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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 26, 2024 13:38:43 GMT -5
Sure let's trade the better player in Casas, probably a guy with just as much if not more value in abreu and on top of that pay vlad Jr at least twice what he's worth!
I know that's pretty much some rando fans tweet but maybe they should educate themselves just a tiny bit before tweeting about baseball if they're gonna do that.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 26, 2024 14:04:01 GMT -5
I think a lot of people are going to be shocked by what the trade and free agent markets have to say about Vlad Jr in the next year and a half.
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Post by itinerantherb on Jun 26, 2024 14:12:48 GMT -5
I think you're both forgetting that Vlad has hit really well FOR TWO GAMES IN A ROW AGAINST THE SOX, including a 470 foot HR! And he was awesome in 2021.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 26, 2024 14:22:49 GMT -5
I think a lot of people are going to be shocked by what the trade and free agent markets have to say about Vlad Jr in the next year and a half. That might be right. Though the signs are not all bad on Vlad this season. He's continued his long-term ISO decline. But he has his best BB rate, BA, OBP, wOBA, and xwOBA since 2021. He's actually 8th in the majors by xwOBA. And 99th percentile on hard hit % and exit velocity; lots of bright red on his baseballsavant page. He might be just a tweak from fixing his launch angle issues and getting back to that superstar level he was at in 2021. He'll be hitting free agency real young too.
(Caveat: my perceptions might be a little bit influenced by seeing him hit a 750 foot home run two days ago.)
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 26, 2024 14:33:46 GMT -5
I think a lot of people are going to be shocked by what the trade and free agent markets have to say about Vlad Jr in the next year and a half. That might be right. Though the signs are not all bad on Vlad this season. He's continued his long-term ISO decline. But he has his best BB rate, BA, OBP, wOBA, and xwOBA since 2021. He's actually 8th in the majors by xwOBA. And 99th percentile on hard hit % and exit velocity; lots of bright red on his baseballsavant page. He might be just a tweak from fixing his launch angle issues and getting back to that superstar level he was at in 2021. He'll be hitting free agency real young too.
(Caveat: my perceptions might be a little bit influenced by seeing him hit a 750 foot home run two days ago.)
He's still an above average hitter wRC+ of 132 this season. I put on record on this site that I would love to see Vlad Jr at DH in between Rafi and Casas in the lineup. The problem is he can't play defense worth a damn so he's a DH only type of guy at this point. Not that they are a 1:1 comparison but I'll be interested to see what Alonso gets in FA this year, Vlad will be 2-3 years younger when he hits FA but in terms of output hitting wise they are a good comparison IMO.
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Jun 26, 2024 14:45:53 GMT -5
Vlad's exit velocities are back up this year, close to his 2021 campaign. I don't have any insight, but the Statcast model loves him.
Absolutely a DH, though, and while Devers/Casas are fine at 3B/1B for now, I'm not sure that can be projected 5+ years out?
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,543
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Post by asm18 on Jun 26, 2024 16:13:11 GMT -5
“When you stay put, well there’s gonna be teams that they added, and they’re gonna be better than you. It’s not that your team was a bad team, but the other ones around you got better.” 💯
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 26, 2024 16:18:30 GMT -5
With the talented players we have now and one’s coming. I don’t want to lock a DH into a long-term contract. If ya find me a corner OF who is an impact RH bat. Could go for that.
We’ve actually been pretty good picking up short term rh bats. Renfroe, Duvall, Turner and now TON.
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Post by keninten on Jun 26, 2024 18:37:51 GMT -5
“When you stay put, well there’s gonna be teams that they added, and they’re gonna be better than you. It’s not that your team was a bad team, but the other ones around you got better.” 💯 Of course he wants to add. Especially if this is his last year on the bench.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 26, 2024 19:11:18 GMT -5
Cranky rain delay opinion: Cora presided over two consecutive years of the team basically quitting in the last quarter of the season. Yeah, Duran and Casas got hurt and they only added one player at the trade deadline last year, but is that why the Red Sox finished *11 games* out of the wild card when they were only 2 games out at the trade deadline?
Those consecutive collapses may have caused the last GM his job. So I don't *love* Cora raising expectations and putting public pressure on his GM to be aggressive at the trade deadline. Especially considering that the team is basically unimprovable (barring a fairly major starting pitcher addition).
