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Post by incandenza on Jun 28, 2024 13:03:20 GMT -5
I've noticed this too. Do you know when he first indicated this? I almost wonder if he was laying the groundwork to be a seller at the deadline even if they were close to a wild card (i.e., in a similar position to 2022 and 2023), only for the team to now be good enough that he's inadvertently laid the groundwork to be buyers.
Regardless of the rhetoric, I think it would make a ton of sense for the team to have a 2022-style trade deadline, assuming the standings remain about where they are between now and the end of July. The first instance i can find is a sit down with Alex Speier at the beginning of June. Add: i think laying the groundwork to sell makes a lot of sense. The playoff odds on June 6th, when i think the article ran, were down to 16 percent and dead last in the AL East. As of today they are 38 percent and third. So it was when they still looked destined for mediocrity... Yeah, I don't know, this "pick a lane" line just seems like a bad metaphor. Right now they have 38% playoff odds per fangraphs, and let's just assume their own evaluation is about the same. If the odds are the same on July 31st, why would you spend future value on a 2-in-5 chance of getting a wild card? And on the other hand, why would you simply throw away the chance to win that wild card? Taking an approach that balances present value with future value is something every one of us does every single day, and I don't know why that basic logic would go out the window when it comes to the trade deadline.
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hank
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Post by hank on Jun 28, 2024 13:04:35 GMT -5
In what way did they get worse? They had a .700 winning percentage after the trade and a .605 winning percentage for the season. They definitely got better. Can that be put 100% on the shoulders of Orlando Cabrera and Doug Monkeywrench's defense? No, I wouldn't go that far, but they didn't get worse. They got worse at shortstop. Other things got better. But now we’re really getting side tracked They got significantly better defensively at shortstop. We all loved Nomar but he was having big problems.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 28, 2024 13:12:19 GMT -5
I've noticed this too. Do you know when he first indicated this? I almost wonder if he was laying the groundwork to be a seller at the deadline even if they were close to a wild card (i.e., in a similar position to 2022 and 2023), only for the team to now be good enough that he's inadvertently laid the groundwork to be buyers.
Regardless of the rhetoric, I think it would make a ton of sense for the team to have a 2022-style trade deadline, assuming the standings remain about where they are between now and the end of July. I had taken it as they had identified that the historical records suggests that you really need to just provide players, fans and media with a clear narrative of what the team is doing, and "we sold a dollar for a hundred and six cents and also bought a quarter for just two dimes" is gonna lead to some headaches As always, playing for the PR win would be a fool's game. Imagine two other ways 2022 could have played out:
A) They "pick a lane" as buyers. That means no Abreu, Valdez, or McGuire, they lose whatever other prospect value they might have traded away, and they still would not have made the playoffs given how poorly that roster played down the stretch.
B) They "pick a lane" as sellers. They get Abreu, Valdez, McGuire, and a few other mid-tier prospects for Eovaldi and JDM, though I think their trade value was not that significant (I'm assuming in this scenario that they still don't trade Bogaerts who had a no-trade clause). Team proceeds to tank from being in the wild card race to falling well out of it - but hey, John Henry gets to stay below the LTT! This would actually have been the worst possible media narrative.
You just have to do what's best for the team and let the chips fall where they may. To their credit, I think this is generally what the front office has tried to do without worrying about the media narrative, at least since the Pablo Sandoval signing.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jun 28, 2024 13:53:11 GMT -5
Jon Heyman with his grain-of-salt trade buzz: “They [Toronto] aren’t going to want to trade Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Jr. with both having another year to go before free agency. But word is, past long-term negotiations with both stars never came close to agreement. And folks who know the pair believe the Jays have little to no chance to lock up Bichette, and maybe only a slightly better chance with Guerrero.” (I double checked and neither are clients of Heyman’s soulmate and professional pickle ball partner Scott Boras.) And: ”The Red Sox are thinking status quo, for now anyway. So Tyler O’Neill, Nick Pivetta and Kenley Jansen may stay.” 🤷♂️ nypost.com/2024/06/27/sports/blue-jays-spiraling-toward-trade-deadline-about-face/
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Post by itinerantherb on Jun 28, 2024 13:56:43 GMT -5
Agree that Craig repeating that he'll "pick a lane" virtually every time he's asked about the trade deadline is more about controlling media narrative (and perhaps distancing himself from Bloom's alleged indecisiveness/ambivalence). It doesn't commit him to actually picking a lane. If they're still in WC position or close, it's not hard to imagine that they would, for example, both sell Kenley (and perhaps O'Neill) and also add a SP.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 28, 2024 14:15:06 GMT -5
I mean, even beyond spin, you can "pick a lane" and still not find a trade partner. If the cost of what you want is too high, that doesn't mean you haven't tried to find it, y'know?
