asm18
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Posts: 1,262
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Post by asm18 on Jun 4, 2024 15:30:01 GMT -5
Being a Padres fan with AJ Preller as your GM must be the sport equivalent of being a hostage on the bus-that-can’t-go-under-50-mph-or-it-will-explode from Speed
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Post by seamus on Jun 4, 2024 15:49:55 GMT -5
The Padres were arguably the most forgettable team in baseball for decades. I guess somebody made a wish in the 2010's and that monkey paw curled all but one finger.
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Post by itinerantherb on Jun 4, 2024 16:13:52 GMT -5
What do you all think 3.5 years of Crochet would cost in terms of Sox prospects? Not advocating, just curious.
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Post by rhswanzey on Jun 4, 2024 16:22:29 GMT -5
What do you all think 3.5 years of Crochet would cost in terms of Sox prospects? Not advocating, just curious. First glance is this is going to be a difficult player to match on. These are the only 13 starts of his professional career and he’s had a recent TJ. There are legitimate reasons to not buy in so quickly on Crochet as a #2 but White Sox have every incentive to market him as 3.5 years of cost controlled #2. Are you impressed by how nimbly I avoided answering your question, because I don’t want to be the guy who puts way too light or way too heavy of an ask down in writing?
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 4, 2024 16:47:26 GMT -5
What do you all think 3.5 years of Crochet would cost in terms of Sox prospects? Not advocating, just curious. First glance is this is going to be a difficult player to match on. These are the only 13 starts of his professional career and he’s had a recent TJ. There are legitimate reasons to not buy in so quickly on Crochet as a #2 but White Sox have every incentive to market him as 3.5 years of cost controlled #2. Are you impressed by how nimbly I avoided answering your question, because I don’t want to be the guy who puts way too light or way too heavy of an ask down in writing? Therein lies the rub, I'd certainly be interested in getting Crochet. I don't believe his start to the year is a mirage. I think he's a very talented pitcher with great stuff. However I would still be leery paying the price of a #2 type starter I'm sure the chisox are going to ask for. It still is just a half of a season of results as an SP.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 4, 2024 16:50:16 GMT -5
Let's call Crochet a 3 WAR pitcher going forward. 2.5 years left. He's making 800k in his first year arb, not really sure what his future arb salaries would look like with his weird career, maybe 6 and 10 million. 7.5 WAR for 16 million = $50 million in surplus value. Worth a lot more than Soto and Burnes were this offseason
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 1,262
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Post by asm18 on Jun 4, 2024 18:20:12 GMT -5
Let's call Crochet a 3 WAR pitcher going forward. 2.5 years left. He's making 800k in his first year arb, not really sure what his future arb salaries would look like with his weird career, maybe 6 and 10 million. 7.5 WAR for 16 million = $50 million in surplus value. Worth a lot more than Soto and Burnes were this offseason Once the new SP rankings are out this week maybe we need to make a Trade List of dudes - Untouchable, Willing to Discuss, and Actively Shopping. I think the issue is if you want Crochet, Luzardo, Luis Roberts, etc, it’s going to cost you guys from the first bucket, which seems to be what held up deals over the winter.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jun 4, 2024 19:27:51 GMT -5
Luzardo got absolutely shelled tonight. ERA now at 5.30. 2 years of contract control left.
I think he ends up being had for a more than reasonable price tag.
Sox certainly have the system depth to get it done if they want. I think the T3 and likely T5 would be untouchable in this scenario.
