with the “we won’t sacrifice futures wins for wins solely in 2024” and i think you can almost guarantee the rentals are moved. The only one i can see maybe sticking around is pivetta with either an extension or the potential for a QO. I also think there’s a chance they make a “buy” move of a guy with multiple years of control. It would be nice to consolidate some of the rule 5 guys. I also wonder if we see some groundwork on a potential outfield trade, or talks around what Wong would be worth with Teel and Anthony potentially taking away everyday reps from current everyday player's (good problem to have)
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jun 4, 2024 11:11:00 GMT -5
Breslow’s most recent interview on WEEI, he talked about how the decision to buy or sell is driven by their internal projections and playoff probability compared to looking at standings. Couple that with the “we won’t sacrifice futures wins for wins solely in 2024” and i think you can almost guarantee the rentals are moved. The only one i can see maybe sticking around is pivetta with either an extension or the potential for a QO. I also think there’s a chance they make a “buy” move of a guy with multiple years of control. It would be nice to consolidate some of the rule 5 guys. I also wonder if we see some groundwork on a potential outfield trade, or talks around what Wong would be worth with Teel and Anthony potentially taking away everyday reps from current everyday player's (good problem to have) I read that statement to mean they will not deal prospects for a 2024 rental. I do not see how keeping potential free agents if they are still in the race as sacrificing future wins. He does not say they will sacrifice 2024 wins for future wins. |
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Post by chr31ter on Jun 4, 2024 11:16:45 GMT -5
If the Red Sox get to the deadline, and they're basically in the same position they're in right now - hovering at or a little above .500 with a less than 25% chance to make the playoffs, I'd be fine if they sold off all of their pending free agents.
Breslow and ownership could then come out and say that the team's assessment was that they might be able to make the playoffs, but their odds of winning a World Series were slim, and I think most fans would buy it. I certainly would. At that point, their focus should be entirely on trying to find valuable pieces of their next championship team. And while I've enjoyed watching the 2024 Red Sox more than a lot of people, I haven't really seen much that screams "World Series contender".
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Post by wamderingdude on Jun 4, 2024 11:25:57 GMT -5
Breslow’s most recent interview on WEEI, he talked about how the decision to buy or sell is driven by their internal projections and playoff probability compared to looking at standings. Couple that with the “we won’t sacrifice futures wins for wins solely in 2024” and i think you can almost guarantee the rentals are moved. The only one i can see maybe sticking around is pivetta with either an extension or the potential for a QO. I also think there’s a chance they make a “buy” move of a guy with multiple years of control. It would be nice to consolidate some of the rule 5 guys. I also wonder if we see some groundwork on a potential outfield trade, or talks around what Wong would be worth with Teel and Anthony potentially taking away everyday reps from current everyday player's (good problem to have) I read that statement to mean they will not deal prospects for a 2024 rental. I do not see how keeping potential free agents if they are still in the race as sacrificing future wins. He does not say they will sacrifice 2024 wins for future wins. Sure, i definitely think that’s what he meant when he said it, but i can also apply it to the deadline. If you can get pieces that you think can impact winning in the future for a guy who will only be here for 2024, i think not making the move is sacrificing some form of future wins for this year. It’s obviously more nuanced than that but they’ve told us all offseason what they thought about the team, i don’t anticipate them changing course now and keeping rentals for a 20 percent chance of a wildcard berth. |
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jun 4, 2024 11:36:50 GMT -5
Breslow’s most recent interview on WEEI, he talked about how the decision to buy or sell is driven by their internal projections and playoff probability compared to looking at standings. Couple that with the “we won’t sacrifice futures wins for wins solely in 2024” and i think you can almost guarantee the rentals are moved. The only one i can see maybe sticking around is pivetta with either an extension or the potential for a QO. I think how you lay this out is probably what happens, but my argument to Craig Breslow would be: 1) you already have a young and cost-controlled positional core in place and on the cusp, to the extent that we are having theoretical arguments about whether to trade certain guys like Grissom, Duran, Wong, etc when Mayer, Teel, and Anthony come up. 2) it is legal to spend money in free agency! Worried about not getting future value for Kenley Jansen or Tyler O'Neill? Okay, cool - spend money next year to replace them. This is not a Tampa/Milwuakee situation where you have to trade everyone ahead of time (Glasnow, Burnes, etc) because you can't afford to replace them in free agency if they leave. ( Although who knows what the Sox budget will be next year...) So like if the team is still in it and you want to trade some of your middle tier farm pieces to get an upgrade and try to make the playoffs... what's the harm? Last year they had guys like Shane Drohan (was ranked #6 on SP!) and Ryan Fernandez as possible trade chips who they lost in Rule 5 anyway. Brandon Walter and Mata got hurt. Bonaci... uh you know. There are guys this year they can trade with 2024 in mind. But they might just very well be dead-set on 2025. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 4, 2024 11:40:47 GMT -5
I’d be on board for a buy-sell approach if there’s someone controlled available. For example you sell Pivetta, Martin, Jansen, etc. and use some of the prospect capital (+others) to bring in Crochet.
Another name I could see being interesting to some contender is McGuire. I’m not sure if there’s a contending team with a replacement level catcher but if so he’s a good option. He’s controlled next year but if Teel will be ready mid year anyways I’d move on for a good offer.
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Post by cto94 on Jun 4, 2024 12:03:57 GMT -5
Assuming they stay on their current trajectory, I'd be in favor of selling Jansen and Martin to the highest bidder at the deadline.