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Post by dcb26 on Jun 26, 2024 21:15:08 GMT -5
Cranky rain delay opinion: Cora presided over two consecutive years of the team basically quitting in the last quarter of the season. Yeah, Duran and Casas got hurt and they only added one player at the trade deadline last year, but is that why the Red Sox finished *11 games* out of the wild card when they were only 2 games out at the trade deadline? Those consecutive collapses may have caused the last GM his job. So I don't *love* Cora raising expectations and putting public pressure on his GM to be aggressive at the trade deadline. Especially considering that the team is basically unimprovable (barring a fairly major starting pitcher addition). "A bad workman blames his tools" is generally my thoughts on the topic.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 26, 2024 23:04:23 GMT -5
Cranky rain delay opinion: Cora presided over two consecutive years of the team basically quitting in the last quarter of the season. Yeah, Duran and Casas got hurt and they only added one player at the trade deadline last year, but is that why the Red Sox finished *11 games* out of the wild card when they were only 2 games out at the trade deadline? Those consecutive collapses may have caused the last GM his job. So I don't *love* Cora raising expectations and putting public pressure on his GM to be aggressive at the trade deadline. Especially considering that the team is basically unimprovable (barring a fairly major starting pitcher addition). The team is certainly improveable. All teams are improveable. The question is what is available, what is the cost, and is it worth it? That said, I have no desire to see any of Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Campbell, Cespedes, or even Bleis get dealt. And I'm not eager to deal youngsters like Abreu, Hamilton, or Rafaela. I think dealing Grissom away would be short sighted So that leaves you a quantity of second tier prospects to deal to improve the current team, which I think should add, rather than subtract, given their emergence, but without giving up any of the guys I listed I doubt there is much in the way of sizeable upgrades to improve the roster. But I am an admitted prospect hugger so i wouldn't be great at the judgment thing like a good PoBO should be. My hope is that Grissom gets healthy, rakes in AAA and becomes the 2b with Hamilton at SS, O'Neill becoming the primary DH with Duran in LF and Rafaela in CF. But if that doesnt work a stop gap SS who can play good defense without being an automatic out would help. And yes starter, perhaps Tyler Anderson, ir maybe a rental would come cheaper, a short-term who could slot in behind Houcj and ahead of Pivetta, Crawford and Bellp, but theyd probably have to give up players I'd hate to give up.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,543
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Post by asm18 on Jun 27, 2024 7:07:49 GMT -5
“The Jays look like certain sellers, but almost certainly will wait as long as possible to choose a direction. The Houston Astros, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, and Boston Red Sox are among the clubs that seemingly have turned around their seasons. Jays officials, operating with a franchise-record $225 million payroll, want to give their underperforming roster every chance to do the same.“
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Post by incandenza on Jun 27, 2024 9:24:45 GMT -5
Cranky rain delay opinion: Cora presided over two consecutive years of the team basically quitting in the last quarter of the season. Yeah, Duran and Casas got hurt and they only added one player at the trade deadline last year, but is that why the Red Sox finished *11 games* out of the wild card when they were only 2 games out at the trade deadline? Those consecutive collapses may have caused the last GM his job. So I don't *love* Cora raising expectations and putting public pressure on his GM to be aggressive at the trade deadline. Especially considering that the team is basically unimprovable (barring a fairly major starting pitcher addition). The team is certainly improveable. All teams are improveable. The question is what is available, what is the cost, and is it worth it? That said, I have no desire to see any of Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Campbell, Cespedes, or even Bleis get dealt. And I'm not eager to deal youngsters like Abreu, Hamilton, or Rafaela. I think dealing Grissom away would be short sighted So that leaves you a quantity of second tier prospects to deal to improve the current team, which I think should add, rather than subtract, given their emergence, but without giving up any of the guys I listed I doubt there is much in the way of sizeable upgrades to improve the roster. But I am an admitted prospect hugger so i wouldn't be great at the judgment thing like a good PoBO should be. My hope is that Grissom gets healthy, rakes in AAA and becomes the 2b with Hamilton at SS, O'Neill becoming the primary DH with Duran in LF and Rafaela in CF. But if that doesnt work a stop gap SS who can play good defense without being an automatic out would help. And yes starter, perhaps Tyler Anderson, ir maybe a rental would come cheaper, a short-term who could slot in behind Houcj and ahead of Pivetta, Crawford and Bellp, but theyd probably have to give up players I'd hate to give up. You tell me the team is improvable, and then you recommend Tyler Anderson, who would actively make the team worse. He somehow has a 2.63 ERA but that is about the fool's goldiest ERA I've ever seen because look at the rest of these numbers:
5.9 K/9 4.2 BB/9 4.71 xERA 4.77 FIP 5.28 xFIP
As for the shortstop, who would it be that would improve on the combination of Hamilton and Romy? I don't see that player out there.