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Post by dcb26 on Jun 28, 2024 14:22:09 GMT -5
The first instance i can find is a sit down with Alex Speier at the beginning of June. Add: i think laying the groundwork to sell makes a lot of sense. The playoff odds on June 6th, when i think the article ran, were down to 16 percent and dead last in the AL East. As of today they are 38 percent and third. So it was when they still looked destined for mediocrity... Yeah, I don't know, this "pick a lane" line just seems like a bad metaphor. Right now they have 38% playoff odds per fangraphs, and let's just assume their own evaluation is about the same. If the odds are the same on July 31st, why would you spend future value on a 2-in-5 chance of getting a wild card? And on the other hand, why would you simply throw away the chance to win that wild card? Taking an approach that balances present value with future value is something every one of us does every single day, and I don't know why that basic logic would go out the window when it comes to the trade deadline. Well if Cora is to be believed, not throwing away the chance to win the wild card IS throwing away the chance to win the wild card. Responding both to this and subsequent posts about media narrative, I have no idea why every GM doesn't just say at every deadline that they are buyers. If I magically become White Sox GM in the next month, I'm telling the city of Chicago that I traded Crochet and DeJong and Robert Jr. because it makes the team better and increases our chance of winning. This is apparently what most fans and media want to hear, so just say it, and then go do whatever - by the time most people put 2 and 2 together and realize you have been lying to their face, you have already been fired or are winning and nobody cares.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 28, 2024 14:23:24 GMT -5
Breslow gives you a brain teaser of a sentence and by the time you figure it out and are ready to move on to a follow up question, he is in the wind, not to be heard from for another month. It’s like the camera cutting to commissioner Gordon from Batman
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jun 28, 2024 14:39:51 GMT -5
A Yoshida for Snell/Montgomery trade is an interesting thought. But then you’d have to find a bat. I know it’s in division and thus unlikely, but Yandy Diaz would be nice fit IMO. Diaz would give 1B/3B flexibility like Turner gave, has one more year on his deal, and his results have been great since April. I think the Rays would be looking for prospects in return for Diaz, but I really like the idea of trying to obtain him. Trading either Yoshida or O'neil would open up a spot. If a Diaz deal were done today without a corresponding move, Dom Smith, as much as I hate typing this, can go.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 28, 2024 14:55:41 GMT -5
Jon Heyman with his grain-of-salt trade buzz: “They [Toronto] aren’t going to want to trade Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero Jr. with both having another year to go before free agency. But word is, past long-term negotiations with both stars never came close to agreement. And folks who know the pair believe the Jays have little to no chance to lock up Bichette, and maybe only a slightly better chance with Guerrero.” (I double checked and neither are clients of Heyman’s soulmate and professional pickle ball partner Scott Boras.) And: ”The Red Sox are thinking status quo, for now anyway. So Tyler O’Neill, Nick Pivetta and Kenley Jansen may stay.” 🤷♂️ nypost.com/2024/06/27/sports/blue-jays-spiraling-toward-trade-deadline-about-face/Well then the Jays are pretty dumb, but I guess that also may be because the GM probably has one foot out the door and is trying to salvage his job. Still they really should tear that thing down and rebuild.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Jun 28, 2024 15:07:36 GMT -5
Law of Unintended Consequences: The new playoff format has 9 of 15 American League teams and 13 of 15 National League teams “in it” (within five games) as we approach the first of July. A lot could happen over the next month, of course, but with so many teams thinking they’re in the hunt, it could have a chilling effect on the trade deadline — there’s only so much talent to be plucked from the corpses of the White Sox and Marlins. Is that what the MLB wanted? Just a fan with no insight in to the minds of the powers to be. But, I really feel that MLB would be thrilled if 22 teams are in contention for 12 playoff spots on July 31st. That keeps more fans interested and butts in the seats. I think this is the intended consequence of expanding to 3 wild card teams. I also think it is better for long term competition if the return from seller deals at the deadline increases due to competition for their useful pieces. MLB should like that as well. Yeah. The play in game for the NBA has been a great success for this reason. It keeps fans interested and it keeps teams from tanking.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jun 29, 2024 7:51:02 GMT -5
Yorke and Early for Nate, would we do it and if so how would we align our rotation?