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Post by nonothing on Jun 4, 2024 20:02:42 GMT -5
Let's call Crochet a 3 WAR pitcher going forward. 2.5 years left. He's making 800k in his first year arb, not really sure what his future arb salaries would look like with his weird career, maybe 6 and 10 million. 7.5 WAR for 16 million = $50 million in surplus value. Worth a lot more than Soto and Burnes were this offseason Once the new SP rankings are out this week maybe we need to make a Trade List of dudes - Untouchable, Willing to Discuss, and Actively Shopping. I think the issue is if you want Crochet, Luzardo, Luis Roberts, etc, it’s going to cost you guys from the first bucket, which seems to be what held up deals over the winter. Trading healthy players for one's you should expect to be injured -- or in Luzardo's case, he probably already is -- is not typically a good strategy. The WAR calcs only apply if a guy plays. I wouldn't bet $100 that any of those 3 guys plays more than 70% of the next 2 yrs. So I certainly would let others trade for them and not us.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,139
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Post by nomar on Jun 4, 2024 20:08:17 GMT -5
The playoff odds aren’t great and the front office clearly had no faith in this group from the get go, so I think they should be selling on their rentals. I like O’Neill but he will fetch way more than they got him for, and they have 3 cost controlled outfielders plus Yoshida in the fold already. Pivetta I’m off on because he could potentially be extended on the cheap depending on how his year goes
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Post by pappyman99 on Jun 4, 2024 20:39:39 GMT -5
The playoff odds aren’t great and the front office clearly had no faith in this group from the get go, so I think they should be selling on their rentals. I like O’Neill but he will fetch way more than they got him for, and they have 3 cost controlled outfielders plus Yoshida in the fold already. Pivetta I’m off on because he could potentially be extended on the cheap depending on how his year goes Rather trade Pivetta because he could get a lot. I don’t think extending an SP with very mild success and entering his age 32 season would be the best idea
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Post by itinerantherb on Jun 4, 2024 20:41:32 GMT -5
In my fantasy, Yoshida comes back, tears it up for six weeks, and the Padres give up a decent prospect and take half his salary.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 5, 2024 4:39:16 GMT -5
My case for acquiring Crochet (and caveat he probably doesn’t get moved) would be: he’s one of the best handful of pitchers in baseball and 25 next year, the team is on the cusp of competing and he’d give you one of the league’s best rotations, if you sign him you stay out of the 30 year old pitcher FA battle, and that gives you more money to allocate to other FAs (like say Soto + Kim).
It obviously depends on what the price is to get him, but there’s a reasonably high price where it would make sense. Whether or not the deadline is the best time to do it might depend on the team’s standing at the moment, but if this is when he’s moved this is when you have to make the deal.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 5, 2024 5:14:40 GMT -5
Saw someone bring up a thought in regards to Crochet in another site. He's already at his career high in IP at 69. His previous career high was 54. It wouldn't make a lot of sense for a contending team to trade for him right now and expect him to be in their rotation come playoff time. Feels like anyone trading for him would be doing more for the remaining two arb years than for a WS run this year.
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Post by bentossaurus on Jun 5, 2024 5:43:06 GMT -5
Saw someone bring up a thought in regards to Crochet in another site. He's already at his career high in IP at 69. His previous career high was 54. It wouldn't make a lot of sense for a contending team to trade for him right now and expect him to be in their rotation come playoff time. Feels like anyone trading for him would be doing more for the remaining two arb years than for a WS run this year. Agree. I own him on fantasy and I'm looking for a trade because he'll either be shutdown or wear off after the All Star break. Tarik Skubal on the other hand...
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Post by bmoneyproblemz on Jun 5, 2024 7:12:59 GMT -5
One thing I am definitely hoping for is that the Sox are ok eating money for better prospects. I think we could do something like what the Padres did when they sent us Hosmer: we'll eat basically the full salary if you send us a better prospect. Now Groome didn't pan out, and is now suspended for being an idiot, but it's still a good option for the Sox. They're significantly under the cap and could 100% eat Jansen, Martin, and O'Neill's contracts easily. Heck, if they send out Pivetta, they can eat that money too and try to maybe get a little bit better of a guy. I don't see the Bloom sell-to-buy thing happening this year, and to be honest I'm ok with that IF they can get some good pieces back (hopefully some pitching) so they can try to be competitive next year.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 5, 2024 7:17:08 GMT -5
Saw someone bring up a thought in regards to Crochet in another site. He's already at his career high in IP at 69. His previous career high was 54. It wouldn't make a lot of sense for a contending team to trade for him right now and expect him to be in their rotation come playoff time. Feels like anyone trading for him would be doing more for the remaining two arb years than for a WS run this year. Agree. I own him on fantasy and I'm looking for a trade because he'll either be shutdown or wear off after the All Star break. Tarik Skubal on the other hand... I am in a similar boat but it is a dynasty league, but I am in 3rd place right now so I will probably look to flip Crochet for someone to help me out come playoff time. Being a dynasty league though if this is his true ability then I can hold on to him at least. Fantasy baseball aside though, I do wonder what type of return the Chisox could really get right now for Crochet. I would have to think ideally he only pitches 100-120 innings this year. That is basically another 2-3 months of starts. He obviously can be a weapon out of the bullpen though. However the price of a shutdown bullpen arm would seem to me to be less than the price of a potential front of the rotation arm for the stretch run. I wonder if it wouldn't be in the Chisox best interest to just hang on to him and re-visit a trade in the offseason. At the very least it isn't as if they are in a position where they have to deal him right now so they can set a pretty high bar in trades that I'm not sure a contending team will reach. Will be interesting to watch anyway.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jun 5, 2024 8:18:16 GMT -5
A little confused by people saying Chicago would like to market Crochet as a 2…..