Anyway, like I said they might be able to make a marginal improvement by adding a starting pitcher, especially if certain teams fall out of the playoff hunt, which will probably happen in the next month. But there's no obvious hole to fill, and nothing at all they can really do on the position player side. But if it's a seller's market (and with so few sellers it probably will be) I wouldn't want Breslow to force anything if it's not a good deal for the long term. Which is why I don't like Cora putting that much more pressure on him to do so.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 27, 2024 9:33:59 GMT -5
The team is certainly improveable. All teams are improveable. The question is what is available, what is the cost, and is it worth it? That said, I have no desire to see any of Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Campbell, Cespedes, or even Bleis get dealt. And I'm not eager to deal youngsters like Abreu, Hamilton, or Rafaela. I think dealing Grissom away would be short sighted So that leaves you a quantity of second tier prospects to deal to improve the current team, which I think should add, rather than subtract, given their emergence, but without giving up any of the guys I listed I doubt there is much in the way of sizeable upgrades to improve the roster. But I am an admitted prospect hugger so i wouldn't be great at the judgment thing like a good PoBO should be. My hope is that Grissom gets healthy, rakes in AAA and becomes the 2b with Hamilton at SS, O'Neill becoming the primary DH with Duran in LF and Rafaela in CF. But if that doesnt work a stop gap SS who can play good defense without being an automatic out would help. And yes starter, perhaps Tyler Anderson, ir maybe a rental would come cheaper, a short-term who could slot in behind Houcj and ahead of Pivetta, Crawford and Bellp, but theyd probably have to give up players I'd hate to give up. You tell me the team is improvable, and then you recommend Tyler Anderson, who would actively make the team worse. He somehow has a 2.63 ERA but that is about the fool's goldiest ERA I've ever seen because look at the rest of these numbers:
5.9 K/9 4.2 BB/9 4.71 xERA 4.77 FIP 5.28 xFIP
As for the shortstop, who would it be that would improve on the combination of Hamilton and Romy? I don't see that player out there.
Anyway, like I said they might be able to make a marginal improvement by adding a starting pitcher, especially if certain teams fall out of the playoff hunt, which will probably happen in the next month. But there's no obvious hole to fill, and nothing at all they can really do on the position player side. But if it's a seller's market (and with so few sellers it probably will be) I wouldn't want Breslow to force anything if it's not a good deal for the long term. Which is why I don't like Cora putting that much more pressure on him to do so.
Anderson's under the hood #s are ugly so I agree not much interest on my end in him unless he can basically be had for a song and even then probably not unless an SP or two goes down between now and the deadline. As for improving SS, if Hamilton's last month is even sustainable on any level then for sure there isn't an upgrade out there. That being said, I'm not a Valdez believer so I still say I'd be interested in DeJong if I was the Sox. Send down Valdez, play Hamilton at 2nd and Dejong at SS with Romy backing up and Valdez down in Worcester as injury replacement but I'm not going to die on that hill. If they make the move for him great if not oh well not like it's going to make or break them. I agree in regards to Cora's quotes, that was unnecessary pressure to add to front office in a season where quite frankly the amount of impact players traded at the deadline will probably be able to be counted on one hand. It's going to be a big time sellers market if I had to guess and I agree with what Breslow said in the offseason that they aren't interested in trading additional future wins for 2024 wins and I don't think that should change with less than half the season to go by the time the deadline comes.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,543
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Post by asm18 on Jun 27, 2024 9:51:20 GMT -5
Cora is looking at three straight trade deadlines of the message being, “we might just trade everybody if our playoff odds aren’t at a certain arbitrary number” hanging over the team… and yet it’s out of line for him to set expectations high when the team is actually playing well? That’s what he should be doing!