Houck - Eovaldi - Crawford - Bello - Criswell
With Pivetta as a dominant reliever , or
Houck - Eovaldi - Crawford - Bello - Pivetta, with Criswell as AAA depth?
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asm18
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Posts: 1,283
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Post by asm18 on Jun 29, 2024 8:07:05 GMT -5
Yorke and Early for Nate, would we do it and if so how would we align our rotation? Houck - Eovaldi - Crawford - Bello - Criswell With Pivetta as a dominant reliever , or Houck - Eovaldi - Crawford - Bello - Pivetta, with Criswell as AAA depth? I don’t know if the Rangers are officially in sell-mode just yet (although they’ve lost 5 in a row and are 8 back in the Wild Card) and I’m not sure what the asking price for Nate would be, but I like the look of that quite alot
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Post by patford on Jun 29, 2024 8:13:14 GMT -5
Let's destroy the teams future for a shot at making the playoffs ? In my opinion the best thing Bloom did was not making foolish moves at the Deadline.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jun 29, 2024 8:39:10 GMT -5
Let's destroy the teams future for a shot at making the playoffs ? In my opinion the best thing Bloom did was not making foolish moves at the Deadline. Respectfully, no one is suggesting that they fork over each and every of their best prospects for rentals to try to make the playoffs. But if they trade some of their medium assets or prospects for modest improvements to try to overcome *checks standings* a 1.5 game deficit for two different playoff spots to make the playoffs, I guarantee you they not are “destroying the team’s future.” I’ve made this point before, but at this time last year Bryan Mata, Shane Drohan, Brandon Walter and Brainer Bonaci were all in the Top 15-20 of SP rankings. We obviously don’t get the benefit of hindsight, but imagine the reaction last year if they all got moved for a rental. People would be freaking out, right? Now you probably wish they did! This is not a simple cut-and-dry process. We don’t know what trade options are fully available yet, what the trade value of our players/prospects are, or even if the Red Sox will be buyers at all. We got to get July 30th first.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jun 29, 2024 8:47:49 GMT -5
Let's destroy the teams future for a shot at making the playoffs ? In my opinion the best thing Bloom did was not making foolish moves at the Deadline. The last two trades I’ve seen proposed here involve trading Yoshida, Nick Yorke, and Connely Early, which of those exactly destroy the team’s future?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 29, 2024 8:51:57 GMT -5
Hard to say what they should do.
Looking over the team, starting pitching is finally becoming the issue that was worried about with one huge exception in that Houck has emerged as an ace.
Pivetta is what he is, a guy who can pitch a shutout and look like an ace or get bombed and look like a back end starter. He has stretches where I think, ok he has turned a corner, but he never maintains it. He's a mid rotation guy. Crawford is kind of there with him and Bello should be and isnt. Criswell has been serviceable as a 5.
They need a guy they can put 1 or 2 in the rotation but a trade for a guy like that would be painful and result in a price I'd rather not see them pay, which is why I prefer free agency.
They need defensive help in the infield. Rafael's presence in the outfield turns that unit's defense into a major strength and it keeps O'Neill who is injury prone at the DH spot whole displacing Yoshida who has done very little this year.
Hamilton is ok at SS and probably would fix the defense at 2b where Valdez has not been good. Whether the answer is more Romy at SS or go outside the organization, it's something they should look at if they want to get better. You can argue there's nobody to get or the upgrade would be minimal. It's fair to argue that theyd be competing against too many teams to improve that issue. But I think it's very hard to argue that the Sox havent been seriously undermined by their infield defense.