With Pivetta and O'Neill, I'd be pretty happy to keep both guys around if the price is right, which seems very possible at the moment. It's hard to see the return for a few months of either one being particularly meaningful right now, and if you can bring them both back for 2-3 years in the $10-$13m/yr range with some incentives (which seems reasonable to me) they can contribute next year and still probably hold trade value if they become redundant.
One thing I thought was interesting in Jeff Passan's piece was the idea that the ChiSox might move Luis Robert Jr. Even if the outfield is an area of strength for us, a plus defender with RH pop who will be 27 in August is pretty interesting, especially with a couple of years of team control left. The price might be a little prohibitive but I think they should at least kick the tires if they're genuinely taking calls on him
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Post by melvinhoggs on Jun 4, 2024 12:05:11 GMT -5
If the Red Sox get to the deadline, and they're basically in the same position they're in right now - hovering at or a little above .500 with a less than 25% chance to make the playoffs, I'd be fine if they sold off all of their pending free agents. Breslow and ownership could then come out and say that the team's assessment was that they might be able to make the playoffs, but their odds of winning a World Series were slim, and I think most fans would buy it. I certainly would. At that point, their focus should be entirely on trying to find valuable pieces of their next championship team. And while I've enjoyed watching the 2024 Red Sox more than a lot of people, I haven't really seen much that screams "World Series contender". I feel this way too, but nobody they would move at the deadline is one of the people that has made it enjoyable for me to watch (with the possible exception of O'Neill, who gets a "sort of"). I don't mind sometimes clinging to hope with low playoff odds if you see some real reasons for 2nd-half optimism; I do mind doing it over and over and getting stuck in the middle-of-the-pack sludge of mediocrity.
If they're not much improved come deadline time, listen on any and all pending free agents.
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Post by wamderingdude on Jun 4, 2024 12:38:40 GMT -5
Breslow’s most recent interview on WEEI, he talked about how the decision to buy or sell is driven by their internal projections and playoff probability compared to looking at standings. Couple that with the “we won’t sacrifice futures wins for wins solely in 2024” and i think you can almost guarantee the rentals are moved. The only one i can see maybe sticking around is pivetta with either an extension or the potential for a QO. I think how you lay this out is probably what happens, but my argument to Craig Breslow would be: 1) you already have a young and cost-controlled positional core in place and on the cusp, to the extent that we are having theoretical arguments about whether to trade certain guys like Grissom, Duran, Wong, etc when Mayer, Teel, and Anthony come up. 2) it is legal to spend money in free agency! Worried about not getting future value for Kenley Jansen or Tyler O'Neill? Okay, cool - spend money next year to replace them. This is not a Tampa/Milwuakee situation where you have to trade everyone ahead of time (Glasnow, Burnes, etc) because you can't afford to replace them in free agency if they leave. ( Although who knows what the Sox budget will be next year...) So like if the team is still in it and you want to trade some of your middle tier farm pieces to get an upgrade and try to make the playoffs... what's the harm? Last year they had guys like Shane Drohan (was ranked #6 on SP!) and Ryan Fernandez as possible trade chips who they lost in Rule 5 anyway. Brandon Walter and Mata got hurt. Bonaci... uh you know. There are guys this year they can trade with 2024 in mind. But they might just very well be dead-set on 2025. I can see where you’re coming from. My counter would be that you could trade Kenley, Martin etc for prospects and then replace them via free agency as well, there’s no reason to not do both. It’s obviously getting cluttered and it’s going to take some navigating, but you can never have enough good players or prospects, even if it forces you to be creative moving around pieces. The Schreiber for Sandlin trade to me is a good baseline of getting an interesting guy who may be a couple of years away and you don’t have to worry about 40 man considerations soon. My ideal approach would be selling rentals and consolidating rule 5 eligible guys for a controlled piece but that’s obviously hard to do. |
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Post by pappyman99 on Jun 4, 2024 15:08:10 GMT -5
I mean I’ll be consistent but think it’s the last year we really will be doing it.
I’m for trading Oneill, Pivetta, Martin, and Jansen
At the same time I’m open to packaging quality 40 man roster decision guys (Kavadas, meidroth, Lugo, Sogard, Jordan, W.Gonalez, Yorke, etc for someone ready and controllable
I check if someone wants Yoshida for sure
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 4, 2024 15:13:39 GMT -5
The problem with the guys we have to trade is they're all kind of in the "the return is going to be guys that need to be on the 40 this offseason and are mildly annoying to have eating roster spots" zone
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 4, 2024 15:20:15 GMT -5
The problem with the guys we have to trade is they're all kind of in the "the return is going to be guys that need to be on the 40 this offseason and are mildly annoying to have eating roster spots" zone Pretty much this or far away low minors lotto tickets. I'd still deal them all if they are in seller mode with the exception of Pivetta. I'd rather QO him and try and get an extension or the draft pick instead of a lotto ticket or fringy guy who needs to go on the 40 man. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 4, 2024 15:29:01 GMT -5
At the same time I’m open to packaging quality 40 man roster decision guys (Kavadas, meidroth, Lugo, Sogard, Jordan, W.Gonalez, Yorke, etc for someone ready and controllable Other than Meidroth, the trade value of these guys is all really close to zero. Nobody wants the 40 man roster headache guys and the teams with space to take some on get to be very picky |
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