It’s on the front office to arbitrate between short-term and long-term needs of the franchise. It’s not the coaches and players’ jobs to be like, “Ah well, you know it’s a seller market. We get it, Craig.” Breslow’s a big boy, he can handle it.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 27, 2024 10:04:33 GMT -5
Cora is looking at three straight trade deadlines of the message being, “we might just trade everybody if our playoff odds aren’t at a certain arbitrary number” hanging over the team… and yet it’s out of line for him to set expectations high when the team is actually playing well? That’s what he should be doing! It’s on the front office to arbitrate between short-term and long-term needs of the franchise. It’s not the coaches and players’ jobs to be like, “Ah well, you know it’s a seller market. We get it, Craig.” Breslow’s a big boy, he can handle it. Yes, this is how it works - if the team is not good their playoff odds go down and then it makes sense to sell, which I suppose is a risk that "hangs over the team."
I dunno, it doesn't seem like it would be hard for Cora to be like "our job is to try to win games, whatever happens at the deadline," and just not say anything about what the front office ought to be doing. I don't think Breslow goes out in interviews and talks about how Cora ought to be managing the bullpen and whatnot. As a fan I don't like Cora doing that because I care about the short-term and long-term needs of the franchise - interestingly, just like the front office, but perhaps not like Cora.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 2,543
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Post by asm18 on Jun 27, 2024 10:17:17 GMT -5
As a fan I don't like Cora doing that because I care about the short-term and long-term needs of the franchise - interestingly, just like the front office, but perhaps not like Cora. [/div][/quote] I mean if they want him to care about beyond 2024… give him an extension. I guess I don’t see this as any different than when like Lebron or an NBA player wants certain moves to be made, or when a quarterback is asking for extra receivers in the NFL draft. Obviously I don’t want Breslow just being like, “Well AC wants moves, so I better do it.” But I have no issue with him asking for stuff. They don’t HAVE to indulge him if it’s doesn’t make sense. Breslow is the one in charge here - if he doesn’t like Cora saying stuff like this he can try telling him not to or choose not to try to renew his contract
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Post by melvinhoggs on Jun 27, 2024 10:26:49 GMT -5
Cora is looking at three straight trade deadlines of the message being, “we might just trade everybody if our playoff odds aren’t at a certain arbitrary number” hanging over the team… and yet it’s out of line for him to set expectations high when the team is actually playing well? That’s what he should be doing! It’s on the front office to arbitrate between short-term and long-term needs of the franchise. It’s not the coaches and players’ jobs to be like, “Ah well, you know it’s a seller market. We get it, Craig.” Breslow’s a big boy, he can handle it. Yes, this is how it works - if the team is not good their playoff odds go down and then it makes sense to sell, which I suppose is a risk that "hangs over the team."
I dunno, it doesn't seem like it would be hard for Cora to be like "our job is to try to win games, whatever happens at the deadline," and just not say anything about what the front office ought to be doing. I don't think Breslow goes out in interviews and talks about how Cora ought to be managing the bullpen and whatnot. As a fan I don't like Cora doing that because I care about the short-term and long-term needs of the franchise - interestingly, just like the front office, but perhaps not like Cora.
This feels like a really sour over-reading into a single comment by a manager who's excited that the team is playing well. Cora's not stepping on anyone's toes here, and it has 0% effect on what Breslow and the FO will do.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 27, 2024 10:28:01 GMT -5
You tell me the team is improvable, and then you recommend Tyler Anderson, who would actively make the team worse. He somehow has a 2.63 ERA but that is about the fool's goldiest ERA I've ever seen because look at the rest of these numbers: 5.9 K/9 4.2 BB/9 4.71 xERA 4.77 FIP 5.28 xFIP As for the shortstop, who would it be that would improve on the combination of Hamilton and Romy? I don't see that player out there. Anyway, like I said they might be able to make a marginal improvement by adding a starting pitcher, especially if certain teams fall out of the playoff hunt, which will probably happen in the next month. But there's no obvious hole to fill, and nothing at all they can really do on the position player side. But if it's a seller's market (and with so few sellers it probably will be) I wouldn't want Breslow to force anything if it's not a good deal for the long term. Which is why I don't like Cora putting that much more pressure on him to do so.