While all of that is true I worry about the cost and have no desire to see the Sox mortgage their future.
This is where judgment comes in and figuring out which prospects will make it and be contributors to your team. I'm not good at that - gee maybe that's why they don't pay me to do the job.
A guy like Jhostynxon Garcia spins my head around and I reflexively think dont trade the Garcia brothers. They're both in our long term plans. Maybe they are. Maybe they arent because the Sox have better options or because they'd get exposed as they go up the levels or to the majors. I wouldnt be good in a role like that for that reason.
My instinct is that in the not too distant future Mayer will be the SS, Wong is having a career year and by time Teel is really ready will be regressing a bit but should form a nice tandem and might be athletic enough to steal ABs at other positions every now and then.
I think eventually Anthony will make Abreu expendable but not now and probably not over the winter. I like Abreu but think he's a good strong half of a platoon. While he might function better as a leadoff hitter against righties with a higher OBP than Duran, with his ability to walk, I think Duran is such a spark plug you have to pencil him in as the leadoff hitter/LF until he hits free agency. I'm not sure he'll be somebody to extend longer than a season or two. I don't see him here until he's 36. In about 4 or 5 years I can see LF being open.
I dont know where Campbell fits in or if the concerns about his swing and cheating to get to pitches would expose him in the majors. I worry that in a deal Campbell would be the one who goes.
Right now 2b is wide open and Campbell has a path there and the DH spot is unsettled even with Yoshida and his contract around, not that I see Campbell as a DH. But Campbell offers RH power, something the lineup sorely lacks. They've been picking up short term stop gaps like Renfroe, Duvall, and O'Neill. Campbell could fill that role, but is he the 2b?
Or is it Grissom? The Sox paid down a good portion of Sales' deal thinking the minor league hitting track record shows a Pedroia-ish possibility offensively at 2b, although scouts are probably more luke warm towards him.
Those are the more immediate impacts I'd be hesitant to part with but I'd even struggle with trading Cespedes or Bleis as well, as both have huge potential as I wonder if Cespedes could be a middle of the order RH masher. I do wonder about Bleis, whether he's this generation's Michael Coleman or if he is somebody who eventually joins Rafaela, assuming he hits enough, and Anthony in the outfield as Duran nears the end of his time here.
There are others. Lugo could probably help next years team and Blaze Jordan might surprise but I'd find it easier to deal them than the others, but who wouldn't? I'm not sure who the must keeps are among Arias, Zannatello, or Mikey Romero. What does Coffey's power surge mean?
This is why I couldnt be GM. I'd hang on to the kids too long and a number of them woul decline and lose value and fall by the wayside. That's why somebody with far better judgment than me would need to sit in that chair. And I certainly do expect somebody with great judgment to be the decision maker. I'd just too damn emotional and I certainly dont have the crystal ball that I think a PoBO and his staff must have in making these decisions.
I'll just piss and moan here if they trade away one of my guys I dont want to lose, or do absolutely nothing when a little something might have been more helpful. Tough needle to thread.