What in his numbers as a 24-25 year old suggest he isn’t? They will market him as an ace at this point
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Post by pappyman99 on Jun 5, 2024 9:24:28 GMT -5
I think Pivetta to the Os could actually happen. They want to win and they badly need another good SP.
Could he net a Norby or Kjerstad…. I don’t know maybe. If Pivetta performs that is possible especially since they have no room for this guys realistically
Just a thought
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Post by bentossaurus on Jun 5, 2024 9:34:27 GMT -5
I think Pivetta to the Os could actually happen. They want to win and they badly need another good SP. Could he net a Norby or Kjerstad…. I don’t know maybe. If Pivetta performs that is possible especially since they have no room for this guys realistically Just a thought Package Nick with Martin and Jensen to the Dodgers and try to get one of their top SP prospects. They have more of them than they can shake a fist at for the coming years, and the 3 of them would greatly improve their 2024 chances. Bobby Miller would be the dream.
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Post by briam on Jun 5, 2024 9:44:58 GMT -5
With Boston being so comfortably under the LTT you’d imagine they’d eat the salary of any player in a trade. I imagine a free Pivetta+reliever of choice would net a pretty good return.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 5, 2024 10:02:11 GMT -5
If the Sox are sellers they would have no excuse not to eat the full contracts of anyone they send out in order to get a better package. That being said, I don't know if it will be the best idea to package multiple players in one package. They could probably get a better overall return by packaging guys separately. Then again it might not make a ton of sense to trade all the impending FAs seperately and get back 4-5 guys who need to go on the 40 man this offseason.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jun 5, 2024 10:04:43 GMT -5
I think Pivetta to the Os could actually happen. They want to win and they badly need another good SP. Could he net a Norby or Kjerstad…. I don’t know maybe. If Pivetta performs that is possible especially since they have no room for this guys realistically Just a thought Package Nick with Martin and Jensen to the Dodgers and try to get one of their top SP prospects. They have more of them than they can shake a fist at for the coming years, and the 3 of them would greatly improve their 2024 chances. Bobby Miller would be the dream. Agreed, particularly on Martin/Jansen. They are both former Dodgers, and would likely acclimate seamlessly back into that clubhouse. LAD is also a club that can easily cover their salaries (neither is a bargain, dollar wise) and has young talent to spare in order to drive their short-term aspirations. Would prefer to see the Sox eat the salary in order to fetch better talent in return, but either way, get what you can for these guys.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jun 5, 2024 10:20:21 GMT -5
I think Pivetta to the Os could actually happen. They want to win and they badly need another good SP. Could he net a Norby or Kjerstad…. I don’t know maybe. If Pivetta performs that is possible especially since they have no room for this guys realistically Just a thought Package Nick with Martin and Jensen to the Dodgers and try to get one of their top SP prospects. They have more of them than they can shake a fist at for the coming years, and the 3 of them would greatly improve their 2024 chances. Bobby Miller would be the dream. Less than zero chance Miller gets moved.
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asm18
Veteran
Posts: 1,262
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Post by asm18 on Jun 5, 2024 10:23:09 GMT -5
If the Sox are sellers they would have no excuse not to eat the full contracts of anyone they send out in order to get a better package. That being said, I don't know if it will be the best idea to package multiple players in one package. They could probably get a better overall return by packaging guys separately. Then again it might not make a ton of sense to trade all the impending FAs seperately and get back 4-5 guys who need to go on the 40 man this offseason. I guess this sort of ties together with "dudes who are Rule 5 Eligible" who you might look to move before losing them for nothing (think Shane Drohan and Ryan Fernandez over the Winter). We don't need to do some heavy 40 Man crunch estimate at the moment, but these are folks you at least sorta have to consider as guys you might need to add to the 40 Man? Using SP's Rule 5 Elligibility page here:https://soxprospects.com/rule5.htm -Dick Fitts -Hunter Dobbins? -Luis Guerrero -Matthew Lugo -Yordanny Monegro? -Nick Yorke? -Ryan Zeferjahn You can certainly can quibble with these and I'm sure there are some not listed that have a case as well. But between guys you might bring in via trade and folks like these, there's only so many 40 man spots next winter to go around.
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