Anderson's under the hood #s are ugly so I agree not much interest on my end in him unless he can basically be had for a song and even then probably not unless an SP or two goes down between now and the deadline. As for improving SS, if Hamilton's last month is even sustainable on any level then for sure there isn't an upgrade out there. That being said, I'm not a Valdez believer so I still say I'd be interested in DeJong if I was the Sox. Send down Valdez, play Hamilton at 2nd and Dejong at SS with Romy backing up and Valdez down in Worcester as injury replacement but I'm not going to die on that hill. If they make the move for him great if not oh well not like it's going to make or break them. I agree in regards to Cora's quotes, that was unnecessary pressure to add to front office in a season where quite frankly the amount of impact players traded at the deadline will probably be able to be counted on one hand. It's going to be a big time sellers market if I had to guess and I agree with what Breslow said in the offseason that they aren't interested in trading additional future wins for 2024 wins and I don't think that should change with less than half the season to go by the time the deadline comes. Believe deJong adds almost nothing to the team and limited range meidroth would probably serve the better bat. Meyer on the slow train at Portland is vexing. Perhaps it's because both Yorke/meidroth at AAA presently, but seeing if meyer hits at AAA as well as at AA gives more benefit organization wide. Just stop adding yet more middle infielders when there is a glut already. Try promoting 1 who has done well at every step for a change.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 27, 2024 10:37:29 GMT -5
My case against DeJong would be:
- typographically weird name - 77 wRC+ since 2021 - sub-.300 xwOBA each of the last three seasons
- negative defensive metrics across the board this season - has a worse rest-of-season Steamer projection than all of Hamilton, Valdez, and Romy - has a slightly worse rest-of-season ZiPS projection than Hamilton and Romy and only slightly better projection than Valdez - Grissom's in the mix here too and I don't want to hold two of these guys back in AAA just to keep DeJong on the roster
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 27, 2024 10:46:56 GMT -5
As a fan I don't like Cora doing that because I care about the short-term and long-term needs of the franchise - interestingly, just like the front office, but perhaps not like Cora. [/div][/quote]
I mean if they want him to care about beyond 2024… give him an extension.
I guess I don’t see this as any different than when like Lebron or an NBA player wants certain moves to be made, or when a quarterback is asking for extra receivers in the NFL draft. Obviously I don’t want Breslow just being like, “Well AC wants moves, so I better do it.” But I have no issue with him asking for stuff. They don’t HAVE to indulge him if it’s doesn’t make sense.
Breslow is the one in charge here - if he doesn’t like Cora saying stuff like this he can try telling him not to or choose not to try to renew his contract [/quote] I think it's bad for the team when Lebron or any NBA player does this too. I also don't think Breslow can simply tell Cora what not to say. Cora saying this puts needless pressure on the front office both from the public and from the team. In the end I don't think it's that big a deal because I trust the front office will make the best decision, and I trust the players will try regardless, but comments like these create an annoying narrative and achieve nothing. Add: don't know what's going on with the formatting here but I tried to fix it and it made it worse
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 27, 2024 11:01:10 GMT -5
Fair enough in regards to DeJong, still will maintain I would trade for him if the cost was basically nothing. Like I said not a hill I'm going to die on. I'm also just not too into Valdez logging major PT at 2nd either but yes overall the difference in DeJong vs Valdez/Romy is probably negligible and could very well be a net negative if Valdez can hit well enough.
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Post by oleary25 on Jun 27, 2024 11:38:38 GMT -5
Do you think Gausman might become available if the Blue Jays are selling off. He fits what the front office is looking for controllable front line pitching at a reasonably affordable price. You’re looking at 11 million remaining this year, and 23 million in the next two subsequent years. 57 million for two and a half years of control. What do you think the cost maybe?
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 27, 2024 11:42:23 GMT -5
Do you think Gausman might become available if the Blue Jays are selling off. He fits what the front office is looking for controllable front line pitching at a reasonably affordable price. You’re looking at 11 million remaining this year, and 23 million in the next two subsequent years. 57 million for two and a half years of control. What do you think the cost maybe? They might be open to it but just looking at his stat line there’s some big red flags. His fastball velocity is down almost 1 MPH, his K% has dropped dramatically and his xERA is terrible.
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