My overall feeling is if they're in it and can find a marginal upgrade that doesnt hurt the future, do that than an impact move now that takes away a real piece of the future. Meanwhile I will hope there's a Aldo for Schwarber slam dunk type of deal to be had.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 29, 2024 9:11:10 GMT -5
Personally I hope Breslow is using this series to lube Preller up to send us something the Padres will regret for Jansen
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Post by threeifbaerga on Jun 29, 2024 10:05:57 GMT -5
Personally I hope Breslow is using this series to lube Preller up to send us something the Padres will regret for Jansen I wonder if the Mets are a player for Kenley? Diaz is hurt/ineffective so far and they're red hot.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 29, 2024 10:31:23 GMT -5
Personally I hope Breslow is using this series to lube Preller up to send us something the Padres will regret for Jansen If the Red Sox are trading Jansen away its signaling that they're not trying to win this year. I wouldn't be eager to turn over the closer's role to an inexperienced pitcher nor am I confident Hendriks is coming back at full strength If the Sox really believe that once they have Casas back they can compete with anybody then they need to have their best team out there rather than opening up holes. If a three weeks from now they are struggling, about 5 games in back of the 3rd wild card spot and more holes, whether it's from more injuries or underperformance, open up than they could reasonably plug,then sure extract big value from Kenley, but if they're seriously in it to win it without having to mortgage their future, then their best version of themselves has Jansen closing. Right now I wouldn't deal him but if things change for the worse obviously you do.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 29, 2024 10:42:22 GMT -5
Personally I hope Breslow is using this series to lube Preller up to send us something the Padres will regret for Jansen We're never gonna get a real Preller trade after how many years of fantasizing about it
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 29, 2024 11:08:20 GMT -5
Personally I hope Breslow is using this series to lube Preller up to send us something the Padres will regret for Jansen If the Red Sox are trading Jansen away its signaling that they're not trying to win this year. I wouldn't be eager to turn over the closer's role to an inexperienced pitcher nor am I confident Hendriks is coming back at full strength [...] I think it will be a shame if for the third year in a row a strong June/July makes he Red Sox not do things (or do few things) like moving Kenley for good prospects who can help us win when we are not a long shot. If Hendriks looks good (and they will know better than we) you can both move Kenley (arguably a surplus closer) for prospects and move surplus prospects for people who can help I'm both 24 and 25.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jun 29, 2024 11:10:09 GMT -5
Personally I hope Breslow is using this series to lube Preller up to send us something the Padres will regret for Jansen If the Red Sox are trading Jansen away its signaling that they're not trying to win this year. I wouldn't be eager to turn over the closer's role to an inexperienced pitcher nor am I confident Hendriks is coming back at full strength If the Sox really believe that once they have Casas back they can compete with anybody then they need to have their best team out there rather than opening up holes. If a three weeks from now they are struggling, about 5 games in back of the 3rd wild card spot and more holes, whether it's from more injuries or underperformance, open up than they could reasonably plug,then sure extract big value from Kenley, but if they're seriously in it to win it without having to mortgage their future, then their best version of themselves has Jansen closing. Right now I wouldn't deal him but if things change for the worse obviously you do. I don't care what the signal is, moving Kenley barely affects their odds this season and helps them in all the following ones. I'd only do it (at this point) if the return is better than average, but I'm all for buying and selling.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 29, 2024 11:34:52 GMT -5
If the Red Sox are trading Jansen away its signaling that they're not trying to win this year. I wouldn't be eager to turn over the closer's role to an inexperienced pitcher nor am I confident Hendriks is coming back at full strength If the Sox really believe that once they have Casas back they can compete with anybody then they need to have their best team out there rather than opening up holes. If a three weeks from now they are struggling, about 5 games in back of the 3rd wild card spot and more holes, whether it's from more injuries or underperformance, open up than they could reasonably plug,then sure extract big value from Kenley, but if they're seriously in it to win it without having to mortgage their future, then their best version of themselves has Jansen closing. Right now I wouldn't deal him but if things change for the worse obviously you do. I don't care what the signal is, moving Kenley barely affects their odds this season and helps them in all the following ones. I'd only do it (at this point) if the return is better than average, but I'm all for buying and selling. I know you dont but the manager, players, and most other fans do. Kenley is not perfect but for the most part he's done a pretty good job of not turning wins into deflating losses. Trade him and sone of those wins will turn into 9th inning losses unless Hendriks is back to his old self. Now if the Sox arent squarely in the mix, then who cares? Or if Breslow looks at the team and says, yeah it would take a miracle for this team to have a real chance to win, even if they're in the mix, then yeah, ok,iregardless of what the manager, players, and fanbase thinks. I'd be ok with that logic. But if he sees a team headed for 90 wins with Casas returning and other doable improvements, then it would make no sense to weaken the team. And the buying and selling thing gets you nowhere, just stuck in neutral, wishy washy half assing things That's why Breslow says he'll pick a lane. I'd guess that's one of the prerequisites of the job. Bloom really didnt pick a Lane and it cost him his job. Breslow will go a different road or lane most likely.
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asm18
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Post by asm18 on Jun 29, 2024 11:54:22 GMT -5
Personally I hope Breslow is using this series to lube Preller up to send us something the Padres will regret for Jansen What kind of return do you (or anyone else who wants to jump in) have in mind for Kenley
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